Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
No idea. I just hope this kick-starts a good stretch drive for the B's. So tired of win one, lose one. Win two, lose four. As long as Turco doesn't skate anywhere near Boston's net, they always have a chance.
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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
bryan11joseph
Footballguy
Looks like a decent night to have played Hockey Overs...
modogg
Footballguy
I would love for him to get in there one or 2 more times. Might even bring you out of retirement for a bit, because that over would seem to be a solid play
modogg
Footballguy
I tailed you here, not sure why the Magic were so limp in the first, but you have to figure they would bounce back in the 2nd
That was posted in January?
modogg
Footballguy
pretty crappy effort by the Devils in the 3rd. I was contemplating what i wanted more, the Rangers to come down in the standings, or for me to get a cool $50 for the under shots prop. Would have liked both, but I will definitely take this one. thanks
modogg
Footballguy
Kyle Korver sucks
The Ref
Footballguy
Dont hate free money.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
Made My homer red sox to win the WS.
10/1
10/1
modogg
Footballguy
Sorry, was completely wrong about these two scrub teams.
modogg
Footballguy
ahh, it happens. we'll get them next timeSorry, was completely wrong about these two scrub teams.
lumpy19
Footballguy
Going to take a guess here and say because you're playing most of the favorites at kurts site(usually the best line) and most of the dogs elsewhere and dogs are killing it so far this preseason. I'm having the same situation.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Fivehead's presser is on NFLN.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
My AC is on 365 days a year, especially in the bedroom. Love sleeping in an igloo.March 20th, upstate NY....and I just turned on my AC
modogg
Footballguy
going to try and ride the Flyers un5.5 tonight again, and will also grab the Flyers -1.5 +180 in case the game gets out of hand. the Flyers are -155 which i think is a safe bet too, but some strange stuff in hockey these days and the -1.5 +180 which i think is safer than usual if Bryz keeps playing like he has.
Also going to try Flyers un31.5 shots. They have went under that for a majority of their games lately, with one of the exceptions being when they played Florida last time. So i'm not positive on it, but am leaning that way
Also going to try Flyers un31.5 shots. They have went under that for a majority of their games lately, with one of the exceptions being when they played Florida last time. So i'm not positive on it, but am leaning that way
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modogg
Footballguy
Your call yesterday was a nice easy one, let's see if we can get it againLine opened at 6.5, peaked out at 7.5 about an hour ago, and is back down to 7 at a few places.1U EachUmass +7.5 -105UMass ML +295
D-BO
Footballguy
My local has it at +8 and +330 now.Your call yesterday was a nice easy one, let's see if we can get it againLine opened at 6.5, peaked out at 7.5 about an hour ago, and is back down to 7 at a few places.1U EachUmass +7.5 -105UMass ML +295
mquinnjr
Footballguy
In for 1U +8 and .5U ML @ +340 at BMMy local has it at +8 and +330 now.Your call yesterday was a nice easy one, let's see if we can get it againLine opened at 6.5, peaked out at 7.5 about an hour ago, and is back down to 7 at a few places.1U EachUmass +7.5 -105UMass ML +295
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Soldado para manana, mis amigos. +150.
Yesterday you took Mid Tenn (good call)SBR had them at +5 to +4 52%Pregame +6 to +4 44%Today UMass is:SBR +6.5 to +8 61%Pregame +6.5 to +8 74%Doesn't concern you at all?UMass up to 7.5
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Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
I've thought about this quite a bit, and I've always realized that KP rankings are subjective and based on a certain set of criteria that aren't perfect, but are probably more accurate than the objective polls or RPI or something. It's probably the best we have. With teams that are generally good, I think a slow pace works against them, and a fast pace works well for them (eg UNC). Obviously, the more possessions played between a good team and a bad team, the lower probability of an upset. With Wisky, the scores are always going to be fairly close. They're going to "hammer" teams 60-48, not 80-64.
So with KP and the betting lines being fairly close to each other during the regular season, we can assume that their methodology of setting lines is similar, if not just taking KP's work and using it as their own.
So what is KP missing here? It doesn't account for players who are out, but that works in Wisky's favor, not Cuse's. It doesn't take into account for a team making real progress and getting better (or worse) during the season, where I don't see any real advantage for either team. My hypothesis is the public underrates Wisconsin and the books are taking that into account. But I'm a n00b, so I could be completely off.
When Wisconsin played at UNC there was a huge reverse line movement. Wisconsin ended up covering losing only 60-57.
I haven't seen the line move with the Syracuse game. It seems a lot of people are down on Cuse because of Melo but like lumpy said - they are a very deep team.
KP is cool, but that is my biggest dislike of his site is that r needs to have more offensive and defensive breakouts when teams are in zone, man, press, fast break points etc - but I understand that's impossible to do with 345 teams.
I haven't seen the line move with the Syracuse game. It seems a lot of people are down on Cuse because of Melo but like lumpy said - they are a very deep team.
KP is cool, but that is my biggest dislike of his site is that r needs to have more offensive and defensive breakouts when teams are in zone, man, press, fast break points etc - but I understand that's impossible to do with 345 teams.
ChainsawU
Footballguy
It looks like you are looking at the "consensus" tab at sportsbook review and pregame dot com.It surprises me because I would have thought that those numbers would suggest that the line moved the wrong way.Yesterday you took Mid Tenn (good call)SBR had them at +5 to +4 52%Pregame +6 to +4 44%Today UMass is:SBR +6.5 to +8 61%Pregame +6.5 to +8 74%Doesn't concern you at all?UMass up to 7.5
To be honest with you I have not used these numbers before. What do these numbers say to you and why are you concerned? 
Yeah, those 2 sites. Your second paragraph is correct - those percentages suggest the line IS moving the wrong direction and that there Is some large influences siding with Drexel.It looks like you are looking at the "consensus" tab at sportsbook review and pregame dot com.It surprises me because I would have thought that those numbers would suggest that the line moved the wrong way.Yesterday you took Mid Tenn (good call)SBR had them at +5 to +4 52%Pregame +6 to +4 44%Today UMass is:SBR +6.5 to +8 61%Pregame +6.5 to +8 74%Doesn't concern you at all?UMass up to 7.5
modogg
Footballguy
i really like that Sharks one
GL sirIf the game is half as entertaining as the line movement has been then we are in for one hell of a game
Both losing. Puck lines suck ###
modogg
Footballguy
Yeah, I'm on the Flyers one, and the ML with them too. I will be salty if they end up losing the game. I would love a nice 3-1 to win for the guys, with a total of 29 shots...ETA: the 0-4 on the power play was painful. Hopefully they got a good ripping into in between periods, and they come out and put a little more pressure on Clemmenson, who they really should be scoring againstETA2: ugh, horrendous bounce on the Florida PP to give them a 2-0 lead. Going to make me grumpy boys..Both losing. Puck lines suck ###
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tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
The Sagarin ratings have Syracuse -1, which isn't far off at all from KP's Wisconsin -1. My model makes it Cuse -1. Teamrankings.com makes it Cuse -2. This game is a perfect storm, imo. Syracuse massively overrated, Wisconsin massively underrated. Wisconsin improved a ####load during the year and people still remember their early season woes. Cuse plateaued mid-season, especially since Melo isn't there now, and people still remember them being undefeated for so long. And yes, they're deep, but he's by far their most important defender. And Bo Ryan >>>> JB.
Every square I know is all over Syracuse, calling the line a gift, ridiculous, etc. That makes me love Wisconsin all that much more.
I definitely think that it closes lower than 4. If you like Wisconsin, I'd get it now. If you like Cuse, I'd wait.
I can't wait for this one.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
I just bet Draymond Green mvp +1000 for the tourney (bovada). Mich St is +684 at Pinny, if they win it, no chance does Green NOT win this award.
I actually don't think Mich St will win it but figured I had to bet it.
I actually don't think Mich St will win it but figured I had to bet it.
D-BO
Footballguy
Line opened at 6.5, peaked out at 7.5 about an hour ago, and is back down to 7 at a few places.1U EachUmass +7.5 -105UMass ML +295
good calls
modogg
Footballguy
If the game is half as entertaining as the line movement has been then we are in for one hell of a game
I enjoy the entertaining games, and the wins. Thanks bud
mquinnjr
Footballguy
If the game is half as entertaining as the line movement has been then we are in for one hell of a game
Cheers my man.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Top five call in 2012 IMO. I only did the side, but I'll take it.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Reminiscent of the Giants/Cowboys SNF call last fall to parlay the Giants +points and the over. Looked totally doomed, until the GMen onslaught came in late to cash. Thought this bet was f'ed when UMass was down by 17 at one point. Then, BOOM.Thanks Chainsaw.'Doctor Detroit said:Top five call in 2012 IMO. I only did the side, but I'll take it.'tjnc09 said:
modogg
Footballguy
Yup, Nice to be on the right side of one of these. I screwed it up a little by taking the 1st half too, but the ML cashing helped out a bunch, especially with me putting my Flyers bet in twiceReminiscent of the Giants/Cowboys SNF call last fall to parlay the Giants +points and the over. Looked totally doomed, until the GMen onslaught came in late to cash. Thought this bet was f'ed when UMass was down by 17 at one point. Then, BOOM.Thanks Chainsaw.'Doctor Detroit said:Top five call in 2012 IMO. I only did the side, but I'll take it.'tjnc09 said:
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Ugh, Comcast cable is just brutal. You literally share your connection with other people within your hub. I'm in an apartment complex, it's fast off-peak and during peak evening hours, you'd think Napster and DIVX just came out yesterday and people are going nuts downloading. Can't get FIOS, it's not wired in my building.
And Yes, I've put in incorrect wagers before. Mo, you are not alone. 
