FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (14 Viewers)

[loser]

Line opened at 6.5, peaked out at 7.5 about an hour ago, and is back down to 7 at a few places.1U EachUmass +7.5 -105UMass ML +295

good calls

Congrats. That's what I get for being bull-headed.

 

[modogg]

Mo - how do you put bets in twice so often? You using dial-up down there in Philly?

Ugh, Comcast cable is just brutal. You literally share your connection with other people within your hub. I'm in an apartment complex, it's fast off-peak and during peak evening hours, you'd think Napster and DIVX just came out yesterday and people are going nuts downloading. Can't get FIOS, it's not wired in my building. And Yes, I've put in incorrect wagers before. Mo, you are not alone.

Yeah, Comcast owns everything here, Fios is literally scared to come near the city. But unfortunately, this isn't a good excuse for me. My problem is when i am near a computer for a lot of the day, and can puts bets in the night before, and a lot during the day. Really, couldn't be dumber mistakesThe best though, is that I should let everyone know when i put a bet in twice by accident because it is great fade material. Honestly, i have to lose 75-80% of the bets i do it with.ETA: for me, the funniest thing is that i am on my computer a lot lately because i am taking online classes to get a certification. My brain can only take so much classwork these days, so i have been probably come close to my all-time high gambling this last month. I will need to figure out some different strategies for next month

 

[MarshallPlan]

Lump/anyone, anyway to kind of get off this bet? Under 2.5 #1 seeds to make final four -650. Clearly I am going to take a loss but I'd like to not lose as much (due to lose 1k if it loses).

 

[modogg]

so for those who bet hockey, i am thinking there will be some real value in betting against some of these teams that are on the bubble of making the playoffs. the one i am thinking of is San Jose, i think if they lose tonight against LA they are almost eliminated? i think a team like that, if they are eliminated, will have a hard time getting up for the rest of the year. could be good value of the books don't adjust for that, since SJ is favored quite a bit

 

[mquinnjr]

Mo - how do you put bets in twice so often? You using dial-up down there in Philly?

Ugh, Comcast cable is just brutal. You literally share your connection with other people within your hub. I'm in an apartment complex, it's fast off-peak and during peak evening hours, you'd think Napster and DIVX just came out yesterday and people are going nuts downloading. Can't get FIOS, it's not wired in my building. And Yes, I've put in incorrect wagers before. Mo, you are not alone.

Yeah, Comcast owns everything here, Fios is literally scared to come near the city. But unfortunately, this isn't a good excuse for me. My problem is when i am near a computer for a lot of the day, and can puts bets in the night before, and a lot during the day. Really, couldn't be dumber mistakesThe best though, is that I should let everyone know when i put a bet in twice by accident because it is great fade material. Honestly, i have to lose 75-80% of the bets i do it with.ETA: for me, the funniest thing is that i am on my computer a lot lately because i am taking online classes to get a certification. My brain can only take so much classwork these days, so i have been probably come close to my all-time high gambling this last month. I will need to figure out some different strategies for next month

Studying for my certification, not going out boozing on the weekends as per the usual, is how I got pulled in. Needed some excitement during those dark days. I now do both since I'm done, and love it.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

so for those who bet hockey, i am thinking there will be some real value in betting against some of these teams that are on the bubble of making the playoffs. the one i am thinking of is San Jose, i think if they lose tonight against LA they are almost eliminated? i think a team like that, if they are eliminated, will have a hard time getting up for the rest of the year. could be good value of the books don't adjust for that, since SJ is favored quite a bit

they won't be eliminated with a loss, but this is definitely a huge game for them.

 

[optionmaven]

Chainsaw FTW

Top five call in 2012 IMO. I only did the side, but I'll take it.

Reminiscent of the Giants/Cowboys SNF call last fall to parlay the Giants +points and the over. Looked totally doomed, until the GMen onslaught came in late to cash. Thought this bet was f'ed when UMass was down by 17 at one point. Then, BOOM.Thanks Chainsaw.

I had written off the ML when it started 9-0. Incredible win. Thanks,

 

[optionmaven]

Instead of doing work today, I finished a crude NHL model to look at puck lines only. I'm not playing these but Phi +180Pit +120the expected value is positive by playing both.I will miss college basketball :(

Both losing. Puck lines suck ###

Played the hawks tonight at columbus -1.5 +160 on a whim they would beat down an inferior team. Sometimes they work.

 

[modogg]

Been white hot of late - we are due for a bad night.1 unitWinn under 29.5 -125Pitt over 34.5 -130Nash over 27.52 unitAvs over 31.5Sj under 35.5 And throw in a Pitt puckline +120 for the he'll of it

Whew, Colorado by the skin of their teeth. Nice job ref, looks like you will end on the positive side if LA can hold out. My Flyers under was ruined by the Panthers being up all game, which i did not see coming. Being up 2-0 in the 1st, i knew the line was doomed. and your Nsh pick hit it out of the park, good call

 

[The Ref]

Been white hot of late - we are due for a bad night.1 unitWinn under 29.5 -125Pitt over 34.5 -130Nash over 27.52 unitAvs over 31.5Sj under 35.5 And throw in a Pitt puckline +120 for the he'll of it

Whew, Colorado by the skin of their teeth. Nice job ref, looks like you will end on the positive side if LA can hold out. My Flyers under was ruined by the Panthers being up all game, which i did not see coming. Being up 2-0 in the 1st, i knew the line was doomed. and your Nsh pick hit it out of the park, good call

 

[The Ref]

Anyone think the sharks got 24 shots in them in the third?

 

[modogg]

Anyone think the sharks got 24 shots in them in the third?

I liked the Kings over in this game too. I definitely didn't see it playing out this bad though. I wonder if taking the Sharks under for most of the rest of the season will be a good play. I know the Kings at home are monsters at not giving up shots, but this is pretty crazy

 

[The Ref]

Anyone think the sharks got 24 shots in them in the third?

I liked the Kings over in this game too. I definitely didn't see it playing out this bad though. I wonder if taking the Sharks under for most of the rest of the season will be a good play. I know the Kings at home are monsters at not giving up shots, but this is pretty crazy

Hats off to the bookmaker tonight. They have been auto posting the Sj under at +115 forthe past three months. Tonight they knew that was a bad idea.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I didn't really understand that prop. 35.5 shots against the Kings at home?

I should have bet more, but thanks for mentioning it.

 

[Raider Nation]

I didn't really understand that prop. 35.5 shots against the Kings at home?

Scratched my head at that number before any of you even played it. Nevertheless, Merry Christmas. You gotta figure the books will wise up going forward after setting a terrible line like that.

 

[The Ref]

I didn't really understand that prop. 35.5 shots against the Kings at home?

Scratched my head at that number before any of you even played it. Nevertheless, Merry Christmas. You gotta figure the books will wise up going forward after setting a terrible line like that.

If the sharks aren't playing at NJ, La, of stl 35.5 ain't that bad a line.

 

[Raider Nation]

I didn't really understand that prop. 35.5 shots against the Kings at home?

Scratched my head at that number before any of you even played it. Nevertheless, Merry Christmas. You gotta figure the books will wise up going forward after setting a terrible line like that.

If the sharks aren't playing at NJ, La, of stl 35.5 ain't that bad a line.

SB should hire you to set the SOG lines.And they should hire GooRoo for everything else, including CBB players I've never heard of.

 

[modogg]

I didn't really understand that prop. 35.5 shots against the Kings at home?

I should have bet more, but thanks for mentioning it.

I was tentative on all of them too. DD's talks about late in the season, and the crazy scores yesterday had me wondering what was going to happen tonight. Like that Winnipeg-Penguins game. I should have realized that the Pens and the Flyers may come out a little flat tonight with the big games over the weekend, unfortunately the Pens were able to bounce back and the Flyers just couldn't get another shot in the net

 

[modogg]

I didn't really understand that prop. 35.5 shots against the Kings at home?

Scratched my head at that number before any of you even played it. Nevertheless, Merry Christmas. You gotta figure the books will wise up going forward after setting a terrible line like that.

If the sharks aren't playing at NJ, La, of stl 35.5 ain't that bad a line.

SB should hire you to set the SOG lines.And they should hire GooRoo for everything else, including CBB players I've never heard of.

We need some advantages over the books. The CBB games this month have had to more than make up for any money they would have lost on these props

 

[CletiusMaximus]

Wisconsin +4.

KenPom says they win outright by 1, and I don't think that accounts for Fat Melo being out. I'm not a fan of playing sides, but 'tis the season.

Beware kenpom's Wisconsin problem

I've thought about this quite a bit, and I've always realized that KP rankings are subjective and based on a certain set of criteria that aren't perfect, but are probably more accurate than the objective polls or RPI or something. It's probably the best we have. With teams that are generally good, I think a slow pace works against them, and a fast pace works well for them (eg UNC). Obviously, the more possessions played between a good team and a bad team, the lower probability of an upset. With Wisky, the scores are always going to be fairly close. They're going to "hammer" teams 60-48, not 80-64.

So with KP and the betting lines being fairly close to each other during the regular season, we can assume that their methodology of setting lines is similar, if not just taking KP's work and using it as their own.

So what is KP missing here? It doesn't account for players who are out, but that works in Wisky's favor, not Cuse's. It doesn't take into account for a team making real progress and getting better (or worse) during the season, where I don't see any real advantage for either team. My hypothesis is the public underrates Wisconsin and the books are taking that into account. But I'm a n00b, so I could be completely off.

I'm a Wisky homer and a very bad gambler, so am really just noting (for those who were unaware) that most people think KenPom's system has a flaw when it comes to teams like Wisconsin, a flaw which he himself has acknowledged. I am very skeptical of Wisconsin (again, as a homer) because they do not have a dependable scorer. They have several inconsistent guys, one or two of whom need to get hot in any given game for them to win. The main advantage they have in this game is that they take care of the ball very well, and Cuse seems to thrive on turnovers.

 

[lumpy19]

The Sagarin ratings have Syracuse -1, which isn't far off at all from KP's Wisconsin -1. My model makes it Cuse -1. Teamrankings.com makes it Cuse -2.

This game is a perfect storm, imo. Syracuse massively overrated, Wisconsin massively underrated. Wisconsin improved a ####load during the year and people still remember their early season woes. Cuse plateaued mid-season, especially since Melo isn't there now, and people still remember them being undefeated for so long. And yes, they're deep, but he's by far their most important defender. And Bo Ryan >>>> JB.

Every square I know is all over Syracuse, calling the line a gift, ridiculous, etc. That makes me love Wisconsin all that much more.

I definitely think that it closes lower than 4. If you like Wisconsin, I'd get it now. If you like Cuse, I'd wait.

I can't wait for this one.

Really? How do you figure they're massively over-rated? All the publicity has been cuse lost melo, they're done, you're the first person I've "talked" to who thinks they're massively over-rated. I participated in several calcuttas, SU went far cheaper than every 1 and 2 and even some 3 seeds. The public opinion is that this is a flawed team without Melo.

 

[lumpy19]

Lump/anyone, anyway to kind of get off this bet? Under 2.5 #1 seeds to make final four -650. Clearly I am going to take a loss but I'd like to not lose as much (due to lose 1k if it loses).

The only 1 seed that's going to get there is kentucky, marquette beats MSU, kansas beat UNC, OSU beats cuseDid you see a #1 losing before the sweet 16?

 

[MarshallPlan]

Lump/anyone, anyway to kind of get off this bet? Under 2.5 #1 seeds to make final four -650. Clearly I am going to take a loss but I'd like to not lose as much (due to lose 1k if it loses).

The only 1 seed that's going to get there is kentucky, marquette beats MSU, kansas beat UNC, OSU beats cuseDid you see a #1 losing before the sweet 16?

Yes, I did. I think everyone is flawed in this tournament and thought it would be tons of upsets, but I was wrong. I don't particularly want to "gamble" on this one even though you think only one 1 will get there.

 

[gmbacm]

Lump/anyone, anyway to kind of get off this bet? Under 2.5 #1 seeds to make final four -650. Clearly I am going to take a loss but I'd like to not lose as much (due to lose 1k if it loses).

The only 1 seed that's going to get there is kentucky, marquette beats MSU, kansas beat UNC, OSU beats cuseDid you see a #1 losing before the sweet 16?

Yes, I did. I think everyone is flawed in this tournament and thought it would be tons of upsets, but I was wrong. I don't particularly want to "gamble" on this one even though you think only one 1 will get there.

If you want to buy some back it wont be pretty...Thu 3/22 How many #1 seeds will reach the Final Four?04:15 PM 215 Over 2.5 #1 seeds +264

 

[lumpy19]

Lump/anyone, anyway to kind of get off this bet? Under 2.5 #1 seeds to make final four -650. Clearly I am going to take a loss but I'd like to not lose as much (due to lose 1k if it loses).

The only 1 seed that's going to get there is kentucky, marquette beats MSU, kansas beat UNC, OSU beats cuseDid you see a #1 losing before the sweet 16?

Yes, I did. I think everyone is flawed in this tournament and thought it would be tons of upsets, but I was wrong. I don't particularly want to "gamble" on this one even though you think only one 1 will get there.

5dimes has the current line on this

Thu 3/22 15711 #1 seeds in Final 4 over 2½ +254 7:15PM 15712 #1 seeds in Final 4 under 2½ -307

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Lump/anyone, anyway to kind of get off this bet? Under 2.5 #1 seeds to make final four -650. Clearly I am going to take a loss but I'd like to not lose as much (due to lose 1k if it loses).

The only 1 seed that's going to get there is kentucky, marquette beats MSU, kansas beat UNC, OSU beats cuseDid you see a #1 losing before the sweet 16?

Marquette is gonna have a rough time with the Gators, that's gonna be a fine game.

 

[ChainsawU]

Chainsaw FTW

Thank you for mentioning the SBR and Pregame websites. I plan on using them in the future. What are some other resources you guys like to use?

 

[mquinnjr]

Put in for Thursday Sweet 16 already. Feeling like a parlay for the hell of it, so I'll throw a little .5U at it. 4 teamer, pays just over 11/1.

CBB[814] SYRACUSE -3½-110

CBB[815] CINCINNATI +8½-120 (B+½)

CBB[817] FLORIDA +1½-110

CBB[820] MICHIGAN STATE -4½-120 (B+½)

GLTA.

 

[lumpy19]

Kendall Marshall just tweeted that he got his cast off....a 2 day cast

 

[tjnc09]

Sean Payton has been suspended for the year... Craziness

 

[lumpy19]

tim tebow is a jet

 

[mquinnjr]

tim tebow is a jet

Thinking a solid investment is a late fall subscription to the NY Post when Tebus and Linsanity are the rotating faces of the back cover to lead of the sports section when the NBA season starts. This media frenzy will be unprecedented.

 

[mquinnjr]

Liking the Tebow to win the Madden '13 cover @ 5/1 a little more now, granted the NY market gets more heavily involved in the voting.

ETA: Now at 18/1

 

[optionmaven]

Random thought, and I know there are still alot of players here at sportsbook. They have a free contest going on for a perfect sweet 16 bracket. Collectively, couldn't we collaborate and pool our resources together and have a decent chance of winning? If there is 20 of us or so, we could take chances on upsets (that other single players) wouldn't be able to afford to do. Thoughts? Any interest?

 

[The Ref]

Random thought, and I know there are still alot of players here at sportsbook. They have a free contest going on for a perfect sweet 16 bracket. Collectively, couldn't we collaborate and pool our resources together and have a decent chance of winning? If there is 20 of us or so, we could take chances on upsets (that other single players) wouldn't be able to afford to do. Thoughts? Any interest?

In

 

[tjnc09]

Liking the Tebow to win the Madden '13 cover @ 5/1 a little more now, granted the NY market gets more heavily involved in the voting.ETA: Now at 18/1

What site is 18/1 at? Is there a minimum voting age?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

going to be tough for Tebow to make the cover while sitting on the bench or running a few gagdet plays. can't see Ryan starting him over Sanchez.

 

[lumpy19]

Random thought, and I know there are still alot of players here at sportsbook. They have a free contest going on for a perfect sweet 16 bracket. Collectively, couldn't we collaborate and pool our resources together and have a decent chance of winning? If there is 20 of us or so, we could take chances on upsets (that other single players) wouldn't be able to afford to do. Thoughts? Any interest?

I'm too lazy/stupid to do the math but my guess is you'd need way more than 20 people to make this work.Unless you all agree on one team to win it and everyone picks that one team(ex kentucky) and then you just mess with the combinations after thatETA: actually you'd probably all have to pick the same final 4 and break it down from there

 

[optionmaven]

Random thought, and I know there are still alot of players here at sportsbook. They have a free contest going on for a perfect sweet 16 bracket. Collectively, couldn't we collaborate and pool our resources together and have a decent chance of winning? If there is 20 of us or so, we could take chances on upsets (that other single players) wouldn't be able to afford to do. Thoughts? Any interest?

I'm too lazy/stupid to do the math but my guess is you'd need way more than 20 people to make this work.Unless you all agree on one team to win it and everyone picks that one team(ex kentucky) and then you just mess with the combinations after thatETA: actually you'd probably all have to pick the same final 4 and break it down from there

Yea, I have to agree with you. Not to mention that it would be a hassle to get it done in one day.

 

[tjnc09]

going to be tough for Tebow to make the cover while sitting on the bench or running a few gagdet plays. can't see Ryan starting him over Sanchez.

Don't underestimate the power of 13 and 14 year olds that all think everything is a joke.If they can vote, Tebow will get votes from his fan base and also votes from people who think his whole religious view is overplayed.At 18/1, I think it's well worth a few dollars.

 

[D-BO]

The Wings have been slumping big time and Conklin is in net tonight.

 

[Johnny Detroit]

I am one of the owners of Pregame, so any questions or anything you need just ask away

 

[zander_s]

I am one of the owners of Pregame, so any questions or anything you need just ask away

There HE is!!

 

[tjnc09]

I am one of the owners of Pregame, so any questions or anything you need just ask away

Any plans to add a log of line movements and percentages as they happen during the day? The prior day history was a nice addition.75% / 25% bet split comes up a lot. Are these dummy %s when the information isn't readily available?What happens when lines differ between the sites providing their information?Lastly, someone mentioned that they weren't sure what the %s precisely represented. Can you clear up any confusion once and for all?Thanks for keeping the info. free

 

[derek245583]

Manchester City vs Chelsea today on ESPN at 3:45 ET

Manchester City just put out a big time attacking lineup....for 2 reasons...

1) Their two best Center Backs are out...Lescott and team captain Kompany

2) They must win

Chelsea is missing its captain Jon Terry, who happens to be their rock on the back line as well...

This one is going to be up and down and the over 2.5 is the play...I expect goals from both sides and a strong push to win as both sides need it...MC to keep pace for the league title and Chelsea to keep pace for a Champions League Birth...

MCFC is also nearly unbeatable at home this season, but Chelsea is playing well and MC is missing their two studs in the back. I was too shy to bet it.

I am putting my whole account on this one...going to atone for some sins today at 3:45 #####es!!!

Had to split it into two bets after the juice moved

 

[Johnny Detroit]

I am one of the owners of Pregame, so any questions or anything you need just ask away

Any plans to add a log of line movements and percentages as they happen during the day? The prior day history was a nice addition.75% / 25% bet split comes up a lot. Are these dummy %s when the information isn't readily available?What happens when lines differ between the sites providing their information?Lastly, someone mentioned that they weren't sure what the %s precisely represented. Can you clear up any confusion once and for all?Thanks for keeping the info. free

Any plans to add a log of line movements and percentages as they happen during the day? The prior day history was a nice addition.>>>YES. We just hired a tech that has done work for many of the lines services companies and that is one of the projects.75% / 25% bet split comes up a lot. Are these dummy %s when the information isn't readily available?>>>>It comes right from the feeds. Here is an example of what it looks like RAW (this is the SIA one):<bettingtrendsfeed><eventcategory id="4"><name>Basketball</name><eventtype id="15"><name>NCAA</name><game id="385720"><name>Wisconsin v Syracuse</name><event id="2643737"><date>2012-03-22 23:15:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="10360551" percentage="46" nssnumber="813">Wisconsin</runner><runner id="10360552" percentage="54" nssnumber="814">Syracuse</runner></event><event id="2643736"><date>2012-03-22 23:15:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="10360549" percentage="77" nssnumber="813">Over</runner><runner id="10360550" percentage="23" nssnumber="814">Under</runner>What happens when lines differ between the sites providing their information?>>>>Lines or bet %? Depends on what books they use. Problem I always had is most of the books do not provide bet #s, only %. So you could have a book at 70-30 and 100 bets and another 50-50 and 10,000 bets. the average is not the true #.Lastly, someone mentioned that they weren't sure what the %s precisely represented. Can you clear up any confusion once and for all?>>>Number of bets. NOT MONEY. 100% on this. Not up for debate. I have the raw feeds and see them. It is either a % or % and #. Never $.

 

[tjnc09]

Awesome on the daily log.

On the 3rd question, yeah, if you obtain lines and betting %s from more than one site and they differ, how do you decide what is shown on Pregame?

If site A shows:

Wisconsin +4 54%

Syracuse -4 46%

And site B shows:

Wisconsin +3.5 26%

Syracuse +3.5 74%

Is there a specific site you use that takes precedent? You don't see the raw numbers so there is no way to calculate a weighted average. Even if that were possible, it couldn't be done if the lines were varied on your source sites.

 

[Angry Beavers]

Manchester City vs Chelsea today on ESPN at 3:45 ETManchester City just put out a big time attacking lineup....for 2 reasons...1) Their two best Center Backs are out...Lescott and team captain Kompany2) They must winChelsea is missing its captain Jon Terry, who happens to be their rock on the back line as well...This one is going to be up and down and the over 2.5 is the play...I expect goals from both sides and a strong push to win as both sides need it...MC to keep pace for the league title and Chelsea to keep pace for a Champions League Birth...MCFC is also nearly unbeatable at home this season, but Chelsea is playing well and MC is missing their two studs in the back. I was too shy to bet it.I am putting my whole account on this one...going to atone for some sins today at 3:45 #####es!!!Had to split it into two bets after the juice moved

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I am putting my whole account on this one...going to atone for some sins today at 3:45 #####es!!!Had to split it into two bets after the juice moved

IN (at -145)

 

[derek245583]

Off the bar....unreal