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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (14 Viewers)

'Aaron Rudnicki said:
RGIII is clearly a strong favorite at this point, but after reading this, I wonder if he can keep up what he's been doing. 70% completions is amazing. He's also rushing for more yards per game than Trent Richardson.

Andrew Luck ranks 5th in the league passing yards/game and has that signature comeback win over Green Bay on his resume. Tempted to put something on him if the odds drop.
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Luck also ranks 2nd in the leagues in pass attempts with over 44 a game. I realize this isn't completely his fault, but the 6.73 yd/att ranks 26th in the league, so his ypg aren't all that impressive in comparison, imo. 31st in completion % (53.4%), ahead of only Mark Sanchez. 31st in passer rating at 72%, with a 1:1 td/int ratio. The signature win was nice, but the data shows that he's having a relatively poor year, at least statistically. I do think he will be a top 10 qb in the league sooner rather than later, but he shouldn't be in ROY discussions at this point with those numbers. FWIW Luck was the ROY favorite at +250 or +350 pre-season. I suppose I would buy a little at +800 or so, but I think he's behind Griffin, Morris, and Richardson right now, somewhere in the mix with the likes of Weeden, Wilson, and Doug Martin for the 4-5 position.

 
OK - boys Monster middle here.

517/450 Over 40.5

22/50 Under 40.5

110/100 Under 45.5

110/100 Under 48

220/200 Under 51.5

 
It is dumb to think i should take Denver -4 and go for a HUGE middle here? I am passing as I feel pretty good here holding SD .. duh... but wondering what other folks think of trying for a middle here. :nerd:

 
'Angry Beavers said:
It is dumb to think i should take Denver -4 and go for a HUGE middle here? I am passing as I feel pretty good here holding SD .. duh... but wondering what other folks think of trying for a middle here. :nerd:
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If you make the bet do it because you think Denver will win the 2H. I don't really think you play it to "middle" because chances are your going to win the SD game side regardless.
 
Wow - not only is my middle going up in flames, but my chargers side and rivers prop are in jeopardy. What a turn around.

 
Awful 1-2 horrible break on the Manning bet, Decker could have caught the one behind the line of scrimmage and then gets flagged for some BS pass interference call. Though Manning bet as in the bag, ugh

Eric Decker (Broncos) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 4.5 (-130)Winner

Demaryius Thomas (Broncos) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 5 (-115)Loser

Peyton Manning (Broncos) Total Completions - Must Play

Over 24.5 (-130)Loser

 
'Raider Nation said:
'modogg said:
'The Ref said:
Wow - not only is my middle going up in flames, but my chargers side and rivers prop are in jeopardy. What a turn around.
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sounds like a good time to snoop around covers.com and read the mental breakdowns over there
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Already did. It's not as volcanic as you might expect.
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:lmao: I realized last week I need to slow my gambling down for a bit, and my hope was to live vicariously through some of the nuts over there. It's a shame 90% of it is b.s., but it would be fun to catch the people who put thousands on games and go 0-5
 
'Aaron Rudnicki said:
Peyton doesn't seem to have a great history against the Bolts. 1-5 in his last six meetings against them from what I saw somewhere.
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So do you make decisions based on things like this? I ask because so much historical data is offered in gambling, most of it I think is incidental. In this case you have a guy on a completely new team playing a Norv turner team in primetime. I don't think historical cover data spanning ten years, Peyton Manning or any other QBs data vs a particular team if that player has switched teams or the data has a small sample size is worth much. I think maybe historical data involving coast to coast travel can work, maybe divisional data over the past three or four years too to some degree. Also think some college trends are of good use but in the NFL so many things change so quickly, I'm not sure much of the information on background is a valuable variable.Thoughts?
 
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'Doctor Detroit said:
'Aaron Rudnicki said:
Peyton doesn't seem to have a great history against the Bolts. 1-5 in his last six meetings against them from what I saw somewhere.
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So do you make decisions based on things like this? I ask because so much historical data is offered in gambling, most of it I think is incidental. In this case you have a guy on a completely new team playing a Norv turner team in primetime. I don't think historical cover data spanning ten years, Peyton Manning or any other QBs data vs a particular team if that player has switched teams or the data has a small sample size is worth much. I think maybe historical data involving coast to coast travel can work, maybe divisional data over the past three or four years too to some degree. Also think some college trends are of good use but in the NFL so many things change so quickly, I'm not sure much of the information on background is a valuable variable.Thoughts?
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it's an interesting question. I think historical data can be useful if there are enough similarities with other variables. Take a lot of inter-divisional games. there are trends that occur in those that have held strong for a long time. I know for years it was a very solid bet to take any of the teams that had more than +4 points in the Eagles divisional games with the Redskins, Giants, and Cowboys. At least i think it did. But there are some trends that hold up more than 50% of the time, biggest question is which one's are they
 
'Doctor Detroit said:
'Aaron Rudnicki said:
Peyton doesn't seem to have a great history against the Bolts. 1-5 in his last six meetings against them from what I saw somewhere.
Click to expand...
So do you make decisions based on things like this? I ask because so much historical data is offered in gambling, most of it I think is incidental. In this case you have a guy on a completely new team playing a Norv turner team in primetime. I don't think historical cover data spanning ten years, Peyton Manning or any other QBs data vs a particular team if that player has switched teams or the data has a small sample size is worth much. I think maybe historical data involving coast to coast travel can work, maybe divisional data over the past three or four years too to some degree. Also think some college trends are of good use but in the NFL so many things change so quickly, I'm not sure much of the information on background is a valuable variable.Thoughts?
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well, I take it into consideration but I don't rely on it above all else.I do seem to recall him having trouble against 3-4 defenses during his time in Indy and I thought he looked better on the road vs at home.Even at 6 games, it's still a pretty small sample size. I did like the Chargers at home here, but not just because of that stat.
 
Is there a way to search for a timeframe in this thread?

Last year during the MLB playoffs I remember posting about weird shadows in STL, they have a 4:07EST gametime tomorrow and I'm trying to find that post but haven't had any luck. Can't remember if it was last year or 2 years ago.

Jesus this thread is massive.

Go Tigers!

 
Det up 2-0....NYY demoralized (at least the worst I've seen them)...Jeter gone....Most of their hitters on a cold streak...Hughes pitching....Other side you have...Home Field....Triple Crown Hitter....A Prince.....A team on Fire....And the topper......... Verlander.

Why am i thinking yanks?

 
'lumpy19 said:
Is there a way to search for a timeframe in this thread?Last year during the MLB playoffs I remember posting about weird shadows in STL, they have a 4:07EST gametime tomorrow and I'm trying to find that post but haven't had any luck. Can't remember if it was last year or 2 years ago.Jesus this thread is massive.Go Tigers!
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'lumpy19 said:
Going to be a fun 1st inning in the STL/Phi gameOdd time for a baseball game in STL. Some really bad shadows the first few innings. Forecast is all sun.1st inning u3 HRE -190no score -150(better prices available if you look around)I'm also playing the game total u7Putting myself out there on these 1st inning props, not often I can get more than I want down on a prop bet. I'll be crying like a little girl if I miss on these.
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I remember tailing this play. :thumbup:
 
Booking some Wong teasers now before we get line movement.

Home dogs under 3 point dogs. Cross 3,4,7. I'm in.

6 pointer for 2.3 to win 2U.

Carolina +8

Cincy +8.5

BOL guys.

 
I need to see a shrink because I must hate myself to put myself though such pain. 1 Unit U56 on tonight's game, a mid week sunbelt game where they don't play D to begin with.

 
'PatsFanCT said:
I don't follow baseball, but Detroit -180 and under 7 are the plays here, right? Sounds like a good parlay as well.
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No thoughts on the total, because Hughes is a pea-brained, unclutch spaz who could give up 8 runs in the 1st.As far as the game line goes, I'm a Yankee fan and I would start to consider them at somewhere around +430.

 
Last night i played a prop in the giants/cards game. It was how many pitchers will throw 1 pitch over/under 9.5. Todays games over/under is 6.5. Verlander goes the distance, will 5 yankkee pitchers make an appearance???

 
'optionmaven said:
Last night i played a prop in the giants/cards game. It was how many pitchers will throw 1 pitch over/under 9.5. Todays games over/under is 6.5. Verlander goes the distance, will 5 yankkee pitchers make an appearance???
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It's the first of 3 straight games so I would expect them to at least try to save their bulpens.
 
'Leroy Hoard said:
'optionmaven said:
Last night i played a prop in the giants/cards game. It was how many pitchers will throw 1 pitch over/under 9.5. Todays games over/under is 6.5. Verlander goes the distance, will 5 yankkee pitchers make an appearance???
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It's the first of 3 straight games so I would expect them to at least try to save their bulpens.
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I threw a half unit on it. Also, if you like the tigers, will Verlander be the winning pitcher -125 seems to be worth a shot. Better than -180. Weird things could happen, but i like it.
 
Sun Belt football tonight:

Full disclosure I have UNT in a teaser at +10½ in a junkie action play ending with SF -½, NYG PK, HOU PK, PIT/CIN o39½. :mellow:

ULL is bringing Terrance Broadway in at QB after losing their starter last week. He is not bad, and is a dual threat with game experience in all four games this season. I think he is why the line is so short. UNT is a running team. They have one playmaker at WR. And they convert about 30% of their third downs. They have only been over 40% on third down in one game this season. ULL brings a strong rushing defense. That looks to me like a play on ULL and the under which I parlayed. And although it took a while to admit, I was way off on UNT versus Houston. My bad for calling that, but I really did think the Cougars were that bad.

 
FWIW, Obama -200 isn't a super-great price, but I think it's as good as you're going to see between now and the election. They're going to take great care to make sure he doesn't biff another debate, and he should be able to repair some/most of the damage done by the first one. Foreign policy-wise, the Benghazi thing doesn't seem to be hurting him with moderates, and he can point to the winding down of both wars and killing OBL as big successes. He's weak on civil liberties, but Romney doesn't have much standing to go after him on that front.

I think Obama starts to pull away a bit more over the next three weeks, although not to the levels he attained pre-debate.

Full disclosure: I didn't vote for either guy. And I have a degree in PoliSci. :nerd:

 
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