FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (17 Viewers)

[Tiger Fan]

ChargersUnderHopefully I can go 0-2 and Goo will go 2-0 again.

tailing (parlayed)

 

[The Ref]

ChargersUnderHopefully I can go 0-2 and Goo will go 2-0 again.

tailing (parlayed)

Doubled down on Goos props, more or less. I also put .5 unit on under 40.5 +220. Going to hope for no first 8 min score and buy an over at about a similar amount -110.

 

[Billy Bats]

I took Denver simply because I hate River's face.

 

[The Ref]

Awesome - got 2 more units of under 45.5. Fumble -> TD.

 

[The Ref]

4 more units on under 51.5.... f it

 

[Raider Nation]

I took Denver simply because I hate River's face.

You insulted him a little bit there. A little bit.

 

[TheGooRoo]

RGIII is clearly a strong favorite at this point, but after reading this, I wonder if he can keep up what he's been doing. 70% completions is amazing. He's also rushing for more yards per game than Trent Richardson.

Andrew Luck ranks 5th in the league passing yards/game and has that signature comeback win over Green Bay on his resume. Tempted to put something on him if the odds drop.

Luck also ranks 2nd in the leagues in pass attempts with over 44 a game. I realize this isn't completely his fault, but the 6.73 yd/att ranks 26th in the league, so his ypg aren't all that impressive in comparison, imo. 31st in completion % (53.4%), ahead of only Mark Sanchez. 31st in passer rating at 72%, with a 1:1 td/int ratio. The signature win was nice, but the data shows that he's having a relatively poor year, at least statistically. I do think he will be a top 10 qb in the league sooner rather than later, but he shouldn't be in ROY discussions at this point with those numbers. FWIW Luck was the ROY favorite at +250 or +350 pre-season. I suppose I would buy a little at +800 or so, but I think he's behind Griffin, Morris, and Richardson right now, somewhere in the mix with the likes of Weeden, Wilson, and Doug Martin for the 4-5 position.

 

[The Ref]

The Punt returners are taking years off my life tonight.

 

[The Ref]

OK - boys Monster middle here.

517/450 Over 40.5

22/50 Under 40.5

110/100 Under 45.5

110/100 Under 48

220/200 Under 51.5

 

[tjnc09]

Any 2nd half team totals for Denver posted? I like The over w Peyton in the hurry up depending on the number

 

[Tiger Fan]

ChargersUnderHopefully I can go 0-2 and Goo will go 2-0 again.

tailing (parlayed)

hedged with a .4u to win 1u parlay of Den -4.5/o21.5 2hgot a 3 pt shot at the middle as well

 

[Angry Beavers]

It is dumb to think i should take Denver -4 and go for a HUGE middle here? I am passing as I feel pretty good here holding SD .. duh... but wondering what other folks think of trying for a middle here.

 

[The Ref]

Any 2nd half team totals for Denver posted? I like The over w Peyton in the hurry up depending on the number

13.5 but it quickly went up to -165

 

[tjnc09]

Any 2nd half team totals for Denver posted? I like The over w Peyton in the hurry up depending on the number

13.5 but it quickly went up to -165

Yeah, 5dimes opened at -130, changed to -160 when I went to placeCan't pay that juice

 

[The Ref]

It is dumb to think i should take Denver -4 and go for a HUGE middle here? I am passing as I feel pretty good here holding SD .. duh... but wondering what other folks think of trying for a middle here.

If you make the bet do it because you think Denver will win the 2H. I don't really think you play it to "middle" because chances are your going to win the SD game side regardless.

 

[The Ref]

Any 2nd half team totals for Denver posted? I like The over w Peyton in the hurry up depending on the number

13.5 but it quickly went up to -165

Yeah, 5dimes opened at -130, changed to -160 when I went to placeCan't pay that juice

I think Denver scores at least 14 here. I'm scared the game is going to go over 50 now.

 

[The Ref]

ChargersUnderHopefully I can go 0-2 and Goo will go 2-0 again.

tailing (parlayed)

hedged with a .4u to win 1u parlay of Den -4.5/o21.5 2hgot a 3 pt shot at the middle as well

Lets do it.

 

[The Ref]

All I can say now is thank the lord I bet out of the Under(s).

 

[Raider Nation]

Epic collapse.

 

[The Ref]

Wow - not only is my middle going up in flames, but my chargers side and rivers prop are in jeopardy. What a turn around.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

At least cover the teaser you ####### ##########s!

 

[The Ref]

At least cover the teaser you ####### ##########s!

Not a chance. It's $h!!t sandwich time for chargers backers. Yum!

 

[The Ref]

OK - boys Monster middle here.517/450 Over 40.522/50 Under 40.5110/100 Under 45.5110/100 Under 48220/200 Under 51.5

Oh well.... what could have been.

 

[Angry Beavers]

 

[Doctor Detroit]

At least cover the teaser you ####### ##########s!

Not a chance. It's $h!!t sandwich time for chargers backers. Yum!

I was talking to the Broncos...

Might join the Broncos backers, SD is due a meltdown and what better place to have it than on MNF?

 

[swirvenirvin]

Awful 1-2 horrible break on the Manning bet, Decker could have caught the one behind the line of scrimmage and then gets flagged for some BS pass interference call. Though Manning bet as in the bag, ugh

Eric Decker (Broncos) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 4.5 (-130)Winner

Demaryius Thomas (Broncos) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 5 (-115)Loser

Peyton Manning (Broncos) Total Completions - Must Play

Over 24.5 (-130)Loser

 

[modogg]

Wow - not only is my middle going up in flames, but my chargers side and rivers prop are in jeopardy. What a turn around.

sounds like a good time to snoop around covers.com and read the mental breakdowns over there

 

[Raider Nation]

Wow - not only is my middle going up in flames, but my chargers side and rivers prop are in jeopardy. What a turn around.

sounds like a good time to snoop around covers.com and read the mental breakdowns over there

Already did. It's not as volcanic as you might expect.

 

[modogg]

Wow - not only is my middle going up in flames, but my chargers side and rivers prop are in jeopardy. What a turn around.

sounds like a good time to snoop around covers.com and read the mental breakdowns over there

Already did. It's not as volcanic as you might expect.

I realized last week I need to slow my gambling down for a bit, and my hope was to live vicariously through some of the nuts over there. It's a shame 90% of it is b.s., but it would be fun to catch the people who put thousands on games and go 0-5

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Peyton doesn't seem to have a great history against the Bolts. 1-5 in his last six meetings against them from what I saw somewhere.

So do you make decisions based on things like this? I ask because so much historical data is offered in gambling, most of it I think is incidental. In this case you have a guy on a completely new team playing a Norv turner team in primetime. I don't think historical cover data spanning ten years, Peyton Manning or any other QBs data vs a particular team if that player has switched teams or the data has a small sample size is worth much. I think maybe historical data involving coast to coast travel can work, maybe divisional data over the past three or four years too to some degree. Also think some college trends are of good use but in the NFL so many things change so quickly, I'm not sure much of the information on background is a valuable variable.Thoughts?

 

[modogg]

Peyton doesn't seem to have a great history against the Bolts. 1-5 in his last six meetings against them from what I saw somewhere.

So do you make decisions based on things like this? I ask because so much historical data is offered in gambling, most of it I think is incidental. In this case you have a guy on a completely new team playing a Norv turner team in primetime. I don't think historical cover data spanning ten years, Peyton Manning or any other QBs data vs a particular team if that player has switched teams or the data has a small sample size is worth much. I think maybe historical data involving coast to coast travel can work, maybe divisional data over the past three or four years too to some degree. Also think some college trends are of good use but in the NFL so many things change so quickly, I'm not sure much of the information on background is a valuable variable.Thoughts?

it's an interesting question. I think historical data can be useful if there are enough similarities with other variables. Take a lot of inter-divisional games. there are trends that occur in those that have held strong for a long time. I know for years it was a very solid bet to take any of the teams that had more than +4 points in the Eagles divisional games with the Redskins, Giants, and Cowboys. At least i think it did. But there are some trends that hold up more than 50% of the time, biggest question is which one's are they

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Peyton doesn't seem to have a great history against the Bolts. 1-5 in his last six meetings against them from what I saw somewhere.

So do you make decisions based on things like this? I ask because so much historical data is offered in gambling, most of it I think is incidental. In this case you have a guy on a completely new team playing a Norv turner team in primetime. I don't think historical cover data spanning ten years, Peyton Manning or any other QBs data vs a particular team if that player has switched teams or the data has a small sample size is worth much. I think maybe historical data involving coast to coast travel can work, maybe divisional data over the past three or four years too to some degree. Also think some college trends are of good use but in the NFL so many things change so quickly, I'm not sure much of the information on background is a valuable variable.Thoughts?

well, I take it into consideration but I don't rely on it above all else.I do seem to recall him having trouble against 3-4 defenses during his time in Indy and I thought he looked better on the road vs at home.Even at 6 games, it's still a pretty small sample size. I did like the Chargers at home here, but not just because of that stat.

 

[Billy Bats]

I took Denver simply because I hate River's face.

You insulted him a little bit there. A little bit.

Nah just having some fun, breakin his balls a li'l bit. Then he turned around and insulted everyone else in the football world. Nice job Phil. Never bet with Rivers and Norv, it's suicide.

 

[lumpy19]

Is there a way to search for a timeframe in this thread?

Last year during the MLB playoffs I remember posting about weird shadows in STL, they have a 4:07EST gametime tomorrow and I'm trying to find that post but haven't had any luck. Can't remember if it was last year or 2 years ago.

Jesus this thread is massive.

Go Tigers!

 

[lumpy19]

Here we go, bush stadium at 5pm(pic was taken oct 3 2011)

http://tinypic.com/r/90soxc/6

Found my notes, last years game started at 5:05, this time it's 4:07.....

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Here we go, bush stadium at 5pm(pic was taken oct 3 2011)http://tinypic.com/r/90soxc/6Found my notes, last years game started at 5:05, this time it's 4:07.....

I take it you are looking at the under due to pitcher advantage?

 

[lumpy19]

Here we go, bush stadium at 5pm(pic was taken oct 3 2011)http://tinypic.com/r/90soxc/6Found my notes, last years game started at 5:05, this time it's 4:07.....

I take it you are looking at the under due to pitcher advantage?

yup, but weather calling for PM thunderstorms, going to wait til closer to game time to see what the weather looks like

 

[LOCO]

Det up 2-0....NYY demoralized (at least the worst I've seen them)...Jeter gone....Most of their hitters on a cold streak...Hughes pitching....Other side you have...Home Field....Triple Crown Hitter....A Prince.....A team on Fire....And the topper......... Verlander.

Why am i thinking yanks?

 

[ChainsawU]

Is there a way to search for a timeframe in this thread?Last year during the MLB playoffs I remember posting about weird shadows in STL, they have a 4:07EST gametime tomorrow and I'm trying to find that post but haven't had any luck. Can't remember if it was last year or 2 years ago.Jesus this thread is massive.Go Tigers!

Going to be a fun 1st inning in the STL/Phi gameOdd time for a baseball game in STL. Some really bad shadows the first few innings. Forecast is all sun.1st inning u3 HRE -190no score -150(better prices available if you look around)I'm also playing the game total u7Putting myself out there on these 1st inning props, not often I can get more than I want down on a prop bet. I'll be crying like a little girl if I miss on these.

I remember tailing this play.

 

[mquinnjr]

Booking some Wong teasers now before we get line movement.

Home dogs under 3 point dogs. Cross 3,4,7. I'm in.

6 pointer for 2.3 to win 2U.

Carolina +8

Cincy +8.5

BOL guys.

 

[The Ref]

I need to see a shrink because I must hate myself to put myself though such pain. 1 Unit U56 on tonight's game, a mid week sunbelt game where they don't play D to begin with.

 

[mquinnjr]

I need to see a shrink because I must hate myself to put myself though such pain. 1 Unit U56 on tonight's game, a mid week sunbelt game where they don't play D to begin with.

Tailing. ETA: U55.5

 

[PatsFanCT]

I don't follow baseball, but Detroit -180 and under 7 are the plays here, right? Sounds like a good parlay as well.

 

[Raider Nation]

I don't follow baseball, but Detroit -180 and under 7 are the plays here, right? Sounds like a good parlay as well.

No thoughts on the total, because Hughes is a pea-brained, unclutch spaz who could give up 8 runs in the 1st.As far as the game line goes, I'm a Yankee fan and I would start to consider them at somewhere around +430.

 

[optionmaven]

Last night i played a prop in the giants/cards game. It was how many pitchers will throw 1 pitch over/under 9.5. Todays games over/under is 6.5. Verlander goes the distance, will 5 yankkee pitchers make an appearance???

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Last night i played a prop in the giants/cards game. It was how many pitchers will throw 1 pitch over/under 9.5. Todays games over/under is 6.5. Verlander goes the distance, will 5 yankkee pitchers make an appearance???

It's the first of 3 straight games so I would expect them to at least try to save their bulpens.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

I don't follow baseball, but Detroit -180 and under 7 are the plays here, right? Sounds like a good parlay as well.

No thoughts on the total, because Hughes is a pea-brained, unclutch spaz who could give up 8 runs in the 1st.As far as the game line goes, I'm a Yankee fan and I would start to consider them at somewhere around +430.

 

[optionmaven]

Last night i played a prop in the giants/cards game. It was how many pitchers will throw 1 pitch over/under 9.5. Todays games over/under is 6.5. Verlander goes the distance, will 5 yankkee pitchers make an appearance???

It's the first of 3 straight games so I would expect them to at least try to save their bulpens.

I threw a half unit on it. Also, if you like the tigers, will Verlander be the winning pitcher -125 seems to be worth a shot. Better than -180. Weird things could happen, but i like it.

 

[ChainsawU]

Sun Belt football tonight:

Full disclosure I have UNT in a teaser at +10½ in a junkie action play ending with SF -½, NYG PK, HOU PK, PIT/CIN o39½.

ULL is bringing Terrance Broadway in at QB after losing their starter last week. He is not bad, and is a dual threat with game experience in all four games this season. I think he is why the line is so short. UNT is a running team. They have one playmaker at WR. And they convert about 30% of their third downs. They have only been over 40% on third down in one game this season. ULL brings a strong rushing defense. That looks to me like a play on ULL and the under which I parlayed. And although it took a while to admit, I was way off on UNT versus Houston. My bad for calling that, but I really did think the Cougars were that bad.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

FWIW, Obama -200 isn't a super-great price, but I think it's as good as you're going to see between now and the election. They're going to take great care to make sure he doesn't biff another debate, and he should be able to repair some/most of the damage done by the first one. Foreign policy-wise, the Benghazi thing doesn't seem to be hurting him with moderates, and he can point to the winding down of both wars and killing OBL as big successes. He's weak on civil liberties, but Romney doesn't have much standing to go after him on that front.

I think Obama starts to pull away a bit more over the next three weeks, although not to the levels he attained pre-debate.

Full disclosure: I didn't vote for either guy. And I have a degree in PoliSci.