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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (12 Viewers)

'ChainsawU said:
I'm fading Houston without Charles Sims again this week and putting my money on Rakeem Cato against Houston's 112th ranked passing defense.

Rakeem CatoSPLITS CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RATSeason 343 494 3506 69.4 7.10 72 29 8 20 145.2
University of Houston running back Charles Sims did not practice Wednesday and is "very, very doubtful" for Saturday's game at Marshall, coach Tony Levine said. link
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MARSHALL -3½ -110330/300

ETA: The [Houston Cougars] took a huge blow both on and off the field when star cornerback D.J. Hayden suffered a near fatal injury after colliding with a teammate in practice. The injury required immediate surgery and Hayden will miss the rest of the season. He was leading the league with four interceptions, two of which he returned for six points. link
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OK who else tailed? This went from -105 to -115 over the last hour at sportsbook.
 
'modogg said:
'got_nugs said:
'got_nugs said:
I'll let someone smarter than myself research this, just something that I heard today and remember from last year. The Denver Nuggets are something like 42-0 SU and 39-3 ATS in their last 42 games when playing a team (not sure if that is all teams or only east coast teams) coming off a back to back. The Heat have struggled recently out west (again only based on my recollection from watching almost every Heat game for years) and never seem to win in Denver, esp without any days off. They play the Clippers tonight at 10:30 and Denver tomorrow. I heard this on Miami radio today, just thought i'd pass it on to someone who can verify what I heard. Could be a good play ATS against Miami tomorrow.That said the Heat will prolly win by 30.
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Just an update, the information is this:In the past few years, all teams heading from the west coast after a game to Denver to play a game the next night: Denver straight up is 42-0 and ATS is 39-3. Wade is hurting and may not play. Line is Denver -3.5
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better than any reason i have, i'm in
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Pulled you down the rabbit hole on this one, my bad. 1st time Miami has won in Denver since 2002. Oof
 
little dissapointed in no Friday night posting by derek for bellator. just snuck one play in, small guy:

Rich Clementi +115

 
LAS VEGAS SHARPS REPORT - NFL WEEK 11

PHILADELPHIA AT WASHINGTON:

This line hasn’t shown any movement. But, it’s sitting on Washington -3.5, which tells you a lot about sharp sentiment by itself. You regulars know that any line that sits for an extended period of time a half point away from a key number like three or seven is telling you something. If sharps liked Philadelphia (and backup quarterback Nick Foles), they would have acted right away. A three-point finish in the NFL is common. The fact that they DIDN’T do that tells you sharps believe Washington is the better team. They’ll wait and see if the public drops the line to three. If not, sharps will either pass the game or invest in Washington on game day. The total has dropped 46 to 44 because of pessimism about Foles after his poor showing as a backup vs. Dallas last week.

GREEN BAY AT DETROIT:

Green Bay opened at -3 on the road, and was quickly bet up to -3.5, where it’s stayed since. Once again, no sharp interest on the dog at +3.5. Sharps believe the favorite is the right side in the big picture, and they’ll grab a field goal if they can get it. Note that both Green Bay and Washington had byes last week. Sharps have had good success backing rested teams this season. The opening total of 51 has been bet up to 51.5 or 52 in this indoor attraction.

ARIZONA AT ATLANTA:

We did see support for a dog around a key number here. Arizona opened at +10.5. They were bet down to +10, with some places even showing +9.5 as the support continued. That’s not a universal move though…and we’re hearing that some sharps would consider Atlanta at -9.5 because of their quarterback advantage. For the third straight game, that’s a bye team from last week getting early support, as the Cardinals had the week off. The total has come down from 45.5 to 44

TAMPA BAY AT CAROLINA:

Sportsbooks will have to decide how to handle this one. There’s been sharp interest in surging Tampa Bay at the opener of -1. Any move higher puts the game in the basic strategy teaser window for underdog Carolina. Games landing on 3 and 7 are so common that sharps would gladly be on Tampa Bay -1 straight and Carolina +7.5 in two-team teasers. The total is up from 47.5 to 48.5 because Tampa Bay has been playing high scoring games lately and weather isn’t likely to be a negative factor for offenses.

CLEVELAND AT DALLAS:

Dallas opened in the teaser window at -8, which isn’t something you see too much of any more. There has been some underdog interest on Cleveland, the fourth and final bye team from last week. Maybe sportsbooks aren’t afraid of teasers because they’re hoping fresh Cleveland can spring an upset. No interest from sharps on the total yet. If we don’t mention a total in future games, it’s because sharps have left that option alone. The clearest sentiment in these first few games is that sharps are betting the rest teams off their byes.

NY JETS AT ST. LOUIS:

We might have a tug of war spot here, with the sharps generally liking St. Louis at -3 over the imploding Jets, but some buyback hitting the market after moves to Jets +3.5. We’ll see if the weekend brings more bad news from the embattled Jets locker room. We hearing there’s more general support for the Rams, but the percentage players like defensive dogs at +3.5 no matter what the players are saying to reporters.

INDIANAPOLIS AT NEW ENGLAND:

Oddsmakers opened New England at -9.5, just a half point below the key number of 10. Did sharps bet the favorite? No! They hit the Colts, bringing the number down to +9 in many spots. It’s very unlikely we’d see a drop to New England -8.5 even if sharps LOVED the Colts because that would put the Pats in the teaser window. All squares betting teasers would want New England -2.5, and books don’t want that kind of exposure. If the public comes in on the Patriots on game day enough to drive the number up to 10, sharps would take the Colts aggressively.

JACKSONVILLE AT HOUSTON:

Houston opened at a whopping -16 points. There are some old school sharps who bet every double digit underdog on principal. They were joined by others who thought Houston might be flat off the big Sunday Night victory in Chicago. The number is currently Houston -14.5. or -15 depending on where you shop. The Over/Under has dropped two points from 42.5 down to 40.5 because Jacksonville's offense is so bad, and because Houston has played quick, conservative games as big favorites earlier this season.

CINCINNATI AT KANSAS CITY:

No line movements here off openers of Cincinnati -3.5 and 43.5. As we said at the top, a lack of line movement at a line like -3.5 is telling you a lot. Sharps want no part of the home dog Chiefs or they would have gladly taken the hook. This may be the least bet NFL game of the weekend.

NEW ORLEANS AT OAKLAND:

The home dog Raiders earned sharp support at the opener of +6.5. The line is now +4.5 or +5 in most places. We’re hearing that this is mostly a bet against the Saints porous defense…figuring that Oakland can either cover the game clean or sneak through the back door in garbage time.

SAN DIEGO AT DENVER:

Peyton Manning and the Broncos have earned sharp respect with their continued success. We’ve heard many were impressed with the two straight road covers in Cincinnati and Carolina in what has mostly been a year of the underdog in the NFL. San Diego opened at -7, and was bet up to -8. This creates a headache for sportsbooks because that puts Denver in the teaser window in a spot that would appeal very strongly to the public.

BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH:

There’s been a huge move in this game because of Ben Roethlisberger’s injury. The earliest offshore numbers before the injury showed Pittsburgh -3. When it looked like he’d be out, the Vegas openers were near pick-em. Sharps have pounded that all the way to the critical number of Baltimore -3 and passed it. We’re now seeing Baltimore -3.5 on the ROAD in a big divisional game. That tells you how little the sharps think about Byron Leftwich. The total has fallen to 40.5 from early numbers around 45 because Leftwich’s scoring potential seems limited…and because Pittsburgh has been playing low scoring home games all season.

We’re planning a special report Monday to discuss the Chicago-San Francisco game. That one is still off the board in many places because of injuries suffered by both starting quarterbacks last week. Alex Smith is now expected to play for the 49ers, while Jay Cutler is expected to be out for the Bears. We are aware that some sharps are looking at that Under given the caliber of defenses on the field.
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Early Sharps Report this week.... I like it.

Just bought my weekly Oregon 1H and Oregon over 1H for 2 units each. Just no reason to not play this until they go 0-2.

 
'Doctor Detroit said:
'The Ref said:
Early Sharps Report this week.... I like it.
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Not me but I'm fine with it if he bumps it tomorrow at about 11pm EDT. If he doesn't, my feelings will be thoroughly hurt. :kicksrock:
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Saturday night when I'm drunk and 2 new people are fighting in the College Football thread feels more traditional to me.Get your bets in on who's going to be fighting this week. I got Nutter Butter vs. scottybo
 
'The Ref said:
'Guster said:
'Good said:
The NCAA just reinstated Shabazz Muhammad. I would run, do not walk, and get UCLA +200 to win the P12.
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Done :thumbup:
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OK. I'm in.Who is Shabazz Muhammad?
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#1 recruit in this year's class, could play in the NBA this year. Scoring SF. NCAA had him hung up on "eligibility" issues, and it looked like he might have been toast for this year. Then this article ran, and he's cleared the next day.http://www.latimes.com/sports/college/basketball/la-sp-1115-ucla-shabazz-ncaa-20121115,0,1557715.story
 
'Good said:
'The Ref said:
'Guster said:
'Good said:
The NCAA just reinstated Shabazz Muhammad. I would run, do not walk, and get UCLA +200 to win the P12.
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Done :thumbup:
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OK. I'm in.Who is Shabazz Muhammad?
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#1 recruit in this year's class, could play in the NBA this year. Scoring SF. NCAA had him hung up on "eligibility" issues, and it looked like he might have been toast for this year. Then this article ran, and he's cleared the next day.http://www.latimes.com/sports/college/basketball/la-sp-1115-ucla-shabazz-ncaa-20121115,0,1557715.story
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Put the bet in at olympic at +200. Its now dropped to 125. Notice southern cal has dropped to +125 there too, yet they are +800 at sportsbook. Which book is wrong here? :unsure:
 
'lumpy19 said:
'tjnc09 said:
'gmbacm said:
From radio...Colin Cowherd's Blazing 5: Bucs -1.5, Saints -4.5, Browns +8, Lions +3.5, Steelers +3.5Sharps disagree with him on Bucs and Saints. They love Steelers and Browns. Slight agreement on Lions.
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The Sharps playing the Raiders all make sense until they lose by 20
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:football: raiders my biggest bet of the week, got +6 at open sunday night and added more at +5RAIDER NATION!!!
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Oakland has given up a mere 97 points in their last two games. Good thing the Saints struggle on offense. :scared:
 
'Raider Nation said:
'lumpy19 said:
'tjnc09 said:
'gmbacm said:
From radio...Colin Cowherd's Blazing 5: Bucs -1.5, Saints -4.5, Browns +8, Lions +3.5, Steelers +3.5Sharps disagree with him on Bucs and Saints. They love Steelers and Browns. Slight agreement on Lions.
Click to expand...
The Sharps playing the Raiders all make sense until they lose by 20
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:football: raiders my biggest bet of the week, got +6 at open sunday night and added more at +5RAIDER NATION!!!
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Oakland has given up a mere 97 points in their last two games. Good thing the Saints struggle on offense. :scared:
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I read the four year old son of the defensive coordinator died of a sudden illness. Depressing news but probably explains some of thAt
 
'The Ref said:
Hawaii, the worst team in the NCAA, on the road in 36 degree weather in slightly windy conditions.The bet sounds square, but laying the 22 here I just love. I think Air force Kills them just like Fresno and Nevada did.
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Of course, Hawai'i scores on their initial drive for the first time all season.
 
'tjnc09 said:
'Raider Nation said:
'lumpy19 said:
'tjnc09 said:
'gmbacm said:
From radio...Colin Cowherd's Blazing 5: Bucs -1.5, Saints -4.5, Browns +8, Lions +3.5, Steelers +3.5Sharps disagree with him on Bucs and Saints. They love Steelers and Browns. Slight agreement on Lions.
Click to expand...
The Sharps playing the Raiders all make sense until they lose by 20
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:football: raiders my biggest bet of the week, got +6 at open sunday night and added more at +5RAIDER NATION!!!
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Oakland has given up a mere 97 points in their last two games. Good thing the Saints struggle on offense. :scared:
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I read the four year old son of the defensive coordinator died of a sudden illness. Depressing news but probably explains some of thAt
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Yeah, the day before the last game. Sad. But how much of an impact does a D-line coach have on game day?All of this falls on Allen. But just imagine how bad it would have been if he wasn't a defensive specialist!!!!111!
 
'Raider Nation said:
'The Ref said:
Hawaii, the worst team in the NCAA, on the road in 36 degree weather in slightly windy conditions.The bet sounds square, but laying the 22 here I just love. I think Air force Kills them just like Fresno and Nevada did.
Click to expand...
Of course, Hawai'i scores on their initial drive for the first time all season.
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Incredible.I think if Ref and I both really like a line, it never wins. Just thought about this today. Air Force not looking too sharp so far.
 
'gmbacm said:
'Good said:
'The Ref said:
'Guster said:
'Good said:
The NCAA just reinstated Shabazz Muhammad. I would run, do not walk, and get UCLA +200 to win the P12.
Click to expand...
Done :thumbup:
Click to expand...
OK. I'm in.Who is Shabazz Muhammad?
Click to expand...
#1 recruit in this year's class, could play in the NBA this year. Scoring SF. NCAA had him hung up on "eligibility" issues, and it looked like he might have been toast for this year. Then this article ran, and he's cleared the next day.http://www.latimes.com/sports/college/basketball/la-sp-1115-ucla-shabazz-ncaa-20121115,0,1557715.story
Click to expand...
Put the bet in at olympic at +200. Its now dropped to 125. Notice southern cal has dropped to +125 there too, yet they are +800 at sportsbook. Which book is wrong here? :unsure:
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Both? :lmao: I'd give USC a 5% chance of winning the Pac-12, maybe.
 
'Doctor Detroit said:
'Raider Nation said:
'The Ref said:
Hawaii, the worst team in the NCAA, on the road in 36 degree weather in slightly windy conditions.The bet sounds square, but laying the 22 here I just love. I think Air force Kills them just like Fresno and Nevada did.
Click to expand...
Of course, Hawai'i scores on their initial drive for the first time all season.
Click to expand...
Incredible.I think if Ref and I both really like a line, it never wins. Just thought about this today. Air Force not looking too sharp so far.
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Its early enough that this could turn around. Hawaii O is looking like Hawaii again. Lets see if the Air Force O can make the Hawaii D remember they are the Hawaii D.
 
Those of you watching the AF game on a DVR, rewind it to that last punt return.

#37 for Hawaii makes THE. WORST. attempt at a tackle I've ever seen from anyone on any level of football.

 
'Raider Nation said:
Those of you watching the AF game on a DVR, rewind it to that last punt return.

#37 for Hawaii makes THE. WORST. attempt at a tackle I've ever seen from anyone on any level of football.
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Not watching, but can it be worst than Cromartie last year against Tebow? I would rather a guy just miss, than run away from tackling
 
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