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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (6 Viewers)

Went through all the bowl games. Of the 34 I predicted a number for every side and 28 of the 34 totals.

There are a few I already like if the line swings in the direction I want it and also took a look at all the confidence pool possibilities. Need to research some more on five or six games tomorrow, should be seeing sides in the morning.

 
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'Doctor Detroit said:
Went through all the bowl games. Of the 34 I predicted a number for every side and 28 of the 34 totals. There are a few I already like if the line swings in the direction I want it and also took a look at all the confidence pool possibilities. Need to research some more on five or six games tomorrow, should be seeing sides in the morning.
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Which game is looking like the highest total?Washington/Baylor last year was a blast!
 
'Raider Nation said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
Went through all the bowl games. Of the 34 I predicted a number for every side and 28 of the 34 totals. There are a few I already like if the line swings in the direction I want it and also took a look at all the confidence pool possibilities. Need to research some more on five or six games tomorrow, should be seeing sides in the morning.
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Which game is looking like the highest total?Washington/Baylor last year was a blast!
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I have Nevada/Arizona as the highest total, Cuse/WVU and OU/TAMU close behind.ETA: and UCLA/BaylorETA2: Biggest favorite should be Okie State, then Techa Tech and Fresno State
 
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German Hockey: Hamburg Freezers -180

:bag: There's really nothing out there. Venezuelan Baseball isn't nearly juicy enough. We also have Mark Williams -275 in UK Snooker...

 
Not sure who has Bovada but they had a Shwartz prop bet on there, it was basically even odds if he will coach the lions the first game of next yr.

Unless Ford coraks he should be a lock.

 
Two balanced and efficient offenses vs two statistically below average defenses who both mainly struggle defending the pass. Clock should stop frequently in this one if both offenses do what they do best vs what both defenses do worst, which is key to setting a total. Both Eli and Griffin are efficient passers and protect the ball well, making it less likely that a high # of turnovers will occur...line moved from -2.5 to -3 on every out I know of, and I've seen Redskins +3 as high as -125...sure seems they don't want this thing moving to +3.5...

...under Shanahan regime, the 'skins play the Giants tough the last 2 years, and now the 'skins have a real QB. Won both home and away games last season, and lost on a final seconds bomb @ Giants earlier this season. 'Skins D was decimated by injuries early on, has gelled both statistically and on the field as the season has gone on, still below average but trending up, and playing much better as an aggregate. 'Skins should be able to keep this one close, at the very least...

...'skins getting 3 or more is line value, IMO, as I think they could win a close game outright. ML +115 small, +3/-125 :blech: medium, +10/O43 (7 pointer) large.

Good Luck!

 
'swirvenirvin said:
Not sure who has Bovada but they had a Shwartz prop bet on there, it was basically even odds if he will coach the lions the first game of next yr.Unless Ford coraks he should be a lock.
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I agree 100% with this. You have to suck repeated years (or decades) in a row to get the axe from the "Ford without a better idea."
 
'nittanylion said:
Two balanced and efficient offenses vs two statistically below average defenses who both mainly struggle defending the pass. Clock should stop frequently in this one if both offenses do what they do best vs what both defenses do worst, which is key to setting a total. Both Eli and Griffin are efficient passers and protect the ball well, making it less likely that a high # of turnovers will occur...line moved from -2.5 to -3 on every out I know of, and I've seen Redskins +3 as high as -125...sure seems they don't want this thing moving to +3.5......under Shanahan regime, the 'skins play the Giants tough the last 2 years, and now the 'skins have a real QB. Won both home and away games last season, and lost on a final seconds bomb @ Giants earlier this season. 'Skins D was decimated by injuries early on, has gelled both statistically and on the field as the season has gone on, still below average but trending up, and playing much better as an aggregate. 'Skins should be able to keep this one close, at the very least......'skins getting 3 or more is line value, IMO, as I think they could win a close game outright. ML +115 small, +3/-125 :blech: medium, +10/O43 (7 pointer) large.Good Luck!
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Got +2.5 with a local. WONG territory on the side, gents. Agree with all the above on the total, going 6 pointer Skins +8.5/O44 for a unit.BOL, guys.
 
'Doctor Detroit said:
'Raider Nation said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
Went through all the bowl games. Of the 34 I predicted a number for every side and 28 of the 34 totals. There are a few I already like if the line swings in the direction I want it and also took a look at all the confidence pool possibilities. Need to research some more on five or six games tomorrow, should be seeing sides in the morning.
Click to expand...
Which game is looking like the highest total?Washington/Baylor last year was a blast!
Click to expand...
I have Nevada/Arizona as the highest total, Cuse/WVU and OU/TAMU close behind.ETA: and UCLA/BaylorETA2: Biggest favorite should be Okie State, then Techa Tech and Fresno State
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Highest posted total is Ore/K-State (79) which I had 5th (70), UCLA/Baylor #2 at 76 (I had 72), and UA/Nev is #3 at 74 the exact number I thought. I had the TAMu/OU game right, 72. Biggest favorites so far are Oklahoma State (-18), Florida and FSU (-14), Techa Tech (-13),Fresno St (-12)I had Okie State -16 the two Florida schools -12/13 and Techa Tech/Fresno -14. Don't have my sheet with me for the others, will look through everything else later.
 
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'Doctor Detroit said:
'Angry Beavers said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
'Angry Beavers said:
CHALK MONDAY :banned:
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Hardly no hoops games at all. :kicksrock:
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'sdp1226 said:
Sunday was brutal.

Need to get extra CHALKY tonight.
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:kicksrock: You are both right - ended up for the weekend by one whole unit but it could have been so much better... and so much worse....maybe we need Chalk Thursday :excited: - Denver at Oakland :excited: :banned:
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Yeah that Denver/Oakland game is as chalky as NFL games come.Wait?
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:yes:
 
'Leroy Hoard said:
'swirvenirvin said:
Not sure who has Bovada but they had a Shwartz prop bet on there, it was basically even odds if he will coach the lions the first game of next yr.Unless Ford coraks he should be a lock.
Click to expand...
I agree 100% with this. You have to suck repeated years (or decades) in a row to get the axe from the "Ford without a better idea."
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What is this his 4th year right? And it will only be a yr since he took them to the playoffs after a long drought no way he is gone unless he quits. Sucks to tie up money for 300+days tho
 
Ok, I need some help here from guys who have gambled a long time or have systems of any kind. Basically I need some help understanding what I have here. You can respond here or PM me if you like, would really appreciate it.

OK.

The following bowls I got within 3 points of the total or 1 point of the side:

New Mexico (exact on both)

Potato (exact on total)

Poinsetta (exact on total, 1 point off side)

New Orleans (3 off total)

Vegas (2 points off total)

Hawaii (Exact spread)

Pizza (1 point of total)

Military (2 points off total, 1 point off side)

Belk (Exact total, 1 point off side)

Holiday (2 off total)

Indy (3 off total)

Car care (1 off total, 1 off side)

Bell (exact total, 1 off side)

BW3 (2 off total, 1 off side)

Music city (exact total, 1 off side)

Liberty (1 off total)

dallas (1 off total)

Outback (one off side, 2 off total)

capital one (exact total, 1 off side)

Rose (3 off total, .5 off side)

Orange (1 off total)

Sugar (Exact total)

Fiesta (Exact side)

Cotton (Exact total)

Go daddy (1 off total)

So 25 Bowls fit that criteria (34 occurrences), of those 11 of them I got very close on the total and side. There was no computer or formulas, just several rankings, SOS, and best wins considered and a best guess based on what I know about handicapping.



Bowl games where I was off by more than 4 off side, or more than 6 off total

Go Daddy (7 off side including wrong favorite)

Cotton (4 off side)

Compass (12 over total)

Gator (6 off side and incorrect favorite)

Chick-fil-a (5.5 off side)

Alamo (12 under total)

Holiday (6 points off side)

Beef (6 points off side)

Hawaii (10 under total)

New Era (9 under total)

So ten there. All the others were in the 2-3.5 side range or 4-6 total range (which to me is just beyond the estimated standard deviation, but within the range of acceptance). The ten above are the ones I'd call outliers.

Here is the issue, I don't know what to do with this data.



28 totals predicted:

22 within 3 points

24 with 6

4 9 points or worse

34 sides predicted:

12 within 1 point

28 within 3.5 points or better

6 four points or worse

5 six or seven points off

What do you guys think? Is this just incidental data or is there something there I can ride? Play all the outliers for sure? Do nothing? Find a new hobby? Answers appreciated.

 
Some of these teams have up to six weeks off between games. In that time most have finals, Christmas at home, and chasing #####. Most of these bowl games mean nothing to the individual player. That's why handicapping bowl games is so hard. I like your data. Look up past bowl performance by teams that have had disappointing seasons, possible coaching changes, number of seniors playing for draft position versus avoiding injury...see where I am going?

Again, I like your data. In the past, I have played under totals to some modicum of success, because offense tends to suffer from lack of practice more than defense. Again, along that thought, play the better defensive team sides. It's tough to handicap. Vegas makes most of its money on these games, because they are smart, smarter than you, and smarter than me.

I know you don't particularly like me, and you probably think that I have no idea what I am talking about. That's cool, and I understand.

For what it's worth.

 
'Treynwreck3 said:
Some of these teams have up to six weeks off between games. In that time most have finals, Christmas at home, and chasing #####. Most of these bowl games mean nothing to the individual player. That's why handicapping bowl games is so hard. I like your data. Look up past bowl performance by teams that have had disappointing seasons, possible coaching changes, number of seniors playing for draft position versus avoiding injury...see where I am going?

Again, I like your data. In the past, I have played under totals to some modicum of success, because offense tends to suffer from lack of practice more than defense. Again, along that thought, play the better defensive team sides. It's tough to handicap. Vegas makes most of its money on these games, because they are smart, smarter than you, and smarter than me.

:confused: I know you don't particularly like me, and you probably think that I have no idea what I am talking about. That's cool, and I understand.

For what it's worth.
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Double not true.Thanks for the info. I get killed on bowls but I still love it and it is a huge challenge. I think I'll play the outliers for X amount each and see what the results are at the end. Also think any of the games prior to X-Mas are a bit easier to judge as my bowl campaigns tend to start unraveling on or about January 1st.

Also think unders are the way to go but I hate losing unders way more than I hate losing overs. That Temple/Wyoming under last year still makes me mad, back-doored with 3 seconds left.

Update: Only 9 outliers, I thought the UCLA spread was 10 when in fact it is 1.5. I had UCLA -4 so that one is in the no play zone. And I refuse to play WVU under, so that one is out too. 8 outliers I'll try as a test, of those three or four I might play separately because I really do like them beyond the numbers.

 
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well mother F'er. I didn't get to join in on parlay Monday because i didn't feel like tossing money away on it. Well mother F' it if i wouldn't have hit it. I was going to take:

Was

Utah +2

Charlotte

and Nebraska

that Utah play was total luck with Utah hitting a 3 with 2 seconds left to lose by 1. They were up all game though, so it kind of evens out. Have no idea what it would have paid out, but probably was an ok pay out. Really should have figured this would happen. At least i played Nebraska, Utah +2 and Washington by themselves

 
and, i know there is love for Luck for MVP, but i can't see how RGIII doesn't win it. and i think he deserves it more too, people are talking up Luck, but the Colts have an easier schedule with some bad secondarys. I guess RGIII does too with the Cowpokes and Eagles playing horrendous now, but i still think RGIII gets it

 
anyone else having problems with RB?

I have had 2 winners that have disappeared from the page. Latest one was a parlay on the Skins and the under tonight.

 
'Doctor Detroit said:
Ok, I need some help here from guys who have gambled a long time or have systems of any kind. Basically I need some help understanding what I have here. You can respond here or PM me if you like, would really appreciate it.

OK.

The following bowls I got within 3 points of the total or 1 point of the side:

New Mexico (exact on both)

Potato (exact on total)

Poinsetta (exact on total, 1 point off side)

New Orleans (3 off total)

Vegas (2 points off total)

Hawaii (Exact spread)

Pizza (1 point of total)

Military (2 points off total, 1 point off side)

Belk (Exact total, 1 point off side)

Holiday (2 off total)

Indy (3 off total)

Car care (1 off total, 1 off side)

Bell (exact total, 1 off side)

BW3 (2 off total, 1 off side)

Music city (exact total, 1 off side)

Liberty (1 off total)

dallas (1 off total)

Outback (one off side, 2 off total)

capital one (exact total, 1 off side)

Rose (3 off total, .5 off side)

Orange (1 off total)

Sugar (Exact total)

Fiesta (Exact side)

Cotton (Exact total)

Go daddy (1 off total)

So 25 Bowls fit that criteria (34 occurrences), of those 11 of them I got very close on the total and side. There was no computer or formulas, just several rankings, SOS, and best wins considered and a best guess based on what I know about handicapping.



Bowl games where I was off by more than 4 off side, or more than 6 off total

Go Daddy (7 off side including wrong favorite)

Cotton (4 off side)

Compass (12 over total)

Gator (6 off side and incorrect favorite)

Chick-fil-a (5.5 off side)

Alamo (12 under total)

Holiday (6 points off side)

Beef (6 points off side)

Hawaii (10 under total)

New Era (9 under total)

So ten there. All the others were in the 2-3.5 side range or 4-6 total range (which to me is just beyond the estimated standard deviation, but within the range of acceptance). The ten above are the ones I'd call outliers.

Here is the issue, I don't know what to do with this data.



28 totals predicted:

22 within 3 points

24 with 6

4 9 points or worse

34 sides predicted:

12 within 1 point

28 within 3.5 points or better

6 four points or worse

5 six or seven points off

What do you guys think? Is this just incidental data or is there something there I can ride? Play all the outliers for sure? Do nothing? Find a new hobby? Answers appreciated.
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Good stuff.I think they key thing to keep in mind is that not all 1 point differences are created equal. You project -27, and the line is -28? No play. But projecting one point off a 3 or a 7 is a much different story.

Also, keep in mind that a one point difference is bigger in a low-scoring game like Alabama/ND then it is K-State/Oregon. For obvious reasons.

So my advice I guess is to not just play A and B but not C and D, but to evaluate each separately keeping those criteria in mind.

 
Do I middle ND +10.5 (-120) with my Alabama -8.5 two units, or let it ride? Kind of inclined towards the latter, as I'd prefer to just root for a side instead of a couple of numbers to hit. Do I hope it hits 11?

 
'Good said:
Do I middle ND +10.5 (-120) with my Alabama -8.5 two units, or let it ride? Kind of inclined towards the latter, as I'd prefer to just root for a side instead of a couple of numbers to hit. Do I hope it hits 11?
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A novice gambler here, so I may be completely off base. But I was thinking about this the other night, why not just middle some of your bet. Say you put 5 units on Bama at -8.5 and then throw 2 units on ND at +10.5. You obviously want Bama to still win but still get some of the middling effect. I guess it isn't a complete middling b/c if ND covers the 8.5, you lose money but I feel like you can get the best of both worlds in terms of rooting for a team but having the middling effect. Or is this just a sucker bet with the vig biting into your profit.
 
'sporthenry said:
'Good said:
Do I middle ND +10.5 (-120) with my Alabama -8.5 two units, or let it ride? Kind of inclined towards the latter, as I'd prefer to just root for a side instead of a couple of numbers to hit. Do I hope it hits 11?
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A novice gambler here, so I may be completely off base. But I was thinking about this the other night, why not just middle some of your bet. Say you put 5 units on Bama at -8.5 and then throw 2 units on ND at +10.5. You obviously want Bama to still win but still get some of the middling effect. I guess it isn't a complete middling b/c if ND covers the 8.5, you lose money but I feel like you can get the best of both worlds in terms of rooting for a team but having the middling effect. Or is this just a sucker bet with the vig biting into your profit.
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I'm guessing that getting the 9 and the 10 in a low scoring game is +EV if middled. I'm guessing that the two most likely outcomes for this game are ALA 7 and ALA 10, although I could be wrong...
 
Over the years I have liked betting 6-6 teams. One more game means a winning or losing season, small incentive but real when you are also getting points in most cases.

 
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