FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (6 Viewers)

[money.never.sleeps]

Wow, I haven't seen Kobe dunk like that in long time. Stole the ball on a Chris Paul pass and then dunked over him, with an elbow to the face.

You play the Clippers?

 

[BRONG]

Wow, I haven't seen Kobe dunk like that in long time. Stole the ball on a Chris Paul pass and then dunked over him, with an elbow to the face.

You play the Clippers?

LARGE.

 

[Raider Nation]

Wow, I haven't seen Kobe dunk like that in long time. Stole the ball on a Chris Paul pass and then dunked over him, with an elbow to the face.

You play the Clippers?

LARGE.

Is this basketball or something?

 

[Frostillicus]

Tomorrow: I'm talking myself into the Rutgers moneyline when it comes out.

 

[sporthenry]

OU is pretty pathetic. Guess I finally get to see why Landry isn't much of an NFL prospect. He has 32 relatively meaningless completions. All check downs and doesn't seem to know how to run a team. Team is down 3 scores and continually looks over to the sideline for any and all adjustments. Not to mention the obvious way to read the snap count but I guess that falls more on Stoops. But 4th down and you don't even take a hit to try to make a completion.

 

[Raider Nation]

Tomorrow: I'm talking myself into the Rutgers moneyline when it comes out.

 

[Clorox]

Anyone see THE REF just trip on the turf????

Must have been thinking too hard about the scope of GR's client base...

 

[Angry Beavers]

I really hope that missed extra point does not screw the over 35 2nd half

 

[Guster]

Anyone see THE REF just trip on the turf????Must have been thinking too hard about the scope of GR's client base...

Saw that

 

[BRONG]

Anyone see THE REF just trip on the turf????Must have been thinking too hard about the scope of GR's client base...

I rewound it twice, so funny.

 

[money.never.sleeps]

Anyone see THE REF just trip on the turf????

yup.. drunk already along with the TV crew.. I just heard Manziel compared with Dennis Dickson, Gale Sayers, and David Robinsonapparently his hands and feet are also abnormally huge

 

[sporthenry]

Anyone see THE REF just trip on the turf????

yup.. drunk already along with the TV crew.. I just heard Manziel compared with Dennis Dickson, Gale Sayers, and David Robinson

That sideline reporter was pretty ridiculous.

 

[Frostillicus]

Tomorrow: I'm talking myself into the Rutgers moneyline when it comes out.

NOTE: I'm talking hoops. I have no idea who plays in football tomorrow. This is in case Rutgers plays football tomorrow.

 

[Clorox]

^ Hilarious!!! Are you sure they did not also compare him to Andre Ward or Carver?

And Brong, god bless dvr for stuff like that! I watched a couple times as well, his damn hat fell off

 

[BRONG]

Does Bama go to 10 is the question.

 

[Clorox]

Tomorrow: I'm talking myself into the Rutgers moneyline when it comes out.

NOTE: I'm talking hoops. I have no idea who plays in football tomorrow. This is in case Rutgers plays football tomorrow.

Pitt vs. Ole Miss

 

[Abraham]

Does Bama go to 10 is the question.

10 is rough. 10.5 is evil.

 

[Treynwreck3]

Maybe I am missing something, but every way I look at it, A&M beats Oklahoma like a drum.

So you're betting it then?

I've got my head kicked in for less...It sits at A&M -3. I am in for 2 units.FWIW: I went to Texas, so it's in my blood to hate both these teams. I just think that tonight A&M kicks OU's butt.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Very sorry to the family and friends impaxted by Hurricane Manziel. Thanks to Frosty for covering my best with Memphis and Georgia.

Now to Sport Henry. Listen you ignorant ####, take your Landry Jones hate to the CFB thread you ignorant knob. Even better go to the Shark Pool and give a handjob to Sho nuff of Da Guru, they are about your speed.

YIC,

DD

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Maybe I am missing something, but every way I look at it, A&M beats Oklahoma like a drum.

So you're betting it then?

I've got my head kicked in for less...It sits at A&M -3. I am in for 2 units.FWIW: I went to Texas, so it's in my blood to hate both these teams. I just think that tonight A&M kicks OU's butt.

And you wonder why no one likes you. First bet you've placed all year, 1-+ good job ####sack.

 

[tjnc09]

Wow, I haven't seen Kobe dunk like that in long time. Stole the ball on a Chris Paul pass and then dunked over him, with an elbow to the face.

You play the Clippers?

LARGE.

Warriors are 2-0 against the Clippers, getting 6 pts tomorrow after they play the Lakers? Tell me that isn't free $

 

[Treynwreck3]

Hide the women and children for DD's OU rant when he gets back.

LIKE A DRUM.

 

[BRONG]

 

[Raider Nation]

DD, -fe requests your presence in the CFB thread.

Have fun!

 

[Doctor Detroit]

DD, -fe requests your presence in the CFB thread.Have fun!

Tomorrow for that ####stain.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Add the Sooners to the ######## list

 

[modogg]

i'd really like to punch that Manziel kid in the face. Not even so much because he cost me money, he just looks like he is just overdue for a nice jab right in the nose

 

[money.never.sleeps]

Harrington about to have an orgasm talking about Manziel and how close he was to Tuiasosopo's record.. hopefully he also gets drafted by the Raiders so I never have to hear about him again

 

[got_nugs]

i'd really like to punch that Manziel kid in the face. Not even so much because he cost me money, he just looks like he is just overdue for a nice jab right in the nose

After what I saw tonight...you'd probably swing and miss.

 

[Tiger Fan]

Russell Wilson is the correct answer.

Thanks for the responses re: Manziel. So no chance he's another Russell Wilson?

The correct answer is "let's see what happens when the SEC has a chance to catchup on a year of game tape". Maybe he's Flutie, maybe he's Wilson, maybe he's Rivers...who knows...but he won't be in the NFL for 2 more seasons. Let's see what happens next year.

 

[urbanhack]

i'd really like to punch that Manziel kid in the face. Not even so much because he cost me money, he just looks like he is just overdue for a nice jab right in the nose

 

[modogg]

i'd really like to punch that Manziel kid in the face. Not even so much because he cost me money, he just looks like he is just overdue for a nice jab right in the nose

what, you guys have never seen an out of shape 30+ year-old drunken fool go after some 19 year-old kid because he cost him money??and on a side note, i really don't like college football. This whole betting on the bowl games is for the birds

 

[Ashy Larry]

Tomorrow: I'm talking myself into the Rutgers moneyline when it comes out.

NOTE: I'm talking hoops. I have no idea who plays in football tomorrow. This is in case Rutgers plays football tomorrow.

If you like Rutgers, take the points I realize it's January 5th and Pitt is yet to go on the road, but Rutgers got spanked by the only two decent opponents they've played.

 

[Raider Nation]

i'd really like to punch that Manziel kid in the face. Not even so much because he cost me money, he just looks like he is just overdue for a nice jab right in the nose

what, you guys have never seen an out of shape 30+ year-old drunken fool go after some 19 year-old kid because he cost him money??and on a side note, i really don't like college football. This whole betting on the bowl games is for the birds

C'mon mo... don't be so hard on yourself. You're not drunk.

 

[modogg]

i'd really like to punch that Manziel kid in the face. Not even so much because he cost me money, he just looks like he is just overdue for a nice jab right in the nose

what, you guys have never seen an out of shape 30+ year-old drunken fool go after some 19 year-old kid because he cost him money??and on a side note, i really don't like college football. This whole betting on the bowl games is for the birds

C'mon mo... don't be so hard on yourself. You're not drunk.

true that, but I haven't thrown anything resembling a punch in about 2 years. I am pretty sure i would pull something, lat maybe, half-way through the punch. Then the being hard on myself could come into play, as i sit there sobbing in front of this kid as him and his d-bag friends can point and laugh at the old man :(

 

[Raider Nation]

i'd really like to punch that Manziel kid in the face. Not even so much because he cost me money, he just looks like he is just overdue for a nice jab right in the nose

what, you guys have never seen an out of shape 30+ year-old drunken fool go after some 19 year-old kid because he cost him money??and on a side note, i really don't like college football. This whole betting on the bowl games is for the birds

C'mon mo... don't be so hard on yourself. You're not drunk.

true that, but I haven't thrown anything resembling a punch in about 2 years. I am pretty sure i would pull something, lat maybe, half-way through the punch. Then the being hard on myself could come into play, as i sit there sobbing in front of this kid as him and his d-bag friends can point and laugh at the old man :(

My joke went sailing over mo's head like McGwire taking batting practice at Fenway.

 

[lumpy19]

Trae Golden (TENN) UNDER 1.5 made 3s -155 at sportsbetting

Does anyone else play at sportsbetting? Not even so much as an attempt.

i dont - might have to look into it.One other thing for when you go tout. I'm a financial controller and I cut my teeth in the billing and revenue accounting world. In not sure what the size and scope of your client base is, but I'd be willing to discuss handling billing and collection tracking for you. I'm always looking for bookkeeping work.

Bravo bravo

 

[Frostillicus]

Very sorry to the family and friends impaxted by Hurricane Manziel. Thanks to Frosty for covering my best with Memphis and Georgia.Now to Sport Henry. Listen you ignorant ####, take your Landry Jones hate to the CFB thread you ignorant knob. Even better go to the Shark Pool and give a handjob to Sho nuff of Da Guru, they are about your speed. YIC,DD

YES

 

[mquinnjr]

Trae Golden (TENN) UNDER 1.5 made 3s -155 at sportsbetting

Does anyone else play at sportsbetting? Not even so much as an attempt.

i dont - might have to look into it.One other thing for when you go tout. I'm a financial controller and I cut my teeth in the billing and revenue accounting world. In not sure what the size and scope of your client base is, but I'd be willing to discuss handling billing and collection tracking for you. I'm always looking for bookkeeping work.

Bravo bravo

 

[mquinnjr]

Oh, so I passed on action for the TAMU/OU game because I was so worn out from work this week, I knew I'd fall asleep during the game on the couch, which I did. Capped that correctly.

So I turn on ESPN, and the Lakers/Clippers are on. Sure, why not throw 0.5U on the Lakers to win in the 4th quarter at +300 before I go back to bed?

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Premier League plays mainly on Saturdays? Looking for a big dog that has an outside shot of winning or drawing.Mquinnjr or GPJ?I tried to get into it this season, and I believe this will help me do so.

This weekend is FA Cup action, which is a single-elim knockout tournament that has rounds interspersed throughout the year. It's fun because you get to see a lot of big, well-known teams take on 3rd/4th division clubs, often-times at their ####ty stadiums (home and away teams are drawn randomly). This is a great spot to catch a steamer after lineups come out (around 9 AM Eastern, most games kick at 10 AM), because it's really unknown which teams are going to sit which starters. If you just want some barely-informed longshots, these might be fun to watch on FirstRow.Mini-upset: Luton +270 to winHey, I've heard of Manchester United!: West Ham +425 to winSwing for the fences: Burton Albion +1400 to win

 

[mquinnjr]

Premier League plays mainly on Saturdays? Looking for a big dog that has an outside shot of winning or drawing.Mquinnjr or GPJ?I tried to get into it this season, and I believe this will help me do so.

This weekend is FA Cup action, which is a single-elim knockout tournament that has rounds interspersed throughout the year. It's fun because you get to see a lot of big, well-known teams take on 3rd/4th division clubs, often-times at their ####ty stadiums (home and away teams are drawn randomly). This is a great spot to catch a steamer after lineups come out (around 9 AM Eastern, most games kick at 10 AM), because it's really unknown which teams are going to sit which starters. If you just want some barely-informed longshots, these might be fun to watch on FirstRow.Mini-upset: Luton +270 to winHey, I've heard of Manchester United!: West Ham +425 to winSwing for the fences: Burton Albion +1400 to win

I tend to stick to the EPL games, since even if they're mis-matches there's usually some sort of situation to exploit and at least it's a team in the top level. But, if you want to watch in HD for an action bet, Southampton +440 is hosting Chelsea -165 with a +265 Draw. Betting the win and draw on Southampton would give you 1.65U profit on the draw and 3.4U profit on the W, and the odds aren't so long. The other two big dogs (Watford @ Manchester City +1500 and Coventry City @ Tottenham +1600), I can't see in HD/on TV anyways and on the road, I'll pass.Forum play? I'm down a little with some pending NFL bets, little torn.

 

[Raider Nation]

It seems like everybody... and I mean EVERYBODY, from "experts" to co-workers to ham n' eggers like us on a message board LOVES the Packers and Bengals. I honestly don't recall one person saying they like the Vikings or Texans.

You know what that means, right? Vikings and Texans to the bank!

 

[mquinnjr]

It seems like everybody... and I mean EVERYBODY, from "experts" to co-workers to ham n' eggers like us on a message board LOVES the Packers and Bengals. I honestly don't recall one person saying they like the Vikings or Texans.

You know what that means, right? Vikings and Texans to the bank!

This was my greatest fear.

 

[Raider Nation]

Sharps Report ... Playoffs Edition

CINCINNATI at HOUSTON

Opening Line: Houston by 5, total of 44

Lowest Line: Houston by 4

Current Line: Houston by 4.5, total of 43

Games in the pocket between the three and the seven on the Vegas board sometimes take awhile to get settled because there’s no clear “percentage” play involving a key number. If betting action is dormant, sportsbooks are known to move the line a half point in either direction just to see if they get any nibbles. Sportsbooks can’t make money if nobody’s betting!

Generally speaking, sharps aren’t enthusiastic about either team here. Those who preferred the dog took Cincinnati at the opener because they didn’t think slumping Houston would go up any higher than five. Those who don’t trust Cincinnati made small investments when the line dropped down to the four.

Sharps did prefer the Under at 44 because we have decent defenses on the field, and because Houston’s offense has slumped in recent weeks. They may not be any additional move downward because weather won’t help defenses in this stadium that has a retractable roof.

You can expect sharps to fade any public moves, particularly if squares hit the favorite and drive the number up to five or six. This doesn’t seem likely. Sportsbooks themselves would be comfortable with a position against a publicly bet favorite.

MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY

Opening Line: Green Bay by 9, total of 46

Current Line: Green Bay by 7.5, total of 46

There are some stores that opened Green Bay at -8 rather than -9. The earliest on the board had the nine. Sharps hit the dog right away, encouraging stragglers to post an eight. Sharps have still bet the dog at +8, and may continue to do so all the way down to the key number of seven. There may not be a sense of urgency to do that for dog lovers here because the public may bet the favorite on game day. Remember, this is a night game, so there’s plenty of time for square action to influence the number.

We’re hearing from our sources that sharps are very much impressed with Adrian Peterson’s ability to control a game at the moment. And, they’re also skeptical about Green Bay’s pass protection. Minnesota just missed covering on this field a few weeks ago, and is playing better now overall than they were back then. The Vikings are the sharp side at anything over a touchdown.

The total hasn’t moved even though the game is being played outdoors in cold weather. Sharps believe Green Bay is comfortable in these conditions. And, they’ve seen that the Vikings can put points on the board with their ground-based attack. If the possibility of precipitation enters the forecast, you will see some Under money hit the board. No sharp interest at the number of 46 with the current forecast.

INDIANAPOLIS at BALTIMORE

Opening Line: Baltimore by 6.5, total of 46.5

Current Line: Baltimore by 7, total of 47

Normally sharps prefer underdogs of more than a field goal in the playoffs because the games are likely to be competitive…and because sportsbooks typically shade lines higher based on public preferences. In this case, we had a line move UP anyway. If you were watching the lines this week, you know that the interest in Baltimore was keyed to the Ray Lewis announcement that this would be his final season. Sharps often “bet the news” when it happens just to have position before the public. If the Lewis announcement motivates the Ravens, they’re likely to play better than had been previously expected.

Is this the sharp view?

We’re hearing that much of that sharp money was more about position than sentiment for the Ravens. Sharps figured the public would buy into the motivation angle, possibly causing the line to move beyond the seven and set up middle possibilities around a key number.

*An early bet on Baltimore -6.5 can be bought back with Indy +7 even if the public doesn’t take the bait. Sharps who liked Indy can even come back over the top for more units than their initial investment.

*An early bet on Baltimore -6.5 can be really valuable if Indy +7.5 or higher becomes available. Sharps who like the dog can come back over the top, and would sweep all bets if the Ravens won by exactly seven.

There are some sharps who are skeptical about Andrew Luck’s ability to avoid turnovers on the road. They’re sticking with Baltimore -6.5.

There’s no interest on the total yet. Weather is supposed to be relatively clear, with wind in the single digits in mph. Sharps would look at the Under if the forecast changes to something that would help defenses more.

SEATTLE at WASHINGTON

Opening Line: Seattle by 1.5, total of 45

Current Line: Seattle by 3, total of 46

This was the biggest sharp move of the weekend in the NFL, with the Wise Guys hitting Seattle at the opener…then driving it all the way up to the key number. The lack of buy-back on Washington as a home dog at the key number tells you there’s a lot of support for the Seahawks. This is not shaping up as a tug-of-war situation between different factions of sharps with the favorite at -2.5 and the dog at +3.

Oddsmakers knew the sharps had great respect for Seattle. They thought opening the Seahawks as a road favorite would be enough to stem the tide of sharp money. Turns out the line needed to be at a field goal.

Who will the public take here? Typically squares prefer the favorites. But, that may be tougher for them here because it’s a ROAD favorite laying points to a celebrated home quarterback. It’s possible that the public will come in on Washington before kickoff. And, since this is the last game of the weekend, it will be the most bet game of the weekend because of the additional lead-in time. We COULD see a tug-of-war between sharps and squares if public sentiment is on the dog. The Wise Guys would gladly fade any move back to -2.5.

The best expectation is for a heavily bet game that sportsbooks hope doesn’t land exactly on Seattle by three.

The total has been bet up from 45 to 46 because weather conditions should be fine (the game’s not far from Baltimore!), and both offenses have established that they can move the ball with their exciting young quarterbacks. There are concerns about the field surface in Washington though, which has prevented a move any higher than 46 as of yet.

 

[Raider Nation]

BBVA COMPASS BOWL

MISSISSIPPI vs. PITTSBURGH

Opening Line: Mississippi by 3, total of 52

Current Line: Mississippi by 3.5, total of 54

The earliest stores actually opened at Ole Miss -2. Sharp money on the favorite was apparent right away, which pushed the most common opener to -3. Sharps continued to play the favorite at a field goal, driving the line to the -3.5 that you see right now. There was a bit of see-sawing at some locales that saw a continued back-and-forth between the three and 3.5. That suggests a tug-of-war going on between different factions who have different preferences.

*Ole Miss money is in at -2, -2.5, and -3.

*Pittsburgh money is in at +3.5

If the public bets this game, which is far from likely because of its relatively small stature, it will likely be on the favorite from the SEC over the underdog from the Big East. Even though Louisville of the Big East shocked Florida of the SEC in the Gator Bowl, there’s still a general skepticism about the Big East from the gambling public.

The total has jumped two points from the opener. We’re hearing that this is due to sharp response to what’s been happening to SEC defenses in the postseason. They weren’t as good as expected, and tweaks to math models after bowl results suggested Over bets were in order. Weather isn’t likely to be too big a factor in this outdoor game in Birmingham. Though, there is a slight chance for light rain.



GO-DADDY BOWL

ARKANSAS STATE vs. KENT STATE

Opening Line: Arkansas State by 3, total of 61

Peak Line: Arkansas State by 5

Current Line: Arkansas State by 3.5, total of 61

Arkansas State and other Sun Belt teams were getting early support when lines first went up. Arkansas State’s typical peak was at -5, though some outliers went as high as -5.5 while others didn’t even reach the five. Enthusiasm for the Sun Belt began to wane when Western Kentucky lost to Central Michigan as a favorite, and Louisiana-Monroe was routed by Ohio as a favorite. Those were also Sun Belt-MAC battles like this one.

The settled, widely available line, is still above the opener, but below the peak. Sharps who liked the favorite have most of their money in at -3 and -3.5. Sharps who liked the dog are in at +5, +4.5, and +4. Our sources say that the dog is better represented in sharp cirlces…but that there’s really not much passion for this game amongst the other betting options this weekend.

The total hasn’t been rock solid. The weather currently looks like it will be very nice for this outdoor Sunday Night game in Mobile.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

As a gambler, alumnus and donor to the University of Oklahoma and as a great human I'd like to apologize once again for the performance tonight. Heads will roll!!!!!

 

[BRONG]

It seems like everybody... and I mean EVERYBODY, from "experts" to co-workers to ham n' eggers like us on a message board LOVES the Packers and Bengals. I honestly don't recall one person saying they like the Vikings or Texans.

You know what that means, right? Vikings and Texans to the bank!

Green Bay maybe, but Cinci??? I don't think that's true at all. Want a good indicator? Go to Leroy's Shart Pool. BassnBrew's thread has 93 replies. Houston selections are edging out Cinci. Yeah, I just counted every one. Covers also says the race is dead even, although I don't know how accurate that info is. And the line movement certainly doesn't suggest EVERYBODY is on Cinci, either.I hear you on the Pack...smelly. Don't want to go through BnB's super scientific poll again but most are on GB. (Hou/Cinci was easy to count because it's the first selection on each post, ha!) However, Covers does show 66% Minnie.

ETA: Screw it, I went through the thread again. EVERYONE is on GB. The votes are around 67 to 23 so over 70%. Granted, the line he used is 7.5 so let's knock that consensus down a little.

Conclusion? Minnie is your Backdoor Saturday Night Special...ripping out the hearts of drunks in bars across America tomorrow night. HTH. Also, insomnia sucks. TIA.

 

[Clorox]

I'm getting analysis paralysis for these WC games. I was almost locked in on Cincy, GB, Bal, and Was. Now I'm doubting all of them. FML. I can seriously come up with reasons why all 8 teams will cover.

 

[BRONG]

I'm getting analysis paralysis for these WC games. I was almost locked in on Cincy, GB, Bal, and Was. Now I'm doubting all of them. FML. I can seriously come up with reasons why all 8 teams will cover.

Those were my four and I like where I'm at. I did tease GB and Bal however, to -2 and -1/2. Waited on Cinci and grabbed it at 5. Will add to Wash if things go well and will also take the under in that one...the only total I liked.