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Thanks, man.I like the Lakers on the money line. I think they see that Boston is taking no prisoners and will want to gear up to that mentality for their eventual matchup.Anyone got a nice side/total/prop you'd care to share for the Lakers @ Suns tonight?I didn't follow the NBA this season as closely as some of you guys.
this has sucker bet written all over it, but I think i will play a little teaser (i hate 4-pt. teasers, they seem like such a waste): Lakers +5.5 and Celtics -3. Played it for peanuts because it looks like a sucker betThanks, man.I like the Lakers on the money line. I think they see that Boston is taking no prisoners and will want to gear up to that mentality for their eventual matchup.Anyone got a nice side/total/prop you'd care to share for the Lakers @ Suns tonight?I didn't follow the NBA this season as closely as some of you guys.
Unreal. I went a pathetic 1-7-1 on my medium plays, and made money on the day by going 3-0 on the big ones.The way this day started out, I would have said there was NO chance I'd be up right now.Raider Nation said:Just got done with two hours of homework and I LOVE Sunday's card, which is probably a bad sign.
Medium-size plays
Reds -125 :(
Giants -110 :(
Orioles -110 :(
Blue Jays -120
Cubs/Rangers U 9 (+105) PUSH
Red Sox/Phillies U 8½ (-110) :(
Marlins/White Sox U 8½ (-115) :(
Brewers/Twins OVER __ *whatever it is* :(
-Parlay-
Royals -145
Dodgers -163 :(
Bigger plays
Padres +130 -- Mat Latos is simply better than Felix right now. Look at the King's numbers instead of his name and the price on this game looks out of whack. You're telling me that I can get the better pitcher AND the better offense at plus $$$? Sign me up.
Giants/Athletics U 7½ -- it was good to me Saturday... back to the well.
-Parlay-
Rays -185
Cardinals -167
Greek transfers free to alot of books, 5dimes, betjam, bookmaker, matchbook and probably lots of others, those are the only ones I've transferred with. Bookmaker blows for baseball plus once you send money there they charge up to $200 to transfer it out. 5dimes and greek have a good relationship, funds back and forth, no charge and maybe a 1x rollover? Double check on the rollover but it's baseball season, you don't need that money anywhere else til August. Playing baseball lines at greek -110/-110 is making things harder, betjam opens the night before at -105/-105. It seems crazy that this little bit helps but baseball is a grinding sport, 2 cents on a line here and there adds up at the end of a long season. I'm telling you it makes a HUGE difference. I know you put a lot of work into handicapping the lines, make sure when you bet you're getting the best line.Raider Nation said:
Gotcha, good stuff. Appreciate the heads up.
I went to congratulate you on the big plays, i tailed the both of those so that worked out pretty well.Unreal. I went a pathetic 1-7-1 on my medium plays, and made money on the day by going 3-0 on the big ones.The way this day started out, I would have said there was NO chance I'd be up right now.Raider Nation said:Just got done with two hours of homework and I LOVE Sunday's card, which is probably a bad sign.
Medium-size plays
Reds -125 :(
Giants -110 :(
Orioles -110 :(
Blue Jays -120
Cubs/Rangers U 9 (+105) PUSH
Red Sox/Phillies U 8½ (-110) :(
Marlins/White Sox U 8½ (-115) :(
Brewers/Twins OVER __ *whatever it is* :(
-Parlay-
Royals -145
Dodgers -163 :(
Bigger plays
Padres +130 -- Mat Latos is simply better than Felix right now. Look at the King's numbers instead of his name and the price on this game looks out of whack. You're telling me that I can get the better pitcher AND the better offense at plus $$$? Sign me up.
Giants/Athletics U 7½ -- it was good to me Saturday... back to the well.
-Parlay-
Rays -185
Cardinals -167
Now do I blow the profit on the Yanks or Lakers???
Very nice, mo!See what the Flyers are laying tomorrow???
Someone is expecting the Habs to lay down.
I'm really, really good at props.Bay has 1 HR coming into this game. He has 2 HRs TONIGHT!
yeah, that is surprising. I have some hedge opportunity since i have the Flyers to win the East. I don't think the Flyers will play too over-confident (which is what they seemed to do in Game 3), but i don't think the Habs come in belly-up either. I might play the infamous Habs +160 and Flyers -1.5 +180. As long as the Flyers don't win by 1 goal, i can make a little. if they win by 1 goal then i will be pissy, but at least win a little bit because i have some money on them winning the East. not sure what i'll play yetVery nice, mo!See what the Flyers are laying tomorrow???
I can't answer for total bases, I've never had much success with those bets. For the props they offer at sportsbook.com that's the right logic. Last year sportsbook would hang the same lines on guys everyday without factoring in the pitcher(it seemed that way anyway), this year it's a different animal. IMO the props at sportsbook.com are much sharper this year, I've only seen a few ridiculous lines. They're still profitable but nothing like they were last year.I don't usually back the stud pitchers, the prices are too ridiculous. I may throw together a parlay with a bunch of favorites for fun but that's about it. During baseball I'm trying to keep my bets at + odds or as little - as possible. I think it's just too hard to win over a long season betting -140, -150 on baseball teams.I have a question for GR, lump, and any of you other prop guys. It's gonna be long, so please hang in there.
Let's say you have one of the really excellent pitchers going on a certain day. Lincecum, Wainwright, Halladay... whomever. Now assume that excellent pitcher is facing a painfully average to below-average pitcher.
You can do one of two things.
1) Lay heavy chalk on the ace pitcher to win the game
or
2) Utilize that ace pitcher for prop bets
Example: Halladay is facing some journeyman pitcher for the Reds.
You wager on all three Phillies hitters... Howard, Utley and Werth against Votto, Bruce and Phillips.
When you lay -300 or so on Philly, the other pitcher could throw the game of his life... or the Phillies bullpen could blow a save for Doc... or most of the Phillies bats might not show up and they leave a ton of baserunners on, etc.
But using those three players in total base props, one would think there is an EXCELLENT chance of going at least 2 for 3, and with those props you likely won't be laying more than -130. Two for three gets the job done every time, and you don't have to sweat out the heavy lumber you would need to lay on the Phils winning.
Yes, I'm rambling. But is this line of thinking logical or not?
Sportsbook.com still likes to throw the Bourn NO RBI out there at -180 (I think 3 times last 2 weeks), and occasional Ichiro NO RBI. Bourn has a whopping 5 RBI's all year. Just have to be patient on the props, but its definitely not like last year. But money is to be made on the props still.I can't answer for total bases, I've never had much success with those bets. For the props they offer at sportsbook.com that's the right logic. Last year sportsbook would hang the same lines on guys everyday without factoring in the pitcher(it seemed that way anyway), this year it's a different animal. IMO the props at sportsbook.com are much sharper this year, I've only seen a few ridiculous lines. They're still profitable but nothing like they were last year.I don't usually back the stud pitchers, the prices are too ridiculous. I may throw together a parlay with a bunch of favorites for fun but that's about it. During baseball I'm trying to keep my bets at + odds or as little - as possible. I think it's just too hard to win over a long season betting -140, -150 on baseball teams.I have a question for GR, lump, and any of you other prop guys. It's gonna be long, so please hang in there.
Let's say you have one of the really excellent pitchers going on a certain day. Lincecum, Wainwright, Halladay... whomever. Now assume that excellent pitcher is facing a painfully average to below-average pitcher.
You can do one of two things.
1) Lay heavy chalk on the ace pitcher to win the game
or
2) Utilize that ace pitcher for prop bets
Example: Halladay is facing some journeyman pitcher for the Reds.
You wager on all three Phillies hitters... Howard, Utley and Werth against Votto, Bruce and Phillips.
When you lay -300 or so on Philly, the other pitcher could throw the game of his life... or the Phillies bullpen could blow a save for Doc... or most of the Phillies bats might not show up and they leave a ton of baserunners on, etc.
But using those three players in total base props, one would think there is an EXCELLENT chance of going at least 2 for 3, and with those props you likely won't be laying more than -130. Two for three gets the job done every time, and you don't have to sweat out the heavy lumber you would need to lay on the Phils winning.
Yes, I'm rambling. But is this line of thinking logical or not?
ETA: I still fall into to the Wainwright -210 trap occasionally but I really try to avoid it
I was getting so excited for the Flyers game, i forgot to bet them and the -1.5 line.
Wow, I type this and the Habs score about a minute into the game. Maybe got a little lucky, that i only put a small play in last night. I did see the Habs were +170, which i think was a real good play tonight. Habs either win this game or the Flyers should blow them out. A little jaded from the goal in the first minute of play, but that was a good play.
Thank you empty netter. I thought i was doomed to get caught in the trap of taking Mon +160 and the Flyers -1.5 +170, but thanks to the empty netter it worked out well. Now come join along and make some money off the Flyers when they win the Stanley Cup
Yes, it's logical and has been fairly profitable. I call it The Blanket™I have a question for GR, lump, and any of you other prop guys. It's gonna be long, so please hang in there.Let's say you have one of the really excellent pitchers going on a certain day. Lincecum, Wainwright, Halladay... whomever. Now assume that excellent pitcher is facing a painfully average to below-average pitcher.You can do one of two things.1) Lay heavy chalk on the ace pitcher to win the gameor2) Utilize that ace pitcher for prop betsExample: Halladay is facing some journeyman pitcher for the Reds.You wager on all three Phillies hitters... Howard, Utley and Werth against Votto, Bruce and Phillips.When you lay -300 or so on Philly, the other pitcher could throw the game of his life... or the Phillies bullpen could blow a save for Doc... or most of the Phillies bats might not show up and they leave a ton of baserunners on, etc.But using those three players in total base props, one would think there is an EXCELLENT chance of going at least 2 for 3, and with those props you likely won't be laying more than -130. Two for three gets the job done every time, and you don't have to sweat out the heavy lumber you would need to lay on the Phils winning.Yes, I'm rambling. But is this line of thinking logical or not?
I agree about the sharper lines in general. The Bourn RBI and Pennington RBI out of the leadoff spot were vintage last year, but on a whole the lines have been much better. With that said, my numbers are quite a bit better than they were last year at this point, which is interesting.I can't answer for total bases, I've never had much success with those bets. For the props they offer at sportsbook.com that's the right logic. Last year sportsbook would hang the same lines on guys everyday without factoring in the pitcher(it seemed that way anyway), this year it's a different animal. IMO the props at sportsbook.com are much sharper this year, I've only seen a few ridiculous lines. They're still profitable but nothing like they were last year.I don't usually back the stud pitchers, the prices are too ridiculous. I may throw together a parlay with a bunch of favorites for fun but that's about it. During baseball I'm trying to keep my bets at + odds or as little - as possible. I think it's just too hard to win over a long season betting -140, -150 on baseball teams.I have a question for GR, lump, and any of you other prop guys. It's gonna be long, so please hang in there.
Let's say you have one of the really excellent pitchers going on a certain day. Lincecum, Wainwright, Halladay... whomever. Now assume that excellent pitcher is facing a painfully average to below-average pitcher.
You can do one of two things.
1) Lay heavy chalk on the ace pitcher to win the game
or
2) Utilize that ace pitcher for prop bets
Example: Halladay is facing some journeyman pitcher for the Reds.
You wager on all three Phillies hitters... Howard, Utley and Werth against Votto, Bruce and Phillips.
When you lay -300 or so on Philly, the other pitcher could throw the game of his life... or the Phillies bullpen could blow a save for Doc... or most of the Phillies bats might not show up and they leave a ton of baserunners on, etc.
But using those three players in total base props, one would think there is an EXCELLENT chance of going at least 2 for 3, and with those props you likely won't be laying more than -130. Two for three gets the job done every time, and you don't have to sweat out the heavy lumber you would need to lay on the Phils winning.
Yes, I'm rambling. But is this line of thinking logical or not?
ETA: I still fall into to the Wainwright -210 trap occasionally but I really try to avoid it
That's really surprising. My monthly numbers for apr-may last year were fantastic. A lot more basketball last year than this year.
Team totals at 5dimes. Team totals are considered props at sportsbook.com which kind of blows, at 5dimes they have real limits on these bets and I don't have too much of a concern about getting cutoff.PIT u3.5 +110AZ u4.5 -115COL u5 -115Bal u4 -115NYY u5 -120Min u4.5 -110Tor u4 -110
... you couldn't knock up your woman a couple of months earlier??? I have bets to win!!!) but Detroit still has a better lineup even with him being out. I love the way Verlander is throwing lately. He looks like he's in Cy Young form. I don't see the Mariners lineup being able to touch him. Fister, meanwhile, doesn't walk anyone and he isn't a big strikeout guy either. He pitches to contact. So far, he's been lucky in that balls are hit right at people. I think his style is tailor-made for Detroit's lineup to have success.
I'm on Fister, he's #1 in the AL in NPERA and he's getting + odds at homeI try not to vary bet size in baseball, too much variance to throw down a large bet on any one game, the lines are never that far off.Thanks lumpy and GooRoo for addressing my prop question.
Okay, Tampa was my biggest play of the season on Sunday, and fortunately they came back to win easily. My new biggest play of the year is tonight, on the Tigers.
I know Fister has been pitching well, and I know Miggy is out due to his wife giving birth (... you couldn't knock up your woman a couple of months earlier??? I have bets to win!!!) but Detroit still has a better lineup even with him being out. I love the way Verlander is throwing lately. He looks like he's in Cy Young form. I don't see the Mariners lineup being able to touch him. Fister, meanwhile, doesn't walk anyone and he isn't a big strikeout guy either. He pitches to contact. So far, he's been lucky in that balls are hit right at people. I think his style is tailor-made for Detroit's lineup to have success.
I see that lumpy (or his source) is on the other side, so that concerns me a bit. We'll see I guess. I just don't think you're gonna see too many times that Verlander is -125 the rest of the season if he throws the way I expect him to.
I also played S.D.+1½ (-140). Wainwright is tough, but the Cards don't score much and Garland has been pitching well.
Also took the Jays with Romero at a pick 'em, and I'll take the Nats until S.F. shows they can score a run or two.
Hey brutha...Have been in NYC for 2 straight weeks for work. I even hit 3 out of 3 plays last night in MLB and of course didn't post em. Should be back Thursday. Look forward to getting drunk and betting on MLB and reloading the thread to ##### and moan on FridayRaider Nation said:Where the #### is Bender???
Yeah, I deleted that before you replied. Gotta stay positive, but it's hard when Damon has already left 14 men on base in the 2nd inning.Raider Nation said:
I know a lot of nerd stats, but this one is new to me. Lil help?lumpy19 said:
Normalized Predicted era. I have a fair understanding of it but don't understand how it has much value in handicapping, so Lump can likely explain when he has a chance.
99% of the time I use NPERA only for totals. Every once in a while there's a guy like Fister who is better than the public realizes, this stat tends to show me those guys. Most of the time the top of the NPERA list( AL list NL list ) reads like a who's who of pitchers that everybody knows about and it's not much help in handicapping.
Thanks
congrats, i had the under 8.5 in that gameRaider Nation said:I don't know if you guys are aware of this, but I tend to whine a lot about my bad beats.Well, the Gambling Gods just gave one back to me. An incredibly unlikely one.I had a parlay of the White Sox and over 8 vs. Cleveland.They go to the bottom of the 9th, 5-1 Sox. Jenks comes in for some reason, and promptly loads the bases without getting an out. Bases loaded walk makes it 5-2. Base hit makes it 5-4. Still nobody out. Now the over is good, but Jenks looks terrible. Long story short, he gets out of it. After a sac bunt, he strikes out Kearns and gets Branyan to fly out. :( I promise... I won't complain about anything for 24 hours!
one player usually doesn't have enough of an effect IMO. Some days they rest 3-4 players and there's some value.
If anything, fade the line move when one player is announced out. I used to have a book that had each players value to a line (using stats) and guys like Bonds back in the day weren't worth nearly what was perceived.
Anyone happen to see this game? Nothing is *ever* easy for me. I was about to ####### throw up!Jimenez throws 8 scoreless innings (D'BACKS team total under 3½ runs (-135). $675 for $500. This line seems too good to be true.
Jimenez has started 9 games. He's gone 6 innings three times, 7 innings four times, 8 innings once and 9 innings once.
In NONE of those games did he give up more than 2 runs... and he only did that twice!
I'll take my chances.
) but they lift him in the 9th because they have a 7-0 lead.
Ahhhh yes, that was Chris Young hitting it to the wall, the HR would have blown our no rbi prop but instead it was our 2nd sweep in 3 days and a 28-8 run over the last weekAnyone happen to see this game? Nothing is *ever* easy for me. I was about to ####### throw up!Jimenez throws 8 scoreless innings (D'BACKS team total under 3½ runs (-135). $675 for $500. This line seems too good to be true.
Jimenez has started 9 games. He's gone 6 innings three times, 7 innings four times, 8 innings once and 9 innings once.
In NONE of those games did he give up more than 2 runs... and he only did that twice!
I'll take my chances.) but they lift him in the 9th because they have a 7-0 lead.
GAS CAN Rafael Betancourt comes in and gives up two singles then a 3-run BOMB with only one out.
Next batter hits what looks to be a HR to center field (which would have given Arizona 4 runs and bent me over big time), but Dexter Fowler -- all 6'5" of him -- goes to the wall and catches the mother ####### ball OVER the wall. If he doesn't get back there, the ball is gone.
Betancourt got the final guy to pop out, fortunately for him, as it probably saved his life.
I now see the perils of this type of bet. I knew I was in trouble when Colorado tacked on those insurance runs.
congrats on the win :(
Tigers -120
