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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (4 Viewers)

lumpy19 said:
Clorox said:
lumpy19 said:
what certainty is there in a regular season game?i'm not tyring to be a ####, just trying to change your mind. preseason is a great time to bet the nfl because the average gambler can get good information before the linesmakers. Reading the local media. the uncertainty of what the teams are going to do is what makes it better to bet.
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You make good points. I have heard a lot of positives about NFL preseason, but I have never been good at picking preseason games. Of course, I am not really good at picking anything but that's another story. At any rate, let's say Steelers win this game 24-21. Wouldn't it chap your ### if you got the Steelers -4 and lost because of that sequence (a backup QB audibling into a handoff to fricken Mewelde Moore at the goalline with no timeouts)? I know it is a small sample size...
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it would definitely chap my ###, but dumb stuff happens in the regular season too.i'm just so excited that there's football to bet on i don't even care if i win or lose :D
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I'm with you bro. Sooooooooo tired of baseball.
 
zander_s said:
Clorox said:
Raider Nation said:
Johnny Detroit said:
Raider Nation said:
:thumbup: Welcome back, JD. Don't be a stranger.
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Thanks. Had another little one and bought a bar in Novi.
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Congrats! I think I'm the only one in this thread who didn't have a kid in the past six months.
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No kids here...2 dogs though. Mo is also in the no kids club right now.
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My having kids days were over long ago!!
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I'm still working on figuring out how to take care of myself, so no rush over here
 
THIS is what sucks about preseason. Seattle would not have stopped Rodgers in a million years.

But Seattle still has all their starters in on both sides of the ball, and Green Bay doesn't.

What can you do....

 
I'm all over the U39½ for the LSU/UNC game in the Georgia Dome on 9/4.

The Tar Heels have just about everyone returning on a nasty defense, including 4 ACC first-teamers.

Offensively, I can't see them sustaining drives against the Tigers.

:shrug:

 
Raider Nation said:
I'm all over the U39½ for the LSU/UNC game in the Georgia Dome on 9/4.The Tar Heels have just about everyone returning on a nasty defense, including 4 ACC first-teamers.Offensively, I can't see them sustaining drives against the Tigers. :shrug:
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lsu offense was horrid last year....they have a lot to prove
 
The one and only thing I hate about The Greek - and I'm sure many other books do this - is the quick line changes they hit you with even as you are placing the bet.

I kept hitting refresh before the GB/SEA game even went to halftime.

Seattle -3 (+100) gets posted for the 2H. I jump on it.

In the MILLISECOND between entering my initials and hitting the "confirm" button, it went to -105.

:lol:

 
Early chalk parlay for tomorrow. I got three aces up my sleeve.

Sabathia -340 vs. Seattle

Verlander -200 vs. Cleveland

Santana -167 vs. Pittsburgh

Pays a little more than 2:1.

 
Raider Nation said:
Early chalk parlay for tomorrow. I got three aces up my sleeve.

Sabathia -340 vs. Seattle

Verlander -200 vs. Cleveland

Santana -167 vs. Pittsburgh

Pays a little more than 2:1.
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The crappy Mets are REALLLLLLY gonna make me sweat this one out. :no: They scored one whole run so far, and Santana will have to make it stand up.

:goodposting:

 
lumpy19 said:
fun night tonight9 teams to tease in NFLX, something like 82 betsMmia, KC, STL, hou, nyj, oak, dallas, gb, min
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7 out of 8 covered....if houston had covered i'd have a shot at 11k tonight. I think i clear ~5k if minny covers tonightok 84 bets for 9 teams28 losses with the hou loss, 35 wins and 21 depend on the game tonightso minny covers i win 5460, minny loses i win 1050that's betting $75 per teaser legi've got a 1k freeplay on sf -2.5 for a middle shotgood weekend for teasers even if minny doesn't cover
 
lumpy19 said:
lumpy19 said:
fun night tonight9 teams to tease in NFLX, something like 82 betsMmia, KC, STL, hou, nyj, oak, dallas, gb, min
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7 out of 8 covered....if houston had covered i'd have a shot at 11k tonight. I think i clear ~5k if minny covers tonightok 84 bets for 9 teams28 losses with the hou loss, 35 wins and 21 depend on the game tonightso minny covers i win 5460, minny loses i win 1050that's betting $75 per teaser legi've got a 1k freeplay on sf -2.5 for a middle shotgood weekend for teasers even if minny doesn't cover
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wow, nice job Lump. I know RN did pretty well as well, i should have paid a little more attention to the preseason plays then i did. Do you think plays like these will hold up as well during the 3rd and 4th week of the preseasons when the teams play the younger guys a lot more?
 
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MarshallPlan said:
Raider Nation said:
MarshallPlan said:
TheGooRoo said:
+2.5 more units for the good guys yesterday :unsure: Tonight:Schumaker no rbi Reynolds yes k (crazy line, still crazy amount of value)Pagan yes hitUpton yes kLikely more plays as lineups come up.
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Had both the yes K's. Max and then some on Reynolds.
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Reynolds didn't K, did he?
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nope, huge loss.
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K in 27 of last 30 games, I had him for 2.0 k's last night, 1.8 is the highest I recall seeing all season. Fair value was >-600. Wiggled out of two 2 strike counts. Proof positive there is no such thing as a sure thing. Now k's twice in 3 ab so far today against Chacin :thumbup:
 
TheGooRoo said:
MarshallPlan said:
Raider Nation said:
MarshallPlan said:
TheGooRoo said:
+2.5 more units for the good guys yesterday :wall: Tonight:Schumaker no rbi Reynolds yes k (crazy line, still crazy amount of value)Pagan yes hitUpton yes kLikely more plays as lineups come up.
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Had both the yes K's. Max and then some on Reynolds.
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Reynolds didn't K, did he?
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nope, huge loss.
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K in 27 of last 30 games, I had him for 2.0 k's last night, 1.8 is the highest I recall seeing all season. Fair value was >-600. Wiggled out of two 2 strike counts. Proof positive there is no such thing as a sure thing. Now k's twice in 3 ab so far today against Chacin :wall:
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I made it somewhere around -800 or so. Especially with Jimenez on the hill and his o/u k's at 7'. Oh well, moving on.
 
Gentlemen, this hobby of ours is incredibly frustrating sometimes.

I have the U7 in the Reds/Dodgers game. 3-2 going to the top of the 9th.

Fat disgusting useless slob Jonathan Broxton comes in and promptly gives up two runs.

Final score: 5-2. A win becomes a push.

Sigh.

 
Raider Nation said:
Gentlemen, this hobby of ours is incredibly frustrating sometimes.I have the U7 in the Reds/Dodgers game. 3-2 going to the top of the 9th.Fat disgusting useless slob Jonathan Broxton comes in and promptly gives up two runs.Final score: 5-2. A win becomes a push.Sigh.
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I had the same thing, at least it didn't lose :goodposting:
 
For those with a 365 account I wholeheartedly approve of hitting LL Sanchez at 100/1 for the Vuelta (cycling). No idea where this number came from. He's had a real quiet year, but is in good enough form to do this thing. He's starting to get some steam to 80/1 though on the major brit books.

At first I thought it screamed bad line, but the more I think about it the more likely this is probably the books taking a nap on this one.

Most think it's a battle between Nibali 6/1 and Frank Schleck 3/1, and I probably agree, but this is pretty damn good value IMO at 100/1.

 
I have more money than I care to admit tied up in the Cardinals winning the NL Central. Looked like such a slam dunk back in the spring... Wainwright, Carpenter, Garcia... a strong National League lineup, etc.

The Reds are gonna choke eventually. Right?

:blackdot:

 
Raider Nation said:
I have more money than I care to admit tied up in the Cardinals winning the NL Central. Looked like such a slam dunk back in the spring... Wainwright, Carpenter, Garcia... a strong National League lineup, etc.

The Reds are gonna choke eventually. Right?

:coffee:
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You and me both. The reds just won't stop scoring runs. big series coming up sept 3-5, gonna need another cards sweep
 
lumpy19 said:
Raider Nation said:
I have more money than I care to admit tied up in the Cardinals winning the NL Central. Looked like such a slam dunk back in the spring... Wainwright, Carpenter, Garcia... a strong National League lineup, etc.

The Reds are gonna choke eventually. Right?

:hifive:
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You and me both. The reds just won't stop scoring runs. big series coming up sept 3-5, gonna need another cards sweep
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Reds will cave....trust me

 
What would you guys make a half of a strikeout worth? I'd guess something like 50 cents, this seem about right? For instance, if you were offered under 6' k's -130 and over 6 k's -115 do you play both?

 
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MarshallPlan said:
What would you guys make a half of a strikeout worth? I'd guess something like 50 cents, this seem about right? For instance, if you were offered under 6' k's -130 and over 6 k's -115 do you play both?
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IMO you're wasting your time middling props, especially on a 1/2 middle where you can't win both bets.if you had 5.5k and 6.5k it'd be worth a look, MAYBE. Just figure out which is the bad side and bet that.
 
lumpy19 said:
MarshallPlan said:
What would you guys make a half of a strikeout worth? I'd guess something like 50 cents, this seem about right? For instance, if you were offered under 6' k's -130 and over 6 k's -115 do you play both?
Click to expand...
IMO you're wasting your time middling props, especially on a 1/2 middle where you can't win both bets.if you had 5.5k and 6.5k it'd be worth a look, MAYBE. Just figure out which is the bad side and bet that.
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Kind of surprised you think this. You think it's not worth it for fear of being cut from props (because I am wagering more when I try to middle.) I'm going to try to do some math on it later tonight when I'm free.
 
MarshallPlan said:
lumpy19 said:
MarshallPlan said:
What would you guys make a half of a strikeout worth? I'd guess something like 50 cents, this seem about right? For instance, if you were offered under 6' k's -130 and over 6 k's -115 do you play both?
Click to expand...
IMO you're wasting your time middling props, especially on a 1/2 middle where you can't win both bets.if you had 5.5k and 6.5k it'd be worth a look, MAYBE. Just figure out which is the bad side and bet that.
Click to expand...
Kind of surprised you think this. You think it's not worth it for fear of being cut from props (because I am wagering more when I try to middle.) I'm going to try to do some math on it later tonight when I'm free.
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If you're a winner betting props it doesn't take much to get cut. Better not to waste wagers over $100 on middle opportunities, you can do all the math you want.I've had accounts cut where 90% of my action was on sides/totals and i never wagered more than $200 on a prop. +10k on sides and totals +2k on props and they cut the props.
 
I'm not huge on betting pre-season, but I think the Eagles have some pretty incredible value this week. They have not been too impressive, and i think they will have some good days and bad days, but they match-up well with the Chiefs. They also have their starters playing 3 quarters (well, reported in the local media here), so i think they should be able to win this one

 
lumpy19 said:
MarshallPlan said:
lumpy19 said:
MarshallPlan said:
What would you guys make a half of a strikeout worth? I'd guess something like 50 cents, this seem about right? For instance, if you were offered under 6' k's -130 and over 6 k's -115 do you play both?
Click to expand...
IMO you're wasting your time middling props, especially on a 1/2 middle where you can't win both bets.if you had 5.5k and 6.5k it'd be worth a look, MAYBE. Just figure out which is the bad side and bet that.
Click to expand...
Kind of surprised you think this. You think it's not worth it for fear of being cut from props (because I am wagering more when I try to middle.) I'm going to try to do some math on it later tonight when I'm free.
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If you're a winner betting props it doesn't take much to get cut. Better not to waste wagers over $100 on middle opportunities, you can do all the math you want.I've had accounts cut where 90% of my action was on sides/totals and i never wagered more than $200 on a prop. +10k on sides and totals +2k on props and they cut the props.
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Your right here. It probably is stupid of me to even try this. Let me ask this. Who's lines are sharper in terms of props, sportsbook or bodog? And even more specifically strikeout props?
 
All over NE tonight, -7(-110) for the game and -5.5(-110) for the 1st half. Also have NE in all my teasers

Teasers(so far) for NFLX week 3

NE -7 or -7.5

Was +5

KC +1.5

Cle +2.5

Buf +3

TB +2.5

Sea +5.5

ETA: Den +2 added to the teaser list

 
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MarshallPlan said:
lumpy19 said:
MarshallPlan said:
lumpy19 said:
MarshallPlan said:
What would you guys make a half of a strikeout worth? I'd guess something like 50 cents, this seem about right? For instance, if you were offered under 6' k's -130 and over 6 k's -115 do you play both?
Click to expand...
IMO you're wasting your time middling props, especially on a 1/2 middle where you can't win both bets.if you had 5.5k and 6.5k it'd be worth a look, MAYBE. Just figure out which is the bad side and bet that.
Click to expand...
Kind of surprised you think this. You think it's not worth it for fear of being cut from props (because I am wagering more when I try to middle.) I'm going to try to do some math on it later tonight when I'm free.
Click to expand...
If you're a winner betting props it doesn't take much to get cut. Better not to waste wagers over $100 on middle opportunities, you can do all the math you want.I've had accounts cut where 90% of my action was on sides/totals and i never wagered more than $200 on a prop. +10k on sides and totals +2k on props and they cut the props.
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Your right here. It probably is stupid of me to even try this. Let me ask this. Who's lines are sharper in terms of props, sportsbook or bodog? And even more specifically strikeout props?
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Bodog sets the sharper strikeout lines.
 
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