FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (9 Viewers)

[lumpy19]

Teaser plays for this weekend, I only played the Minnesota legs, I'll wait til sunday to finish up the restMin +5Pit +2Cin +4.5Cle +2.5Den +2.5Hou +2Balt +2.5KC +4.5

No more Denver all the rest are plays. Worried about losing PIT so i put them in tonight.

Philly slides in nicely to take denvers spot

35-21, +42u, teaser train keeps rollin

 

[lumpy19]

Teaser plays for this weekend, I only played the Minnesota legs, I'll wait til sunday to finish up the restMin +5Pit +2Cin +4.5Cle +2.5Den +2.5Hou +2Balt +2.5KC +4.5

No more Denver all the rest are plays. Worried about losing PIT so i put them in tonight.

Philly slides in nicely to take denvers spot

35-21, +42u, teaser train keeps rollin

I just found a site that offers +200 on 3 team 6 point teasers. A little math to depress myself...so far in 2010 the 3 team 6pt teaser bets i have placed are 207-52(which is ridiculous)...at +180 that's +320.6 units. IF i had bet all of these at my new favorite site I'd be up 362 units......41.4 units difference :(

 

[MarshallPlan]

Teaser plays for this weekend, I only played the Minnesota legs, I'll wait til sunday to finish up the restMin +5Pit +2Cin +4.5Cle +2.5Den +2.5Hou +2Balt +2.5KC +4.5

No more Denver all the rest are plays. Worried about losing PIT so i put them in tonight.

Philly slides in nicely to take denvers spot

35-21, +42u, teaser train keeps rollin

I just found a site that offers +200 on 3 team 6 point teasers. A little math to depress myself...so far in 2010 the 3 team 6pt teaser bets i have placed are 207-52(which is ridiculous)...at +180 that's +320.6 units. IF i had bet all of these at my new favorite site I'd be up 362 units......41.4 units difference

care to share? I would no be offended if you didn't.

 

[lumpy19]

care to share? I would no be offended if you didn't.

I've played there in the past and got paid but it was 4-5 years ago. you can find them on the RX sponsor list, they have a terrible SBR rating but with those odds i'm willing to take a shot.When NE opens at +1 at the Jets today I'll be betting 1 million units, probably my largest bet ever on an NFL game.

 

[LaneOfSteel™]

care to share? I would no be offended if you didn't.

I've played there in the past and got paid but it was 4-5 years ago. you can find them on the RX sponsor list, they have a terrible SBR rating but with those odds i'm willing to take a shot.When NE opens at +1 at the Jets today I'll be betting 1 million units, probably my largest bet ever on an NFL game.

-1.5 at sportsbook.

 

[lumpy19]

care to share? I would no be offended if you didn't.

I've played there in the past and got paid but it was 4-5 years ago. you can find them on the RX sponsor list, they have a terrible SBR rating but with those odds i'm willing to take a shot.When NE opens at +1 at the Jets today I'll be betting 1 million units, probably my largest bet ever on an NFL game.

-1.5 at sportsbook.

Yup already on it

 

[LaneOfSteel™]

care to share? I would no be offended if you didn't.

I've played there in the past and got paid but it was 4-5 years ago. you can find them on the RX sponsor list, they have a terrible SBR rating but with those odds i'm willing to take a shot.When NE opens at +1 at the Jets today I'll be betting 1 million units, probably my largest bet ever on an NFL game.

-1.5 at sportsbook.

Yup already on it

million units or tone it down to 700,000 units?

 

[lumpy19]

care to share? I would no be offended if you didn't.

I've played there in the past and got paid but it was 4-5 years ago. you can find them on the RX sponsor list, they have a terrible SBR rating but with those odds i'm willing to take a shot.When NE opens at +1 at the Jets today I'll be betting 1 million units, probably my largest bet ever on an NFL game.

-1.5 at sportsbook.

Yup already on it

million units or tone it down to 700,000 units?

I have about 2.5 units on it

 

[modogg]

I think there is some real value in Philadelphia to win the NL East +300 on sportsbook. I'm a little dissapointed in myself for hitting the line so much when it was around +150, but even for those who do not feel the Phils have a great chance with this, the value in the line is very good. The phils are currently 4.5 games behind the Braves. They are looking better, but still have a way to go. However, they just swept the Rockies, and the upcoming series are against Arizona, Washington, Florida, the Mets, and then the Dodgers. The Braves have the Nats, but then the Reds, Mets, and then the Giants. I am sure there is a bit of homerism here, but looking at the next 2 series for each team, i have to think the Phils will close the gap a little.

At what point will you stop betting this? +300 isn't bad, Braves are the best team in the East.

Sportsbook's numbers are way too heavy on the favorites right now. TB +350, Cincy +120, SF +250 all good numbers for 2nd place teams

Seriously. Most of the bets i made were $35 or $40 with a couple heavier, but I am certainly in on the Phils to win the NL East. I would feel better about the bet if they would have got some bullpen help before the trade deadline, but as long as the Phils can keep Lidge off the field the Phils have a reasonable chance. I still think the Braves will begin to show their true colors in late August and September.

Being that I think any bets against the Eagles at this point is where the smart money will be, I would like to take the time to let everyone know the Phils are up 2 games in the NL East, and the series, and they play the Braves on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, with i believe Hamels, Oswalt and Halladay starting. The Braves play the Mets in NY the 3 days before that, so this series could hopefully be a clean sweep. I don't know if you can still bet on who will win the NL East, but hopefully the series price on this one will be gentle (-150 or something), and it should be easy money.Also have a couple of UFC plays for the event tomorrow night. Not too heavy:

Nate Marquardt -200: 1.5 unit

Charles Oliveira +150 (better prices out there too): .75 unit

Dave Branch: .35 unit

 

[LHUCKS]

I like the bolded red teams, unusual week where I like all favorites...thoughts?

KC+1.5 vs. CLE

BUF+13 vs. GB

BAL-1.5 vs. CIN

PIT+5 vs. TENN

PHI-4.5 vs. DET

CHI+8.5 vs. DAL

AZ+6.5 vs. ATL

MIA+5.5 vs. MIN

STL+4 vs. OAK

SEA+3.5 vs. DEN

HOU-3 vs. WAS

JAX+8 vs. SD

NE-1.5 vs. NYJ

NYG+5.5 vs. IND

NO-5 vs. SF

 

[John Bender]

I like the bolded red teams, unusual week where I like all favorites...thoughts?

KC+1.5 vs. CLE

BUF-13 vs. GB

BAL-1.5 vs. CIN

PIT+5 vs. TENN

PHI-4.5 vs. DET

CHI+8.5 vs. DAL

AZ+6.5 vs. ATL

MIA+5.5 vs. MIN

STL+4 vs. OAK

SEA+3.5 vs. DEN

HOU-3 vs. WAS

JAX+8 vs. SD

NE-1.5 vs. NYJ

NYG+5.5 vs. IND

NO-5 vs. SF

What book did you find GB +13 at?

 

[boltjeff]

Hey. Need some help. On Sportsbook and need to find a good way to get more more money in. My method from last year is not working. Anyway just send a PM if you have some advice. Thanks.

 

[Romulan]

Looks like Tenn beating pitt is the best lock this week... Anyone disagree or see a better game?

 

[culdeus]

Looks like Tenn beating pitt is the best lock this week... Anyone disagree or see a better game?

For survivor pool? GB is the consensus pick.

 

[MarshallPlan]

Any guesses on what a half or even a full strikeout is worth? How many cents? Obviously, closer the zero the more a half strikeout is worth.

Let's just say you have Halladay lined at 5 k's -115. What would under 5' be worth? What about un 6?

I'd take a shot at 40 cents for a half.

 

[culdeus]

Any guesses on what a half or even a full strikeout is worth? How many cents? Obviously, closer the zero the more a half strikeout is worth.Let's just say you have Halladay lined at 5 k's -115. What would under 5' be worth? What about un 6?I'd take a shot at 40 cents for a half.

Run his ks this year through a stat-pak. Can't be that hard to get a model out of it.

 

[PinkydaPimp]

i like:

colts giants over (47.5)

Pats -1.5

Eagles -3.5

Any thoughts on Alabama -23.5 and Kansas st -3.5?

 

[Detroit Fan 365]

Took the Twins tonight.

 

[MarshallPlan]

Any guesses on what a half or even a full strikeout is worth? How many cents? Obviously, closer the zero the more a half strikeout is worth.Let's just say you have Halladay lined at 5 k's -115. What would under 5' be worth? What about un 6?I'd take a shot at 40 cents for a half.

Run his ks this year through a stat-pak. Can't be that hard to get a model out of it.

Huh?

 

[modogg]

I know this probably breaks most of the teaser rules regarding getting good numbers, but I think this is a fairly strong teaser:

DAL -2.5 (against Chicago), Atl -.5 (against Arizona), Minn +.5 (Against Miami), SD -2 (against Jax), NE +4.5 (@NYJ), bal +4.5 (@Cincy)

I know I didn't get too much value with this and the numbers are not that attractive, but I think Dallas, Atlanta, Minn and SD should win outright. If NE loses I can't see them losing by more then a FG, and i hope BAL is ready for a potentially dangerous Cincy team. I think the 2 weak spots are possibly ATL and BAL, but I can't see BAL roll over against Cincy, and if ATL can't beat Arizona in ATL with how Arizona looks right now then they are in some trouble.

 

[Raider Nation]

I know this probably breaks most of the teaser rules regarding getting good numbers, but I think this is a fairly strong teaser:

DAL -2.5 (against Chicago), Atl -.5 (against Arizona), Minn +.5 (Against Miami), SD -2 (against Jax), NE +4.5 (@NYJ), bal +4.5 (@Cincy)

I know I didn't get too much value with this and the numbers are not that attractive, but I think Dallas, Atlanta, Minn and SD should win outright. If NE loses I can't see them losing by more then a FG, and i hope BAL is ready for a potentially dangerous Cincy team. I think the 2 weak spots are possibly ATL and BAL, but I can't see BAL roll over against Cincy, and if ATL can't beat Arizona in ATL with how Arizona looks right now then they are in some trouble.

Looks pretty good, mo. This seems like a nice week for some 5 and 6-team teasers. The only potential problem you might have there is the Chargers. I know it seems like a "must-win" already, but they always start slowly and they don't look very cohesive right now. Also, I think some people might be sleeping on the Jags. They look to be pretty improved.

 

[modogg]

I know this probably breaks most of the teaser rules regarding getting good numbers, but I think this is a fairly strong teaser:

DAL -2.5 (against Chicago), Atl -.5 (against Arizona), Minn +.5 (Against Miami), SD -2 (against Jax), NE +4.5 (@NYJ), bal +4.5 (@Cincy)

I know I didn't get too much value with this and the numbers are not that attractive, but I think Dallas, Atlanta, Minn and SD should win outright. If NE loses I can't see them losing by more then a FG, and i hope BAL is ready for a potentially dangerous Cincy team. I think the 2 weak spots are possibly ATL and BAL, but I can't see BAL roll over against Cincy, and if ATL can't beat Arizona in ATL with how Arizona looks right now then they are in some trouble.

Looks pretty good, mo. This seems like a nice week for some 5 and 6-team teasers. The only potential problem you might have there is the Chargers. I know it seems like a "must-win" already, but they always start slowly and they don't look very cohesive right now. Also, I think some people might be sleeping on the Jags. They look to be pretty improved.

I'll keep that in mind. Luckily SD and NE are 4:00 games, so if everything hits at 1:00 maybe i will hedge a bit by playing with Jax. And man, i just looked at the lines and it looks like they were hit pretty good yesterday or today. Great call by Lumpy to bring up the Pats when they were -1.5. I see they are -3 right now at sportsbook.

 

[LHUCKS]

Locked in the bets below tonight for NFL week 2

BUF-13 vs. GB, 1 unit

PIT+5 vs. TENN, 1 unit

AZ+6.5 vs. ATL, 2 units

MIA+5.5 vs. MIN, 4 units

STL+3.5 vs. OAK, 1 unit

SEA+3.5 vs. DEN, 2 units

JAX+7.5 vs. SD, 2 units

NE-2.5 vs. NYJ, 4 units

NYG+5.5 vs. IND, 1 units

Also put 40 bucks down on a parlay with all of the above picks...pays out 14k.

 

[Raider Nation]

^ All favorites. Can't miss!

Except for your Packers +13 bet. You must have gotten that when it first opened.

 

[lumpy19]

I know this probably breaks most of the teaser rules regarding getting good numbers, but I think this is a fairly strong teaser:

DAL -2.5 (against Chicago), Atl -.5 (against Arizona), Minn +.5 (Against Miami), SD -2 (against Jax), NE +4.5 (@NYJ), bal +4.5 (@Cincy)

I know I didn't get too much value with this and the numbers are not that attractive, but I think Dallas, Atlanta, Minn and SD should win outright. If NE loses I can't see them losing by more then a FG, and i hope BAL is ready for a potentially dangerous Cincy team. I think the 2 weak spots are possibly ATL and BAL, but I can't see BAL roll over against Cincy, and if ATL can't beat Arizona in ATL with how Arizona looks right now then they are in some trouble.

I hope you win Mo but thats an awful bet

 

[Leroy Hoard]

^ All favorites. Can't miss!Except for your Packers +13 bet. You must have gotten that when it first opened.

You gotta love those 26 point swings - smart money in action.

 

[optionmaven]

^ All favorites. Can't miss!Except for your Packers +13 bet. You must have gotten that when it first opened.

You gotta love those 26 point swings - smart money in action.

Somebody mentioned it in this thread earlier. Does anybody play the "games of the yr" @ sportsbook. I've been going out just one week ahead and playing some games. It has been a good advantage on the lines so far. Last week I played Cal @ -1 against nevada. Line opened this week @ -3. Played Tennessee @ +16 and it opened @ +14. I know marshall plan would be doing some scalping over the top hedge juice frankenstien maneuvers with these.

 

[LHUCKS]

^ All favorites. Can't miss!Except for your Packers +13 bet. You must have gotten that when it first opened.

You gotta love those 26 point swings - smart money in action.

is a typo really that funny....you guys are easily entertained these days it appears.

 

[lumpy19]

Somebody mentioned it in this thread earlier. Does anybody play the "games of the yr" @ sportsbook. I've been going out just one week ahead and playing some games. It has been a good advantage on the lines so far. Last week I played Cal @ -1 against nevada. Line opened this week @ -3. Played Tennessee @ +16 and it opened @ +14. I know marshall plan would be doing some scalping over the top hedge juice frankenstien maneuvers with these.

I haven't looked at the sportsbook.com lines but 5dimes had these before the season started and some of them were 10+ points off of what the line closed at on gameday. In college games specifically if you have a good understanding of certain teams I think there's lots of +EV in these GOY bets.

 

[lumpy19]

^ All favorites. Can't miss!Except for your Packers +13 bet. You must have gotten that when it first opened.

You gotta love those 26 point swings - smart money in action.

is a typo really that funny....you guys are easily entertained these days it appears.

typo isn't as funny as you picking all favorites

 

[LHUCKS]

typo isn't as funny as you picking all favorites

I would hope not...This is just a weird week....pretty rare occasion where I only like favorites.

 

[optionmaven]

typo isn't as funny as you picking all favorites

I would hope not...This is just a weird week....pretty rare occasion where I only like favorites.

Last week I liked alot of your picks and I think you did well. I think Joe Public beat the books pretty good last week too. Odds are they take some back this week on the dogs.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

I know this probably breaks most of the teaser rules regarding getting good numbers, but I think this is a fairly strong teaser:

DAL -2.5 (against Chicago), Atl -.5 (against Arizona), Minn +.5 (Against Miami), SD -2 (against Jax), NE +4.5 (@NYJ), bal +4.5 (@Cincy)

I know I didn't get too much value with this and the numbers are not that attractive, but I think Dallas, Atlanta, Minn and SD should win outright. If NE loses I can't see them losing by more then a FG, and i hope BAL is ready for a potentially dangerous Cincy team. I think the 2 weak spots are possibly ATL and BAL, but I can't see BAL roll over against Cincy, and if ATL can't beat Arizona in ATL with how Arizona looks right now then they are in some trouble.

Good luck modogg, but I would just note that I think Dallas and SD are the only classic system numbers here, and you're on the wrong side of wong on Balt and NE. I'm doing all straight wong system teasers this year. Its kind of boring, but still gives me the gambling rush.

 

[optionmaven]

I know this probably breaks most of the teaser rules regarding getting good numbers, but I think this is a fairly strong teaser:

DAL -2.5 (against Chicago), Atl -.5 (against Arizona), Minn +.5 (Against Miami), SD -2 (against Jax), NE +4.5 (@NYJ), bal +4.5 (@Cincy)

I know I didn't get too much value with this and the numbers are not that attractive, but I think Dallas, Atlanta, Minn and SD should win outright. If NE loses I can't see them losing by more then a FG, and i hope BAL is ready for a potentially dangerous Cincy team. I think the 2 weak spots are possibly ATL and BAL, but I can't see BAL roll over against Cincy, and if ATL can't beat Arizona in ATL with how Arizona looks right now then they are in some trouble.

Good luck modogg, but I would just note that I think Dallas and SD are the only classic system numbers here, and you're on the wrong side of wong on Balt and NE. I'm doing all straight wong system teasers this year. Its kind of boring, but still gives me the gambling rush.

I like the minnesota pick as i have already played it in a couple of teasers and have a carryover bet with them in it. They get the extra days rest, come home to a lighter opponent, and need to keep pace with the packers. Congrats to sticking with your convictions on the Phillies. Well done. I already started building on my Blackhawk futures to win the Cup @ 6/1. REPEAT!!!

 

[guru_007]

If someone wants to post some BS teasers for me, that would be swell.

I didn't play all the teasers last week, but I did manage to go 10-0 last week, with Baltimore fixing me up real good on Monday night

thanks in advance, will answer yours.

 

[lumpy19]

If someone wants to post some BS teasers for me, that would be swell.I didn't play all the teasers last week, but I did manage to go 10-0 last week, with Baltimore fixing me up real good on Monday night thanks in advance, will answer yours.

These are the games I'm planning on teasingKC +2GB -12.5 Cincy +2Pit +5Dal -7/7.5Miami +5.5Was +2.5/3SD -7NYG +5.5SF +5.5ETA: there are 3 games lined at +3.5, i might be putting them into a 3t 7pt teaser

 

[safariplanet]

Date placed:Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point SpreadWEEK 2(228) Denver Broncos -3½ (-105) Sun@2:05pCompetitor:(227) Seattle SeahawksRisk US$ 7.00 to win US$ 6.67

Date placed:Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point SpreadWEEK 2(217) Chicago Bears +9 (-115) Sun@11:00aCompetitor:(218) Dallas CowboysRisk US$ 13.00 to win US$ 11.30

Date placed:Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point SpreadWEEK 2(215) Philadelphia Eagles -4 (-115) Sun@11:00aCompetitor:(216) Detroit LionsRisk US$ 12.00 to win US$ 10.43

Date placed:Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point SpreadWEEK 2(210) Green Bay Packers -14 (-105) Sun@11:00aCompetitor:(209) Buffalo BillsRisk US$ 8.00 to win US$ 7.62

Date placed:Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point SpreadWEEK 2(237) New Orleans Saints -5 (-120) Mon@6:35pCompetitor:(238) San Francisco 49ersBought 0.5 pointsRisk US$ 7.47 to win US$ 6.23

 

[MarshallPlan]

BS would be:

KC

Cincy

Dallas

Wash

Not saying the other teasers aren't +EV too.

 

[LHUCKS]

Just bought some books directly or loosely related to betting on football:

The Professional Handicapper: Advanced Teachings In The Ways To Properly Forecast College & Pro Football (Volume 1) David Paul GreeneFooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets Nassim Nicholas Taleb The Smart Money: How the World's Best Sports Bettors Beat the Bookies Out of Millions Michael Konik"How to Beat the Pro Football Pointspread: A Comprehensive, No-Nonsense Guide to Picking NFL Winners"Bobby Smith

 

[CletiusMaximus]

Hey. Need some help. On Sportsbook and need to find a good way to get more more money in. My method from last year is not working. Anyway just send a PM if you have some advice. Thanks.

I used my normal Visa bankcard (debit card). I knew the transaction would be rejected, so called Visa in advance. They told me to submit it and then call them back after it was rejected. The transaction was rejected immediately and I called Visa back. As advised by the sportsbook.com help people via online chat, I told Visa that I had put through an "international debit transaction" in the amount of $XXX and asked it to be approved. They told me to re-submit it, which I did - again using the online chat help guy at sportsbook. My bank charged me a $25 international transaction fee. The whole thing took about 10 minutes.

 

[guru_007]

Game tonight. anyone? Derek?

 

[Detroit Fan 365]

Game tonight. anyone? Derek?

I took NC State -2

 

[Detroit Fan 365]

I took:

Mets -1.5

NC State -2

Under 54.5

Twins ML

Padres ML

Giants ML

Indians ML

 

[KGB]

Just bought some books directly or loosely related to betting on football:

The Professional Handicapper: Advanced Teachings In The Ways To Properly Forecast College & Pro Football (Volume 1)

David Paul Greene

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

The Smart Money: How the World's Best Sports Bettors Beat the Bookies Out of Millions

Michael Konik

"How to Beat the Pro Football Pointspread: A Comprehensive, No-Nonsense Guide to Picking NFL Winners"

Bobby Smith

Read that. good book.

 

[derek245583]

Game tonight. anyone? Derek?

Looking at it right now.....I will post my play(s) in a few.

 

[derek245583]

Game tonight. anyone? Derek?

Looking at it right now.....I will post my play(s) in a few.

I wont bet against UC, but I wont bet on them when I dont like it....and I dont like it. I think NC State wins.I like the Under 55 though, I may take that.Russell Wilson UNDER 20.5 completions seems pretty good too..>He was 10-30 last week vs UCF I believe. And I expect NC State to be winning.

 

[lumpy19]

on nc state tonight

 

[guru_007]

Wanted to play NC State, but instead, decided to play the Thursday night u55

g'luck sports fans

 

[LHUCKS]

11 bucks on NCS just because I'm bored and a few of you are on it.

 

[Gambino]

11 bucks on NCS just because I'm bored and a few of you are on it.

Seriously, $11?Why bother?