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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (8 Viewers)

final teaser list

dal -7

Sf +2.5

NE -8

Oak +3

Den +3

SD -7.5

NO +2.5

I have NYG and Jax in there but they've fallen out of range now, my fault for playing them early. tough week with the holidays.

side plays

GB -3(-105)

 
What is nobody at sportsbook or any of these books working today? Hardly any props for all these national tv games. They couldn't make the lines last night, put them out and move them so they could enjoy the day?

I lean to Knicks 1h un 105. Seems like a lot, one of these teams may come out hungover and sleep walking? I may bet Bulls -2 +145 too. Same thing, this may be a blowout, I'm not sure which way though.

I'll take the Lakers for sure today. Wade banged up. Lakers are the defending champs and basically sleepwalk through many of their games - not this one though.

 
Raider Nation said:
MarshallPlan said:
Raider Nation said:
Good job, MP. You were all over it. These dumb azzholes are still hung over.
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Still found a way to lose with a 65 pt quarter. Nice.
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Cannot even begin to TELL you how many of those go against me. I was due for a break.Like anything in the 2H?
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Nah nothing. I have game un 208 and Bulls -2 so I'll just keep these. 1q/1h was kinda like I was hoping for with the slow start. Game should be just fine now. I'm also holding losing Amare un 29 +125 and Rose un 25 +125 tickets. Rose on pace for 36 shots...

 
MarshallPlan said:
Raider Nation said:
MarshallPlan said:
I'm a glutton for punishment with unders. Un 51.5 +120 and Bulls -195 first to score both at sb.
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Am I reading this incorrectly? You are laying almost 2:1 on who will score the first bucket of the 2H? :no:
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Yes, typically these are good under -200. I bet them every chance I can with teams who get the ball 1st.
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And this is successful? It seems like you're laying 2:1 on a coin flip, especially with how awful NBA shooting can be. :lmao:
 
Raider Nation said:
MarshallPlan said:
Raider Nation said:
MarshallPlan said:
I'm a glutton for punishment with unders. Un 51.5 +120 and Bulls -195 first to score both at sb.
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Am I reading this incorrectly? You are laying almost 2:1 on who will score the first bucket of the 2H? :thumbup:
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Yes, typically these are good under -200. I bet them every chance I can with teams who get the ball 1st.
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And this is successful? It seems like you're laying 2:1 on a coin flip, especially with how awful NBA shooting can be. :shrug:
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Your not flipping a coin if you get the ball first.
 
So in live betting, I took the Celtics +450 to win the 2nd Q when they were down by 3 in the Q with 7:30 left. Whether it wins or not, does that not seem ridiculous to be +450?

 
Does the total of 45 seem a tad high to anyone else?

Dallas could score 31, sure. But even then, Arizona would need to score 14 to get the push, and that's no lock at all.

I'm seeing something like 27-10 Dallas.

 
nittanylion said:
Just dumped another big chunk on the Rainbow Warriors -9.5 (buying 1/2). This game may go over the Total, but I don't think it will because Tulsa is matching Hawaii score for score, but rather because Hawaii is scoring at will, and pouring it on for the enjoyment of their Home Town Fans. Don't sleep on the Hawaii Defense, and LB Aaron Brown. There is a HUGE discrepency between the quality of these two defenses, and particularly in how they defend the pass.Hawaii is 11-2 ATS on the year, and both of the times they lost vs the spread, their Defense played poorly, and they were on the road. Aaron Brown was inserted into the starting lineup during Week 3 road loss at Colorado, and since then the Defense has been solid, and even more solid at home. Brown is a playmaker., and has been a catalyst for the Defense. Take a look at how they handled Nevada when the Wolfpack visited Honolulu this Season if you want a thoughtful look at how this Game might play out, in terms of the caliber of offense Tulsa brings to the table...Nevada brought a much better Defense than Tulsa, and lost 27-21. Not only does this Hawaii team play better Defense than we are used to seeing, they run the ball pretty well too, and have used the run, like SDSU did last night, to stake a big lead and then bleed the clock dry, and kill overs...but they do a hell of a job covering as a side play.I see plenty of folks hopping on this Total, and I myself have this Game capped out to 52-31, which is 83 total points, but after 69, some things that don't normally have a high probability of occuring almost have to happen to drive it higher, and anything over 77 is taking risk I'm not comfortable with for any matchup.I think the much safer play is the Side, and I'd strongly encourage everyone playing that Total to buy some side as a hedge. I strongly feel it's going to be like Christians vs Lions out there tonight.
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:thumbup: Well, that didn't work out as planned. Apologies to any who followed. If it makes anyone feel any better, I probably lost a higher percentage of bankroll on that play than anyone else. I felt really, REALLY good about it, and I put a good deal of thought into laying that much down. I don't just post here without putting in the effort to try and give a solid take on my leans, and help the Thread to a profit.Raider Nation, yes that Total does seem high.Playing Cowboys Pck'm / Under 52 tonight. Small. Most Seasons, this is a home game for Dallas, in terms of fan support, and with the Cards at 4-10, this is one of those Seasons. Cowboys have the better QB and Defense. Also, when Jerry Jones can find a way to motivate the Cowboys, he does, and here it is: after beating the despised Redskins last week, and avenging the earlier away loss, Dallas has a chance to NOT finish in the NFC East basement, and in the process, pile on the 'skins by leapfrogging them into 3rd. More gut than analysiss, I know, but it is what it is.
 
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1H, Dallas -4. It's gonna take a while for Skelton to understand what he's seeing. Pasqualoni's defense can be confusing to a youngster.

 
Raider Nation said:
1H, Dallas -4. It's gonna take a while for Skelton to understand what he's seeing. Pasqualoni's defense can be confusing to a youngster.
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Also, I should add that I have no earthly idea what I'm talking about, but I like Dallas -4 in the 1H and that reason sounded pretty good in my head as I typed it.
 
Weather for the Philly/Minn tomorrow night is not going to be good. Calling for 20-30mph winds with gusts up to 40mph. Along with 8-12 inches of snow.

I bet everything I could at sportsbook under. Under 40, under team totals, under fgs, under long fg, under pass yds, under rec yds, under fg kicker pts, over punts, no td for Desean, Percy, Gerhart un 1st carry, no score 1st 6 mins, total pts 0-14 +1600, 15-21 +1200, 22-28 +900.

The one I did not bet but should is under on sacks.

GL whatever you do, I'm hoping for some really bad weather.

 
MarshallPlan said:
Weather for the Philly/Minn tomorrow night is not going to be good. Calling for 20-30mph winds with gusts up to 40mph. Along with 8-12 inches of snow. I bet everything I could at sportsbook under. Under 40, under team totals, under fgs, under long fg, under pass yds, under rec yds, under fg kicker pts, over punts, no td for Desean, Percy, Gerhart un 1st carry, no score 1st 6 mins, total pts 0-14 +1600, 15-21 +1200, 22-28 +900. The one I did not bet but should is under on sacks. GL whatever you do, I'm hoping for some really bad weather.
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Another one for this game at sia. Philly/Minn +1100 to have lowest scoring game. Total down to 39 already. 40 still at sportsbook - I'd bet a lot of money it does not close 40 tomorrow night.
 
MarshallPlan said:
Weather for the Philly/Minn tomorrow night is not going to be good. Calling for 20-30mph winds with gusts up to 40mph. Along with 8-12 inches of snow. I bet everything I could at sportsbook under. Under 40, under team totals, under fgs, under long fg, under pass yds, under rec yds, under fg kicker pts, over punts, no td for Desean, Percy, Gerhart un 1st carry, no score 1st 6 mins, total pts 0-14 +1600, 15-21 +1200, 22-28 +900. The one I did not bet but should is under on sacks. GL whatever you do, I'm hoping for some really bad weather.
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This opened at 44, playing it at 40 now has little value. Bad weather = under is a misnomer anyway, especially since this game starts at 8pm and the snow starts 12 hours earlier (and the field is heated). Winds could be a factor, but with the Eagles speed, it may not have as much of an impact as you think.
 
Can someone kindly direct me to a link (ONE page) with the complete picture of key injuries tomorrow?

I'm not talking about the official injury report. I'm talking about one comprehensive update on key players, such as MJD being unlikely to play.

Trying to figure out my final card for tomorrow and I'm not in the mood to check a million different sites.

 
Raider Nation said:
Can someone kindly direct me to a link (ONE page) with the complete picture of key injuries tomorrow?I'm not talking about the official injury report. I'm talking about one comprehensive update on key players, such as MJD being unlikely to play.Trying to figure out my final card for tomorrow and I'm not in the mood to check a million different sites.
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Are you a fbg subscriber? If so, their players in the news updates are all I pretty much read. And I do venture into the shark pool if I am looking into something.
 
sportsbook.com playing the teaser protection game on NE AND SD...not good, not good at all

They're a pretty square book, to see them doing this is a bad sign

ETA: should have stayed away from the PC last night, i played AZ +7 2h last night to protect my teasers on dallas...i got middled by the books :goodposting:

 
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lumpy19 said:
final teaser listdal -7Sf +2.5NE -8Oak +3Den +3SD -7.5NO +2.5I have NYG and Jax in there but they've fallen out of range now, my fault for playing them early. tough week with the holidays.side playsGB -3(-105)
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I understand why the Jags are out, but why are the Giants +3 out while Den +3 is still in? Also, the Jets now qualify at +2.5, no?
 
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Sportsbetting has Akers U9.5 pts and Longwell U7.5 pts available...both reasonable bets in decent weather...in a blizzard?

 
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