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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
for those with an sia acct and like GT. They have +3 even or -2.5 +181. I bet the latter but both are good.
Huge Card for me today...NFLRyan under 242.5 passing yardsBrees over 295.5 passing yardsMeacham over 35.5 Rec yardsVilma over 8.5 tacklesNBANJ Nets +6.5GS over 205NCAAIndiana-7Pitt -7.5
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Reason number 235 why I really don't like watching games I bet on. GT doing everything they can to give the game away.
unreal
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Yep also holding GT to score 1st 2h -145, first score a td -185, +3 -115, and +140 ml for 2h. Running well.
lumpy19
Footballguy
3 of your 4 bets are on GT, pretty easy to see that if GT doesn't dominate the 2h you're screwed.you seem to do this a lot and then complain about running bad, when all of your bets are correlated it's not hard to "run bad"
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Yeah well that's only half of the issue. First score a td which won I laid -180 and 5dimes was at -320. Obviously a great bet. GT to score 1st was an average bet. +140 ml and +3 -115 both beat 5 dimes and pinny by 20 cents. Very good bets too.
GT drives the field and fumbles on the 5 yd line. I understand they're correlated I'm not an idiot.
While I'm complaining. -180 for Ryan and Brees 1st pass complete both losers. Closed -240 and -220 at greek...
lumpy19
Footballguy
prop lines aren't efficient at all, beating the closing line doesn't mean ####.you might not be an idiot but it seems to me that you're not very good at this or don't have the right personality for gambling because you're posting like 10 million bets all on basically the same thing on all these obscure markets, they all lose and you call it running bad
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Certain prop markets are very efficient come on. I have been betting 1st pass complete for the last 4 years on nfl games. Highest I've ever seen and bet was Brady -240 in the NYG Super Bowl (loser). Lowest are each week at sportsbook. Vikings are -135 for tomorrow (I bet it). Brees and Ryan rightly should be around -210/-220. I laid -180 at SB a few days ago. This is a very efficient market, albeit somewhat risky. Good example from tonight was a dropped ball and a tipped pass. Those things happen, I complain but they really don't get to me.
2h next score a td is about as efficient as the prop market gets - I don't understand why you wouldn't think so. Pinny has these bets on the 1h and the 2h isn't very hard to deduct whether the number should be moved or not. Two option teams who typically always go for it on 4th down with bad FG kickers should not be -180 for next score a td. 5dimes had live betting and I saw a -375 and -390 for next score TD.
The inefficient markets are the receptions and yardage numbers, imo.
And to make my point I'm not going to come in here and brag about getting lucky with past posted bets, that's stupid. I have had a lot of good beats, but in gambling it always feel like we get unlucky way more then we get lucky.
2h next score a td is about as efficient as the prop market gets - I don't understand why you wouldn't think so. Pinny has these bets on the 1h and the 2h isn't very hard to deduct whether the number should be moved or not. Two option teams who typically always go for it on 4th down with bad FG kickers should not be -180 for next score a td. 5dimes had live betting and I saw a -375 and -390 for next score TD.
The inefficient markets are the receptions and yardage numbers, imo.
And to make my point I'm not going to come in here and brag about getting lucky with past posted bets, that's stupid. I have had a lot of good beats, but in gambling it always feel like we get unlucky way more then we get lucky.
lumpy19
Footballguy
what is your definition of efficient market? It's certainly different than mine.keep fleecing sportsbook on those pass completions...i played around with it last year and it was a loser....but if you've been beating it for 4 years and somehow your limits haven't been cut and they haven't adjusted at all kudos to you.
modogg
Footballguy
not sure of all of your others, but i tailed along with the Ryan under and this one. Great call
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
I would define efficient as something that game to game doesn't really change much. For example, next Sunday night we get the Rams and Seahawks. 1st pass complete at greek or 5dimes will probably be -190 for Bradford and -160/-170 for Whitehurst. Those numbers won't really move and are pretty efficient. Your not going to make money in the longrun betting into these numbers. But, at SB we may get -140 for Whitehurst and -170 for Bradford. Beating the greek by 20 cents is +ev. I for one have never ever bet 1st pass incomplete.
There was 3 consecutive weeks at sportsbook about a month ago where the 1st pass complete were all winners. Probably 9/10 in a row. Overall they are profitable but the variance sucks.
If you recall the Zona/GB playoff game a year ago when the game was 51-45 AZ in OT. I bet 1st pass complete for both qbs and they both lost. Final statlines for each:
Rodgers 28/42 for 423 and 4tds
Warner 29/33 for 379 and 5tds
#### happens sometimes.
There was 3 consecutive weeks at sportsbook about a month ago where the 1st pass complete were all winners. Probably 9/10 in a row. Overall they are profitable but the variance sucks.
If you recall the Zona/GB playoff game a year ago when the game was 51-45 AZ in OT. I bet 1st pass complete for both qbs and they both lost. Final statlines for each:
Rodgers 28/42 for 423 and 4tds
Warner 29/33 for 379 and 5tds
#### happens sometimes.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
I am enjoying both the game, especially if the first half under holds, and the lumpy/MP "debate". Lots of popcorn tonight!
All over the 2nd half over, btw...
All over the 2nd half over, btw...
haha, nice work. only ones i am winning......lol..not sure of all of your others, but i tailed along with the Ryan under and this one. Great call
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
2H, u24½
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
I thought things would finally open up but no....great call, nice hit.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
OH NO YOU DIDN'T!!!Here comes the explosion.I thought things would finally open up but no....great call, nice hit.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
OH NO YOU DIDN'T!!!Here comes the explosion.I thought things would finally open up but no....great call, nice hit.
25 points in the 4th quarter??? No way!
modogg
Footballguy
Nice play on the UFC card this Saturday, that is already moving. I put a bunch on it at -135, and checked back about an hour and a half later and it was -170 (all at sportsbook), so hopefully you guys with multiple books can find it at a nice price somewhere. I like it still at -170, but it isn't as pretty:
Jeremy Stephens over Marcus Davis
I'm not even sure how Davis can win this, less then 2% chance he could KO Stephens or submit him. A very good bet i'm quite confident in
Jeremy Stephens over Marcus Davis
I'm not even sure how Davis can win this, less then 2% chance he could KO Stephens or submit him. A very good bet i'm quite confident in
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Maybe a sucker play but I am VERY VERY big on the NY Giants -4 at Washington this sunday.
C. Rogers is most likely out, Orapko might play, and we already know Washington is in "Evaluate for next year mode".
Giants although terrible lately are still playing at the same time as GB hoping for a win and a GB loss so they can get in the playoffs.
All the recent games Washington has played have been very close so I am not surprised the line is so low but I still really love the Giants on this play big!
C. Rogers is most likely out, Orapko might play, and we already know Washington is in "Evaluate for next year mode".
Giants although terrible lately are still playing at the same time as GB hoping for a win and a GB loss so they can get in the playoffs.
All the recent games Washington has played have been very close so I am not surprised the line is so low but I still really love the Giants on this play big!
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
lump,
I bumped an old Blake Griffin thread. He's getting plenty of FFA props.
So now you can change your avatar from that creepy ******* to a hot blonde with big cans. TIA for your expected cooperation.
I bumped an old Blake Griffin thread. He's getting plenty of FFA props.
So now you can change your avatar from that creepy ******* to a hot blonde with big cans. TIA for your expected cooperation.
could have been much worse than 4-4-1.....
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
For those of you who like UCONN +17 against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl... please tell me WHY. I'm begging you. Help me understand.
I don't live far from UCONN. They bring all their games on local cable every Saturday and I always have them on one of the TVs. They are a scrappy, solid, fundamental football team with a good running game a defense that hustles. That said, IF THE SOONERS FEEL LIKE PLAYING, and that to me is the issue, there is no doubt in my mind that the Huskies don't belong on the same field with them. I know about Stoops being 2-5 in BCS bowl games. Is that a trend or is it just one of those odd things?
I can't be the only one who sees a 52-10 game here. I'm ready to bet my entire family on OU.
I don't live far from UCONN. They bring all their games on local cable every Saturday and I always have them on one of the TVs. They are a scrappy, solid, fundamental football team with a good running game a defense that hustles. That said, IF THE SOONERS FEEL LIKE PLAYING, and that to me is the issue, there is no doubt in my mind that the Huskies don't belong on the same field with them. I know about Stoops being 2-5 in BCS bowl games. Is that a trend or is it just one of those odd things?
I can't be the only one who sees a 52-10 game here. I'm ready to bet my entire family on OU.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
UCONN can run and they play defense, under is the bet in this game.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
So you think the Huskies can stop Jones from throwing for 5 bills? I don't see it. OK is not South Florida or Pitt.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I think I was wrong on two OU sides this year, the losses to Mizzou and A&M. Was right on Air Force, Utah State and Okie State.I would be surprised if OU blows UCONN out, but wouldn't be surprised if they cover. 31-10, 31-14, 28-10 or 35-14 at worst. But I don't think it's a good bet, too much changes over four weeks and OU has the tendency to have big 2nd half letdowns because they are so young. But they will have a new guy calling the plays in this game, and I would imagine new wrinkles. That also lends to the unpredictability, which again leads me to the under.
ETA: I hope you are right though, I'll be at the game and I'd like a 52-0 win for OU so I can start drinking early.
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Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Baylor/Illinois over 63. Neither of these teams play any defense at all, weather is not a factor and Baylor in particular is motivated to play in this game.
Tomorrow WVa/NCSU over 49, both teams have very sharp offenses and skill position players.
Tomorrow WVa/NCSU over 49, both teams have very sharp offenses and skill position players.
cheese
Footballguy
bump for RN. I wouldnt blame you for taking OK, but there is definitely a case to be made for Uconn covering.As for Jones throwing for 500, it wont come close and it has nothing to do with Uconns defense. They are a mediocre defense that is never on the field.
cheese
Footballguy
Like Iowa/Missouri under tonight. Iowa has all kinds of off the field problems with its skill position players, but Iowa will always find a way to hang in games. I think their only shot tonight is to hold down Missouri and keep them out of the end zone. Normally I'd like Missouri side as well, but I've seen Iowa win games like this too many times.
What are you guys thinking for tonight?
What are you guys thinking for tonight?
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In a relatively meaningless bowl game between two teams unfamiliar with each other, I am inclined to go on the over. I think we get the "pro bowl" mentality where neither team gives it all that much thought and some big plays are made.Iowa's suspensions have been well known for a while now and they've had a lot of time to prepare without their rb and wr. Other guys have had time to take their reps. May not be a shoot out here, but I think we get a 28-24 type game here.small plays on both overs tonightbtw Iowa is playing Missouri
cheese
Footballguy
haha thanks I will edit. Looking at both games at once and typing the wrong team. GLAlso, Purdue and Michigan are playing at 2 today?
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Great coach in Edsall who will do everything to shorten the game and keep his team in it. No pressure on Uconn as they couldn't even sell their allotment of tickets. They have nothing to lose here in this game. Surely I will not lay 17 with two bcs conference teams, it's not something I like to do. Sure OU may win by 50, but I'll take my chances UConn plays hard and keeps it close.Raider Nation said:
Just my 2 cents.
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MarshallPlan
Footballguy
For the nfl game tonight. SIA still has one pending bet and it's Minn/Philly +1100 to have the game with the lowest pts. Now the lowest point total so far was 30 pts. So I stand to make a pretty good amount if it stays under 30. I could play over 35.5 -240 but that's not much of a hedge as I could lose both. Still trying to decide how to handle this one, but will probably let it ride and hope for the best.
Also, there's one prop in that game I really, really like. I'm waiting for a few more books to have it out before I play it. I'll post it here.
Also, there's one prop in that game I really, really like. I'm waiting for a few more books to have it out before I play it. I'll post it here.
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Thanks for the input re: UCONN/OKLAHOMA, fellas.
Correct me if I'm wrong. Won't the crowd by something like 80-90% Sooner Red?
Correct me if I'm wrong. Won't the crowd by something like 80-90% Sooner Red?
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
I just maxed this at 3 books. Vick under rush yds. Played at 52.5, 50.5, and 47.5.
Minnesota doesn't allow many qb rush yds as it is. Rodgers ran it 6 times for 35 yds, Romo had 31, and that's about it. Yeah, those two aren't Vick but that's analyzing it from the Minny standpoint.
Mainly I am betting this from the philly standpoint. Reid has made it knows he thinks Vick has been taking too many unnecessary late hits - probably rightfully so. The Eagles should cruise in this game and Reid will really want to protect Vick, especially on a cold night. No sense in Vick running much and taking unnecessary hits. He has went over this number 4 times this year (in 10 gms). 3 in close games and the other was the Washington game in which he was unreal.
I don't think the Eagles are willing to take a risk tonight with Vick running much. Granted this bet could be lost on one big play but that's why we call it gambling.
Minnesota doesn't allow many qb rush yds as it is. Rodgers ran it 6 times for 35 yds, Romo had 31, and that's about it. Yeah, those two aren't Vick but that's analyzing it from the Minny standpoint.
Mainly I am betting this from the philly standpoint. Reid has made it knows he thinks Vick has been taking too many unnecessary late hits - probably rightfully so. The Eagles should cruise in this game and Reid will really want to protect Vick, especially on a cold night. No sense in Vick running much and taking unnecessary hits. He has went over this number 4 times this year (in 10 gms). 3 in close games and the other was the Washington game in which he was unreal.
I don't think the Eagles are willing to take a risk tonight with Vick running much. Granted this bet could be lost on one big play but that's why we call it gambling.
cheese
Footballguy
Its almost impossible to say. You'd have to be insane to buy through either ticket office, so I'm not sure what to make of the fact that UConn can't sell theirs. It could mean nobody is making the trip or it could just mean they know how to use ebay.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Yeah at least 90%.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Oklahoma is listed on the bottom in the Vegas rotation, so I'm assuming they are the "home" team, which means they'll be wearing the Crimson jerseys.Don't laugh.... I'll take every psychological edge I can get. 90% Sooners fans.... home jerseys.... it *should* feel like a true HOME game.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Canada -3.5 WJHC
Russia +.5 -155
Russia +.5 -155
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Warehouse Nasty
Footballguy
It will feel like a morgue just as much as it will a home game. The OU fan base isn't going to be pumped up to go to Arizona to watch their team play UCONN; you'll be able to get tickets for $20 outside the stadium. And I highly doubt their players are excited about this match up either. UCONN isn't really that good of a team. OU is absolutely better and may win by 30. But motivation is massive in these bowl games and you'll lose more bets than you'll win by laying 17 on a team that is likely much less motivated than their opponents.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
They are on the visitor sideline, but will wear their dark jerseys.
Why wouldn't the fan base be pumped? It is a BCS game on national TV and it is very likely OU will be the preseason #1 next year if they win this game. Also given their last two Fiesta Bowl appearances and their BCS record, OU will be very ready for this game. This is a young team who had to win out to get this far, they aren't going to overlook UConn and I'm sure they are pumped to be back trying to defend the program's honor. UConn is certainly going to be more motivated, they've never gotten this far before and they get to play one of the most storied programs in NCAA history on national TV. But that only goes so far, and I'm quite sure OU will be pumped and prepared to play this game. I wouldn't lay the 17 though.
John Bender
Footballguy
Uconn is now advertising that if you can't go to the game, you can buy tickets and they will donate them to local servicemen who will "promise to root for UConn" at the game
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Actually I have two extra tickets to this game. Link to tickets to servicemen? Gracias.Uconn is now advertising that if you can't go to the game, you can buy tickets and they will donate them to local servicemen who will "promise to root for UConn" at the game
John Bender
Footballguy
not sure if you can transfer already bought tickets because I gather this was just a program to get rid of the ones they had, but the link is uconnbowls.com I believe.Let me know how it turns out GB.Actually I have two extra tickets to this game. Link to tickets to servicemen? Gracias.Uconn is now advertising that if you can't go to the game, you can buy tickets and they will donate them to local servicemen who will "promise to root for UConn" at the game
