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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (16 Viewers)

Garrett said:
Trying to chase steam again this morning, just locked inLouisiana Tech +2Jacksonville State +2.5Loyola Marymount -3.5Those are all -118 vig at Pinnacle (opened at -105), local offering -110 still.
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Meh, 3-2 so far. Loyola Marymount falling apart late in the game seemed to hurt everyone.2 Today...Niagara +12.5 (-118 vig at Pinnacle right now)Siena +4 (-119 vig at Pinnacle)
 
Here's one I'm trying to figure out. Pinny has Rodgers -120 to throw the first int. They also have Rodgers -159 to throw an int and Ben -165 to throw an int. They have Ben -188 to throw a td before an int and Rodgers at -210.

Why is Rodgers favored to throw the first int when he's less of a fav to actully throw one? And he's a bigger fav to throw a td before int? Doesn't make sense to me. I doubt it, but is Pinny telling us GB more likely to get the ball first?

 
SB props out. I won't give out all I played until I get my fair share at various books. I will give one that I really like though.

Masthay no touchback -210

 
Super Bowl XLV - Super Bowl XLV - What will be the result of the first coaches challenge in the game?

Wager is official once either coach challenges a play.

Play Overturned

-125

Play Stands

-105
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Thoughts on the above? Looks pretty good to me.
 
I can already tell this is going to be a lame year for prop betting. Greek doesn't even have anything up and it's Friday night. Nobody does for that matter and if they do they are copying off of Pinnacle. I wish I could take a week long nap and wake up Sunday morning when the public is betting.

At this time last year I had nearly 4x as much money wagered already. :confused:

 
gmbacm said:
Havent gambled in a while and emptied all my accounts out a few years ago. Looking to get back in - whats the best money in/out method? (Im from the neteller days)Have old accounts I assume are still active I can redeposit to at places like pinnacle, canbet, olympic and a couple others I cant think of - any new books I should be looking at or stick with those?
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Well, you're 1 for 3 on books still around for US players.
 
MarshallPlan said:
ttiger72 said:
Super Bowl XLV - Super Bowl XLV - What will be the result of the first coaches challenge in the game?

Wager is official once either coach challenges a play.

Play Overturned

-125

Play Stands

-105
Click to expand...
Thoughts on the above? Looks pretty good to me.
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Yes, I agree. Not sure there's a huge advantage there though. I am waiting for better possibly.
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I'm not sure you'll see better. The advantage there is that has to be considerable evidence to overturn the play on the field - so from a blind standpoint -105 looks ok. Problem is you just don't know the context.
 
RedRaiders said:
MarshallPlan said:
ttiger72 said:
Super Bowl XLV - Super Bowl XLV - What will be the result of the first coaches challenge in the game?

Wager is official once either coach challenges a play.

Play Overturned

-125

Play Stands

-105
Click to expand...
Thoughts on the above? Looks pretty good to me.
Click to expand...
Yes, I agree. Not sure there's a huge advantage there though. I am waiting for better possibly.
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I'm not sure you'll see better. The advantage there is that has to be considerable evidence to overturn the play on the field - so from a blind standpoint -105 looks ok. Problem is you just don't know the context.
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I agree. If we don't see better I don't bet it. I bet +125 overturned 2 years ago so there's a chance we see some sort of line that is off (although I'm not sure what "off" is)
 
Well looks like the Obama bet is going to be a push - he said something to the point of "I'm staying neutral, may the best team win" today.

 
got some live MMA dogs this weekend, took each and going for the lottery ticket win:

1/29/2011 11:00 PM Strikeforce Fighting 2201 Robbie Lawler* +190 vs Ronaldo Souza

1/29/2011 10:00 PM Strikeforce Fighting 2301 Scott Carson* +260 vs Herschel Walker

1/28/2011 11:00 PM MMA Fighting 3101 Abe Wagner* +425 vs Tim Sylvia

i got $15 to win over $800, may actually put more on it

 
stuff I bet today - all at sportsbook

Jones under 11 rec yds +800

Kuhn longest rec ov 4.5 -115

Wallace ov 24.5 long rec -115

Harrison ov 6 tackles -120

Redman under 3.5 rush -160

Redman un 3.5 1st carry -135 (bet it on accident, still not that bad)

Un 4 Packers to have a carry +130

Over 3 Steelers to score -160

Under 7.5 Steelers to have a rec -180

 
RedRaiders said:
Un 4 Packers to have a carry +130What's the thought here? Seems like a push at best.
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Yeah I know. I just couldn't see anyone actually being the 5th guy to get a carry and lose it. And I think there's a good possibility Kuhn and/or Jackson don't get a carry. Kuhn at 2.5 carries, Jackson at 3. If the Pack are playing from behind they may only have 2 ball carriers.
 
Australian Open Finals. I like both matchups here, quite a bit actually...

Na Li is a great price, imo, up around +240. Clijsters is solid, experienced and deserves to be favored of course, but also very vulnerable. Yes, she's won Granny's, but let's face it, she's had a kid since her prime and is no spring chicken. Li is peaking and capable and it's not like we're facing Serena Williams here; it can happen. Chinese finally win a Grand Slam, I can see it now. :rolleyes:

And I think Djokovic is reasonably priced, for a fave. He's had an extra day of rest, including a match Murray had to gut out -- Ferrer really pushed him. Speaking of peaking, Novak is right there and on the verge of being the best tennis player in the world. He got by the biggest obstacle already in Federer and without Nadal making it, he becomes the prohibitive favorite, imo. Past records (vs Murray) don't matter much at this point, it will be about who's sharpest. And I think that's Djokovic, besides being the better player now. He's like -150, btw...

 
Clijsters is actually younger than Li Na. At those odds I think you can't bet Kim, but I think she wins.

I think Djokovic wins tomorrow night

 
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Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Australian Open Finals. I like both matchups here, quite a bit actually...

Na Li is a great price, imo, up around +240. Clijsters is solid, experienced and deserves to be favored of course, but also very vulnerable. Yes, she's won Granny's, but let's face it, she's had a kid since her prime and is no spring chicken. Li is peaking and capable and it's not like we're facing Serena Williams here; it can happen. Chinese finally win a Grand Slam, I can see it now. :lmao:

And I think Djokovic is reasonably priced, for a fave. He's had an extra day of rest, including a match Murray had to gut out -- Ferrer really pushed him. Speaking of peaking, Novak is right there and on the verge of being the best tennis player in the world. He got by the biggest obstacle already in Federer and without Nadal making it, he becomes the prohibitive favorite, imo. Past records (vs Murray) don't matter much at this point, it will be about who's sharpest. And I think that's Djokovic, besides being the better player now. He's like -150, btw...
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:lmao: Still can't figure out the attraction to watching tennis, but I like my new boy Djokovic. I am definitely in with him, and will sprinkle a little on Na Li
 
modogg said:
got some live MMA dogs this weekend, took each and going for the lottery ticket win:

1/29/2011 11:00 PM Strikeforce Fighting 2201 Robbie Lawler* +190 vs Ronaldo Souza

1/29/2011 10:00 PM Strikeforce Fighting 2301 Scott Carson* +260 vs Herschel Walker

1/28/2011 11:00 PM MMA Fighting 3101 Abe Wagner* +425 vs Tim Sylvia

i got $15 to win over $800, may actually put more on it
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Nice call on Wagner Mo!! Wish I would have gotten down - none of my local books had a line on this event last night.
 
Here's some plays, likely will be posting more later:

2u UC Davis -4

2u E.Kentucky -4.5

1u rest:

St. Louis +1.5

New Mex +2

Northwestern +11

Tulsa +1

Davidson +3.5

Morehead -3.5

YTD 133-104 56.1% +23.35u

 
bmj87 said:
Here's some plays, likely will be posting more later:2u UC Davis -42u E.Kentucky -4.51u rest:St. Louis +1.5New Mex +2Northwestern +11Tulsa +1Davidson +3.5Morehead -3.5YTD 133-104 56.1% +23.35u
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Just an FYI .... Shurna is probably out for Northwestern. Nothing official yet, but he did suffer a concussion last game at Minnesota.
 
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Look for an offensive show in Big D

The Steelers’ and Packers’ defenses have made headlines all season for their stellar play, but it’s their offenses that have hit their stride in recent weeks. RealScouts, a team of former NFL scouts, breaks down the Super Bowl matchup and explains why this could be a high-scoring affair:

The last meeting was all about offense. These teams met in December 2009 at Heinz Field, 37-36 Steelers win at that featured nearly 1,000 yards of total offense—including 848 passing yards—and nine total touchdowns. Can it happen again? The coaches will have fixed the defensive problems that led to those numbers, but because running against either of these units will be tough, this could become another shootout.

The offenses will be prepared for their opponents. The defensive coordinators in this game, the Steelers’ **** LeBeau and the Packers’ Dom Capers, were on Bill Cowher’s Steelers staff together from 1992-94, and they run the same basic defensive system. Quarterbacks Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers practice every day against a unit similar to the one they’ll face in the Super Bowl.

When Pittsburgh has the ball, look for:

The Steelers to emphasize Rashard Mendenhall. The Steelers’ offensive line has been devastated by injury, including last week’s loss of Pro Bowl rookie center Maurkice Pouncey to an ankle injury. To reduce potential protection problems against the Packers’ extensive blitz schemes, Pittsburgh likely will look to build on a running game that exploded last week against the Jets’ third-ranked run defense.

The Steelers to move the pocket. When the Steelers do pass, they will look to avoid the interior pressure likely to come at backup center Doug Legursky. Roethlisberger likes to get outside, so look for more rollout and bootleg action from the shotgun. His ability to keep his eyes downfield and complete throws on the run makes this a viable plan.

The Packers to attack the A gaps. Packers nose tackle B.J. Raji has been a beast in the playoffs and will present a big challenge for Legursky. Also expect blitzes from inside linebackers Desmond Bishop and A.J. Hawk. They’ll rush the A gaps to try to overload the protection schemes and break down the pocket around Roethlisberger. The Packers will have to be careful to keep him contained, though; Roethlisberger likes to release to his right and get the ball downfield.

A third-down struggle. Roethlisberger had the No. 2 third-down passer rating in the league this season, and because he is so good outside the pocket, it will be imperative for the coverage to hold up on the back end of the Packers’ defense. Look for a linebacker like Clay Matthews to spy on Roethlisberger, allowing the defensive backs to focus on the receivers downfield and remain in coverage. The Packers have the personnel to create coverage sacks if they play it right.

When Green Bay has the ball, look for:

The Packers to pass to set up the run. James Starks has sparked the running game for the Packers in recent weeks, but like the Jets, they will struggle to run against this Steelers defense early. Expect the Packers to use Rodgers’ arm to take shots downfield in the hopes of backing defenders out of the box and setting up runs for Starks later.

The Packers to find the escape lanes for Rodgers. One danger of the zone blitz scheme both defenses use is that it creates holes underneath. The goal is to get to the quarterback before those holes become obvious, but Rodgers has enough mobility to extend plays with his legs, and if he can find the open lanes, he can tear off long runs. Rodgers has 12 carries for 56 yards (4.7 yards per carry) in the playoffs.

The Steelers to bring interior pressure on Rodgers. The Bears had success against the Packers in the second half last week by bringing pressure up the middle in Rodgers’ face. The Steelers will do the same thing, looking to force quick throws and make Rodgers uncomfortable and throw off his back foot.

The Steelers to get physical with the Packers’ receivers. Long considered the weakness of the Steelers’ defense, cornerbacks Ike Taylor, William Gay and Bryant McFadden have played very well recently. All three are well-built, physical players, so expect press coverage and physical play at the line. If they can knock the receivers off their routes, it will disrupt Rodgers’ timing and create more sack opportunities for the pass rush.
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