FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (9 Viewers)

[NajehHejan]

Just spent an hour looking at the SB props. Biggest lock I see:Total Rushing Yards - Ben Roethlisberger Over 12.5 Rushing Yards -120 I don't see a huge rushing day out of Big Ben but 13+ seems like free money. He could easily go 4-13 no problem. GB has a solid D/secondary so I could see the Pack blanketing Wallace and limiting old man Ward/young bucks Sanders/Brown and Ben having to break the pocket a few times.EASY MONEY. I may go in for 10u.

Week Date Opp Rush Yds Avg TD6 Oct 17 CLE 1 5 5.0 0 7 Oct 24 @MIA 5 1 0.2 08 Oct 31 @NO 1 -1 -1.09 Nov 8 @CIN 5 13 2.6 010 Nov 14 NE 1 12 12.0 011 Nov 21 OAK 3 55 18.3 112 Nov 28 @BUF 1 18 18.0 013 Dec 5 @BAL 1 -1 -1.0 0 14 Dec 12 CIN 3 23 7.7 015 Dec 19 NYJ 2 25 12.5 016 Dec 23 CAR 7 2 0.3 1 17 Jan 2 @CLE 4 24 6.0 0Looks like Ben eclipsed 12.5 rushing yards in 6 of 12 games. Maybe it is a coin toss and not the lock I had envisioned. There is an uptick though for later in the year.Still, I love the 1-18 against the Bills and the 2-25 against the Jets. Could easily see a stat line like that.

Looked at the two playoff games. Big Ben had 11 rushing yards against the Ravens and 21 rushing yards against the Jets. In the Ravens game, he had 13 rushing yards until the end of the game when he had two kneels for -1 each that took him down to 11. Could you imagine going in heavy on -12.5 and he has 13 until two kneel downs? Forgot about the dreaded kneel down possibility. Over 12.5 still seems like easy money. Ben is a fierce competitor, I don’t see him not running if it will help his team.

 

[MarshallPlan]

Just spent an hour looking at the SB props. Biggest lock I see:Total Rushing Yards - Ben Roethlisberger Over 12.5 Rushing Yards -120 I don't see a huge rushing day out of Big Ben but 13+ seems like free money. He could easily go 4-13 no problem. GB has a solid D/secondary so I could see the Pack blanketing Wallace and limiting old man Ward/young bucks Sanders/Brown and Ben having to break the pocket a few times.EASY MONEY. I may go in for 10u.

Week Date Opp Rush Yds Avg TD6 Oct 17 CLE 1 5 5.0 0 7 Oct 24 @MIA 5 1 0.2 08 Oct 31 @NO 1 -1 -1.09 Nov 8 @CIN 5 13 2.6 010 Nov 14 NE 1 12 12.0 011 Nov 21 OAK 3 55 18.3 112 Nov 28 @BUF 1 18 18.0 013 Dec 5 @BAL 1 -1 -1.0 0 14 Dec 12 CIN 3 23 7.7 015 Dec 19 NYJ 2 25 12.5 016 Dec 23 CAR 7 2 0.3 1 17 Jan 2 @CLE 4 24 6.0 0Looks like Ben eclipsed 12.5 rushing yards in 6 of 12 games. Maybe it is a coin toss and not the lock I had envisioned. There is an uptick though for later in the year.Still, I love the 1-18 against the Bills and the 2-25 against the Jets. Could easily see a stat line like that.

Looked at the two playoff games. Big Ben had 11 rushing yards against the Ravens and 21 rushing yards against the Jets. In the Ravens game, he had 13 rushing yards until the end of the game when he had two kneels for -1 each that took him down to 11. Could you imagine going in heavy on -12.5 and he has 13 until two kneel downs? Forgot about the dreaded kneel down possibility. Over 12.5 still seems like easy money. Ben is a fierce competitor, I don’t see him not running if it will help his team.

If you like it bet it now. It's going nowhere but up.

 

[bmj87]

1u Davidson -10

ytd 142-107 57% +29.95u

 

[tjnc09]

utah +4.5, i jumped in at 4, hope it doesn't land on 4

Williams is out and Golden State plays well at home. I don't have a side, but expect GS to win.

as long as they win by 1-3 i know they're out, line moved from gs -1.5 to 4.5.....LBJ on the cavs is worth that much.....no other player is worth 3pts. I play this situation a lot, the market over reacts to player injuries. very few players across all sports have an effect on the team/game. maybe a goalie in hockey....definitely not a single offensive baseball player and maybe a quarterback in the NFL, thats it.

Do you have your W-L for playing line movements when the starting PG is injured? In general, I agree with your other examples. Baseball is all about pitching and the overreaction to a RB injured is usually great.PManning led the league in passing attempts, but still only accounted for 31% of the Colts plays (pass attempts / (pass att + run att + def plays + ST plays). Yes, this number is more realistically like 40% since his ability to complete more passes than Painter leads to longer offensive drives/passing opportunities.Not much of a hockey fan, but the decrease in goalie talent can be "hidden" if that team is better defensively and score easier.I can't think of a position more pivotal in sports than a PG so that's why I hope you have that broken out from your other injury/line movement plays. Deron Williams career mpg is 35.5 so he can account to up to 75% of a game's plays. It's easy to quantify the drop off in scoring, assists, steals etc. But there are so many other aspects that aren't quantified such as ability to change shot (as oppose to official block) or being able to penetrate the paint so that the defense collapses and a 2 pass assist is created. Williams is a big PG and usually creates defensive problems for smaller guards. Bell and Watson not so much. If Deron still isn't worth 3 points in your opinion, you still must take into account the drop in talent from the 10-15 minutes the 3rd string PG playing to give the 2nd string PG a rest (as opposed to 2nd giving 1st a rest). My opinion would still be the same even if GS didn't cover last night. I personally would never (or very rarely) tail in this situation *only* because the line moved 3 points.

 

[Romulan]

1u Davidson -10ytd 142-107 57% +29.95u

Tailing thanks.

 

[southeastjerome]

BJ Raji under 0.5 sacks -105

 

[MarshallPlan]

BJ Raji under 0.5 sacks -105

Good bet, I made it too. Two more good ones only at SB.Bradshaw and Ben from SB 40 to have more INTs then Ben from this year (you will see it on there). In essence, I am getting Ben un 1 int +105 and un 1 -115.

 

[[icon]]

BJ Raji under 0.5 sacks -105

At SB? Where?

 

[lumpy19]

utah +4.5, i jumped in at 4, hope it doesn't land on 4

Williams is out and Golden State plays well at home. I don't have a side, but expect GS to win.

as long as they win by 1-3 i know they're out, line moved from gs -1.5 to 4.5.....LBJ on the cavs is worth that much.....no other player is worth 3pts. I play this situation a lot, the market over reacts to player injuries. very few players across all sports have an effect on the team/game. maybe a goalie in hockey....definitely not a single offensive baseball player and maybe a quarterback in the NFL, thats it.

Do you have your W-L for playing line movements when the starting PG is injured? In general, I agree with your other examples. Baseball is all about pitching and the overreaction to a RB injured is usually great.PManning led the league in passing attempts, but still only accounted for 31% of the Colts plays (pass attempts / (pass att + run att + def plays + ST plays). Yes, this number is more realistically like 40% since his ability to complete more passes than Painter leads to longer offensive drives/passing opportunities.Not much of a hockey fan, but the decrease in goalie talent can be "hidden" if that team is better defensively and score easier.I can't think of a position more pivotal in sports than a PG so that's why I hope you have that broken out from your other injury/line movement plays. Deron Williams career mpg is 35.5 so he can account to up to 75% of a game's plays. It's easy to quantify the drop off in scoring, assists, steals etc. But there are so many other aspects that aren't quantified such as ability to change shot (as oppose to official block) or being able to penetrate the paint so that the defense collapses and a 2 pass assist is created. Williams is a big PG and usually creates defensive problems for smaller guards. Bell and Watson not so much. If Deron still isn't worth 3 points in your opinion, you still must take into account the drop in talent from the 10-15 minutes the 3rd string PG playing to give the 2nd string PG a rest (as opposed to 2nd giving 1st a rest). My opinion would still be the same even if GS didn't cover last night. I personally would never (or very rarely) tail in this situation *only* because the line moved 3 points.

I don't have the info broken out for PG in the NBA. I can see the argument and don't completely disagree that deron williams may be worth 3 pts but I still make the play on a line move like that in the NBA. The game lines in the NBA are IMO harder to beat than any other sport.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I do very little NBA as you know but I like a play tonight. The LA Griffins. I follow them enough to know the team pretty well so I can't pass on them only laying 3 at home tonight. Yes, I know Gordon's out. Or maybe I should say, he is not what Deron Williams is to the Jazz. And that the Clippers have have Davis and Foye; anyway, they're fine.

Clips are a different team these days, and this time it's for real. Take away that first month of the season (which is totally understandable) and you have a winning, playoff-caliber team that finally has some swagger and desire. They've even established a home court advantage, which is unheard of for them; kind of a strong one too. They are going for their longest home-win streak since last century so I'm all over them only laying 3 here.

 

[MarshallPlan]

BJ Raji under 0.5 sacks -105

At SB? Where?

I took this at sia at -105, not sure about the previous poster. Worse prices available at 5dimes, bodog.

 

[southeastjerome]

BJ Raji under 0.5 sacks -105

At SB? Where?

sports interaction

 

[lumpy19]

Props to greek for stepping it up, $500 limits on superbowl props

 

[MarshallPlan]

Props to greek for stepping it up, $500 limits on superbowl props

no props at all. Out after 8 days (3-4 days last year) and nearly every single one was copied off Pinnacle. Greek running scared.

 

[lumpy19]

Props to greek for stepping it up, $500 limits on superbowl props

no props at all. Out after 8 days (3-4 days last year) and nearly every single one was copied off Pinnacle. Greek running scared.

hmmm looking at the player props not a single line is the same as pinnaclelooking thru the options at sportsoptions and almost none of the lines are the same for what they have listed. There's even a 5c arb on pit to score a rushing td.

 

[MarshallPlan]

Props to greek for stepping it up, $500 limits on superbowl props

no props at all. Out after 8 days (3-4 days last year) and nearly every single one was copied off Pinnacle. Greek running scared.

hmmm looking at the player props not a single line is the same as pinnaclelooking thru the options at sportsoptions and almost none of the lines are the same for what they have listed. There's even a 5c arb on pit to score a rushing td.

So Pinny has Quarless un 18.5 -160. Because Greek opens him at 16.5 they didn't copy? Well, Greek has un 16.5 -145, which is the exact same. Antonio Brown the next guy on Pinny's board is the exact same. I think it's because greek knows it will get public money on these guys all on over, so it puts them a few yds higher with greater juice on the under for NOW. Surely this will change by gameday.Greek was open with SB props last year on the Monday after the championship games. They had mvp lines, first penalty, first FD a pass, etc. I bet them all at Greek. This year it took them a week, something tells me they didn't want any early action until Pinny was up nearly 4 days before them.

 

[lumpy19]

Props to greek for stepping it up, $500 limits on superbowl props

no props at all. Out after 8 days (3-4 days last year) and nearly every single one was copied off Pinnacle. Greek running scared.

hmmm looking at the player props not a single line is the same as pinnaclelooking thru the options at sportsoptions and almost none of the lines are the same for what they have listed. There's even a 5c arb on pit to score a rushing td.

So Pinny has Quarless un 18.5 -160. Because Greek opens him at 16.5 they didn't copy? Well, Greek has un 16.5 -145, which is the exact same. Antonio Brown the next guy on Pinny's board is the exact same. I think it's because greek knows it will get public money on these guys all on over, so it puts them a few yds higher with greater juice on the under for NOW. Surely this will change by gameday.Greek was open with SB props last year on the Monday after the championship games. They had mvp lines, first penalty, first FD a pass, etc. I bet them all at Greek. This year it took them a week, something tells me they didn't want any early action until Pinny was up nearly 4 days before them.

I'm not sure why you care so much....you stated earlier in the thread that you're betting more on gameday because your early bets last year got killed right?Either way almost all the books have the same lines....doesn't mean they're good lines. I'd rather see all the places copy each other and have higher limits.

 

[lumpy19]

My first SB prop bet...Hines Ward u3.5 rec -110 at bookmaker, max bet 1k

 

[MarshallPlan]

Early bets didn't do as good as gameday and day before the game, correct. Doesn't mean they weren't good though. Under 3.5 fgs +100, under 45.5 long fg even were very good. Some dumb ones I made though too.

I just don't understand why it took most books nearly a week to put out lines on a game lined at 3. How hard is it to put up simple game props that you have put up for 20 consecutive weeks? You have put out a number on Ben, Rodgers, Wallace for nearly 20 weeks what's so hard about making one this week? It's not like the total is 57 like last year, it's a simple line and total - it should be a simple line to put up.

 

[MarshallPlan]

Another I played at +115 sia and +120 bodog. Jackson more rec then Quarless.

 

[lumpy19]

Early bets didn't do as good as gameday and day before the game, correct. Doesn't mean they weren't good though. Under 3.5 fgs +100, under 45.5 long fg even were very good. Some dumb ones I made though too. I just don't understand why it took most books nearly a week to put out lines on a game lined at 3. How hard is it to put up simple game props that you have put up for 20 consecutive weeks? You have put out a number on Ben, Rodgers, Wallace for nearly 20 weeks what's so hard about making one this week? It's not like the total is 57 like last year, it's a simple line and total - it should be a simple line to put up.

Prob because they have a billion CBB games to line, NHL, NBA, australian open tennis, golf....and it's a dead week for football. Bookmaker had lines up by 1/26 and pinny by 1/27. not many people really care about the props that early, i bet on everything and i didn't care, didn't even really look at them. now that it's SB week it's more interesting.

 

[MarshallPlan]

Early bets didn't do as good as gameday and day before the game, correct. Doesn't mean they weren't good though. Under 3.5 fgs +100, under 45.5 long fg even were very good. Some dumb ones I made though too. I just don't understand why it took most books nearly a week to put out lines on a game lined at 3. How hard is it to put up simple game props that you have put up for 20 consecutive weeks? You have put out a number on Ben, Rodgers, Wallace for nearly 20 weeks what's so hard about making one this week? It's not like the total is 57 like last year, it's a simple line and total - it should be a simple line to put up.

Prob because they have a billion CBB games to line, NHL, NBA, australian open tennis, golf....and it's a dead week for football. Bookmaker had lines up by 1/26 and pinny by 1/27. not many people really care about the props that early, i bet on everything and i didn't care, didn't even really look at them. now that it's SB week it's more interesting.

I'm just asking why their lines were out day 1 last year and this year not until day 8? That's what confuses me. If they don't want to take early sharp money moving their lines into correct position that's understandable.

 

[MarshallPlan]

Another I've been waiting to post/bet.

1st missed fg wide left -120. Crosby's misses have technically been 1 left, 1 right, and 2 blocked. But, he's hit the left upright 3 other times bringing him to 4 left and 1 right.

Suisham has missed once left, once right this year. Going back to 2009 he missed 4 left and 2 right.

I think this should be higher then -120. I'm not sure of the overall numbers of right-footed FG kickers (no stats on it I could find) but I had the same bet last year and won.

 

[tjnc09]

Are there any other games besides Creighton Bradley changing times because of weather?

 

[lumpy19]

Are there any other games besides Creighton Bradley changing times because of weather?

the only other one i know of is kent state/western michigan tomorrow which has been postponed

 

[lumpy19]

Are there any other games besides Creighton Bradley changing times because of weather?

the only other one i know of is kent state/western michigan tomorrow which has been postponed

colorado/STL NHL game has now been postponed and the baylor/oklahoma NCAAB game has been postponed

 

[MarshallPlan]

Here's one. Shortest rush td ov 1.5 yds +125 (+130 at greek). I will then wait until gameday and likely get -115 or better on shortest td under 1.5 yds. Possibility of picking up both wagers if there's a 1 yd passing td. If not, minor scalp and free money.

 

[MarshallPlan]

Another one I don't get. Pitt sack number is un 3 -185. Lets call it 2.5 for arguments sake. Woodley and Harrison right on .5 sacks, that's 1 sack there. Where's the other sack and a half going to come from? These two are really the only consistent sack guys, Farrior would be next. I'm going to wait until square books lower their numbers on these guys and bet them both over.

 

[MarshallPlan]

At sportsbook - kind of surprised I missed these upon first glance. These are under past SB performances.

I bet all of Terry Bradshaw's Super Bowl props. I am in essence getting Ben un 1.5 tds at:

+100

+115

+115

+110

I will then just play Ben over 1.5 tds at the best price possible (at + odds) and take the free money.

Edit: I bet him over 1.5 +110. Not the best of prices but I don't have any other outs with better and I'm not waiting because this may be -110 on gameday.

 

[bmj87]

1u Mississippi +6.5

ytd 142-108 56.8% +28.85u

 

[bmj87]

At sportsbook - kind of surprised I missed these upon first glance. These are under past SB performances. I bet all of Terry Bradshaw's Super Bowl props. I am in essence getting Ben un 1.5 tds at:+100+115+115+110I will then just play Ben over 1.5 tds at the best price possible (at + odds) and take the free money.Edit: I bet him over 1.5 +110. Not the best of prices but I don't have any other outs with better and I'm not waiting because this may be -110 on gameday.

Good looking out on this, I missed it too...was looking to play u1.5 TD at the best price.

 

[nittanylion]

1u Mississippi +6.5ytd 142-108 56.8% +28.85u

As far as NCAA Hoops goes, the Conference I follow closely enough to bet during the regular Season is the SEC, as I'm a HUGE Arkansas fan, as I've mentioned before. I took a long look at Ole' Miss at Kentucky, but a longer one at Vanderbilt +4.5 at Florida, which is where my action is tonight. Line has moved to +4, but I'd still take it - Vandy doesn't look like a Team that's going to lose 2 in a row in SEC play, and they are STINGING MAD after getting beaten soundly at home by the Hogs on Saturday. The Commodores are a legit Top 25 Team, who stumbled and will be looking to bounce back. So is Florida, coming off a hard fought road loss at Miss St, and prior to that struggled vs SEC doormat Georgia at home, winning in double OT. In my opinion, the Gators are descending, while the Commodores are ascending...one of these 2 is going to have lost 2 straight by the end of tonight, and I think it's more likely to be the Gators. Small play, 1u at most.

 

[southeastjerome]

First NCAA non tourney game that I've ever bet on.

Penn St. +9 @ Illinois.

 

[PatsFanCT]

The Lakers seem like a mess right now. I took Houston at +380. Might be a nice little payout.

 

[tjnc09]

The Lakers seem like a mess right now. I took Houston at +380. Might be a nice little payout.

Why are they a mess? Sacramento is a new team with Cousins. Boston looked like a D2 school vs. Phoenix, both teams were looking ahead to Sunday. Then they lost to a top 5 teamFWIW, Jerry West questioned their defense late January. Next game they beat Utah 120-91 destroying them in 1st half.Mitch Kupchak said he would consider making a trade because LA isn't playing up to their reputation. LA will be motivated tonight, don't see much value in the Houston ML.

 

[PatsFanCT]

The Lakers seem like a mess right now. I took Houston at +380. Might be a nice little payout.

Why are they a mess? Sacramento is a new team with Cousins. Boston looked like a D2 school vs. Phoenix, both teams were looking ahead to Sunday. Then they lost to a top 5 teamFWIW, Jerry West questioned their defense late January. Next game they beat Utah 120-91 destroying them in 1st half.Mitch Kupchak said he would consider making a trade because LA isn't playing up to their reputation. LA will be motivated tonight, don't see much value in the Houston ML.

Oh, I'm definitely playing with fire, but when Kobe score 41 points and doesn't record a single assist, that pretty much sums up how he feels about his teammates. So, at +380, it's a risk I'm willing to take.

 

[lumpy19]

would be pretty nasty if there's any truth to this

SU point shaving scandal?

 

[tjnc09]

Oh, I'm definitely playing with fire, but when Kobe score 41 points and doesn't record a single assist, that pretty much sums up how he feels about his teammates. So, at +380, it's a risk I'm willing to take.

GL in the 4th qtr

 

[tjnc09]

would be pretty nasty if there's any truth to this

SU point shaving scandal?

wow. It will be interesting to see how it develops tomorrow morning.

 

[modogg]

The Lakers seem like a mess right now. I took Houston at +380. Might be a nice little payout.

i see they are in OT, good luck man

 

[LaneOfSteel™]

MP - thoughts on the following:

Starks total rushing attempts u16.5 -115

Kuhn total rushing yards o5.5 -115

 

[Romulan]

If anyone is interested in some early soccer action I got a pretty good game that seems like a lock

Tuesday, February 15, 2011 (Times shown in Eastern Standard Time)

12:00p

UEFA Club Competitions - UEFA Europa League

Aris Thessaloniki

+450

Manchester City

-165

Draw

+260

Even though Aris has been overperforming they wont be able to surprise Manchester City February 15.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Thoughts on any more movement on the line and o/u on the SB?

 

[lumpy19]

Thoughts on any more movement on the line and o/u on the SB?

ML GB -145spread GB -2.5 -120Total 44.5Those are pretty much the widely available numbers. you can probably find pit +3 at square shops but i think this is where the line is going to stay. It'll take piles of money to get pit +3 -110 widely available and these are 2 really public teams, money seems pretty split right now.

 

[MarshallPlan]

MP - thoughts on the following:Starks total rushing attempts u16.5 -115Kuhn total rushing yards o5.5 -115

I'm an under guy on Starks, then again this is correlated to me being pro-Pitt. Starks has been in optimal situations the last 3 games with the Pack leading nearly every minute. Of course he's going to get carries and yes he has been effective. I think it's a pretty decent number but I wouldn't be surprised to see him come up with say 12 carries. I like Starks rush yds under more.No real lean on Kuhn. I played longest rec ov 4.5 -115 but no more on him. I envision/hope the Pack plays from behind and we see more of Kuhn/Jackson in the backfield catching passes. If Kuhn doesn't get a carry I wouldn't be shocked.

 

[MarshallPlan]

Thoughts on any more movement on the line and o/u on the SB?

ML GB -145spread GB -2.5 -120Total 44.5Those are pretty much the widely available numbers. you can probably find pit +3 at square shops but i think this is where the line is going to stay. It'll take piles of money to get pit +3 -110 widely available and these are 2 really public teams, money seems pretty split right now.

Lump, thoughts/lean on the total?

 

[lumpy19]

Thoughts on any more movement on the line and o/u on the SB?

ML GB -145spread GB -2.5 -120Total 44.5Those are pretty much the widely available numbers. you can probably find pit +3 at square shops but i think this is where the line is going to stay. It'll take piles of money to get pit +3 -110 widely available and these are 2 really public teams, money seems pretty split right now.

Lump, thoughts/lean on the total?

Seems high for 2 teams with defenses this good

 

[MarshallPlan]

My thought too, what do you think about the movement from here on out?

 

[lumpy19]

My thought too, what do you think about the movement from here on out?

Hoping it goes up, I would think the public will be on the over, i think 6 of the last 7 have gone over and public likes over. Really no idea on a SB line how much money it takes to move the line

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Thoughts on any more movement on the line and o/u on the SB?

ML GB -145spread GB -2.5 -120Total 44.5Those are pretty much the widely available numbers. you can probably find pit +3 at square shops but i think this is where the line is going to stay. It'll take piles of money to get pit +3 -110 widely available and these are 2 really public teams, money seems pretty split right now.

Got Pitt +3 (-120) at sportsbook. I'll just lock that in I guess.