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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
zander_s
Footballguy
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Frostillicus said:
Man In The Box
Footballguy
Tailing bmj. You guys have made post-football withdrawal pretty bearable. Anyone seen the Ref?
PatsFanCT
Footballguy
Same here, thanks.
The Ref
Footballguy
From my Golf buddy...
"VJ Singh missed 15 of 18 greens today, short-siding himself half of those times. And yet he shot a -3. I've NEVER seen anyone scramble like that. F him. No chance he can keep this up playing as badly as he is."
PatsFanCT
Footballguy
Ah, screw it. Trailing.As a UConn fan, I try not to bet them, but I tend to agree they will have way too much for them.
optionmaven
Footballguy
Was once hot, but running cold as of late......still, Wisconsin GB -2.5 over UIC in chicago. Valparaiso -8 @home vs detroit.
I liked the guys golf play but did not get in. Before last week, VJ had been showing very poor form end of last yr. I think you guys will be good to go on that fade.
I liked the guys golf play but did not get in. Before last week, VJ had been showing very poor form end of last yr. I think you guys will be good to go on that fade.
Reginald Cornsilks
Footballguy
Thats almost impossible to miss 15 of 18 greens and shoot -3. That means he either one-putted 18 times, or chipped in a few times.ETA: pgatour.com says he hit 10 greens (56%).
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The Ref
Footballguy
That said, I'm happy to hear he did it with smoke and mirrors. Hopefully he comes unglued tomorrow.nittanylion
Footballguy
I love you, man...
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Boy this place is humming of late, nice!
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
I also played the Lake Show at half...
The Ref
Footballguy
Should have known tonight was going to be bad news. I could tell he didn't really like anything. Hopefully I posted it late enough that nobody got in.
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Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Ref, only bet I made tonight was this Lakers half (and 2 props), but I kind of randomly tailed you yesterday and need to say thanks for that. What an incredible night; lucky I even jumped in because I'm just kind of casually playing now.
ETA Lakers went to 2.5 -115. Got them at 1.5
ETA Lakers went to 2.5 -115. Got them at 1.5
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[icon]
Insoxicated
No worries bro! It's part of the game. Good nights / Bad nights.
TheWick
Footballguy
Thought for sure he was going to like the Pens U30.5...more games to choose from tomorrow night. Back on track.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Good call.
modogg
Footballguy
couldn't get the under because sportsbook doesn't have o/u on CBB, but got Georgia Southern
TheWick
Footballguy
Took LA also...so it was a wash
nittanylion
Footballguy
Whoo-HOO!!! Thank you, Ray Allen!!!
...and you too, Patsy. Righteous call, man!
...and you too, Patsy. Righteous call, man!
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Puckline is 3-16 over the past three nights, 0-5 tonight. 
Frostillicus
Footballguy
I knew it. I ####### knew it. The minute I post my plays they go all to ####. ####in hell.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Maybe just post your top picks?
I guess whatever fits the system plays though, maybe the strongest in the system or something. I usually play several games a night but only post one here just so if I have one of those nights and people tail, they don't want me dead.
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lumpy19
Footballguy
Is this only the favorites?Puckline is 3-16 over the past three nights, 0-5 tonight.
Doesn't the puck line mean the +1.5/-1.5 line that the book posts? How can that be 3-16?I get that you're a hockey hotshot and all but your statistical statement was wrong, still is wrong and will always be wrong. Keep grabbing random samples of i don't know what since i'm not sure how a puck line can be 3-16 when every game has 1 winner and 1 loserETA: so looking at the numbers you took all the favorites.....hmmm i bet all the +1.5 lines and went 5-0, good call!!
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Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Maybe you'll buy a Central Park West apartment next month, maybe a blimp.Is this only the favorites?Puckline is 3-16 over the past three nights, 0-5 tonight.Doesn't the puck line mean the +1.5/-1.5 line that the book posts? How can that be 3-16?I get that you're a hockey hotshot and all but your statistical statement was wrong, still is wrong and will always be wrong. Keep grabbing random samples of i don't know what since i'm not sure how a puck line can be 3-16 when every game has 1 winner and 1 loserETA: so looking at the numbers you took all the favorites.....hmmm i bet all the +1.5 lines and went 5-0, good call!!
lumpy19
Footballguy
Unfortunately my buddy who bets 8.1k/baseball game beat me to the apartment i was looking at in Central Park WestMaybe you'll buy a Central Park West apartment next month, maybe a blimp.Is this only the favorites?Puckline is 3-16 over the past three nights, 0-5 tonight.Doesn't the puck line mean the +1.5/-1.5 line that the book posts? How can that be 3-16?I get that you're a hockey hotshot and all but your statistical statement was wrong, still is wrong and will always be wrong. Keep grabbing random samples of i don't know what since i'm not sure how a puck line can be 3-16 when every game has 1 winner and 1 loserETA: so looking at the numbers you took all the favorites.....hmmm i bet all the +1.5 lines and went 5-0, good call!!
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Unfortunately my buddy who bets 8.1k/baseball game beat me to the apartment i was looking at in Central Park WestMaybe you'll buy a Central Park West apartment next month, maybe a blimp.Is this only the favorites?Puckline is 3-16 over the past three nights, 0-5 tonight.
Amateurs.I don't even pick up the phone to place a bet less than $20K.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Why don't you buy the blimp and then crash into your friend after he wins one of the baseball bets? Seems like an afterthought move for someone with your acumen.Unfortunately my buddy who bets 8.1k/baseball game beat me to the apartment i was looking at in Central Park WestMaybe you'll buy a Central Park West apartment next month, maybe a blimp.Is this only the favorites?Puckline is 3-16 over the past three nights, 0-5 tonight.Doesn't the puck line mean the +1.5/-1.5 line that the book posts? How can that be 3-16?I get that you're a hockey hotshot and all but your statistical statement was wrong, still is wrong and will always be wrong. Keep grabbing random samples of i don't know what since i'm not sure how a puck line can be 3-16 when every game has 1 winner and 1 loserETA: so looking at the numbers you took all the favorites.....hmmm i bet all the +1.5 lines and went 5-0, good call!!
My analysis was so off from the Vegas numbers, it scared me into betting less (they both should have been 2u plays). Oh well, won't be the last time I shrivel up. Glad it worked out.
sheerterror
Footballguy
Was going to wait closer to Saturday but I'll post this one up now, as the line is starting to go a little crazy. I don't post plays too often, but when I have one for my fellow FFA Wagering degenerates, you know it's something I really like a lot. Here's my post from the MMA Wagering thread:
Alright, here's a fight I've had my eye on for a while for several reasons. Gian Villante -240 over Chad Griggs at this Saturday's Strikeforce card. This will likely end up being one of, if not my biggest MMA bets ever.
I'll preface this by saying that I've got some very substantial inside information on this fight, which is enough for me to bet it regardless.
However, when you look closer at the fight as well as the situation at hand, I think this is the perfect storm to unload on.
Villante is being brought in by Strikeforce to beef up the LHW division. He signed a 2 year/6 fight contract. He's been on Strikeforce's radar
for a while, they like him and they have plans for him - he's not just some local talent they are throwing on this card. Due to an injury to Dave Herman, a slot
opened up on the main card at this event and Strikeforce was quick to contact Villante knowing 1) that he was a highly regarded prospect who was on the UFC
and Bellator radar 2) was a local draw that could bring people with him and 3) has fought at heavyweight before. Everything lined up to bring Gian right onto
the main televised portion of this card. And what's even better is that it's against the perfect opponent in Chad Griggs.
Chad Griggs is a 32 year old, part time MMA fighter with only 10 pro fights in his 5 year career. Like Villante, he has an impressive record that consists
mostly of beating up talent at regional shows. His current claim to fame is playing punching bag/tackling dummy to juiced up Bobby Lashley en route to handing
Lashley his first career loss. In this fight, Lashely took Griggs down at will, landed some ground and pound, got back up and did the same thing for two rounds.
As time passed, Lashley's ground and pound got less and less effective as he tired substantially. Lashley gassed out so hard that this fight was actually stood
up from full mount because Lashley was actually stalling from one of the most dominant positions in all of MMA. Following the stand up, he shot in desperately,
was (finally) sprawled on, and Griggs landed a few punches. As the round expired, so did Lashley's pathetic gas tank and it resulted in a major upset victory for
Chad Griggs. We'll give Griggs his credit here because he managed to keep his Strikeforce career alive for an additional fight by outlasting Lashley. From
what I see of Griggs' skillset, he's a tough, durable fighter with OK stand up and not much else.
Villante is a 7-1 2 year vet with New Jersey based Ring of Combat (the organization responsible for producing guys like the Miller brothers, Frankie Edgar, Pete Sell,
Ricardo Romero and some other pro guys from the Northeast region.) He holds both the LHW and HW belts with ROC, and his only loss occurred via a fluke elbow injury
while fighting the underwhelming Demetrius Richards. Apart from this set back, Villante has finished all of his fights. Villante brings to the ring with him a great deal of athleticism evidenced by a very successful football career at Hofstra University, where he was an All American linebacker and ultimately tried out for a few NFL teams before moving on to MMA. While at Hofstra, he also wrestled for a season (I assure you this is overblown - he wasn't truly a collegiate wrestler) but was a very, very good wrestler in High School. He's got excellent kick boxing with some legitimate power, a strong wrestling base to take opponents down if needed, or keep the fights standing, an improving ground game once it does get to the ground, and most importantly, toughness. His biggest assets are likely his strength and his athleticism. He excels at overpowering guys he brings to the floor, impoving position, and raining down impressive ground and pound which has resulted in several TKO victories, and a few rear naked chokes when guys get tired of getting hit in the face. The one thing that has brought Gian down a bit in the past is his gas tank - which I know for certain will be improved for this fight. Villante was also likely to have been on TUF had they done a LHW season a year ago after he tried out. They ended up going with Middleweight that season and Gian returned to ROC.
This fight is the perfect opportunity for Villante to introduce himself to the mainstream MMA world with an impressive showing. This fight couldn't have aligned
itself better for Villante and Strikeforce, as he's taking on a "name" opponent in Chad Griggs who carries with him the stigma of being "the man who beat Bobby
Lashley" - but when we look at how that went down, we know it was probably more of a fluke/discredit to Lashley than it was a feather in Griggs' cap. This
fight is a way to build Gian's name up with a fight against a guy most of the Strikeforce crowd already knows thanks to his previous win, but also a guy who
realistically was brought in to pad Lashley's record which ultimately backfired - and Strikeforce knows this. I look for Villante to come out strong, hurt Griggs
early until he eventually brings Griggs down and finishes him either via TKO or a RNC in the first round. If Villante finds himself losing the standup battle early
he'll have no probably overpowering Griggs with a takedown and putting himself in a more comfortable position on the ground to work his ground and pound.
I'm not in love with the line - which actually opened (for about 2 minutes) at Villante +120, quickly got bet to -115/-115 and like a runaway train, has ballooned up to -240 since then - and rightfully so, because who the hell wants to lay -240 or anyone. I'd like to say hold off on betting Villante because MAYBE the public will come strolling in closer to Saturday with the "Hey, I've heard of Chad Griggs, he's at a + number?! Let me bet him" mentality which could maybe swing the line back in our favor...but truthfully, I don't know that this will happen. I believe Villante belongs in the -400 and up range, and regardless of any "value" I see in this current line, I believe he wins this fight with ease.
Here's an excellent video highlighting some of Villante's best moments inside the ring so far in his career http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYj8H0QkBx4
Alright, here's a fight I've had my eye on for a while for several reasons. Gian Villante -240 over Chad Griggs at this Saturday's Strikeforce card. This will likely end up being one of, if not my biggest MMA bets ever.
I'll preface this by saying that I've got some very substantial inside information on this fight, which is enough for me to bet it regardless.
However, when you look closer at the fight as well as the situation at hand, I think this is the perfect storm to unload on.
Villante is being brought in by Strikeforce to beef up the LHW division. He signed a 2 year/6 fight contract. He's been on Strikeforce's radar
for a while, they like him and they have plans for him - he's not just some local talent they are throwing on this card. Due to an injury to Dave Herman, a slot
opened up on the main card at this event and Strikeforce was quick to contact Villante knowing 1) that he was a highly regarded prospect who was on the UFC
and Bellator radar 2) was a local draw that could bring people with him and 3) has fought at heavyweight before. Everything lined up to bring Gian right onto
the main televised portion of this card. And what's even better is that it's against the perfect opponent in Chad Griggs.
Chad Griggs is a 32 year old, part time MMA fighter with only 10 pro fights in his 5 year career. Like Villante, he has an impressive record that consists
mostly of beating up talent at regional shows. His current claim to fame is playing punching bag/tackling dummy to juiced up Bobby Lashley en route to handing
Lashley his first career loss. In this fight, Lashely took Griggs down at will, landed some ground and pound, got back up and did the same thing for two rounds.
As time passed, Lashley's ground and pound got less and less effective as he tired substantially. Lashley gassed out so hard that this fight was actually stood
up from full mount because Lashley was actually stalling from one of the most dominant positions in all of MMA. Following the stand up, he shot in desperately,
was (finally) sprawled on, and Griggs landed a few punches. As the round expired, so did Lashley's pathetic gas tank and it resulted in a major upset victory for
Chad Griggs. We'll give Griggs his credit here because he managed to keep his Strikeforce career alive for an additional fight by outlasting Lashley. From
what I see of Griggs' skillset, he's a tough, durable fighter with OK stand up and not much else.
Villante is a 7-1 2 year vet with New Jersey based Ring of Combat (the organization responsible for producing guys like the Miller brothers, Frankie Edgar, Pete Sell,
Ricardo Romero and some other pro guys from the Northeast region.) He holds both the LHW and HW belts with ROC, and his only loss occurred via a fluke elbow injury
while fighting the underwhelming Demetrius Richards. Apart from this set back, Villante has finished all of his fights. Villante brings to the ring with him a great deal of athleticism evidenced by a very successful football career at Hofstra University, where he was an All American linebacker and ultimately tried out for a few NFL teams before moving on to MMA. While at Hofstra, he also wrestled for a season (I assure you this is overblown - he wasn't truly a collegiate wrestler) but was a very, very good wrestler in High School. He's got excellent kick boxing with some legitimate power, a strong wrestling base to take opponents down if needed, or keep the fights standing, an improving ground game once it does get to the ground, and most importantly, toughness. His biggest assets are likely his strength and his athleticism. He excels at overpowering guys he brings to the floor, impoving position, and raining down impressive ground and pound which has resulted in several TKO victories, and a few rear naked chokes when guys get tired of getting hit in the face. The one thing that has brought Gian down a bit in the past is his gas tank - which I know for certain will be improved for this fight. Villante was also likely to have been on TUF had they done a LHW season a year ago after he tried out. They ended up going with Middleweight that season and Gian returned to ROC.
This fight is the perfect opportunity for Villante to introduce himself to the mainstream MMA world with an impressive showing. This fight couldn't have aligned
itself better for Villante and Strikeforce, as he's taking on a "name" opponent in Chad Griggs who carries with him the stigma of being "the man who beat Bobby
Lashley" - but when we look at how that went down, we know it was probably more of a fluke/discredit to Lashley than it was a feather in Griggs' cap. This
fight is a way to build Gian's name up with a fight against a guy most of the Strikeforce crowd already knows thanks to his previous win, but also a guy who
realistically was brought in to pad Lashley's record which ultimately backfired - and Strikeforce knows this. I look for Villante to come out strong, hurt Griggs
early until he eventually brings Griggs down and finishes him either via TKO or a RNC in the first round. If Villante finds himself losing the standup battle early
he'll have no probably overpowering Griggs with a takedown and putting himself in a more comfortable position on the ground to work his ground and pound.
I'm not in love with the line - which actually opened (for about 2 minutes) at Villante +120, quickly got bet to -115/-115 and like a runaway train, has ballooned up to -240 since then - and rightfully so, because who the hell wants to lay -240 or anyone. I'd like to say hold off on betting Villante because MAYBE the public will come strolling in closer to Saturday with the "Hey, I've heard of Chad Griggs, he's at a + number?! Let me bet him" mentality which could maybe swing the line back in our favor...but truthfully, I don't know that this will happen. I believe Villante belongs in the -400 and up range, and regardless of any "value" I see in this current line, I believe he wins this fight with ease.
Here's an excellent video highlighting some of Villante's best moments inside the ring so far in his career http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYj8H0QkBx4
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Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
I woulda tailed you too, but I was late, and whatever was left wasn't offered by my guy (not taking a lot of totals). I can thank you for some prior winners in the GM thread, so keep it coming, if you don't mind.
PatsFanCT
Footballguy
Although he did make us sweat a little.
PatsFanCT
Footballguy
So yeah, I'm gonna go ahead and stop posting plays now.
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
Looks like I need to start betting the + puckline.Puckline is 3-16 over the past three nights, 0-5 tonight.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Alright, I've got two for tonight
rinceton/Columbia OVER 135Siena/Iona OVER 146
lumpy19
Footballguy
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
You certainly will win the majority of your bets. At -250 though, you might not make any money over time. I don't know anyone that ever plays those. Hockey for tonight:Rangers/Thrashers U 5.5 (-120)Both these teams have had a ton of trouble lately and the Thrashers have mostly been an over team in their slide. The Rangers put up 45+ shots the other night and still only scored twice as their offense has been in free fall. Henrik Lundqvist will be back tonight after getting benched, I think he will be ready and hold the Thrashers in check. I can see this being a 3-2 OT game, but love King Henrik to hold the Thrashers and the Rangers to shoot a lot of pucks wide or right into the goalies chest.Looks like I need to start betting the + puckline.Puckline is 3-16 over the past three nights, 0-5 tonight.
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sheerterror
Footballguy
Trying to figure out what to make of the Overeem-Sefo line lump. You're looking at your classic kickboxer vs. MMA fighter, so you've got to believe if Overeem gets this to the ground (and he'd be foolish not to do everything in his power to try) then the fight's over. If he has trouble, or decides to stand and bang, Sefo's going to knock him out. Overeem's got the ridiculous experience advantage with 50+ fights over a near 15 year career - but they've both got a lot of combat sport mileage, are both old, and have both been out of the cage for a while. Too many variables for me to make a play - but if I had to, I'd lean Overeem.
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hooter311
Footballguy
Sefo is 40 and didn't get a full camp in. If he is going to win, he better do it quick.
lumpy19
Footballguy
Thanks, I have a bet on Overeem at -135 based off the advice of an MMA friend, glad to see you're at least leaning that way
