TheWick
Footballguy
ummmmm....YEAHThe Fairly one is quite nice also
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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
The Ref
Footballguy
Yeah thats the one other one - I'm maxed at 100 on each.
TheWick
Footballguy
Be careful...they are going to cut your ###
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Oh hell yes.'bmj87 said:
RedRaiders
Mr. +EV
Laying -135 in an exhibition baseball game is ######ed with a capital R. If you have a MLB regular season system, you cannot run a trial of it during fake meaningless exhibition spring games. You need to back test it on previous years of MLB games.'bmj87 said:
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Hockey tomorrow
Habs -115
Caps/Isles O5.5 (-107)
Caps should have a spring in their step with the new Jason Arnott on board and that come back win vs the Isles on Sunday. Habs are pushing hard for the playoffs now so I like them as a slight road favorite as it seems like they might be ready to turn things around after some rough play lately.
glll
Habs -115
Caps/Isles O5.5 (-107)
Caps should have a spring in their step with the new Jason Arnott on board and that come back win vs the Isles on Sunday. Habs are pushing hard for the playoffs now so I like them as a slight road favorite as it seems like they might be ready to turn things around after some rough play lately.
glll
bmj87
Footballguy
Already taken into account - the exhibition system is much different than the regular season system.
modogg
Footballguy
in. looking to get ready for the Flyers playoff run, could use some extra money in the account in case they slip up a bit
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The Ref
Footballguy
Only if your doing it right....Be careful...they are going to cut your ###
nittanylion
Footballguy
Well, I was very much on the wrong side last night, re: Villanova (+5) @ Notre Dame. Had I been home in time to see bmj's play, I wouldn't have played Villanova, because it didn't move to +6 like I'd anticipated (not that it would have helped much, but absent bmj's play, I needed something to do, so I backed 'nova +5 anyway). I don't remember the last time I saw a 3-point shooting clinic like the one the Irish put on...20 for 32 overall, 11 for 19 in the 1st half, 9 for 13 in the second. That's an incredible anomaly from a statistical standpoint, and it took it's toll on the psyche of the Villanova Team - it was really incredible watching the second half unfold - the halftime line was Villanova -2.5, which was a fair line, (which I played as well) because from a probability standpoint, after an almost flawless 1st half, it was reasonable to expect Notre Dame to cool off while Villanova, who had an uncharacteristically cold 1st half, heated up workeding to close a 20 point deficit...but against most probability and statistical models, Notre Dame came out hot opening the 2nd half, and it completely demoralized the Wildcat Team rendering them pretty much useless. Luck plays a role in all our wagering, and I'm chalking this loss (actually 2 losses - Game Line and 2nd Half Line) as plain bad luck, because the likelyhood of the second half wager missing after the way the 1st half played out was almost impossible. Bad beats are part of the Game, and I'm just glad I didn't try to get back any more than my original 1 unit wager on the follow up play. Somewhat impulsive, but not an illogical wager.
Major Congratulations to bmj for getting back on track this weekend. I'm sure I'm not the only one who profited there with his Saturday plays...I posted my thoughts on his SEC plays, which is the Conference I pay the most attention to, and we wound up splitting - he was outright correct on underdog Ole' Miss defeating Alabama, and although Arkansas beat Auburn by 2, Auburn covered the +3.5 for him. Both of of those Games went down to the final minute, so I feel that I saw them pretty clearly. Meanwhile, I hit on heavy favorite Vanderbilt torching LSU, and 11.5 point dog Mississippi State covering and outright beating Tennessee. I sure wish I had played that Money Line.
I'm mentioning this because I am laying down a pretty sizeable wager on Vanderbilt tonight, +8 @ Kentucky, and I feel really solid about the play. I just can't see the justification in the line, kind of like the Mississippi State/Tennessee line made no sense. I think the images of both Teams in the public's eye play a role here: the recent Vandy W @ LSU was a blip on the radar compared to the prior loss at home vs Tenn on National TV - Tennessee's scrappy, physical style gave a sleek greyhound like Vandy fits. Conversely, when Tenn played Miss St Saturday - a Team that plays the Vols brand of basketball, but with a better point guard and an older seasoned supporting cast, Tennessee came up short. Meanwhile, the image of Kentucky is Saturday's home win vs Florida, which has their stock on the rise.
These Teams are inter-divisional rivals within the SEC, and Vandy won the 1st game in the series Feb 12 in Vandy 81-77, so I'm not predicting a Vandy W here, but I am very confident they can/will cover a large spread. The vs Florida victory on Saturday by the Wildcats was a pretty huge one for the Kentucky team - it was John Calipari's 500th victory. This year's Kentucky team is young and has been wildly inconsistent, and given those circumstances, getting that kind of a W could possibly lead to an emotional letdown. Meanwhile, Vandy was absolutely embarrassed by how they lost at home vs the Vols, and came out and really beat up on the Tigers @ LSU Saturday - both on the scoreboard, and physically on the court - they really had an edge about them, and looked refocused for a run at a high Tournament Seeding. One of the most annoying things about watching the Commodores lose to the Vols (which I lost money on), was watching Vandy, who's a solid 3-point shooting Team, forget about their inside bigs chasing 3's that weren't falling that night. In the players interviews since then, they've all acknowledged that mistake, and @ LSU put their words into action, playing a solid 'Team' Game. Player for player, the two Teams are roughly even, with Vandy having a more veteran squad, who knows how to play and win as a Team, while Kentucky will have the home-court advantage and probably better raw athleticism, but who tend to play more as individuals. It is Kentucky's Senior night, but they only have 1 Senior - F Josh Harrellson, who, while a Starter and a solid rebounder, isn't going to make anyone forget Jamaal Mashburn. So I don't think that brings much to bear in terms of giving Kentucky any sort of emotional edge.
This will be my one of my largest NCAA Hoops wagers ever. I don't think anyone else should tail it for anything more than a normal play, I don't think I've demonstrated anywhere near enough consistency in my leans for more than that. I guess I'm just trying to justify my confidence by voicing my reasoning, more or less, since for me, this is a very sizeable play. Thanks for reading, and good luck, all!
Major Congratulations to bmj for getting back on track this weekend. I'm sure I'm not the only one who profited there with his Saturday plays...I posted my thoughts on his SEC plays, which is the Conference I pay the most attention to, and we wound up splitting - he was outright correct on underdog Ole' Miss defeating Alabama, and although Arkansas beat Auburn by 2, Auburn covered the +3.5 for him. Both of of those Games went down to the final minute, so I feel that I saw them pretty clearly. Meanwhile, I hit on heavy favorite Vanderbilt torching LSU, and 11.5 point dog Mississippi State covering and outright beating Tennessee. I sure wish I had played that Money Line.
I'm mentioning this because I am laying down a pretty sizeable wager on Vanderbilt tonight, +8 @ Kentucky, and I feel really solid about the play. I just can't see the justification in the line, kind of like the Mississippi State/Tennessee line made no sense. I think the images of both Teams in the public's eye play a role here: the recent Vandy W @ LSU was a blip on the radar compared to the prior loss at home vs Tenn on National TV - Tennessee's scrappy, physical style gave a sleek greyhound like Vandy fits. Conversely, when Tenn played Miss St Saturday - a Team that plays the Vols brand of basketball, but with a better point guard and an older seasoned supporting cast, Tennessee came up short. Meanwhile, the image of Kentucky is Saturday's home win vs Florida, which has their stock on the rise.
These Teams are inter-divisional rivals within the SEC, and Vandy won the 1st game in the series Feb 12 in Vandy 81-77, so I'm not predicting a Vandy W here, but I am very confident they can/will cover a large spread. The vs Florida victory on Saturday by the Wildcats was a pretty huge one for the Kentucky team - it was John Calipari's 500th victory. This year's Kentucky team is young and has been wildly inconsistent, and given those circumstances, getting that kind of a W could possibly lead to an emotional letdown. Meanwhile, Vandy was absolutely embarrassed by how they lost at home vs the Vols, and came out and really beat up on the Tigers @ LSU Saturday - both on the scoreboard, and physically on the court - they really had an edge about them, and looked refocused for a run at a high Tournament Seeding. One of the most annoying things about watching the Commodores lose to the Vols (which I lost money on), was watching Vandy, who's a solid 3-point shooting Team, forget about their inside bigs chasing 3's that weren't falling that night. In the players interviews since then, they've all acknowledged that mistake, and @ LSU put their words into action, playing a solid 'Team' Game. Player for player, the two Teams are roughly even, with Vandy having a more veteran squad, who knows how to play and win as a Team, while Kentucky will have the home-court advantage and probably better raw athleticism, but who tend to play more as individuals. It is Kentucky's Senior night, but they only have 1 Senior - F Josh Harrellson, who, while a Starter and a solid rebounder, isn't going to make anyone forget Jamaal Mashburn. So I don't think that brings much to bear in terms of giving Kentucky any sort of emotional edge.
This will be my one of my largest NCAA Hoops wagers ever. I don't think anyone else should tail it for anything more than a normal play, I don't think I've demonstrated anywhere near enough consistency in my leans for more than that. I guess I'm just trying to justify my confidence by voicing my reasoning, more or less, since for me, this is a very sizeable play. Thanks for reading, and good luck, all!
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Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Good luck, Vandy looks like a nice play tonight.
Garrett
Footballguy
Going with two BigTen totals tonight...
Purdue-Illini OVER 136 Purdue should pour it on at home and Illini can be effective enough from 3 point range to push it over. High total for a BigTen game, but I think both teams will find their points.
PennState - Ohio State OVER 129 Too low of a total for a Buckeye team that is so dangerous offensively. PSU will be fired up at home and I expect a heated contest, which should lead to enough free throws to get over 129.
Purdue-Illini OVER 136 Purdue should pour it on at home and Illini can be effective enough from 3 point range to push it over. High total for a BigTen game, but I think both teams will find their points.
PennState - Ohio State OVER 129 Too low of a total for a Buckeye team that is so dangerous offensively. PSU will be fired up at home and I expect a heated contest, which should lead to enough free throws to get over 129.
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
Senior Night Factor
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
Purdue + OSU ML parlay -200 (approximately)
The Ref
Footballguy
You sold me kid... In for one unit
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The Ref
Footballguy
Edit to say I'm speechless that the Flames under came in after 16! shots in the first period.
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JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
MSU, Duke, BYU ML parlay -225
playing with fire
playing with fire
zander_s
Footballguy
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Trying to chase down that Tampa total shots play.
I have two tonight:
Wings/Ducks O5.5 (-125) Pay the premium, this game is almost certain to go over. I think it'll be 4-2 or 5-3.
Also like the value in Tampa +125 at New Jersey. Yeah New Jersey has Brodeur back and they are hot, but Tampa has been the better team all year and this really should be an even odds game.
I have two tonight:
Wings/Ducks O5.5 (-125) Pay the premium, this game is almost certain to go over. I think it'll be 4-2 or 5-3.
Also like the value in Tampa +125 at New Jersey. Yeah New Jersey has Brodeur back and they are hot, but Tampa has been the better team all year and this really should be an even odds game.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Someone tell me real quick where to get NHL shot lines. TIA.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Ok, thanks. Tailing that Tampa under the even though that is really expensive at -145.
nittanylion
Footballguy
Thanks for all the support last night, fellas! I'm fairly certain the sheer force of our combined willpower inspired Vanderbilt's 2nd Half effort and comfortably cover that +8 after things looked grim early on. That was a sweet, sweet W.
Sweet card tonight, bmj, I'm in on most of it. A word of caution regarding Arkansas: As a HUGE fan, there's nothing I'd like to see more than them win their 3rd straight, and over Miss St no less, but I can't for the life of me see how this line is -7. Sure, it's Senior Night (Delvon Johnson, and to a lesser extend Marcus Britt, will be missed),the Hogs just beat Kentucky, and didn't let down @ Auburn in the follow up, but they only beat a terrible Auburn team by 2, and Miss St is a very complete Team playing some solid Team basketball. Also, this Game will decide who gets the 2nd Bye in the West Division of the SEC's convoluted Conference Tournament format, and I see it being tightly contested. I hate to say it, but MUCH better chance of Miss St losing by less than 7 than Arkansas winning by more than 7, IMO. Not saying to bet it the other way, but I'm staying off it completely - too many other opportunities out there tonight.
Also, I wouldn't want to be on the court with Duke tonight, especially with a star player out or hurting. Duke is likely going to try to make an example of the Tigers coming off the Va Tech loss. It could be ugly. Real ugly.
Good Luck!!!
Sweet card tonight, bmj, I'm in on most of it. A word of caution regarding Arkansas: As a HUGE fan, there's nothing I'd like to see more than them win their 3rd straight, and over Miss St no less, but I can't for the life of me see how this line is -7. Sure, it's Senior Night (Delvon Johnson, and to a lesser extend Marcus Britt, will be missed),the Hogs just beat Kentucky, and didn't let down @ Auburn in the follow up, but they only beat a terrible Auburn team by 2, and Miss St is a very complete Team playing some solid Team basketball. Also, this Game will decide who gets the 2nd Bye in the West Division of the SEC's convoluted Conference Tournament format, and I see it being tightly contested. I hate to say it, but MUCH better chance of Miss St losing by less than 7 than Arkansas winning by more than 7, IMO. Not saying to bet it the other way, but I'm staying off it completely - too many other opportunities out there tonight.
Also, I wouldn't want to be on the court with Duke tonight, especially with a star player out or hurting. Duke is likely going to try to make an example of the Tigers coming off the Va Tech loss. It could be ugly. Real ugly.
Good Luck!!!
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Bunch of air balls being put up in the Miami-Buffalo game, by both teams.
Buffalo player just had an air ball on a dunk attempt
Buffalo player just had an air ball on a dunk attempt
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bmj87
Footballguy
One of the ugliest games I've seen in a while, I'll take it thoughPS How do you airball a dunk, wowBunch of air balls being put up in the Miami-Buffalo game, by both teams.Buffalo player just had an air ball on a dunk attempt
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
bmj on fiyah!
Thanks, I needed that in a big 10u way.
lumpy19
Footballguy
RAS released 2h under 74.5, nice to get such an easy win, hasn't been many this seasonBunch of air balls being put up in the Miami-Buffalo game, by both teams.Buffalo player just had an air ball on a dunk attempt
The Ref
Footballguy
16 shots. My boy knows how to call em.
TheWick
Footballguy
good call...on CAL and ANA unders also
pack100
Footballguy
Had Miami plus 9.5.....I try not to bet against you bmj and it cost me tonight. I might start buying the hook. I hate the hookOne of the ugliest games I've seen in a while, I'll take it thoughPS How do you airball a dunk, wowBunch of air balls being put up in the Miami-Buffalo game, by both teams.Buffalo player just had an air ball on a dunk attempt
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
You guys shelling out for the MLB Extra Innings package again? I haven't decided yet. I got an early bird price of $179. I go to the gym after work now and I get home late, so I'm not sure that catching only the crappy west coast teams every night is worth it.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Thanks for the 4 star play ref, saved my night. Well 0-2 is bad, maybe no one followed me tonight. I'm still 16-7 or something with my picks here so I guess I was due a clunker.
I really like the Canucks/Preds U 5.5 (-135) tomorrow. Preds are an under team and with Rinne in goal they'll likely employ an even tighter defensive strategy vs the Canucks. Also when you have Shea Weber and Ryan Sutter against your top line, that means you'll have to find secondary scoring which isn't as easy as it sounds vs the Preds.
I really like the Canucks/Preds U 5.5 (-135) tomorrow. Preds are an under team and with Rinne in goal they'll likely employ an even tighter defensive strategy vs the Canucks. Also when you have Shea Weber and Ryan Sutter against your top line, that means you'll have to find secondary scoring which isn't as easy as it sounds vs the Preds.
lumpy19
Footballguy
sportsbook.com just posted MLB RSW, like that phillies under and i bet mets u79.5 already but i like the o76.5 at sportsbook. I hate betting a season long middle but i think 76.5 is too low.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Over 67.5 (-130)
Under 67.5 (even)
Philadelphia Phillies
Over 97.5 (-115)
Under 97.5 (-115)
San Francisco Giants
Over 87.5 (-125)
Under 87.5 (-105)
Seattle Mariners
Over 70 (-130)
Under 70 (even)
St Louis Cardinals
Over 82.5 (-115)
Under 82.5 (-115)
Tampa Bay Rays
Over 84.5 (-115)
Under 84.5 (-115)
Texas Rangers
Over 86 (-140)
Under 86 (+110)
Toronto Blue Jays
Over 76.5 (-115)
Under 76.5 (-115)
Washington Nationals
Over 72 (-115)
Under 72 (-115)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Over 72.5 (-115)
Under 72.5 (-115)
Atlanta Braves
Over 87 (-115)
Under 87 (-115)
Baltimore Orioles
Over 76.5 (-115)
Under 76.5 (-115)
Boston Red Sox
Over 95.5 (-115)
Under 95.5 (-115)
Chicago Cubs
Over 82.5 (-115)
Under 82.5 (-115)
Chicago White Sox
Over 85 (-125)
Under 85 (-105)
Cincinnati Reds
Over 85.5 (-115)
Under 85.5 (-115)
Cleveland Indians
Over 71.5 (-115)
Under 71.5 (-115)
Colorado Rockies
Over 86 (-130)
Under 86 (even)
Detroit Tigers
Over 84 (-115)
Under 84 (-115)
Florida Marlins
Over 82.5 (-115)
Under 82.5 (-115)
Houston Astros
Over 72 (-115)
Under 72 (-115)
Kansas City Royals
Over 68 (even)
Under 68 (-130)
Los Angeles Angels
Over 83 (-115)
Under 83 (-115)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 83 (-115)
Under 83 (-115)
Milwaukee Brewers
Over 86.5 (-115)
Under 86.5 (-115)
Minnesota Twins
Over 86 (-115)
Under 86 (-115)
New York Mets
Over 76.5 (-115)
Under 76.5 (-115)
New York Yankees
Over 91.5 (-115)
Under 91.5 (-115)
Oakland Athletics
Over 83.5 (-130)
Under 83.5 (even)
San Diego Padres
Over 75 (-115)
Under 75 (-115
Pittsburgh Pirates
Over 67.5 (-130)
Under 67.5 (even)
Philadelphia Phillies
Over 97.5 (-115)
Under 97.5 (-115)
San Francisco Giants
Over 87.5 (-125)
Under 87.5 (-105)
Seattle Mariners
Over 70 (-130)
Under 70 (even)
St Louis Cardinals
Over 82.5 (-115)
Under 82.5 (-115)
Tampa Bay Rays
Over 84.5 (-115)
Under 84.5 (-115)
Texas Rangers
Over 86 (-140)
Under 86 (+110)
Toronto Blue Jays
Over 76.5 (-115)
Under 76.5 (-115)
Washington Nationals
Over 72 (-115)
Under 72 (-115)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Over 72.5 (-115)
Under 72.5 (-115)
Atlanta Braves
Over 87 (-115)
Under 87 (-115)
Baltimore Orioles
Over 76.5 (-115)
Under 76.5 (-115)
Boston Red Sox
Over 95.5 (-115)
Under 95.5 (-115)
Chicago Cubs
Over 82.5 (-115)
Under 82.5 (-115)
Chicago White Sox
Over 85 (-125)
Under 85 (-105)
Cincinnati Reds
Over 85.5 (-115)
Under 85.5 (-115)
Cleveland Indians
Over 71.5 (-115)
Under 71.5 (-115)
Colorado Rockies
Over 86 (-130)
Under 86 (even)
Detroit Tigers
Over 84 (-115)
Under 84 (-115)
Florida Marlins
Over 82.5 (-115)
Under 82.5 (-115)
Houston Astros
Over 72 (-115)
Under 72 (-115)
Kansas City Royals
Over 68 (even)
Under 68 (-130)
Los Angeles Angels
Over 83 (-115)
Under 83 (-115)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 83 (-115)
Under 83 (-115)
Milwaukee Brewers
Over 86.5 (-115)
Under 86.5 (-115)
Minnesota Twins
Over 86 (-115)
Under 86 (-115)
New York Mets
Over 76.5 (-115)
Under 76.5 (-115)
New York Yankees
Over 91.5 (-115)
Under 91.5 (-115)
Oakland Athletics
Over 83.5 (-130)
Under 83.5 (even)
San Diego Padres
Over 75 (-115)
Under 75 (-115
zander_s
Footballguy
I bet the NYY under and sent a copy of it along with the Philly to win the series wagers to my wife.
She's a big Yankee fan and it just torques the hell out of her when i bet anything against them!!
ETA - Showed her that the Boston line was @ 99.5 and now she is tripping!
"No way the Sox win more than the Yankees"
No talking to her now, she won't listen to logic when it comes to the Yankees. I should get days of entertainment out of this.
She's a big Yankee fan and it just torques the hell out of her when i bet anything against them!!
ETA - Showed her that the Boston line was @ 99.5 and now she is tripping!
"No way the Sox win more than the Yankees"
No talking to her now, she won't listen to logic when it comes to the Yankees. I should get days of entertainment out of this.
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MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Adding my 2 cents here. I agree Phils under is probably a good bet, but what about fading them throughout the season? Those +200, +300, and even +400 games may add up quickly if they lose 3 of 5, 5 of 8 etc.
