Up and down day yesterday - rough start, solid finish, though, which is nice. Despite sustaining early losses,got back to even with the heavy UTEP cover, and finished strong with the heavy Louisville cover, who both won going away. Little bad luck at the end with Vandy -13 (won by 12), but that was a standard wager, so it only put a small dent in the Louisville winnings. I know it's tough to do, because on this board, for the most part we don't know each other from Adam, but I hope anyone that trailed losses early stuck with it, and didn't bail, and was able to recoup their losses before calling it a day.
I'm traveling today, so won't be able to post much. The only lines available to me right now are Michigan/Illinois and the Atlantic 10 games. If anything else becomes available, I'll post.
I have one early play on the lines I can see: Atl 10: #3Richmond (-6) over #6Rhode Island.
Xavier and Temple are the big players in the A-10, already dancing. From what I'm seeing this week, it looks like many Teams that already have an invite, and who's seeding won't dramatically change with a win or a loss, no matter the margin, aren't covering, with plenty of favorites winning straight up. So today I'm going to try to continue to spot Teams that need to win and win big, put more focus on games played later, after Coaches and Teams have seen consequences for not taking an opponent seriously play themselves out, and if the fatigue, revenge and familiarity factors can play a role...
Again, it's a big card, so I'm trying to be selective. Temple and Duquesne SHOULD cover big spreads v LaSalle and St.Joe's respectively, but Temple is dancing, so they have no reason to do more than win and move on. Duquesne is too quirky to bet on. Xavier is in, plays early, and Dayton is a very dangerous opponent who might catch them slacking. Richmond is the late game, so they'll have seen the day's events play out and should be on point, and they NEED one W, maybe 2 to get an invite. They know they can play with/beat Temple in the next round, and could be even more motivated if Xavier gets upset earlier in the day. Spiders should be primed to cover -6 handily.
Other notes:
Big East: If you lost money on Pitt, and didn't get it back later in the day, Syracuse will offer an opportunity for sweet revengs. UConn will now be playing their 4th game in a row, and the odds are astronomical that they could win outright, and it's likely that if Syracuse gets a sizeable lead, UConn will melt down like Marquette did last night. Pitt came out flat. Syracuse won't. Boeheim, like Pitino, is merciless, and he'll do everything he can to establish and exploit a psychological advantage over the Huskies - defeat the mind, defeat the body. I'd like to play this, can't wait to see the line.
Big 12: I didn't play Colorado yesterday, but I advised against it, and was surprised with the ease they dispatched K-State. Kansas will be ready. I'll give this a look if it's not over -8.
Big West: Cal-Northridge should have a walkover over Riverside. Long Beach/UCSB is NOT your typical 1-5 matchup. Be careful there.
CUSA: Memphis and UTEP should advance easily, but Memphis is too much wild energy for my taste, but you almost HAVE to play them, since this is #8 Seed ECU's 3rd game in a row, and they're coming off a MASSIVE upset of #1 UAB. Betting UTEP depends on the spread. 4 or less is a definite play.
MAC: I mentioned that the East Division Teams are much better than the West Division Teams, and to look for those matchups. The two best West Teams made the semi's, but overall #1 East Division Kent St. is still a clear favorite here. East Division Akron, who 'upset' East Division Miami, Ohio yesterday, is a great potential dog play winning outright over #2 overall seed West Division Western Michigan. This is a MUST play.
MEAC: I don't have a read on this. Bethune-Cookman is no lock, though. Any of Hampton, Coppin St. or Morgan St. could wind up with the auto-bid. These should be incredibly competitive games worth watching.
Mountain West: Another Conference Tourney better to watch and not gamble on: BYU, New Mexico, San Diego St. and UNLV in the Semi's...every single one of them went to the Big Dance last year. There's no telling what's going to happen here, but you've gotta lean dog if the spreads are large.
PAC 10: I'd sure like to find an angle on Washington / Oregon. Washington narrowly avoided an upset to Wazzou last night, and looked shaky. Oregon has upset their way into the semi's and this will be their 3rd game in a row, so the odds are against them, but Washington looks very beatable.
Patriot: Championship Game: #1 Bucknell v #6 Lafayette - Bucknell is superior to Lafayette in every way, yet Lafayette has upset #3 Holy Cross and #2 American to get to this game. Don't worry, Bucknell will be ready. They will pound their way to the Auto-Bid. One of the safest plays on the board today, IMO.
SEC: I'm an SEC maven, but I don't have any idea about how these matchups are going to play out today. It's wide open. One thing's for sure: Mississippi St. / Vanderbilt might be the best game on TV today. Enjoy it!
Southland: Championship Game: #1 McNeese St. vs #7 Texas-San Antonio: Another safe cover, McNeese in a walkover.
SWAC: Time to get your money back from Grambling, if you lost yesterday. Jackson St is going to mop the floor with them.
WAC: Utah St. is going to 'WAC' San Jose St. - #8 playing it's 3rd straight game vs #1, and Utah St. is far and away the best the WAC has to offer. The gap is huge, the spread should be huge, and the victory margin should be huge. Very, very safe.
Good Luck today, Fellas!
That's the only tail that's covered so far? Oh, I guess Miami did too, I was too late for that one.
