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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (14 Viewers)

I guess I'll make my annual venture into a gambling thread.

"Second" round plays:

Butler ML

Utah St. ML

Gonzaga ML

Parlay 10:1

Butler ML

Utah St. ML

Gonzaga ML

Parlay 49:1

Butler +2

Richmond +3

Gonzaga +1.5

Utah St. +2.5

Nova -1

Marquette +2.5

Parlay 167:1

Bulter ML

Richmond +3

Utah St. ML

Gonzaga ML

Nova -1

Marquette ML

Fla St. ML

 
'lumpy19 said:
'Raider Nation said:
'Raider Nation said:
2H ... Louisville -6. Free :moneybag:They'll wear these punks down with the press.
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:own3d:My free :moneybag: shtick is now 0-344 lifetime.Hope these Louisville queers lose outright now.
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Don't give up yet....NCAA tourney the endgame is different than a regular season game. Morehead St gets behind they'll foul until it's all 0's on the clock.
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Wow...first upset of the tourney. :thumbdown:
 
'Garrett said:
Somebody has to get things started today...

West Virginia -2.5

I think people are overreacting a bit to both Clemson's win against UAB (the five tallest guys from the FFA would have beat UAB that night) and West Virginia's loss to Marquette. WVU is a team that has beat UConn, Louisville, and Notre Dame in recent games; don't over think this.
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'Garrett said:
Butler +2.5

Lotta hype about ODU, and I lot of it is warranted. But I'll stick with the tournament experience of Butler and getting +2.5 in a game that should have stayed as a PICK. I also like Butler's advantage in both free throw and three point shooting.
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Ol' Garrett starting out HOT. He also took Moorehead State in our Bracket Draft. I'm watching you, G. :stalker:
 
First pretty big bet. SDSU - 14 1/2. bmj's on the other side unfortunately, and I may be a little biased, although I try not to be, but I've watched NoCo and am not impressed, at all. They got home-cookin' over Montana to get here. Montana already lost in the NITCBI or whatever. CSU beat up on them. I really think they'll get overwhelmed.

 
Been a bit cold with pucks picks but still 19-12 posting here, so not too bad.

Wings/Jackets O5.5 tonight (-115)

Wings are a rhthym team and last night they got a lot of mojo back with the win over the Caps. Lots of guys due for big nights (Franzen, Homer, Etc) and Columbus is not coached by Ken Hitchcock anymore. I see a 4-3 or 5-3 game here.

 
*sigh* more bad teams to bet on tomorrow:

1u LIU +17.5

1u Nova pk

1u St. Peter's +14.5

1u Gtown -5

1u Memphis +5.5

 
Oh, and I am on WOFFORD big. Forgot that my writeup on that one was in the Bracket Draft discussion, oops.

 
'Doctor Detroit said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
After speaking to my college hoops gurus, here is what I have going:Richmond +3Wofford +8.5 (This is my pick)Wisconsin 4.5K-State -2Clemson +2.5Lumpy having Wofford also convinced me that was the right play. :thumbup:
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Add Sparty -1 based on several posts, especially Ferris'. :wub:
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Add zags +1No comment on my hockey pick, Joey McDonald with the game of his career.
 
Hope everyone is having a profitable day. I've been very lucky: I bet the house on WVU, and although I lost small on ODU, I played Pitt on a whim, and doubled that small loss. Layed the lumber with Florida and at 9:37 PM, I'm very pleased.

Just making a few 1u wagers to stay tuned into the nightcaps:

I've got the Mizzou ML (-105). Just like one Team better than the other, better enough to just win.

I've changed my tune about K-State, because I'm flush, and just want to be interested in tonight's game while I'm capping tomorrow. K-State -2 is 'just winning', which I think they can do.

Good Luck, Fellas!

 
I like St Johns. This isn't the Gonzaga we're used to...I think they are now getting too much respect actually.

 
'Ferris Bueller Fan said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
'BRONG said:
Oh, and I am on WOFFORD big. Forgot that my writeup on that one was in the Bracket Draft discussion, oops.
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'Doctor Detroit said:
Wofford +8.5 (This is my pick)
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:banned: :banned: :banned:
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Now THAT was a buzzer-beater.I wonder if Jimmer was shaving points there. He missed a FT at 0:50, then that brutal missed three at 0:14 to keep the backdoor open.

ETA: sorry about putting you on Sparty. What a bloodbath.
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np, should have tailed your Morehead State pick to even it out. Had no idea they even had a chance to stay in the game, good call there.
 
'Ferris Bueller Fan said:
One of the themes of the Chad Millman podcast I referenced earlier was "fade shaky in-game coaches". I think the only coach with the combo of superior talent and inferior tactics who covered today was Steve Fisher. Calipari and Pitino got crushed ATS, Rose got backdoored, Stallings lost SU, Lavin is in a deep ATS hole late in the first half.If this trend rolls over into tomorrow, who are the plays? Oakland? Indiana State?
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A lot of the pundits seem to really like Oakland and I've heard some good arguments for LIU giving UNC all they can handle. I think I'll take the points and LIU, not sure about Oakland.
 
'Ferris Bueller Fan said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
np, should have tailed your Morehead State pick to even it out. Had no idea they even had a chance to stay in the game, good call there.
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I got from the Simmons podcast with Chad Millman earlier this week. Louisville going to altitude after 5 games in 5 days with a mediocre in-game coach and against the best rebounder in the country. I know we're on different sides of KSU/USU, so go ZAGS!
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I was with you on Morehead but Louisville had the double bye in the BE tourney, they played 3 in 3 days. Uconn played 5 in 5 and ROLLED a good bucknell team today.
 
'BRONG said:
'Garrett said:
Somebody has to get things started today...

West Virginia -2.5

I think people are overreacting a bit to both Clemson's win against UAB (the five tallest guys from the FFA would have beat UAB that night) and West Virginia's loss to Marquette. WVU is a team that has beat UConn, Louisville, and Notre Dame in recent games; don't over think this.
Click to expand...
'Garrett said:
Butler +2.5

Lotta hype about ODU, and I lot of it is warranted. But I'll stick with the tournament experience of Butler and getting +2.5 in a game that should have stayed as a PICK. I also like Butler's advantage in both free throw and three point shooting.
Click to expand...
Ol' Garrett starting out HOT. He also took Moorehead State in our Bracket Draft. I'm watching you, G. :stalker:
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'Garrett said:
Wisconsin -4

Too big, too strong, too much for Belmont.
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Outside of Kentucky, this was a good day. Morehead State and Gonzaga helping in the $1 pool.
 
Yeah, screw Saint Johns. Let me babble for a minute, BUZZED... I did something in that game (and the Mizzou game) that was kind of interesting. With both teams down 11 at half, I thought about doubling down so to speak, as in taking the points, which would obviously got me this nice line in a game the teams still had a shot in. Dumb? Probably, which brings me to my point. Those sides (STJ/MIZZ) were getting hammered. Many were thinking the same thing. Yippee, I can get STJ/Mzzou at like +8 or 9 now?? Awesome!!111

Anyway, I waited, and went the other way as the public, getting great lines. Make no mistake, I still lost overall on the night games -- not why I'm posting this -- but it just got me thinking how this specific halftime scenario might be a good play these next two weeks.

The thing about it is, even if the team that is down around 10 battles back to make it closer, unless they come all the way back, they ultimately have to foul. And in the tourney they foul like crazy, to the bitter end...even with no chance at winning. So besides the fact you are in the driver's seat to begin with -- big lead and getting points -- you also have a window there that will get you a whole 'nother shot at covering, with all the free throws. More than normal anyway.

So between that and the fact that it appears to be an auto public fade, made me think it might be a nice angle to try is all. Of course the books know this ####, but if the line is moving the way I saw it today, then all we do is wait on it. Here would be the parameters, more or less: a fairly close initial line, followed by an 6 - 10 point halftime lead. Something like that. I like it that it's two even teams. Again, no research, typing off the top my head, and yes, I've am drinking, but hoping those of you that have seen or read a lot more than I, can chime in. Never been this type of player, at all, so that's why I'm asking...

BTW, two other games today fell into the "BRONG THEOREM" category, for the most part anyway... Kansas State (loser) and Wisconsin (winner).

More :popcorn: and :banned: please.

 
Todays card

Long Island +17.5

Hampton +22.5

OSU -24

George Mason -1.5(terrible line)

Xavier -1.5

St Peter +14.5

AZ -5.5

Oakland +10.5

UNLV -1

Akron/ND o135.5

ETA: early saturday play richmond -3.5, missed the opener at 3 :wall:

 
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'Ferris Bueller Fan said:
lumpy - I'm seeing George Mason +1.5 available, so I imagine that's a good line, too.So far I like:Michigan MLMarquette +2.5GMU +1.5
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Definitely, I played GM at open, thought it'd go to -2 or -2.5, wasn't expecting the Nova loveUNC/CUSE/ND/GTOWN ML parlay risk 1.15u to win 1u, I didn't include Texas because I think Oakland has a real shot at winning that game.ETA: I agree on Michigan, added them to my list, found a +2 for 1/2u and played the rest at +1.5
 
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Time for another experiment......

Last year I learned that betting NCAA futures was a loser, parlaying the ML was a much better option.

This year I'm forcing myself to re-learn that lesson

Kansas to win +480 1k to win 4.8k

Couple things

1. The ML for game 1 is -20000 and it's only available at 5dimes. I don't have the bankroll there to get a bet down on that line.

2. 2nd option is Kansas to make sweet 16 -482. Looking at the Pitt/butler line for reference(a 1/8 matchup) I see Pitt is about -350 on the ML so I'd rather wait til game 2 to start ML wagering. In addition to that the 2nd option is considered a prop, small limits so yet again I can't make a wager on it.

3. ML wagering will start with game 2 against UNLV/Ill, I won't actually be making the ML wagers but I want to simulate so I can see which is better.

4. My advantage here is if Kansas makes the sweet 16 they're looking at Richmond/Morehead St winner to get to the elite 8. The bottom half of their bracket is weak IMO. Looking ahead to the final 4 they get another break with OSU/Duke(with irving) on the opposite side.

Last year my experiment cost me about 9k, I'm hoping for better results this year :excited:

 
Well my two today are Marquette +2.5 and LIU +17.5 based on everything I'm seeing and hearing. Looks like lump and Ferris each have one of those so I like that.

Gonna add George Mason +1.5 for now, will wait for NittanyLion to see what he has going also. glllll

 
Good Morning, Gents. Here's to a profitable day.

Again, it appears I'm somewhat contrarian, but here's what I think: All the Teams playing today watched the games yesterday, and the higher seeds will be better mentally prepared to expect the unexpected. Also, I have to believe that sharps made good money yesterday betting dogs, and between that and the square public, and of course the casino's seeing how yesterday unfolded, we're going to see a shift towards chalk covering.

Early Games:

I love Oakland, and Keith Benson. I think Texas is an unfortunate matchup for them today. Texas looked better in the B12 Tourney, and they have the inside guys to regulate Benson. Nice story, but in the end, Texas covers double digits. Small though, only 1 Unit.

Tennessee -1: Tennessee's major attribute is toughness, and with all the turmoil surrounding the program, I'm feeling strongly that they will turn that inwards, and find refuge on the basketball court. Take a tough team, and give them a purpose, and then give them a bona fide stud guard in Scotty Hopson. This is a 2u play.

Notre Dame -14: Akron is strong on the inside and have a bona fide Center in Zeke Marshall. Notre Dame can run Akron out of the gym, and score at will from 3-Point land. This is just a mismatch that the Irish should exploit, and Akron doesn't have the tools to catch up once they're down big. 1u.

Villanova -1.5: Mason deserves respect for last year, but that was then, and this is now. Everyone sees the Villanova that's been terrible over the last month, but that was in Conference Play vs some of the best Teams in the country, and the Big East Tourney. Now they've had some time off to rest Cory Fisher and regroup. I think you're all going to be surprised at how capable the Wildcats are of dominating a non-Big East opponent.1u.

Texas A&M -1: ACC is not itself this year, and Seminoles may be without Chris Singleton, or have him at less than 100% at best. Two defensive Teams, but Singleton is what makes the FSU D work. -1 is a toss-up, A&M is capable of 'just winning'. 1u.

I'll write up the later games later - for what it's worth, at 1st glance I like UNLV, Washington, Purdue, Xavier, don't know who I'm betting or how much yet, though.

Good Luck!!!

 
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