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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (6 Viewers)

'nittanylion said:
Still trying to figure out this year's NCAA thing.Houston (-28) at home vs Rice - let's not even take into consideration how bad Rice is, for a moment (and they are really, really bad...on BOTH sides of the ball). Morbidly so.Houston has a many strong things playing in their favor tonight to cover a monster 4 TD spread here.1. First of all, they are another upstart mid-major (see Boise St., et al), undefeated and in the Top 25. There are very strong motivational factors to consider, as it's safe to assume they know how the system works: they're in the spotlight tonight, with voters focusing their attention on them as they play at home vs a vastly inferior opponent. In the interest of gaining votes and moving up the polls, it's absolutely necessary for them to win this game, and by a very large margin...because that's what they're SUPPOSED to do.2. Houston QB Case Keenum is a legitimate Heisman candidate. Again he's in the spotlight, and has the opportunity to shine with everyone's eyes on him. Keenum has some eye-popping situational things going on: as the starting QB of the Cougars, he's a MONSTER at home: 17-0, and 14-2 vs the spread, and boy do they like to kick the crap out of inferior opponents: when Keenum is QB'ing, and they are favored by more than 17 points, they've won all 9 of those instances by an average of 30+ points.Houston is already a Team that has a potent offense, and doesn't mind running the score up under normal circumstances, especially at home, and with Keenum under center. Throw in the situation they are in tonight, and then factor in how pathetically bad Rice is, and 4 TD's starts to look very manageable.4.5u. I'm all in.
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I got 2 units Houston -27.5 and 2 units 1h -17.
 
'derek245583 said:
'Raider Nation said:
What am I missing here? :confused:

How does Stanford/USC not go over 59½? I can't see either defense slowing down either offense.
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The biggest thing I think is that neither team runs the hurry up no huddle...It has to cost teams a few possessions a game...With the new rules in CFB (and I use "new" loosely as they have been in effect for a few years) it really affects the teams that run normal pro style offenses...

Teams like Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech...it doesnt make a difference if they were playing NFL clock rules, they are still getting off 70-80 plays a game.

I understand all of this stuff is built into the line, but with 2 pro style offenses, there is no margin for error to get to 60 pts...with a game involving Oklahoma State and Oregon, I think you can afford a few mistakes like turnovers in the red zone/missed fgs/ etc.

Just my 2 pennies
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:goodposting: Thanks.

 
Got on teaser VA +21/UN55 for 2.5u

Got tex +1.5 (-200ish) and OV 7. - 1u eacg

Halftime big play: MIA -7 -115 for 10u

 
'derek245583 said:
Houston and Tulsa had 80.5 back in '08:lmao:I am gonna be here awhile
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I don't know what it is but whenever I see totals in that neighborhood, it takes all my strength to not bet EVERYTHING on the overs. It's so much fun watching CFB games where the defenses are helpless. But it seems like every time a shootout like that is expected, it never lives up to the hype.
 
'The Ref said:
'nittanylion said:
Still trying to figure out this year's NCAA thing.Houston (-28) at home vs Rice - let's not even take into consideration how bad Rice is, for a moment (and they are really, really bad...on BOTH sides of the ball). Morbidly so.Houston has a many strong things playing in their favor tonight to cover a monster 4 TD spread here.1. First of all, they are another upstart mid-major (see Boise St., et al), undefeated and in the Top 25. There are very strong motivational factors to consider, as it's safe to assume they know how the system works: they're in the spotlight tonight, with voters focusing their attention on them as they play at home vs a vastly inferior opponent. In the interest of gaining votes and moving up the polls, it's absolutely necessary for them to win this game, and by a very large margin...because that's what they're SUPPOSED to do.2. Houston QB Case Keenum is a legitimate Heisman candidate. Again he's in the spotlight, and has the opportunity to shine with everyone's eyes on him. Keenum has some eye-popping situational things going on: as the starting QB of the Cougars, he's a MONSTER at home: 17-0, and 14-2 vs the spread, and boy do they like to kick the crap out of inferior opponents: when Keenum is QB'ing, and they are favored by more than 17 points, they've won all 9 of those instances by an average of 30+ points.Houston is already a Team that has a potent offense, and doesn't mind running the score up under normal circumstances, especially at home, and with Keenum under center. Throw in the situation they are in tonight, and then factor in how pathetically bad Rice is, and 4 TD's starts to look very manageable.4.5u. I'm all in.
Click to expand...
I got 2 units Houston -27.5 and 2 units 1h -17.
Click to expand...
Great job 1st half, the ref!
 
'Raider Nation said:
'derek245583 said:
Houston and Tulsa had 80.5 back in '08:lmao:I am gonna be here awhile
Click to expand...
I don't know what it is but whenever I see totals in that neighborhood, it takes all my strength to not bet EVERYTHING on the overs. It's so much fun watching CFB games where the defenses are helpless. But it seems like every time a shootout like that is expected, it never lives up to the hype.
Click to expand...
Pretty much my favorite thing to do...And you are right, always ends up a dud.2 years ago (I think)...Missouri and Nevada on Thursday night and the total was huge. I was down in Gatlinburg for a wedding and bored, so I decided to take the over pretty large...I think it ended up like 22-13 or something stupid.
 
'nittanylion said:
'The Ref said:
'nittanylion said:
Still trying to figure out this year's NCAA thing.Houston (-28) at home vs Rice - let's not even take into consideration how bad Rice is, for a moment (and they are really, really bad...on BOTH sides of the ball). Morbidly so.Houston has a many strong things playing in their favor tonight to cover a monster 4 TD spread here.1. First of all, they are another upstart mid-major (see Boise St., et al), undefeated and in the Top 25. There are very strong motivational factors to consider, as it's safe to assume they know how the system works: they're in the spotlight tonight, with voters focusing their attention on them as they play at home vs a vastly inferior opponent. In the interest of gaining votes and moving up the polls, it's absolutely necessary for them to win this game, and by a very large margin...because that's what they're SUPPOSED to do.2. Houston QB Case Keenum is a legitimate Heisman candidate. Again he's in the spotlight, and has the opportunity to shine with everyone's eyes on him. Keenum has some eye-popping situational things going on: as the starting QB of the Cougars, he's a MONSTER at home: 17-0, and 14-2 vs the spread, and boy do they like to kick the crap out of inferior opponents: when Keenum is QB'ing, and they are favored by more than 17 points, they've won all 9 of those instances by an average of 30+ points.Houston is already a Team that has a potent offense, and doesn't mind running the score up under normal circumstances, especially at home, and with Keenum under center. Throw in the situation they are in tonight, and then factor in how pathetically bad Rice is, and 4 TD's starts to look very manageable.4.5u. I'm all in.
Click to expand...
I got 2 units Houston -27.5 and 2 units 1h -17.
Click to expand...
Great job 1st half, the ref!
Click to expand...
Lol - I stoped following the game when it was 20-20 in the 2q.
 
As a Red Sox fan, I'm rolling with the Red Birds tonight. When a team blows a game 6 they very often don't win game 7. 138-100 is in.

 
'Raider Nation said:
'hooter311 said:
'Raider Nation said:
Afternoon, gents. Anybody got a strong BYU/TCU lean? I got nothin'.
Click to expand...
Over. How are either of these teams going to slow down the other. TCU seems to thrive in shootouts.
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Hmmm. Maybe I haven't seen BYU lately, but I recall games this season where their offense looked hideous.
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That was with Jake Heaps at the helf...Riley Nelson has taken over and things are much better for BYU on the offensive side of the ball. Riley can move a little which helps any offense and he is every bit as good as Heaps throwing the ball.
 
'Raider Nation said:
'hooter311 said:
'Raider Nation said:
Afternoon, gents. Anybody got a strong BYU/TCU lean? I got nothin'.
Click to expand...
Over. How are either of these teams going to slow down the other. TCU seems to thrive in shootouts.
Click to expand...
Hmmm. Maybe I haven't seen BYU lately, but I recall games this season where their offense looked hideous.
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Yeah, BYU has looked very average in the games I've seen. They won at Ol Miss and shoulda won at Texas, not a bad start (didn't watch those), but after that, here's what I remember:Absolutely embarrassed by a UTAH team that is down this year, 54-10. Huge rivalry, that is awful.Got lucky to beat UCF at home (on national TV, so no let-down), getting 2 turnovers (to none) and being out gained by 140 yards.Got even luckier to beat UTAH STATE, again at home. Granted, Utah State is no slouch this year, but I don't think they've ever beat BYU...not there at least.Beat a SAN JOSE STATE team without their best player. You might remember me on here taking SJSU against Hawaii because they got that same RB back...Beat OREGON STATE, who sucks and IDAHO STATE, ditto. Did not see those two but still...
 
:goodposting:

Riley Nelson not only is a better passer, he's a two dimensional QB that helps out the rushing offense as well.

Currently at +13.5, this line ought to move to +14 prior to game time. If so, I'll work them into College Teasers as a +21 leg, and probably tease within this one just for s&g while watching the baseball game tonight, (BYU/Over).

 
'[icon] said:
Got on teaser VA +21/UN55 for 2.5u

Got tex +1.5 (-200ish) and OV 7. - 1u eacg

Halftime big play: MIA -7 -115 for 10u
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Another drunken play apparently activated last night6.5 Point Teaser -10u to win 8.5u

Arkansas -3

Florida(N) +9.5

:lmao: I like the play but that's probably a stepping out a little more than I should have :lmao:

 
'The Ref said:
'Tiger Fan said:
what's the consensus on the baseball game
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red birds.
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Yeah, but because Nolan Ryan is the only man in America taking the Rangers, that line has gotta be outta whack (although I haven't even checked it yet). If I didn't have a redbird bet on the series already, I'd be taking the Rangers on value alone.I never completely understand the momentum thing in baseball. This is not a contact sport where guys can absolutely will themselves to victory. The other 3 major sports, sure, but baseball??? If one player, the pitcher, has a great game, I don't care how fired up Rafael Furcal is, it's not gonna matter. Yeah, I saw the interviews in the Rangers locker room after, they look beaten. But today's a new day and it won't take much for them to turn it around. Again, if one player's arm (Carp) doesn't hold up, those guys will hit him and whoever else is left out there....whatever "mood" they're in.I don't know, it just cracks me up every time I hear the pundits exclaim how the Rangers are done, totally writing them off. It's all I heard. Now, I'll concede there is absolutely an advantage here -- not saying that -- I just think it's way overblown.Obviously hope I'm wrong, btw, and the Rangers do in fact lay down, but I really doubt it.
 
Wings and Flames tonight in hockey.

TCU -13

I'm undecided on the over/under in TCU/BYU.

Rangers team total over 3.5

 
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