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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
That's not gambling. 
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
You guys are in position to play the over in the 2H CHI/OAK and only lose the vig if you are getting nervous.
The Ref
Footballguy
Kept a steady hand here. I gave away profit trying for the middle with Va Tech and Im not feeling nervous about this bet at all. (get ready for the KR and Pick 6.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
The Ref
Footballguy
Not sure if we want a TD or FG here.....looks like TD it is.No balls, no glory. Gotta keep punishing the Bears for one more quarter.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Well this sucks. :(
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
The Ref
Footballguy
Little backstory here. I drafted Knox this year after having him last year and ended up cutting him. Someone else in my leauge that I could use a loss out of today picked him and started him as an emergancy start. Needless to say I'm less then thrilled about the over, but Knox just put me over.
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
Quarterback: most overrated position in the NFL.'culdeus said:
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I should have smelled something fishy with that Seattle line. The books got over on me again.
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Insoxicated
LSU -10 (-140) Bought it down... for 2u
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Of the early CFB lines next week, I like Clemson +7 quite a bit. In Charlotte, Va Tech seems to be peaking with the public and Clemson has been murdered the past two weeks. Clemson won 23-3 earlier this year at Va Tech and I'm hoping this moves more toward Va Tech as I'll wait for at least a hook.
Eleven also seems like a lot to give Iowa State at K-State. Iowa State has improved a ton and K-State generally plays to their competition.
Eleven also seems like a lot to give Iowa State at K-State. Iowa State has improved a ton and K-State generally plays to their competition.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Gambling theory question:
If you're deciding whether to place a bet on prop X at -110 (52.38% break-even), at what thresholds do you bet 1, 2, etc. units? And what percentage of one's bankroll is typically a "unit"? Obviously depends on risk tolerance, but are there any guidelines as to this?
If you're deciding whether to place a bet on prop X at -110 (52.38% break-even), at what thresholds do you bet 1, 2, etc. units? And what percentage of one's bankroll is typically a "unit"? Obviously depends on risk tolerance, but are there any guidelines as to this?
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Insoxicated
Currently playing about 1% of roll per unit. More typically you'll see ~3% If you play a lot of plays obviously you want to go smaller than if you only make a couple plays a week then you can risk larger units without as much risk of busting
TheWick
Footballguy
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MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Whatever you think the % the play is going to win. Somebody like Lumpy knows the actual math. Google "Kelly betting system." That will give you an idea on how much to bet. I think it's to each his own and what you feel comfortable with. I have a general unit amount but will throw much more down on certain plays and bet other action plays for smaller amounts.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Exactly what I was looking for. I have an NBA system that's pretty much ready to go, and I could certainly employ a crude, un-mathy version, but I'd prefer to gain every edge possible.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I employ a strategy of trying to maximize based on certain perceived or proven knowledge and past successes.
I put 5% per bet on CFB regular season
5% on hockey playoffs
5% on NFL playoffs
4-6% on hockey regular season (depends on streaks)
4% on NFL regular season
3% on baseball regular season
2% on CBB
2% on cricket
This is a roundabout number and I adjust the amounts based on a gain or loss of 20%.
Baseball playoffs and bowl games are the outliers, I bet those heavy handed depending on the match-ups and they often become emotional endeavors. Those are the ones that are dangerous but I seem to lose on bowls and win at baseball every year so I guess it evens out.
I put 5% per bet on CFB regular season
5% on hockey playoffs
5% on NFL playoffs
4-6% on hockey regular season (depends on streaks)
4% on NFL regular season
3% on baseball regular season
2% on CBB
2% on cricket
This is a roundabout number and I adjust the amounts based on a gain or loss of 20%.
Baseball playoffs and bowl games are the outliers, I bet those heavy handed depending on the match-ups and they often become emotional endeavors. Those are the ones that are dangerous but I seem to lose on bowls and win at baseball every year so I guess it evens out.
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Eviloutsider
Footballguy
Badgers lost to Michigan State earlier this year when they were 7 point favorites. Now Wisconsin is an 11.5 point favorite at a neutral site. Seems weird.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
The Broncos are playing great defense, and they're winning the close games. That's pretty much all there is to it.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
I have way more then I care to have on Luck to win the Heisman at -260 and -120. Richardson is clearly the favorite here right? Nobody else stands much of a chance? Maybe Weeden with a huge game against OU? Idea on odds Richardson will come out with this week, anything under -200?
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
I actually want to find a closed forum to post it on, but I'll let y'all know. It's a system that takes advantage of an inefficiency on one particular prop, but it's an inefficiency that could be patched up very easily, if crudely. And while I'm probably being paranoid to think thers's any chance that Sportsbook Inc. is trawling through popular sports websites for nickel and dimers such as myself who have figured out how to beat one of their many offerings, I've put in too much time on this to take any chances.The Kelly Criterion stuff is great as an equation to bet-size optimally, but I think everyone who uses it probably divides the result by a fixed number to further mitigate risk. Otherwise, you're going to be going broke very often. I plugged in the numbers for what would be a very good play hypothetically (I think it was a -110 bet that I projected to hit 65% of the time) and the number it gave was to bet 30% of one's bankroll. So I'll probably divide all results by 4 or 5 or something. But very helpful all the same.Please share when you get it off the ground. Anything to make that garbage watchable.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Keenum has a better chance than Weeden.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
If it's as good as you claim, you'll soon be killing SB one U.S. dollar at a time.I actually want to find a closed forum to post it on, but I'll let y'all know. It's a system that takes advantage of an inefficiency on one particular prop, but it's an inefficiency that could be patched up very easily, if crudely. And while I'm probably being paranoid to think thers's any chance that Sportsbook Inc. is trawling through popular sports websites for nickel and dimers such as myself who have figured out how to beat one of their many offerings, I've put in too much time on this to take any chances.The Kelly Criterion stuff is great as an equation to bet-size optimally, but I think everyone who uses it probably divides the result by a fixed number to further mitigate risk. Otherwise, you're going to be going broke very often. I plugged in the numbers for what would be a very good play hypothetically (I think it was a -110 bet that I projected to hit 65% of the time) and the number it gave was to bet 30% of one's bankroll. So I'll probably divide all results by 4 or 5 or something. But very helpful all the same.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Actually, I think Kelly stuff is justification to bet more than I normally would have. I think my "ceiling" will be around 6% of my BR per bet.If it's as good as you claim, you'll soon be killing SB one U.S. dollar at a time.I actually want to find a closed forum to post it on, but I'll let y'all know. It's a system that takes advantage of an inefficiency on one particular prop, but it's an inefficiency that could be patched up very easily, if crudely. And while I'm probably being paranoid to think thers's any chance that Sportsbook Inc. is trawling through popular sports websites for nickel and dimers such as myself who have figured out how to beat one of their many offerings, I've put in too much time on this to take any chances.The Kelly Criterion stuff is great as an equation to bet-size optimally, but I think everyone who uses it probably divides the result by a fixed number to further mitigate risk. Otherwise, you're going to be going broke very often. I plugged in the numbers for what would be a very good play hypothetically (I think it was a -110 bet that I projected to hit 65% of the time) and the number it gave was to bet 30% of one's bankroll. So I'll probably divide all results by 4 or 5 or something. But very helpful all the same.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I think you misunderstood. Most guys here who had any level of sustained success at SB saw their limit cut to $1.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Ahhh, I got you now. That would be a bummer, although an honor of sorts. And I've got plenty of proxy people I can use. But I don't think my BR is big enough to attract that much attention.
cstu
Footballguy
I also put bets on two other frontrunners:The Descendants +600The Artist +600The only other likely winner I didn't bet on was War Horse (Spielburg's WWI movie) which I didn't think was worth +450. If it starts looking more like it has a chance I'll cover my bases but I think there's an 80% chance one of those three will win. It looks like it will be very popular with the public but it doesn't seem like the type of movie to win Best Picture.Edit: After reading more about War Horse I decided to lock it in. One of these four movies is going to win and worst case is I win $250. Best case is $5500 on Extremely Loud.
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lumpy19
Footballguy
The hardest part about the "math" of sportsbetting is estimating your edge. I size my bets based on what I think my edge is but who the hell knows, it's incredibly difficult(at least for me)I can't remember the last time I bet 3% of my bankroll on anything, I'd say I usually max out at 2% and most of my bets are in the 1% range. Anything that I actually know that I have a huge edge in(like props) I usually just bet the max allowed because prop limits are small(big shout out to betonline who had 1k prop limits last year and $200 prop limits this year). If you can find an edge in a large market like the NBA which has tons of games and big limits you'll be rolling in cash.
lumpy19
Footballguy
I've often seen 1/4 kelly mentioned for exactly what you stated.I actually want to find a closed forum to post it on, but I'll let y'all know. It's a system that takes advantage of an inefficiency on one particular prop, but it's an inefficiency that could be patched up very easily, if crudely. And while I'm probably being paranoid to think thers's any chance that Sportsbook Inc. is trawling through popular sports websites for nickel and dimers such as myself who have figured out how to beat one of their many offerings, I've put in too much time on this to take any chances.
The Kelly Criterion stuff is great as an equation to bet-size optimally, but I think everyone who uses it probably divides the result by a fixed number to further mitigate risk. Otherwise, you're going to be going broke very often. I plugged in the numbers for what would be a very good play hypothetically (I think it was a -110 bet that I projected to hit 65% of the time) and the number it gave was to bet 30% of one's bankroll. So I'll probably divide all results by 4 or 5 or something. But very helpful all the same.
lumpy19
Footballguy
I would bet 100% of my bankroll on these lines if I could
New York Giants vs New Orleans Saints
Total receiving yards by Jimmy Graham
08:35 PM 23949 Over 6 Receiving Yards -120
23950 Under 6 Receiving Yards -110
New York Giants vs New Orleans Saints
Total receiving yards by Marquis Colston
08:35 PM 23947 Over 5½ Receiving Yards +100
23948 Under 5½ Receiving Yards -130
I hopped on chat to tell them the lines were wrong and they insisted they weren't.
New York Giants vs New Orleans Saints
Total receiving yards by Jimmy Graham
08:35 PM 23949 Over 6 Receiving Yards -120
23950 Under 6 Receiving Yards -110
New York Giants vs New Orleans Saints
Total receiving yards by Marquis Colston
08:35 PM 23947 Over 5½ Receiving Yards +100
23948 Under 5½ Receiving Yards -130
I hopped on chat to tell them the lines were wrong and they insisted they weren't.
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Insoxicated
That was either not SB or they fixed it.I would bet 100% of my bankroll on these lines if I couldNew York Giants vs New Orleans SaintsTotal receiving yards by Jimmy Graham08:35 PM 23949 Over 6 Receiving Yards -120 23950 Under 6 Receiving Yards -110 New York Giants vs New Orleans SaintsTotal receiving yards by Marquis Colston08:35 PM 23947 Over 5½ Receiving Yards +100 23948 Under 5½ Receiving Yards -130 I hopped on chat to tell them the lines were wrong and they insisted they weren't.
sheerterror
Footballguy
Damn. That explains the lack of offered props this weekend. I chalked it up to it being a holiday weekend and maybe some people were slacking. This market is drying up quick.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Just hire Gooroo for 60k per year and have him be your prop guy. It's not very hard. Look up the guys accts who consistently win and hire a few more guys to help for 30k per year.
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
I have guys that have been cut on props at 5dimes.
lumpy19
Footballguy
Beating prop lines is a lot easier than generating them
