FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (13 Viewers)

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I hate it when my initial lean is correct and I bet the other way. Bruins were awful tonight.

 

[modogg]

You gotta be kidding me with those Capitals goals.

That is a heartbreaking loss. Islanders dominated that game and had a three on one empty netter they kicked, and failed to clear the zone with 20 seconds left on what should have been an easy play.

well, you can do like i did and add to the Flyers and the over ETA: by the way, there was no doubt the Islanders were the right call in the game. A crappy loss, but, for the most part, the right call.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

You gotta be kidding me with those Capitals goals.

That is a heartbreaking loss. Islanders dominated that game and had a three on one empty netter they kicked, and failed to clear the zone with 20 seconds left on what should have been an easy play.

well, you can do like i did and add to the Flyers and the over ETA: by the way, there was no doubt the Islanders were the right call in the game. A crappy loss, but, for the most part, the right call.

Yeah I have Flyers and the over.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

alright, I'm with you guys.

Flyers/Over. Let's do this.

 

[gmbacm]

alright, I'm with you guys.Flyers/Over. Let's do this.

in

 

[Raider Nation]

alright, I'm with you guys.Flyers/Over. Let's do this.

Why not!

 

[D-BO]

On that over as well. F the Bruins!

Also taking the Kings -3

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Tried what I will call a "Rude Parlay" tonight since the chalk parlays have been a ####.

Parlayed the unders in the Caps/Isles and Kings/Wild, WINNAH! So with that in my Indiana tail I'm about even, let's win some money on the FLYERS AND GOALS!!!!

 

[modogg]

alright, I'm with you guys.Flyers/Over. Let's do this.

well, i'm more confident in the over than the Flyers. Sharks are one of those teams that play the Flyers well (a silly stat because teams change a lot, but still something), and they are back from that crazy road trip. but i think the Flyers are the better team, and they do well lighting up NiemiETA: the only thing that worries me is i can't get out of my head that this reminds of 2 great wrestlers in MMA, standing and trading strikes for 3 rounds. All signs point to this game going over, yet i have that creeping feeling in my head that both teams will get this dumb idea to play a lot more conservative tonight. The FLyers know they can't with their goaltending, but still..

 

[gmbacm]

alright, I'm with you guys.Flyers/Over. Let's do this.

in

Added O1.5 1st period

 

[modogg]

What's a good way to forestall getting cut on props at SB? If I start betting more on sides/totals, will that make them less likely to cut props? Or will they just cut props?:lhucks:

It'll help if you balance your action, but it's pretty much inevitable. You could be playing 50k/day in sides, but if you're crushing them in props you'll get cut.

Good to know.Question 2: Do you hockey guys ever look at the player props for NHL, given how, ahem, odd some of their prop lines can be? I know that soccer is bad and baseball is bad, so I assume the rest stink as well.

now you have me thinking about these. For me, i think they are so unpredictable from night to night, but tonight i will go with: Scott Hartnell -105 over Logan Couture

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

alright, I'm with you guys.Flyers/Over. Let's do this.

well, i'm more confident in the over than the Flyers. Sharks are one of those teams that play the Flyers well (a silly stat because teams change a lot, but still something), and they are back from that crazy road trip. but i think the Flyers are the better team, and they do well lighting up Niemi

Here's some of my thoughts:Bruins were home tonight after a 6-game road trip and looked like garbage for the first 50 minutes or so. They were very lucky to even be in it at the end. Hoping something similar happens here with San Jose.Sharks have been bad for awhile and haven't been that great at home all year. They gave up 4 goals to the Wild and 6 to Columbus. At even money, I'm with DrD and others on the Flyers here.

 

[Pumpnick]

alright, I'm with you guys.Flyers/Over. Let's do this.

in

in

 

[modogg]

might be time to start fading the Flames.

With this, is it time to start riding the Kings? I know they played the Wild tonight, but they have looked better recently. i'm not sold on them yet, but i know the unders aren't as juicy as they were for awhile with them

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Over in the San Jose game just went from -125 to -130 to -125 to -120 on 5dimes in the past 5 minutes.

 

[The Ref]

Good luck with Phi/Over. We don't like it to bet it, but if I did we would bet Over Phi and under SJ shots.

 

[dude]

in on the Flyers...

 

[Good Posting Judge]

What's a good way to forestall getting cut on props at SB? If I start betting more on sides/totals, will that make them less likely to cut props? Or will they just cut props?:lhucks:

It'll help if you balance your action, but it's pretty much inevitable. You could be playing 50k/day in sides, but if you're crushing them in props you'll get cut.

Good to know.Question 2: Do you hockey guys ever look at the player props for NHL, given how, ahem, odd some of their prop lines can be? I know that soccer is bad and baseball is bad, so I assume the rest stink as well.

now you have me thinking about these. For me, i think they are so unpredictable from night to night, but tonight i will go with: Scott Hartnell -105 over Logan Couture

I was listening to a podcast with the head linesmaker at SB around SB time, and he said he took pride in the props that they set themselves and offer, and that they offer them both ways. Game lines and totals are calculated by some very sharp people and computers, and SB backs those. A lot of these props are set by some yay-hoo in Costa Rica, and it shows sometimes.

 

[gmbacm]

alright, I'm with you guys.Flyers/Over. Let's do this.

in

Added O1.5 1st period

Good start here...

 

[modogg]

What's a good way to forestall getting cut on props at SB? If I start betting more on sides/totals, will that make them less likely to cut props? Or will they just cut props?:lhucks:

It'll help if you balance your action, but it's pretty much inevitable. You could be playing 50k/day in sides, but if you're crushing them in props you'll get cut.

Good to know.Question 2: Do you hockey guys ever look at the player props for NHL, given how, ahem, odd some of their prop lines can be? I know that soccer is bad and baseball is bad, so I assume the rest stink as well.

now you have me thinking about these. For me, i think they are so unpredictable from night to night, but tonight i will go with: Scott Hartnell -105 over Logan Couture

I was listening to a podcast with the head linesmaker at SB around SB time, and he said he took pride in the props that they set themselves and offer, and that they offer them both ways. Game lines and totals are calculated by some very sharp people and computers, and SB backs those. A lot of these props are set by some yay-hoo in Costa Rica, and it shows sometimes.

hmm, interesting. I don't follow the NHL enough to exploit the player props, but i did pretty good backing Jagr and Giroux early in the season, and also when Giroux had his cold streak. I think he is coming out of it, but we'll see.ETA: i do know the lines can be pretty juicy sometimes, and it seems like there is good value there quite a bit

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Podcast with Michael Perry, GM at Sportsbook.ag:

http://pregame.com/pregame_blogs/b/podcasts/archive/2012/01/31/betting-dork-michael-perry-senior-manager-oddsmaker-sportsbook-ag-amp-nfl-megapod-super-bowl-props-edition.aspx

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Speaking of SB, is anyone still alive in the free NBA survivor pool?

 

[Raider Nation]

There is ZERO chance this game is going over with half the free world on it. We knew it before the puck dropped.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

You know how people say "I wouldn't care if my team lost every game for the next three years if we just win this championship"? That's kind of what real life is like if you're a fan of Connecticut basketball. Nice run of titles, but dear God there have been some grim years over the last decade.

 

[Garrett]

You know how people say "I wouldn't care if my team lost every game for the next three years if we just win this championship"? That's kind of what real life is like if you're a fan of Connecticut basketball. Nice run of titles, but dear God there have been some grim years over the last decade.

UConn made it to at least the Elite Eight in 1998, 1999, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, and 2011. What are these grim years you speak of?

 

[Raider Nation]

This is comical.

 

[modogg]

Good luck with Phi/Over. We don't like it to bet it, but if I did we would bet Over Phi and under SJ shots.

i'm watching this game, and the statisticians seem to be shorting the Flyers on a few shots. We'll see if it evens out, based on what ESPN is reporting, but could be pretty frustrating if they come up short. i checked sportsline, ESPN, and the boxscore, and after the 1st period i had 3 different numbers..

 

[Good Posting Judge]

2005 was OK-ish. 2nd round KO to NCSt. IIRC.

2007 I think they missed the NCAA and the NIT. Incredibly young team that was just brutal.

2008 they were a #4 seed and lost in the first round when Price blew out his knee.

2010 they didn't make the NCAA.

2012 isn't looking good for the NCAA.

2013 they might be DQ'ed because of the academic sins of former players.

That's potentially 4 NCAA misses in a 7 year span, depending on how the APR appeal shakes out. Add in the Nate Miles scandal, JC getting cancer and spinal stenosis, an incompetent AD that's only recently been replaced, the laptop scandal, various other academic and disciplinary infractions, there's been a lot of ugliness amongst the good times.

 

[The Ref]

Good luck with Phi/Over. We don't like it to bet it, but if I did we would bet Over Phi and under SJ shots.

i'm watching this game, and the statisticians seem to be shorting the Flyers on a few shots. We'll see if it evens out, based on what ESPN is reporting, but could be pretty frustrating if they come up short. i checked sportsline, ESPN, and the boxscore, and after the 1st period i had 3 different numbers..

I got them "at halftime" with 15 shots. Down 1-0 I think I would still lean the over. Dont see SJ gettiing to 35 tonight, but if any team could put up 21 shots in half a game it is this team.

 

[Kubes]

2005 was OK-ish. 2nd round KO to NCSt. IIRC.2007 I think they missed the NCAA and the NIT. Incredibly young team that was just brutal.2008 they were a #4 seed and lost in the first round when Price blew out his knee.2010 they didn't make the NCAA.2012 isn't looking good for the NCAA.2013 they might be DQ'ed because of the academic sins of former players.That's potentially 4 NCAA misses in a 7 year span, depending on how the APR appeal shakes out. Add in the Nate Miles scandal, JC getting cancer and spinal stenosis, an incompetent AD that's only recently been replaced, the laptop scandal, various other academic and disciplinary infractions, there's been a lot of ugliness amongst the good times.

As a Gopher fan I'd trade histories immediately, but I also get where you are coming from. Backing college hoops teams somehow seems the most heartbreaking of all.

 

[Raider Nation]

Update: there was a shot on goal. I forget by which team.

 

[Garrett]

2005 was OK-ish. 2nd round KO to NCSt. IIRC.2007 I think they missed the NCAA and the NIT. Incredibly young team that was just brutal.2008 they were a #4 seed and lost in the first round when Price blew out his knee.2010 they didn't make the NCAA.2012 isn't looking good for the NCAA.2013 they might be DQ'ed because of the academic sins of former players.That's potentially 4 NCAA misses in a 7 year span, depending on how the APR appeal shakes out. Add in the Nate Miles scandal, JC getting cancer and spinal stenosis, an incompetent AD that's only recently been replaced, the laptop scandal, various other academic and disciplinary infractions, there's been a lot of ugliness amongst the good times.

Northwestern has not made it into the NCAA tournament once in 72 years.UConn was there 1951, 1954, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1967, 1976, 1979, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2011.I guess what I don't understand, is that UConn has been especially good in the last decade.

 

[modogg]

Good luck with Phi/Over. We don't like it to bet it, but if I did we would bet Over Phi and under SJ shots.

i'm watching this game, and the statisticians seem to be shorting the Flyers on a few shots. We'll see if it evens out, based on what ESPN is reporting, but could be pretty frustrating if they come up short. i checked sportsline, ESPN, and the boxscore, and after the 1st period i had 3 different numbers..

I got them "at halftime" with 15 shots. Down 1-0 I think I would still lean the over. Dont see SJ gettiing to 35 tonight, but if any team could put up 21 shots in half a game it is this team.

Flyers have had poor 2nd periods for a couple of games in a row. Really hoping they can get to 20 by the end of the 2nd, and hope they can bust out with 17 shots in the 3rd for 5 goals.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

last time I bet the Flyers over, they were shutout by the Oilers 0-2.

last time I bet the Sharks over, they beat Toronto 2-1.

I hate these teams.

 

[Raider Nation]

last time I bet the Flyers over, they were shutout by the Oilers 0-2.last time I bet the Sharks over, they beat Toronto 2-1.I hate these teams.

Chin up. Philly almost crossed center ice once.

 

[modogg]

last time I bet the Flyers over, they were shutout by the Oilers 0-2.last time I bet the Sharks over, they beat Toronto 2-1.I hate these teams.

Seriously. Flyers need a goal bad, Sharks are playing way too conservative and barely even trying to put any offense in the game right now.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Ok, over is FUBAR. Let's go FLYERS!

 

[modogg]

Ok, over is FUBAR. Let's go FLYERS!

This game is an absolute #### show. I should have considered the Flyers at the end of their road trip here would be a little less energetic, but oh well.ETA: Flyers should be on a 5 minute major right now

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Ok, over is FUBAR. Let's go FLYERS!

This game is an absolute #### show. I should have considered the Flyers at the end of their road trip here would be a little less energetic, but oh well.ETA: Flyers should be on a 5 minute major right now

How the hell did the Flyers not score there? If that was Caps and Islanders, Caps would have scored twice. Man that loss stings.

 

[modogg]

Ok, over is FUBAR. Let's go FLYERS!

This game is an absolute #### show. I should have considered the Flyers at the end of their road trip here would be a little less energetic, but oh well.ETA: Flyers should be on a 5 minute major right now

How the hell did the Flyers not score there? If that was Caps and Islanders, Caps would have scored twice. Man that loss stings.

Yup. Note to self, do not chase with the Sharks or the Flyers again, at least for a week or 2.

 

[Monkeyface Prickleback]

hey huge props to MP on the Hooseirs call, f msu, nice hit thanks gbAR,

 

[lumpy19]

CBB games starting at noon today...big south conference

 

[Tat]

Marquette ML tonight.

 

[derek245583]

Marquette ML tonight.

 

[Tat]

Marquette ML tonight.

What's the take from the Cincy side of things?

 

[derek245583]

Marquette ML tonight.

What's the take from the Cincy side of things?

I think you are right...I think marquette beats em.I just think UC needs it BAD.I wont ever bet against UC, but I will tell you guys when I dont like them and I am officially telling you that.

 

[mquinnjr]

No odds up for the Phillies FSU game today.

Is it Saturday yet?

 

[gussy]

Louisville -9

Richmond -2

Kent St. -2

Missouri -10 1/2

Mercer -10 1/2

Texas -10

Mavs +2

Will also be playing the Rockets, hopefully +3, if bovada ever gets it posted.

2012 Posted Picks

CBB-104-86-3 (54.7%)

NFL-4-0

NBA-13-11-2

CFB-1-0

NHL-13-17

 

[Tat]

Headed down to the Honda Classic tomorrow. Who we got?

:JEALOUS:Obviously Tiger will be one of the favorites. Haven't seen the odds yet, but will gove my $.02 when they come out.FWIW, I was on fire betting the matchups in the WGC Match Play. Will start posting more in this thread.

pretty sure you will be in The REFs neighborhood, or at least not far from it. I did ok with matchups last week but in the end, i lost a few bucks by doubling and then tripling down on Westy. I was sure he was going to win with the way he was striping those iron shots into the greens. 3 up on rory and then he just fell apart. you could tell that match took its effect on Rory too, as he was drained completely for his match with Mahan. Anyway, I looked at odds yesterday briefly but will do some homework on past results today and see if i can come up with anything.

I made hay on Sang Moon Bae. Had him in the first and second round. My overall bet was Kuchar. Took Mark Wilson in the second round too. Just had a feeling Mahan would win, and thought that +155 was crazy. But after seeing Rory missing some short putts, I felt comfortable letting some winnings ride.

Looking at odds, I went with Mark Wilson @ +3500. The guy is on fire, and this course should lean towards the straight ball hitters, Also like Sean O'Hair, but not to win, may look for him in the matchups. Rory and Westy are both heavy favorites, but too high to wager on. Interesting that Tiger is plus money for the two matchups I see, against McElroy and Westwood. Will be interesting to see how he does at one of these less than glamourous tournaments.

 

[mquinnjr]

Headed down to the Honda Classic tomorrow. Who we got?

:JEALOUS:Obviously Tiger will be one of the favorites. Haven't seen the odds yet, but will gove my $.02 when they come out.FWIW, I was on fire betting the matchups in the WGC Match Play. Will start posting more in this thread.

pretty sure you will be in The REFs neighborhood, or at least not far from it. I did ok with matchups last week but in the end, i lost a few bucks by doubling and then tripling down on Westy. I was sure he was going to win with the way he was striping those iron shots into the greens. 3 up on rory and then he just fell apart. you could tell that match took its effect on Rory too, as he was drained completely for his match with Mahan. Anyway, I looked at odds yesterday briefly but will do some homework on past results today and see if i can come up with anything.

I made hay on Sang Moon Bae. Had him in the first and second round. My overall bet was Kuchar. Took Mark Wilson in the second round too. Just had a feeling Mahan would win, and thought that +155 was crazy. But after seeing Rory missing some short putts, I felt comfortable letting some winnings ride.

Looking at odds, I went with Mark Wilson @ +3500. The guy is on fire, and this course should lean towards the straight ball hitters, Also like Sean O'Hair, but not to win, may look for him in the matchups. Rory and Westy are both heavy favorites, but too high to wager on. Interesting that Tiger is plus money for the two matchups I see, against McElroy and Westwood. Will be interesting to see how he does at one of these less than glamourous tournaments.

Wilson is 46/1 at 5dimes, think I'll throw a little bit as him as a what the heck play. :thumbsup: