FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (13 Viewers)

[Warehouse Nasty]

Loaded up on Marquette tonight.

 

[MarshallPlan]

The Sagarin ratings have Syracuse -1, which isn't far off at all from KP's Wisconsin -1. My model makes it Cuse -1. Teamrankings.com makes it Cuse -2.

This game is a perfect storm, imo. Syracuse massively overrated, Wisconsin massively underrated. Wisconsin improved a ####load during the year and people still remember their early season woes. Cuse plateaued mid-season, especially since Melo isn't there now, and people still remember them being undefeated for so long. And yes, they're deep, but he's by far their most important defender. And Bo Ryan >>>> JB.

Every square I know is all over Syracuse, calling the line a gift, ridiculous, etc. That makes me love Wisconsin all that much more.

I definitely think that it closes lower than 4. If you like Wisconsin, I'd get it now. If you like Cuse, I'd wait.

I can't wait for this one.

Really? How do you figure they're massively over-rated? All the publicity has been cuse lost melo, they're done, you're the first person I've "talked" to who thinks they're massively over-rated. I participated in several calcuttas, SU went far cheaper than every 1 and 2 and even some 3 seeds. The public opinion is that this is a flawed team without Melo.

See all I've heard is "they're so deep that losing Melo won't matter." "They're so long and athletic and fast, etc." Every radio station that I listen to, talking head that I hear, message board poster that I see, etc. is saying how the line is a joke and how Cuse is going to blow out Wisconsin. That is interesting to hear about the calcuttas, but I'd guess that a large reason for that also is that OSU is the #2 in their region, and many power ratings still have them as the #2 or 3 team in the country (rightfully so, imo).

The line itself also tells me that they're overrated, Wisconsin is underrated, or some combination of both.

Did you play a side in that game?

I played cuse -4 when it opened and just added more at CRIS who just moved to -3

For what it's worth I like Cuse as well. I got -190 for them to get to the sweet 16 which I thought was a great price. I'll certainly lay 3 with them tonight.

 

[lumpy19]

The Sagarin ratings have Syracuse -1, which isn't far off at all from KP's Wisconsin -1. My model makes it Cuse -1. Teamrankings.com makes it Cuse -2.

This game is a perfect storm, imo. Syracuse massively overrated, Wisconsin massively underrated. Wisconsin improved a ####load during the year and people still remember their early season woes. Cuse plateaued mid-season, especially since Melo isn't there now, and people still remember them being undefeated for so long. And yes, they're deep, but he's by far their most important defender. And Bo Ryan >>>> JB.

Every square I know is all over Syracuse, calling the line a gift, ridiculous, etc. That makes me love Wisconsin all that much more.

I definitely think that it closes lower than 4. If you like Wisconsin, I'd get it now. If you like Cuse, I'd wait.

I can't wait for this one.

Really? How do you figure they're massively over-rated? All the publicity has been cuse lost melo, they're done, you're the first person I've "talked" to who thinks they're massively over-rated. I participated in several calcuttas, SU went far cheaper than every 1 and 2 and even some 3 seeds. The public opinion is that this is a flawed team without Melo.

See all I've heard is "they're so deep that losing Melo won't matter." "They're so long and athletic and fast, etc." Every radio station that I listen to, talking head that I hear, message board poster that I see, etc. is saying how the line is a joke and how Cuse is going to blow out Wisconsin. That is interesting to hear about the calcuttas, but I'd guess that a large reason for that also is that OSU is the #2 in their region, and many power ratings still have them as the #2 or 3 team in the country (rightfully so, imo).

The line itself also tells me that they're overrated, Wisconsin is underrated, or some combination of both.

Did you play a side in that game?

I played cuse -4 when it opened and just added more at CRIS who just moved to -3

This conversation is interesting. Most of what I've heard is along the lines of what lumpy is saying. To me, if anything, Syracuse is a bit underrated at this point due to the overreaction of Melo going out. I don't see anybody giving them a shot. I play in a big money draft (like a Calcutta) and every #2 seed but Duke went before them. I also think people are overreacting to the Marshall injury for UNC. I need Syracuse for my draft so I'll have a rooting interest in them. Don't think I'll wager on the game otherwise.

Cuse's biggest weakness IMO is allowing offensive boards...K state was a TERRIBLE matchup with cuse for that reason. Wisconsin isn't particularly strong on the offensive glass but I think ryan is a much better coach and he has 4 days to prepare for a zone and wisconsin has the discipline to beat the zone. I'm excited for the game I think if cuse wins it goes over, if wiscy wins it goes under

 

[lumpy19]

Want to win money betting sports? This is the kind of thinking you need to be doing

expected goals - hockey

 

[god_shamgod]

INDIANA +9 2U - Indiana has been one of the more impressive teams I've watched lately. they should be able to keep this game respectable.

XAVIER +6 1U - This is purely a bet against Baylor. They are what the French would call terrible.

 

[jdelsas]

Leans for tonight:

Pacers -6 (bought the hook)-- 1U

Wisc/Syr O120.5 -- 2U

Marquette -2 -- 1U

Cincy +7.5 -- 1U

Parlay:

Lou +5, Cincy +7.5 -- .5U to win 2.5U

 

[mquinnjr]

Want to win money betting sports? This is the kind of thinking you need to be doing

expected goals - hockey

Not smart enough to do that, nor have that kind of time. Naval Academy math heads are that smart. I'm all for tailing a good system, though. This weekend/next weekend time will be carved out to start to look into MLB systems for the regular season. Off the top of my head, fading the Phillies until at least Utley, Howard, and the rest of the walking wounded in the lineup come off of the DL sounds appropriate, since the books will juice the s### out of the Phils even with injuries out of the gate to recoup on the 102 game drubbing they took from the Phils last season.

 

[tjnc09]

The Sagarin ratings have Syracuse -1, which isn't far off at all from KP's Wisconsin -1. My model makes it Cuse -1. Teamrankings.com makes it Cuse -2.

This game is a perfect storm, imo. Syracuse massively overrated, Wisconsin massively underrated. Wisconsin improved a ####load during the year and people still remember their early season woes. Cuse plateaued mid-season, especially since Melo isn't there now, and people still remember them being undefeated for so long. And yes, they're deep, but he's by far their most important defender. And Bo Ryan >>>> JB.

Every square I know is all over Syracuse, calling the line a gift, ridiculous, etc. That makes me love Wisconsin all that much more.

I definitely think that it closes lower than 4. If you like Wisconsin, I'd get it now. If you like Cuse, I'd wait.

I can't wait for this one.

Really? How do you figure they're massively over-rated? All the publicity has been cuse lost melo, they're done, you're the first person I've "talked" to who thinks they're massively over-rated. I participated in several calcuttas, SU went far cheaper than every 1 and 2 and even some 3 seeds. The public opinion is that this is a flawed team without Melo.

See all I've heard is "they're so deep that losing Melo won't matter." "They're so long and athletic and fast, etc." Every radio station that I listen to, talking head that I hear, message board poster that I see, etc. is saying how the line is a joke and how Cuse is going to blow out Wisconsin. That is interesting to hear about the calcuttas, but I'd guess that a large reason for that also is that OSU is the #2 in their region, and many power ratings still have them as the #2 or 3 team in the country (rightfully so, imo).

The line itself also tells me that they're overrated, Wisconsin is underrated, or some combination of both.

Did you play a side in that game?

I played cuse -4 when it opened and just added more at CRIS who just moved to -3

This conversation is interesting. Most of what I've heard is along the lines of what lumpy is saying. To me, if anything, Syracuse is a bit underrated at this point due to the overreaction of Melo going out. I don't see anybody giving them a shot. I play in a big money draft (like a Calcutta) and every #2 seed but Duke went before them. I also think people are overreacting to the Marshall injury for UNC. I need Syracuse for my draft so I'll have a rooting interest in them. Don't think I'll wager on the game otherwise.

Cuse's biggest weakness IMO is allowing offensive boards...K state was a TERRIBLE matchup with cuse for that reason. Wisconsin isn't particularly strong on the offensive glass but I think ryan is a much better coach and he has 4 days to prepare for a zone and wisconsin has the discipline to beat the zone. I'm excited for the game I think if cuse wins it goes over, if wiscy wins it goes under

Even if Syracuse allows an OR, they are still long enough to make the second chance shot difficult. IMO, their matchup weakness is against a good perimeter shooting team. Yes, they allowed 22 OR to KSU, but their guards shot less than 30% from the field. They were also only 4-17 from 3 pt range. Wisconsin attempted 200 more 3 pointers than KSU this season. 35% of their total points came from 3 points - KSU only 23% - that is not KSU's strength.

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

Awesome on the daily log.On the 3rd question, yeah, if you obtain lines and betting %s from more than one site and they differ, how do you decide what is shown on Pregame?If site A shows:Wisconsin +4 54%Syracuse -4 46%And site B shows:Wisconsin +3.5 26%Syracuse +3.5 74%Is there a specific site you use that takes precedent? You don't see the raw numbers so there is no way to calculate a weighted average. Even if that were possible, it couldn't be done if the lines were varied on your source sites.

well most books never move on the bets anyway. that is another problem of solely using this data. download sportsoptions.com/jd. load the sharp books in front. if someone like greek or cris move, even if SIA or BetUS is weighted 80% one way, they have no choice but to move despite the fact it goes against the action they have. most of these places are not bookmakers, they move on air. reason why if u take 50 books they almost all have the same lines. impossible they all have the same action on each team. this is one reason agents who are geographic specific can run into trouble. if i guy is based in MI and everyone is betting MI on Saturday and his head count shop is a clone, the line does not move which can one side him.

Really appreciate the time and responses.What book does Pregame use for the opening and closing spreads and totals? CRIS?If Pregame receives feeds from more than one site (see you posted SIA already), the bet %s posted on Sportsbook Spy are simply an average of all those %s since you don't have the actual raw numbers?If you get 70/30 and 50/50 from two sites, SB spy will show 60/40?

Lumpy and I tried to tell you dozens of pages ago that books move on air and you refused to believe it.

With all due respect, the only reputation I've read about you was going tout and having an awful year and stalking gussy's life.

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

Want to win money betting sports? This is the kind of thinking you need to be doing

expected goals - hockey

yowza

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

took Wisconsin +4 earlier in the week. (sitting on a few prop/futures too. Kentucky>>>>wins. MSU>>>>>wins).

MSU -4.5

go big ten!

 

[lumpy19]

Even if Syracuse allows an OR, they are still long enough to make the second chance shot difficult. IMO, their matchup weakness is against a good perimeter shooting team. Yes, they allowed 22 OR to KSU, but their guards shot less than 30% from the field. They were also only 4-17 from 3 pt range. Wisconsin attempted 200 more 3 pointers than KSU this season. 35% of their total points came from 3 points - KSU only 23% - that is not KSU's strength.

One other cuse argument, because wisconsin is so proficient with the 3 the loss of fab melo has very little effect on this game. If wisconsin shoots 50% from behind the arc it's going to be a tough game for cuse to win. I just don't think wisconsin continues to shoot like that. The market disagrees with me and I know the market is smarter than me but I think cuse -3 is a good bet here. Even some increased vig 2.5's showing up now

 

[tjnc09]

Want to win money betting sports? This is the kind of thinking you need to be doing

expected goals - hockey

Really fascinating article. I probably understood more of his statistical methods than hockey terms lol

 

[tjnc09]

Hockey guys, article inspired me to mess around with my model today -

Says STL LAK under 5 is a very good play. Looks like a lot of vig at -130

What say thee?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Hockey guys, article inspired me to mess around with my model today - Says STL LAK under 5 is a very good play. Looks like a lot of vig at -130What say thee?

2 of the best defensive teams in the league. Both goalies will likely have a sub 2.0 GAA on the season. Probably looking at a 3-2 push at worst but this could easily be a 2-1 or 3-1 type of game.They played in early February and the score was 1-0. Kings offense has really improved since then, however. They've scored 18 goals in their last 4 games. Blues also playing back to back and coughed up 4 last night to Anaheim. They've lost 3 of 4 and will be playing their 6th road game in a row so probably won't be at their best.I think the Kings are playing a little better now and are more desperate plus they are at home and getting a tired St. Louis team. Probably something like a 3-1 or 3-2 Kings win. Not sure I like it enough to bet the under there but might jump on the Kings.

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

might have to be me some pucks tonight

 

[Nipsey]

Even if Syracuse allows an OR, they are still long enough to make the second chance shot difficult. IMO, their matchup weakness is against a good perimeter shooting team. Yes, they allowed 22 OR to KSU, but their guards shot less than 30% from the field. They were also only 4-17 from 3 pt range. Wisconsin attempted 200 more 3 pointers than KSU this season. 35% of their total points came from 3 points - KSU only 23% - that is not KSU's strength.

One other cuse argument, because wisconsin is so proficient with the 3 the loss of fab melo has very little effect on this game. If wisconsin shoots 50% from behind the arc it's going to be a tough game for cuse to win. I just don't think wisconsin continues to shoot like that. The market disagrees with me and I know the market is smarter than me but I think cuse -3 is a good bet here. Even some increased vig 2.5's showing up now

The pundits on TV won't stop talking about the loss of Melo. As someone who's watched every minute of every Cuse game this season I can say that Cuse is as good without him. Rakeem Christmas, imo, is a better fit for this team than Melo. Christmas is a top 15 recruit, a natural center. Boeheim was trying to get him some PT at forward but he doesn't fit on the wing and it was obvious. They moved him into backing up Melo at C around the BE tournament and the guy has thrived ever since. Yes, Melo did some things better than Christmas can at this stage, but Christmas is as good defensively and is a better rebounder. Also, Christmas already knows his role offensively (set screens, stay near the basket and dunk the thing when you get it in close). Melo was drawing the ire of his coaches/teammates as late as that UConn game during the BE tournament, throwing up dumb shots from deep and throwing balls away trying to make long outlet passes when we didn't need it.That said, we think tonight's game is a coinflip. If we lose it won't be because Melo isn't there, it'll be because we can't make shots or drive it to the hole. I can guarantee we start slow because Boeheim starts every game with the most vanilla zone D we can play as to entice opponents to chuck it from deep. Then he snaps his fingers and those looks become infinitely more difficult as the zone expands and becomes more active. We lost to Cinci in the BE tourney because they started like 9 of 10 from 3 before Boeheim finally decided to get after it defensively. By then the hole was too deep and we made some fatal errors down the stretch.

 

[Angry Beavers]

I am on Cuse' for starters. I also lean with Ohio State and FLA, but have not played those yet.

GLTA

AB

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Christmas is as good defensively and is a better rebounder.

Not by any of the metrics.

 

[tjnc09]

Even if Syracuse allows an OR, they are still long enough to make the second chance shot difficult. IMO, their matchup weakness is against a good perimeter shooting team. Yes, they allowed 22 OR to KSU, but their guards shot less than 30% from the field. They were also only 4-17 from 3 pt range. Wisconsin attempted 200 more 3 pointers than KSU this season. 35% of their total points came from 3 points - KSU only 23% - that is not KSU's strength.

One other cuse argument, because wisconsin is so proficient with the 3 the loss of fab melo has very little effect on this game. If wisconsin shoots 50% from behind the arc it's going to be a tough game for cuse to win. I just don't think wisconsin continues to shoot like that. The market disagrees with me and I know the market is smarter than me but I think cuse -3 is a good bet here. Even some increased vig 2.5's showing up now

I agree completely. Have you ever seen Cuse play man? I honestly can't recall and I know you follow them. If Wisconsin did get hot from the perimeter early and Cuse switched out of the zone, I think they would easily shut them down with their athleticism.

 

[loser]

I'm sure I'm alone on this (good thing for you guys), but I'll be fading the big east tonight.

Wisky +3.5

OSU -7.5

Florida +2.5

MSU -5

GL

 

[Dexter Manley]

Even if Syracuse allows an OR, they are still long enough to make the second chance shot difficult. IMO, their matchup weakness is against a good perimeter shooting team. Yes, they allowed 22 OR to KSU, but their guards shot less than 30% from the field. They were also only 4-17 from 3 pt range. Wisconsin attempted 200 more 3 pointers than KSU this season. 35% of their total points came from 3 points - KSU only 23% - that is not KSU's strength.

One other cuse argument, because wisconsin is so proficient with the 3 the loss of fab melo has very little effect on this game. If wisconsin shoots 50% from behind the arc it's going to be a tough game for cuse to win. I just don't think wisconsin continues to shoot like that. The market disagrees with me and I know the market is smarter than me but I think cuse -3 is a good bet here. Even some increased vig 2.5's showing up now

Good point. Personally, I think the biggest key to the game, which no one here is talking about, is that about 26% of Cuse's points this season have been generated off of turnovers. Wisky obviously takes care of the ball as well as any other team in the country. I think the extra days to prepare certainly help Wisky wrt this. If Wisky takes care of the ball as well as they usually do, then Cuse better hope they're cold from 3 point land where often those long defensive rebounds have the same result as turnovers.

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

I'm sure I'm alone on this (good thing for you guys), but I'll be fading the big east tonight. Wisky +3.5 OSU -7.5 Florida +2.5 MSU -5GL

I am with you, except for Florida.

 

[tjnc09]

Where is the semi, Nipsey????

 

[Nipsey]

Christmas is as good defensively and is a better rebounder.

Not by any of the metrics.

Sure is. Melo excelled at taking charges, something Christmas doesn't have yet but without a doubt Christmas is a better rebounder.

 

[Dexter Manley]

Even if Syracuse allows an OR, they are still long enough to make the second chance shot difficult. IMO, their matchup weakness is against a good perimeter shooting team. Yes, they allowed 22 OR to KSU, but their guards shot less than 30% from the field. They were also only 4-17 from 3 pt range. Wisconsin attempted 200 more 3 pointers than KSU this season. 35% of their total points came from 3 points - KSU only 23% - that is not KSU's strength.

One other cuse argument, because wisconsin is so proficient with the 3 the loss of fab melo has very little effect on this game. If wisconsin shoots 50% from behind the arc it's going to be a tough game for cuse to win. I just don't think wisconsin continues to shoot like that. The market disagrees with me and I know the market is smarter than me but I think cuse -3 is a good bet here. Even some increased vig 2.5's showing up now

I agree completely. Have you ever seen Cuse play man? I honestly can't recall and I know you follow them. If Wisconsin did get hot from the perimeter early and Cuse switched out of the zone, I think they would easily shut them down with their athleticism.

It might disrupt them, but not for the reason you stated. I didn't watch the game, but I'm assuming Carolina, who's more athletic than the Cuse, played man on Wisky when they met early in the year and Wisky gave them all they could handle. If Cuse did bust out a man to man defense at some point during the game I could see that causing Wisky some problems at least in the short term, as I'm sure they would be pretty surprised and would have to adjust.

 

[Nipsey]

Where is the semi, Nipsey????

~~~~~~▄▐▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▌~~~▄▄██▌▌▄▄▄▌ .▌ KANSAS -8, NIPSEY'S 5STAR SWEET16 PLAY███████▌.▌▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▌▀(O)▀▀▀▀▀▀▀(O)(O)▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀(@)(@)▀▀▘

 

[tjnc09]

THERE IT IS!!!

 

[Monkeyface Prickleback]

 

[loser]

Where is the semi, Nipsey????

~~~~~~▄▐▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▌~~~▄▄██▌▌▄▄▄▌ .▌ KANSAS -8, NIPSEY'S 5STAR SWEET16 PLAY███████▌.▌▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▌▀(O)▀▀▀▀▀▀▀(O)(O)▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀(@)(@)▀▀▘

This gave me a semi

 

[Nipsey]

Even if Syracuse allows an OR, they are still long enough to make the second chance shot difficult. IMO, their matchup weakness is against a good perimeter shooting team. Yes, they allowed 22 OR to KSU, but their guards shot less than 30% from the field. They were also only 4-17 from 3 pt range. Wisconsin attempted 200 more 3 pointers than KSU this season. 35% of their total points came from 3 points - KSU only 23% - that is not KSU's strength.

One other cuse argument, because wisconsin is so proficient with the 3 the loss of fab melo has very little effect on this game. If wisconsin shoots 50% from behind the arc it's going to be a tough game for cuse to win. I just don't think wisconsin continues to shoot like that. The market disagrees with me and I know the market is smarter than me but I think cuse -3 is a good bet here. Even some increased vig 2.5's showing up now

I agree completely. Have you ever seen Cuse play man? I honestly can't recall and I know you follow them. If Wisconsin did get hot from the perimeter early and Cuse switched out of the zone, I think they would easily shut them down with their athleticism.

Cuse never plays man and will never switch out of the zone. If Wisconsin gets hot from 3 Boeheim will extend the zone earlier. Our 3 pt fg defense is something like 30% and that's with Boeheim hoping teams make a few early.

 

[Man In The Box]

Where is the semi, Nipsey????

~~~~~~▄▐▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▌~~~▄▄██▌▌▄▄▄▌ .▌ KANSAS -8, NIPSEY'S 5STAR SWEET16 PLAY███████▌.▌▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▌▀(O)▀▀▀▀▀▀▀(O)(O)▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀(@)(@)▀▀▘

This gave me a semi

Well done

 

[tjnc09]

Even if Syracuse allows an OR, they are still long enough to make the second chance shot difficult. IMO, their matchup weakness is against a good perimeter shooting team. Yes, they allowed 22 OR to KSU, but their guards shot less than 30% from the field. They were also only 4-17 from 3 pt range. Wisconsin attempted 200 more 3 pointers than KSU this season. 35% of their total points came from 3 points - KSU only 23% - that is not KSU's strength.

One other cuse argument, because wisconsin is so proficient with the 3 the loss of fab melo has very little effect on this game. If wisconsin shoots 50% from behind the arc it's going to be a tough game for cuse to win. I just don't think wisconsin continues to shoot like that. The market disagrees with me and I know the market is smarter than me but I think cuse -3 is a good bet here. Even some increased vig 2.5's showing up now

I agree completely. Have you ever seen Cuse play man? I honestly can't recall and I know you follow them. If Wisconsin did get hot from the perimeter early and Cuse switched out of the zone, I think they would easily shut them down with their athleticism.

It might disrupt them, but not for the reason you stated. I didn't watch the game, but I'm assuming Carolina, who's more athletic than the Cuse, played man on Wisky when they met early in the year and Wisky gave them all they could handle. If Cuse did bust out a man to man defense at some point during the game I could see that causing Wisky some problems at least in the short term, as I'm sure they would be pretty surprised and would have to adjust.

Wisconsin shot 8-28 from the perimeter, got out rebounded 42-29, and only shot 6 free throws. They did win the turnover battle, but hard to say how many of those were unforced. The one highlight was a horrible UNC pass that led to a Wisc layup.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Christmas is as good defensively and is a better rebounder.

Not by any of the metrics.

Sure is. Melo excelled at taking charges, something Christmas doesn't have yet but without a doubt Christmas is a better rebounder.

Melo, by every metric that I've seen, is a better offensive and defensive rebounder, better at taking charges, finishes more defensive possessions, and fouls at a much lower rate. Since the center in that zone has the highest usage rate of any defender, all of those things are magnified.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Good point. Personally, I think the biggest key to the game, which no one here is talking about, is that about 26% of Cuse's points this season have been generated off of turnovers. Wisky obviously takes care of the ball as well as any other team in the country. I think the extra days to prepare certainly help Wisky wrt this. If Wisky takes care of the ball as well as they usually do, then Cuse better hope they're cold from 3 point land where often those long defensive rebounds have the same result as turnovers.

Cuse generates a ton of offense off of turnovers that lead to quick breaks since they play zone (guards in front and ready to run, wings ready to fill on the sides), and offensive rebounds. Wisconsin does a very good job of limiting both of those things.Cuse struggles to score in the halfcourt, which is exactly what they're going to have to do tonight.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Even if Syracuse allows an OR, they are still long enough to make the second chance shot difficult. IMO, their matchup weakness is against a good perimeter shooting team. Yes, they allowed 22 OR to KSU, but their guards shot less than 30% from the field. They were also only 4-17 from 3 pt range. Wisconsin attempted 200 more 3 pointers than KSU this season. 35% of their total points came from 3 points - KSU only 23% - that is not KSU's strength.

One other cuse argument, because wisconsin is so proficient with the 3 the loss of fab melo has very little effect on this game. If wisconsin shoots 50% from behind the arc it's going to be a tough game for cuse to win. I just don't think wisconsin continues to shoot like that. The market disagrees with me and I know the market is smarter than me but I think cuse -3 is a good bet here. Even some increased vig 2.5's showing up now

Very good thought wrt to Melo and the 3pt reliance of Wisconsin.If either team shoots 50% and the other doesn't approach that, then that team wins.

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

beisbol win totals, talk to me.

fade the phils? whatelse?

 

[modogg]

beisbol win totals, talk to me. fade the phils? whatelse?

I wouldn't go too heavy fading the Phils. I certainly think they have a tough situation with the injuries to their infield, but you still have Hamels, Lee, and Halladay who can give up 1 run a game. I think Papelbon strengthens the bullpen, and i think some of the younger guys will be able to keep the Phils alive. They certainly aren't a great bet to win everything, but fading them isn't so safe either. I am thinking of trying the same approach i have the last 2 years (which by the way utterly failed), and that is let the Phils start slow like they usually do, and take them with much better odds later in the year, usually right after the all star break

 

[Doctor Detroit]

beisbol win totals, talk to me. fade the phils? whatelse?

Pirates over

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

any SOG props people like tonight?

I haven't even looked at the totals yet but Preds under and Dallas over might be promising.

 

[mquinnjr]

beisbol win totals, talk to me. fade the phils? whatelse?

I wouldn't go too heavy fading the Phils. I certainly think they have a tough situation with the injuries to their infield, but you still have Hamels, Lee, and Halladay who can give up 1 run a game. I think Papelbon strengthens the bullpen, and i think some of the younger guys will be able to keep the Phils alive. They certainly aren't a great bet to win everything, but fading them isn't so safe either. I am thinking of trying the same approach i have the last 2 years (which by the way utterly failed), and that is let the Phils start slow like they usually do, and take them with much better odds later in the year, usually right after the all star break

I like this. Think I'll fade until the starting infield is back in the lineup (since I think the juice will still be heavy, we'll see once the lines start coming out), and side with after the ASB. Stay away in between.

 

[hooter311]

Badgers ML +150

 

[mquinnjr]

beisbol win totals, talk to me. fade the phils? whatelse?

Pirates over

Like the D'Backs over 86.5 @ -105.

 

[Nipsey]

Christmas is as good defensively and is a better rebounder.

Not by any of the metrics.

Sure is. Melo excelled at taking charges, something Christmas doesn't have yet but without a doubt Christmas is a better rebounder.

Melo, by every metric that I've seen, is a better offensive and defensive rebounder, better at taking charges, finishes more defensive possessions, and fouls at a much lower rate. Since the center in that zone has the highest usage rate of any defender, all of those things are magnified.

Christmas has only played center for the last 4 games and only played 10 minutes total in the BE tournament (2 of those games). The numbers are flawed because they're based on Christmas' token minutes at forward for the season. He was never a forward, he's a natural center. I'm not saying Christmas is a better rebounder because of "metrics", i'm saying he's better because I see it with my own eyes. He's in better position, goes up high for the ball and snatches it down into his body. Melo was always out of position and relied on his massive height advantage to get what boards he could. Melo only averages something like 3.2 d boards per game! Gonna be tough for Rakeem to get up/stay up to speed in this kind of environment but if we lose, no Melo won't be the reason why. Christmas played out of his mind in the 2nd half of the KState, better than Fab at any point in the season. Small sample size, I know, but encouraging after hearing over and over we have no shot because we'll be hurting in the middle without Fab.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Over 5.5 (-115) in Tampa/Edmonton looks great to me.

Roloson in net for Tampa. When he starts, he allows 4 goals per game on average. He's allowed 3 goals or more in ALL of his last 15 starts.

Khabibulin in net for Edmonton. Started out great but has a 3.39 GAA since the All Star break. Has allowed 3 goals or more in 14 of his last 21 starts. Also allowed 3 goals or more in 8 of his last 10 road starts.

Tampa ranks 10th in goals scored and Edmonton ranks 15th so there's enough offensive talent to take advantage of these old goalies who are both well past their primes.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Christmas is as good defensively and is a better rebounder.

Not by any of the metrics.

Sure is. Melo excelled at taking charges, something Christmas doesn't have yet but without a doubt Christmas is a better rebounder.

Melo, by every metric that I've seen, is a better offensive and defensive rebounder, better at taking charges, finishes more defensive possessions, and fouls at a much lower rate. Since the center in that zone has the highest usage rate of any defender, all of those things are magnified.

Christmas has only played center for the last 4 games and only played 10 minutes total in the BE tournament (2 of those games). The numbers are flawed because they're based on Christmas' token minutes at forward for the season. He was never a forward, he's a natural center. I'm not saying Christmas is a better rebounder because of "metrics", i'm saying he's better because I see it with my own eyes. He's in better position, goes up high for the ball and snatches it down into his body. Melo was always out of position and relied on his massive height advantage to get what boards he could. Melo only averages something like 3.2 d boards per game! Gonna be tough for Rakeem to get up/stay up to speed in this kind of environment but if we lose, no Melo won't be the reason why. Christmas played out of his mind in the 2nd half of the KState, better than Fab at any point in the season. Small sample size, I know, but encouraging after hearing over and over we have no shot because we'll be hurting in the middle without Fab.

I just re-checked. You're right, Christmas has a higher DReb% than Melo. Melo is better in just about every category, but I looked at the wrong thing for Dreb. Sorry, and thanks for your thoughts.

 

[Nipsey]

Christmas is as good defensively and is a better rebounder.

Not by any of the metrics.

Sure is. Melo excelled at taking charges, something Christmas doesn't have yet but without a doubt Christmas is a better rebounder.

Melo, by every metric that I've seen, is a better offensive and defensive rebounder, better at taking charges, finishes more defensive possessions, and fouls at a much lower rate. Since the center in that zone has the highest usage rate of any defender, all of those things are magnified.

Christmas has only played center for the last 4 games and only played 10 minutes total in the BE tournament (2 of those games). The numbers are flawed because they're based on Christmas' token minutes at forward for the season. He was never a forward, he's a natural center. I'm not saying Christmas is a better rebounder because of "metrics", i'm saying he's better because I see it with my own eyes. He's in better position, goes up high for the ball and snatches it down into his body. Melo was always out of position and relied on his massive height advantage to get what boards he could. Melo only averages something like 3.2 d boards per game! Gonna be tough for Rakeem to get up/stay up to speed in this kind of environment but if we lose, no Melo won't be the reason why. Christmas played out of his mind in the 2nd half of the KState, better than Fab at any point in the season. Small sample size, I know, but encouraging after hearing over and over we have no shot because we'll be hurting in the middle without Fab.

I just re-checked. You're right, Christmas has a higher DReb% than Melo. Melo is better in just about every category, but I looked at the wrong thing for Dreb. Sorry, and thanks for your thoughts.

No worries. Love the banter. Keep in mind all of Rakeem's numbers are for a freshman with very limited playing time and playing out of position. Melo was putting up his numbers at times against inferior opponents with no size. Not to say Melo didn't play well in conference but the metrics are moot in comparing Melo to Christmas. If Christmas and Melo magically, at the same time, played equal minutes at the center position, Christmas would be statistically dominant in every defensive category (even in blocks) except taking charges. Offensively they'd be close in everything except FT%. People became enamored with Melo at the start of the season because of his obvious weight loss and improvement while Christmas was non-existent getting a token start (usually of 2-3 minutes) at forward and riding pine for the rest of the game. Nobody knew (or even cared) if Christmas was any good yet because he never had a chance to play.

 

[modogg]

any SOG props people like tonight?I haven't even looked at the totals yet but Preds under and Dallas might be promising.

it burned me pretty good yesterday, but i think i like STL under tonight. haven't had a chance to look too much yet though

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

http://www.covers.com/pageloader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nhl/matchups/g2_summary_10.html

Vancouver has given up 37, 34, 36, 33, 35, and 32 shots in their last 6 games. They are playing on the road in their 2nd of back to back after playing an emotional game against perhaps their biggest rival in Chicago last night and I assume they will be without Daniel Sedin.

Dallas should be all over them.

 

[optionmaven]

I'm sure I'm alone on this (good thing for you guys), but I'll be fading the big east tonight. Wisky +3.5 OSU -7.5 Florida +2.5 MSU -5GL

Wow, now I feel f'ed. I'm on all of these but played them all ML in Round Robins. Extra heavy on the MSU/OSU.