FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (6 Viewers)

[Raider Nation]

Been thinking about this one all week. FSU might be a top 5 team, but I want them to prove it against a really fast Clemson team.Clemson +15

Good call here. This was nothing more than creating a point spread based on a preseason ranking and home field.

 

[The Ref]

Been thinking about this one all week. FSU might be a top 5 team, but I want them to prove it against a really fast Clemson team.Clemson +15

Good call here. This was nothing more than creating a point spread based on a preseason ranking and home field.

Fair. But they were a big dark horse team for alot of touts. Plus I couldn't get the orange bowl out of my head.Because I have done so well with sides today (and bailed out by a great prop night) I added another unit to nevada -7. Because, you know, teams travel so well when they play in Hawaii.

 

[modogg]

Been thinking about this one all week. FSU might be a top 5 team, but I want them to prove it against a really fast Clemson team.Clemson +15

Good call here. This was nothing more than creating a point spread based on a preseason ranking and home field.

Fair. But they were a big dark horse team for alot of touts. Plus I couldn't get the orange bowl out of my head.Because I have done so well with sides today (and bailed out by a great prop night) I added another unit to nevada -7. Because, you know, teams travel so well when they play in Hawaii.

In. I need a good late night bet tonight.

 

[Tiger Fan]

O41 1st half oregon

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Been thinking about this one all week. FSU might be a top 5 team, but I want them to prove it against a really fast Clemson team.Clemson +15

Good call here. This was nothing more than creating a point spread based on a preseason ranking and home field.

Fair. But they were a big dark horse team for alot of touts.

Which touts?

 

[Raider Nation]

Good start in Oregon. Ducks go for a 4th down in their own territory and get stuffed. Cats miss a 4-foot FG.

 

[John Bender]

LHUCKSIAN PERFORMACE Looking like 0-7 with the 4PM and 7PM starts

Same here. At least I don't look like a gayer version of Lance Bass

 

[Raider Nation]

LAS VEGAS SHARPS REPORT, WEEK 3

ST. LOUIS AT CHICAGO:

The Bears opened at -8, and have come down to -7.5. This is a tricky spot for Sportsbooks. Were the line to stay here, then Chicago will be a logical choice in “basic strategy” two-team teasers that involve any move across both the 3 and the 7. Chicago could be moved down to -1.5. Yet, if Sportsbooks drop the line to the key number of -7, that could bring in a lot of favorite money on a team the public likes to bet. Rock and a hard place in terms of exposure. Will Sportsbooks want to root for St. Louis +1.5 in teasers, or St. Louis +7 on a pure team side? Sharps felt that eight was a touch high given Chicago’s poor play last week. Sharps will be playing the Bears in teasers though, if that line sticks at -7.5. So Rams plus the number and Chicago in teasers minus the number. Note that I won’t mention any Over/Unders that haven’t shown meaningful movement. Nothing to report on the total here.

TAMPA BAY AT DALLAS:

Dallas opened at -7, and got support at the key number from Sharps in a way that moved the number generally to -7.5. We have seen an eight as we go to press. Tampa Bay is in a tough schedule spot playing its second straight road game, and Dallas is in a bounce-back spot after a bad loss. Systems guys liked Dallas at value there (which -7 represented). The public may hit the Cowboys too, in what’s seen as a “must win” situation for them. Sportsbooks may end up taking the game to -9 to stay out of the teaser window. Depends on what the public does over the weekend. Sharps like Dallas at -7, and will play them in teasers if they fall in the basic strategy window, but would probably take the Bucs at +9 or even +8.5, in concert with Cowboys teasers. Just like the Chicago -Rams game, Sharps play VALUE rather than teams!

SAN FRANCISCO AT MINNESOTA:

We have another game dancing around the 7. This time it’s just underneath. San Francisco opened at -6, but has been bet up to -6.5 based on their strong early showing. Some of this was likely position-taking for middles on the assumption that the public would keep driving the 49ers bandwagon. Sharps wanted SF at -6 just in case the line went to -7 or -7.5 for a strong middle option. Oddsmakers know this and are trying to figure out how to best manage their exposure. Both oddsmakers and Sharps like rooting for NFL home underdogs. They’ll see what premium the public will pay to back the Niners.

DETROIT AT TENNESSEE:

Our first visit with the number 3 sees Detroit get very strong support at -3 on the road here with the line now settling everywhere at -3.5 as we go to press. It takes a lot of money to move off a three. Sharps haven’t at all been impressed with Tennessee so far. The Lions are laying points in a second road spot, with a short week off a Sunday Night game… yet they STILL got bet! That tells you all you need to know about Sharps analysis of Tennessee.

CINCINNATI AT WASHINGTON:

Big move here on the total, with an opener of 46.5 moving up to 49. That’s based on a combination of respect for what Washington’s done offensively with Robert Griffin III, and respect for Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton against what might be a soft Washington defense (high scoring games vs. New Orleans and St. Louis) and what looks to be no threat of bad weather on Sunday at the moment. This move really jumps out because none of the prior games were showing much of anything on Over/Unders. The game itself opened Washington -3.5, with Sharp money coming in on the underdog Bengals because Dalton and Company give you backdoor potential even if they fall behind. We saw that last season. Sharps like the dog and Over… and we may end up seeing a tug of war right on the three with the public backing RGIII at -3, and Sharp money on Cincinnati at +3.5. Sportsbooks may have to sweat the game landing exactly on three which would be a push, and a loss from their perspective.

NY JETS AT MIAMI:

Ryan Tannehill and the Fins impressed some people last week, as Miami earned Sharp support early at +3 to bring the line down to a steady +2.5. It’s telling that the Jets weren’t bet back up to -3 when the line moved off the critical number. Sharps like Miami and the field goal-- many won on this field with Miami last week over Oakland. The Wise Guys hated the Jets in the season opener vs. Buffalo, and took a bad loss. The Jets looked so sluggish last week in Pittsburgh that the Sharps now have no trouble going against them here.

KANSAS CITY AT NEW ORLEANS:

Our only double digit line of the week, at least on the opener. New Orleans opened at -10, but was bet down to -9 from early Sharp support for Kansas City. How can Sharps bet on a Chiefs team that’s been beaten badly twice? The same thing happened last year. Kansas City started poorly but ultimately made a run at the playoffs, and Sharps hate what they’re seeing this year from the New Orleans defense. There’s always garbage time potential against the Saints when they lay a high number. Sharps were happy to take the full ten here. Also, there’s still an old school faction that will take any double digit dog on principle.

BUFFALO AT CLEVELAND:

Back to three’s, as Buffalo opened -2.5 and was bet up to -3 as a road favorite. Brandon Weeden played better last week for the Browns, but still isn’t seen as a quarterback you can trust with your money. A small line is basically “pick the winner,” and most veterans are going to get the nod over Weeden. Note that Sharps weren’t passionate enough about Buffalo to drive the line above a field goal.

JACKSONVILLE AT INDIANAPOLIS:

Very little interest in this game so far. Sharps aren’t fond of Blaine Gabbert of the Jags, but most aren’t yet ready to lay points with a rookie quarterback either, even if Andrew Luck did lead the Colts to victory last week vs. Minnesota. They almost blew a big lead! The Colts opened at 3.5 and are currently sitting on the 3. The public may not touch this low profile game either, setting up what will probably be the least bet game of the day.

PHILADELPHIA AT ARIZONA:

We have a token move here on the home underdog Arizona. Sharps thought +4 was a bit too high. Sportsbooks aren’t likely to go down to a three because the public would jump all over the Eagles at that low price (as would some of the Sharps who haven’t given up on Michael Vick yet). We wouldn’t be surprised if the public lays the 3.5 on game day. The Eagles are still getting some media run because they beat Baltimore last week (even though they didn’t cover), but Sharp money is on the Cardinals here.

ATLANTA AT SAN DIEGO:

Interesting game here between 2-0 teams. Sharps generally see Atlanta as the better team. But, that better team is in a horrible schedule spot. The Falcons are in a short preparation week off a Monday Night game… AND are flying cross country to play their second road game against an AFC West team in three weeks. Given a “normal” spot on the schedule, this line would have been between pick and two. SD-3 is the line here. Sharps will monitor public sentiment before getting involved, and may just pass the game altogether. Sharps respect price, and oddsmakers aren’t giving them anything here given the situation.

HOUSTON AT DENVER:

Houston got respect off the Denver Monday Night loss in the markets, as an opener of pick-em is now up to -2 for the Texans. Last year many Sharps saw Houston as a true AFC Championship threat before injuries took away that possibility. The team is healthy now, and has a defense that can disrupt a Denver offense that’s still getting its rhythm down. You saw how turnovers hurt the Broncos this past Monday Night. We’re not talking about many totals this week. We’ve seen Under sentiment here, with an opener of 47.5 dropping to 45.5 or 46.

PITTSBURGH AT OAKLAND:

The Steelers opened at -4.5, but are down to -4 as we go to press. Like Atlanta, Pittsburgh is playing its second road game in three weeks against an AFC East team. Unlike Atlanta however, Pittsburgh is a road favorite. Sharps have NOT been impressed with Oakland so far, but those who bet early recognized the potency of this schedule spot for the home dog. The total has moved up from 43 to 45 on the assumption that Pittsburgh won’t be at a peak defensively with so much jet lag.

NEW ENGLAND AT BALTIMORE:

Great Sunday Night matchup on NBC, revisiting the AFC Championship game last year that New England was fortunate to win. We’re seeing a very solid three so far… with a chance that the line never moves and sportsbooks get a ton of action. You don’t often see the Patriots getting points. They looked awful last week vs. Arizona, and may no longer be the true class of this conference. We’re hearing split sentiment from Sharps. Some believe the Ravens will make a statement. Others believe you should never give Tom Brady a field goal. Could be a great one!

GREEN BAY AT SEATTLE:

Sharps hit the Monday Night home underdog hard early at +4.5. We’re now seeing what sets up to be a tug-of-war game between the three and the three-and-a-half. The public will love Green Bay at -3. Sharps, who got what they wanted out of Seattle last week, will love anything higher than a field goal. This should be another heavy action game for sportsbooks… and they’ll be hoping the game doesn’t land exactly on the three.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Michael Turner (Falcons) Total Rushing Yards - Must Play

Under 57.5 (-120)

Matt Ryan (Falcons) Total Completions - Must Play

Over 22.5 (-115)

 

[swirvenirvin]

All I can say is thank God for Gooroo. I might break even even though I'm going to go 2-143 on sides.

Am I missing him post his picks? Saw someone else said he had a good night the other day also

Gotta PM him to inquire. There are no money trees. (Except betting against whatever HUCKS likes)

Thanks... I dont know him, so not sure what I would be asking.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

The old RN jinx in play tonight?

 

[Raider Nation]

All I can say is thank God for Gooroo. I might break even even though I'm going to go 2-143 on sides.

Am I missing him post his picks? Saw someone else said he had a good night the other day also

Gotta PM him to inquire. There are no money trees. (Except betting against whatever HUCKS likes)

Thanks... I dont know him, so not sure what I would be asking.

"Hi, I'm swirvenirvin. What does it take to enter the Kingdom of Winners?"

 

[The Ref]

Been thinking about this one all week. FSU might be a top 5 team, but I want them to prove it against a really fast Clemson team.Clemson +15

Good call here. This was nothing more than creating a point spread based on a preseason ranking and home field.

Fair. But they were a big dark horse team for alot of touts.

Which touts?

Phil Steele for starters. Had them as NC in his mag.

 

[Raider Nation]

The old RN jinx in play tonight?

We're toast.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Been thinking about this one all week. FSU might be a top 5 team, but I want them to prove it against a really fast Clemson team.Clemson +15

Good call here. This was nothing more than creating a point spread based on a preseason ranking and home field.

Fair. But they were a big dark horse team for alot of touts.

Which touts?

Phil Steele for starters. Had them as NC in his mag.

Oh I thought you meant in this game as a 15 point dog. I think RN jinxed me anyway, Phil Steele and me were wrong.

 

[Raider Nation]

I think RN jinxed me anyway, Phil Steele and me were wrong.

Holy crap. I had turned that game off. Did Clemson throw three straight pick-6's or something?P.S. When I wrote "we're toast" earlier, I thought you were referring to this AZ/Oregon over.

 

[ChainsawU]

Well. I lost every single bet today.

Chasing it on Michigan

give the UFC card a shot. I am one bad stoppage from being 3-0 so far, but my biggest bet just cashed. I got for the rest of teh night:Vinny Malgahales +155

TJ Grant (shop for this line if you can. i got him at +155, but i see he is +105 now at RB)

Benoist -225 (smaller play)

Swanson +220

Bisping -210

Jones/Belfort under 1.5 rounds (ev)

The People's Champion

 

[The Ref]

I dont want to jinx it, but there is a particular team that doesnt want me to go 0-7. It wants to salvage 1-6 BAD.

 

[modogg]

Well. I lost every single bet today.

Chasing it on Michigan

give the UFC card a shot. I am one bad stoppage from being 3-0 so far, but my biggest bet just cashed. I got for the rest of teh night:Vinny Malgahales +155

TJ Grant (shop for this line if you can. i got him at +155, but i see he is +105 now at RB)

Benoist -225 (smaller play)

Swanson +220

Bisping -210

Jones/Belfort under 1.5 rounds (ev)

The People's Champion

Thank you, thank you. Hoping this is the start of a nice run with the MMA picks. Very thankful there is another card next weekend. I'm ready to start giving lessons to GooRoo on how this whole gambling thing is done ...... (I definitely overdue it on the emoticons at times. What can i say, i am a little bit giddy running the table here).

 

[Raider Nation]

(I definitely overdue it on the emoticons at times. What can i say, i am a little bit giddy running the table here).

This guy tends to be your favorite ..... Don't feel bad though. Every-other post by GPJ contains ------>

 

[The Ref]

I think RN jinxed me anyway, Phil Steele and me were wrong.

Holy crap. I had turned that game off. Did Clemson throw three straight pick-6's or something?P.S. When I wrote "we're toast" earlier, I thought you were referring to this AZ/Oregon over.

Oh yeah - the over is toast. No way I would ever bet the under.Shark bets of the night were the Fla/Clem Over and the Nev/Haw over.

 

[Raider Nation]

Adding this for RN

Oregon/AZ over 77

LOL - the last thing I did before I went to bed last night was put a bet down on this. This might be over 60 in the first half.

Up to 79. BTW, are we convinced that Arizona will put up their fair share?

It's not the 4 diamond play of the week or anything, but I like it. Zona can put up ponts by the bunch no problem. The Ducks gave up 30ish to Fresno and Ark St. The Ducks lighting up 50 on the board isn't something I'm worried about.Lets put it another way. if the total was 85 would you bet the under?

No, no. I just can't shake the feeling of some costly Wildcat turnovers as they try to keep pace.55-21 isn't unreasonable, and that falls short.

RichRod at UM to drop a ton of points on UMASS, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois....as soon at they played OSU, MSU, Wiscy they would turle and score 0-10.I have no doubt Oregon will drop 55...I am concerned the exact way RN is...will Arizona be able to keep pace.

I swear we type just for the sake of typing sometimes. <_<

 

[cosjobs]

thanks modog. got in on five of your picks (4 dogs) and went 5-0

 

[modogg]

(I definitely overdue it on the emoticons at times. What can i say, i am a little bit giddy running the table here).

This guy tends to be your favorite ..... Don't feel bad though. Every-other post by GPJ contains ------>

I think it adds some "je ne se qua" to the posts and thread overall. And on a side note, F Clemson, and F live betting on college football

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Please save my day with a TD Clemson. TIA.

 

[modogg]

thanks modog. got in on five of your picks (4 dogs) and went 5-0

Hope to keep it going with the UFC and Strikeforce having a bunch of events coming up

 

[gussy]

Biggest line values according to the power rankings I use:1-Penn St. -7 1/2 (9 point differential) -WIN2-San Jose St. +3 1/2 (7 1/2 pts.) -WIN3-Kansas St. +14 (6 1/2) -WIN4-Kent St. +4 (5 1/2) -WIN5-W. Michigan +1 1/2 (5) -WIN5-Utah +7 (5) -LOSS7-S. Carolina -10 (4 1/2) -WIN7-USC -16 (4 1/2) -WIN9-UAB +37 (4) -WIN9-Marshall -3 (4) -PUSH11-Auburn +21 (3 1/2) -WIN12-La. Monroe +7 1/2 (3) -WIN12-W. Virginia -27 (3) -LOSS12-Kentucky +24 (3) -LOSS12-Georgia -16 (3) -WIN12-Minnesota -1 (3) -WINFWIW.I've already locked in San Jose St. I may lock in a few more where I'm worried about the line moving yet tonight.

This is very interesting. 12-3-1 just by looking for the biggest spread differentials from the power rankings I use. This is not my bet card, although I had a very good weekend, but this warrants further observation.

 

[Raider Nation]

NIIIIIIIIICE backdoor for the good doctor!

 

[gussy]

Biggest line values according to the power rankings I use:1-Penn St. -7 1/2 (9 point differential) -WIN2-San Jose St. +3 1/2 (7 1/2 pts.) -WIN3-Kansas St. +14 (6 1/2) -WIN4-Kent St. +4 (5 1/2) -WIN5-W. Michigan +1 1/2 (5) -WIN5-Utah +7 (5) -LOSS7-S. Carolina -10 (4 1/2) -WIN7-USC -16 (4 1/2) -WIN9-UAB +37 (4) -WIN9-Marshall -3 (4) -PUSH11-Auburn +21 (3 1/2) -WIN12-La. Monroe +7 1/2 (3) -WIN12-W. Virginia -27 (3) -LOSS12-Kentucky +24 (3) -LOSS12-Georgia -16 (3) -WIN12-Minnesota -1 (3) -WINFWIW.I've already locked in San Jose St. I may lock in a few more where I'm worried about the line moving yet tonight.

This is very interesting. 12-3-1 just by looking for the biggest spread differentials from the power rankings I use. This is not my bet card, although I had a very good weekend, but this warrants further observation.

8-1-1 if you just played the top 10 plays.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

NIIIIIIIIICE backdoor for the good doctor!

 

[Raider Nation]

Just gotta make sure FSU doesn't grab the onside kick on one hop and then takes it the distance.

 

[The Ref]

Just gotta make sure FSU doesn't grab the onside kick on one hop and then takes it the distance.

Yeah.... wouldn't that be just awful.......0-7 activated.

 

[Raider Nation]

Just gotta make sure FSU doesn't grab the onside kick on one hop and then takes it the distance.

Yeah.... wouldn't that be just awful.......0-7 activated.

Wait, you bet FSU? I must have missed that. T&P GB.

 

[Raider Nation]

2H total for AZ/Oregon: 7.5



It's so absurd, all you can do is laugh.

 

[The Ref]

Just gotta make sure FSU doesn't grab the onside kick on one hop and then takes it the distance.

Yeah.... wouldn't that be just awful.......0-7 activated.

Wait, you bet FSU? I must have missed that. T&P GB.

Yeah - remember my card of Chalk? Its OK. I'm going to go 0-7 and no matter what I'm going to end the night up because of props.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Thanks for posting the Sharps report RN, always an interesting read.

 

[cosjobs]

Biggest line values according to the power rankings I use:1-Penn St. -7 1/2 (9 point differential) -WIN2-San Jose St. +3 1/2 (7 1/2 pts.) -WIN3-Kansas St. +14 (6 1/2) -WIN4-Kent St. +4 (5 1/2) -WIN5-W. Michigan +1 1/2 (5) -WIN5-Utah +7 (5) -LOSS7-S. Carolina -10 (4 1/2) -WIN7-USC -16 (4 1/2) -WIN9-UAB +37 (4) -WIN9-Marshall -3 (4) -PUSH11-Auburn +21 (3 1/2) -WIN12-La. Monroe +7 1/2 (3) -WIN12-W. Virginia -27 (3) -LOSS12-Kentucky +24 (3) -LOSS12-Georgia -16 (3) -WIN12-Minnesota -1 (3) -WINFWIW.I've already locked in San Jose St. I may lock in a few more where I'm worried about the line moving yet tonight.

This is very interesting. 12-3-1 just by looking for the biggest spread differentials from the power rankings I use. This is not my bet card, although I had a very good weekend, but this warrants further observation.

8-1-1 if you just played the top 10 plays.

12-0-1 if he left off the hillbillies and the mormons

 

[gussy]

CFB weekend action:Louisiana-Monroe +7 1/2 -WINKansas St. +14-WINGeorgia -16 -WINUSC -16 -WINS. Carolina -10 -WINMarshall -3 -PUSHW. Virginia -27 LOSSSan Jose St. +3 1/2 -WinVirginia +18 -LOSS Florida St. -14 -WINPenn St. -7 -WINArkansas -10 -LOSSIllinois -3 -LOSSFlorida -23 -WINFla. International +14 -WINI will also be playing UCLA, currently at -7 1/2 and North Carolina -14 1/2, but I'llwait until the morning to see if I can get either without those hooks.I will also be playing Auburn if I can get a hook on that current +21.2012 CFB33-29 +1.1 units

Good week so far, 9-5 on the day, +4 units on the MLB AND hit a small 6 team MLB parlay, a 3 team NYG/BYU/BYU under parlay. Need to keep it going. Back to positive ground FINALLY after that crappy first week.

 

[The Ref]

2H total for AZ/Oregon: 7.5 It's so absurd, all you can do is laugh.

College gameday asked how many points for this game and the lowest amount was 75. We should have known at that point.

 

[Raider Nation]

Thanks for posting the Sharps report RN, always an interesting read.

Thanks for saying that. I was about to ask if anyone likes to read it. It's not a simple copy and paste. That guy writes like a 4th grader. I have to clean up all sorts of grammar and punctuation issues before it's suitable to post.

 

[gussy]

Small card tomorrow:

Jets +3 (2 units)

Cards +3 1/2

Added

Cowboys -8

small parlay that pays 24 to 1:

Cowboys -8

DET/Tenn under 47 1/2

Falcons +3

ATL/SD under 47 1/2

HOU/Den under 45

may add a few more in the morning, see how I'm feeling. Time to sleep off some scotch.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Thanks for posting the Sharps report RN, always an interesting read.

Thanks for saying that. I was about to ask if anyone likes to read it. It's not a simple copy and paste. That guy writes like a 4th grader. I have to clean up all sorts of grammar and punctuation issues before it's suitable to post.

I read it every week. Last year you didn't post it a couple of times and I think I even asked for it once.

 

[modogg]

Just bet Jon Jones -1000 . Betting lines like these are zero fun, all it can be is a sigh of relief or crushing loss.

 

[Billy Bats]

Thanks for posting the Sharps report RN, always an interesting read.

Thanks for saying that. I was about to ask if anyone likes to read it. It's not a simple copy and paste. That guy writes like a 4th grader. I have to clean up all sorts of grammar and punctuation issues before it's suitable to post.

Another vote here. I'm only a pro player, so they're nice to read. Oh and screw it, leave all the grammar mistakes in, make it more fun.

 

[Angry Beavers]

Thanks for posting the Sharps report RN, always an interesting read.

Thanks for saying that. I was about to ask if anyone likes to read it. It's not a simple copy and paste. That guy writes like a 4th grader. I have to clean up all sorts of grammar and punctuation issues before it's suitable to post.

Agreed. Thanks for sharing this.

 

[The Ref]

I think the Sharp Report Sucks. Stop posting it and lets take up a collection to pay LHUCKS to post his plays.

 

[Raider Nation]

I'm watching a Star Trek that I DVR'd tonight. Lemme know if there are 8 TDs in the first three minutes of the 2H.

 

[ChainsawU]

A ####load of people hit Oregon -10 2H

And then a ####load of people hit Arizona +10 2H

Now it's 9.5

 

[The Ref]

Booked Over 2H 31.5 in the Hawaii game

 

[The Ref]

Booked Over 2H 31.5 in the Hawaii game

Well S Jefferson came to play tonight. 25 min left in the game and he has 6 TD. If Hawaii scores a few times Jefferson may get 9 before this is over.