no ####.oh well. the CFB card tomorrow is stellarDon't you hate overthinking things? Sometimes it IS just that easy.oofo/u is 21I want to bet under, but that missed XP increases the chance of OT nowETA: 20.5 NM. no bet
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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Looking at their respective AL pennant prices, I'm going to guess the Yankees open up around -180 to -200.
The Ref
Footballguy
I bought some Clemson at -10.. I like it as well. What I'm trying to figure is the 70ish total. That seems high to me.
The Ref
Footballguy
I went to bed before halftime. All the non-sat BYU games have been brutal. Why is it exactly that BYU gets a ton of Thur/Fri night games?
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Their students wouldn't miss day drinking for big games on relatively big college campuses? IDK, maybe that's why they get all of these games?
The Ref
Footballguy
I'm going to let Goo do what he do. But I always like to play some of my own.
Playing the Pachall DUI.
One unit each
Cater TCU Under 72.5 yards
Carter TUC No TD.
Playing the WVU isn't playing Baylor this week.
One unit each.
Smith under 35.5 Comp
Smith 398.5 Yards
Austin under 10.5 Rec
Austin under 128.5 yards
Bailey undwer 125.5 yards
Playing the Pachall DUI.
One unit each
Cater TCU Under 72.5 yards
Carter TUC No TD.
Playing the WVU isn't playing Baylor this week.
One unit each.
Smith under 35.5 Comp
Smith 398.5 Yards
Austin under 10.5 Rec
Austin under 128.5 yards
Bailey undwer 125.5 yards
John Bender
Footballguy
Anyone want to text me when the Yanks/O's series price gets posted on RB?
It will require sitting around on a Saturday pressing f5
In all seriousness, will be on Yankees with a monster bet for me. Going 15 units risked similar to my Heat bet.
And I'm not letting you circus animals talk me out of it like I almost let you talk me into thinking the Thunder were better than the Heat.
Yanks are better team. This series isn't close and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong and good for the O's, but I'm shooting the locks off the wallet and letting the big dog breathe on this one.
It will require sitting around on a Saturday pressing f5
In all seriousness, will be on Yankees with a monster bet for me. Going 15 units risked similar to my Heat bet.
And I'm not letting you circus animals talk me out of it like I almost let you talk me into thinking the Thunder were better than the Heat.
Yanks are better team. This series isn't close and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong and good for the O's, but I'm shooting the locks off the wallet and letting the big dog breathe on this one.
John Bender
Footballguy
Ref>
Riding out North Texas with you. Let's get it.
Riding out North Texas with you. Let's get it.
While they are no Baylor (dead last in NCAA defense) Texas' defense isn't so great either. Allowing 390 yards/game (63 in the country). Also,Passing Defense RankWVU 118UT 43Passing OffenseWVU 1UT 40WVU was able to put up 31 on Maryland (18th best passing defense)..yada yada yada.Long story short...there will be lots of points scored in this game1u o73.5
The Ref
Footballguy
gussy
Footballguy
Today's card:
Mizzou -7 -LOSS
S. Florida -4 -LOSS
Florida St. -17 -LOSS
Texas -7 -LOSS
Notre Dame -13 -WIN
Nebraska +3 1/2 -LOSS
Penn St. -3 -WIN
Kent St. -3 -WIN
W. Michigan -17 -WIN
Florida +3 -WIN
Oregon -24
Ole Miss +11 -WIN
Kansas St. -24 -WIN
New Mexico St. +10 1/2 -WIN
Hawaii +21 1/2 -LOSS
Oklahoma -5 -WIN
New Mexico -3 -WIN
Maryland -7 -LOSS
Clemson -10 1/2 -WIN
Nebraska/Ohio St. over 56 -WIN
Somehow missed putting in the Arizona game which I bet when I did the two moneyline plays
Arizona +10 -WIN
1/2 units on:
Nebraska +135 -LOSS
Iowa St. +230 -WIN
LSU/Florida under 19 2nd half -WIN
Couple of notes, I seriously considered buying myself out of the Penn St. and Kent St. games. I played them early in the week and have kind of changed my mind on both games. I'll let them ride though.
Tail at your peril. The hot streak from a few weeks ago seems to be over.
2012 CFB
42-37 -.25 units
Mizzou -7 -LOSS
S. Florida -4 -LOSS
Florida St. -17 -LOSS
Texas -7 -LOSS
Notre Dame -13 -WIN
Nebraska +3 1/2 -LOSS
Penn St. -3 -WIN
Kent St. -3 -WIN
W. Michigan -17 -WIN
Florida +3 -WIN
Oregon -24
Ole Miss +11 -WIN
Kansas St. -24 -WIN
New Mexico St. +10 1/2 -WIN
Hawaii +21 1/2 -LOSS
Oklahoma -5 -WIN
New Mexico -3 -WIN
Maryland -7 -LOSS
Clemson -10 1/2 -WIN
Nebraska/Ohio St. over 56 -WIN
Somehow missed putting in the Arizona game which I bet when I did the two moneyline plays
Arizona +10 -WIN
1/2 units on:
Nebraska +135 -LOSS
Iowa St. +230 -WIN
LSU/Florida under 19 2nd half -WIN
Couple of notes, I seriously considered buying myself out of the Penn St. and Kent St. games. I played them early in the week and have kind of changed my mind on both games. I'll let them ride though.
Tail at your peril. The hot streak from a few weeks ago seems to be over.
2012 CFB
42-37 -.25 units
Last edited by a moderator:
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Not to take RN's Thunder, but I came across this and know there are a few of us who use this reading:
Las Vegas Sharps Report - NFL Week 5After winning Thursday night with their strong opinion on St. Louis as a home underdog vs. Arizona (driving an opening line of +3 down to +1.5 or +1 in a game that would yield a 17-3 outright victory). Sharps are now hoping for similar success with their early action in games for Sunday and Monday. Let’s run through what Sharps are thinking about this weekend’s action in rotational order.
Note that Dallas, Detroit, Oakland, and Tampa Bay all have byes, so there are only 13 games on the NFL card.
ATLANTA AT WASHINGTON:
The interest here has been on the total, as an opener of 52 has been bet down to 51. The team side line of Atlanta -3 has stood solid. We would expect Sharps to fade any public move off that critical number. But this is the kind of game that could divide the public too. Most Sharps would prefer the home dog on principle, but think the number is basically right on the money, barring any sort of surprise injury news over the weekend. Sharps are impressed with both Atlanta as a playoff threat, and with Washington as a dog with upset potential. That all cancels out at this line.
PHILADELPHIA AT PITTSBURGH:
Initial interest on the underdog here as Pittsburgh -4 was bet down to -3.5 There wasn’t enough passion to bring the line down to the key number of three, however. Many Sharps had given Philly the best NFC Power Rating when the season was about to begin. Now the team now isn’t even the top-rated side in Pennsylvania, with this line opening a point over the standard home field advantage. Sharps did like the Under though, as an opener of 44.5 is down to 43.
GREEN BAY AT INDIANAPOLIS:
This line opened Green Bay by 6.5…which is usually a sign that oddsmakers believe the “sharp” side is going to be the dog, and they’re inviting the public to bet the line higher. Instead, Sharps stepped in and took the line to seven. Some of that is probably position-taking from Sharps hoping to buy back on the dog later at a better price, but there is a feeling from some that Green Bay is the much better team, given Indy’s overall youth. There’s also a contingent of Sharps who are betting the NFC over the AFC because of the relative strength shown thus far in the season (consistent with Philly money vs. Pittsburgh in the game above). The total hasn’t drawn much interest yet.
CLEVELAND AT NY GIANTS:
Serious interest on the Browns here. That flies in the face of the NFC/AFC theory, but IS consistent with the general view that the Giants can't be trusted as big home favorites! You’ll recall they almost lost outright to Tampa Bay on this field a few weeks ago as favorites of more than a TD. Here the line opened at -10.5, but has been bet down by Sharps to -9 or -8.5. Sharps also like betting rested teams at value prices. Cleveland hasn’t played since last Thursday. A lot of good “intangible” reasons to take the dog at a double digit price. Stragglers will have to decide if all the value has been bet out now. No interest yet in the total.
TENNESSEE AT MINNESOTA:
Tennessee earned support at the opener of +6.5, largely because Sharps don’t trust the Vikings as favorites, especially here at this price, in what Sharps figure to be a low scoring contest. Sharps generally lean dogwise anyway. Yes, Minnesota has taken out San Francisco and Detroit the last two weeks, but the game stats haven’t matched the results. Tennessee is now +5.5. We’ve also seen a big move on the Under from a total of 45.5 down to 44 or even 43.5. This is an indoor game, so that’s based on team matchups (like a new QB for Tennessee) rather than weather. Sharps mostly don’t have a lot of respect for either of these offenses right now.
MIAMI AT CINCINNATI:
Miami has impressed in recent weeks, as this opening line of Cincinnati -5.5 was bet all the way down to -3. Normally you only see a move that big when a starting QB or star player is announced as “out.” But that's not the case here. Sharps like what they’ve seen from Miami in terms of their “keeping it close” potential, against the likes of the NY Jets and Arizona the past two weeks, and were happy to grab any points above the field goal. The total has gone up a point from 44 to 45, which suggests good football weather for Sunday in Cincinnati.
BALITMORE AT KANSAS CITY:
Like Green Bay/Kansas City, the opener saw the road team laying -6.5. But, unlike that game, Sharps didn’t drive the favorite up. They stepped in tentatively on the home dog to bring the number down to +6. Some of that is from old school guys who love getting points with KC in this stadium, which is always a challenging place to play for the visiting team. Still, Baltimore had extra time to prepare, and Kansas City’s home field advantage isn’t what it used to be, so some Sharps may be waiting to step in on the Ravens if the line drops any further.
SEATTLE AT CAROLINA:
Not much betting interest on this game either way. The home team is favored by three…and each team has a quarterback who Sharps are questioning right now in terms of having “the right stuff.” Enthusiasm is fading for Wilson of Seattle after his struggles thus far, and Cam Newton’s engines have cooled off dramatically since 2011. Sharps will fade any public move off the key number Sunday, but that's unlikely to materialize , as these aren’t high profile teams in terms of public betting.
CHICAGO AT JACKSONVILLE:
Jacksonville joins the list of home dogs bettors are able to back this week. Sharps liked them at the opener of +5.5. We’re now seeing +4.5 in many stores. Some of that is situational: Chicago is a road favorite playing on a short week after a road Monday Night game, historically a bad spot for teams. This line move is likely more anti-Chicago than pro-Jacksonville, as they lost badly last week on this same field.
DENVER AT NEW ENGLAND:
This will likely be the a heaviest bet game in Vegas sportsbooks because Peyton Manning is facing Tom Brady in the showcase matchup of the Sunday slate. We haven’t seen much Sharp interest yet, though. New England opened at -6.5 and has stayed there. That suggests that Sharps DON’T like New England. Obviously if Sharps wanted Brady, they would've grabbed him at less than the touchdown . So we likely have the Sharps preferring the dog, but hoping they can get +7 or better on game day after the public steps in. The total is up from 51.5 to 52 or 52.5, suggesting decent game day weather for these two noted passers. Game day may see a tug-of-war between squares on New England -6.5, and Sharps on Denver +7.
BUFFALO AT SAN FRANCISCO:
The old school guys who like to take any double digit dog moved in on Buffalo at +10. We’re now seeing +9.5 in most places. It’s telling though that the move was only a half a point. This wasn’t bandwagon support for the road dog, just line value support from a certain type of Sharp. The total is up a half a point from 44 to 44.5, keyed by the style of game Buffalo has been playing this year. They’ve had some very high scoring games thanks to a shaky defense and a turnover prone offense.
SAN DIEGO AT NEW ORLEANS:
This line opened at New Orleans -3. Sharps hit the favorite hard enough to move off the key number to -3.5 and -4 in some places. We’ve told you in the past that it takes a lot of interest (read M-O-N-E-Y) to move off a three. Sharps have spoken! Squares won’t get to back a popular home favorite at that critical number on game night. Moral of the story - Act quickly if you like a favorite!
HOUSTON AT NY JETS:
Sharps have shown a lot of respect for Houston (particularly when healthy) this year and last, and they’ve shown a lot of disdain for the Jets. So, it was no surprise at all when this line opened at Houston -7 and got bet up to -8. The opener may have struck some as being high, but oddsmakers have the Texans to be at least 10 points better than the Jets on a neutral field right now…and Sharps had it more like 11 or better based on their quick investments here.
Las Vegas Sharps Report - NFL Week 5After winning Thursday night with their strong opinion on St. Louis as a home underdog vs. Arizona (driving an opening line of +3 down to +1.5 or +1 in a game that would yield a 17-3 outright victory). Sharps are now hoping for similar success with their early action in games for Sunday and Monday. Let’s run through what Sharps are thinking about this weekend’s action in rotational order.
Note that Dallas, Detroit, Oakland, and Tampa Bay all have byes, so there are only 13 games on the NFL card.
ATLANTA AT WASHINGTON:
The interest here has been on the total, as an opener of 52 has been bet down to 51. The team side line of Atlanta -3 has stood solid. We would expect Sharps to fade any public move off that critical number. But this is the kind of game that could divide the public too. Most Sharps would prefer the home dog on principle, but think the number is basically right on the money, barring any sort of surprise injury news over the weekend. Sharps are impressed with both Atlanta as a playoff threat, and with Washington as a dog with upset potential. That all cancels out at this line.
PHILADELPHIA AT PITTSBURGH:
Initial interest on the underdog here as Pittsburgh -4 was bet down to -3.5 There wasn’t enough passion to bring the line down to the key number of three, however. Many Sharps had given Philly the best NFC Power Rating when the season was about to begin. Now the team now isn’t even the top-rated side in Pennsylvania, with this line opening a point over the standard home field advantage. Sharps did like the Under though, as an opener of 44.5 is down to 43.
GREEN BAY AT INDIANAPOLIS:
This line opened Green Bay by 6.5…which is usually a sign that oddsmakers believe the “sharp” side is going to be the dog, and they’re inviting the public to bet the line higher. Instead, Sharps stepped in and took the line to seven. Some of that is probably position-taking from Sharps hoping to buy back on the dog later at a better price, but there is a feeling from some that Green Bay is the much better team, given Indy’s overall youth. There’s also a contingent of Sharps who are betting the NFC over the AFC because of the relative strength shown thus far in the season (consistent with Philly money vs. Pittsburgh in the game above). The total hasn’t drawn much interest yet.
CLEVELAND AT NY GIANTS:
Serious interest on the Browns here. That flies in the face of the NFC/AFC theory, but IS consistent with the general view that the Giants can't be trusted as big home favorites! You’ll recall they almost lost outright to Tampa Bay on this field a few weeks ago as favorites of more than a TD. Here the line opened at -10.5, but has been bet down by Sharps to -9 or -8.5. Sharps also like betting rested teams at value prices. Cleveland hasn’t played since last Thursday. A lot of good “intangible” reasons to take the dog at a double digit price. Stragglers will have to decide if all the value has been bet out now. No interest yet in the total.
TENNESSEE AT MINNESOTA:
Tennessee earned support at the opener of +6.5, largely because Sharps don’t trust the Vikings as favorites, especially here at this price, in what Sharps figure to be a low scoring contest. Sharps generally lean dogwise anyway. Yes, Minnesota has taken out San Francisco and Detroit the last two weeks, but the game stats haven’t matched the results. Tennessee is now +5.5. We’ve also seen a big move on the Under from a total of 45.5 down to 44 or even 43.5. This is an indoor game, so that’s based on team matchups (like a new QB for Tennessee) rather than weather. Sharps mostly don’t have a lot of respect for either of these offenses right now.
MIAMI AT CINCINNATI:
Miami has impressed in recent weeks, as this opening line of Cincinnati -5.5 was bet all the way down to -3. Normally you only see a move that big when a starting QB or star player is announced as “out.” But that's not the case here. Sharps like what they’ve seen from Miami in terms of their “keeping it close” potential, against the likes of the NY Jets and Arizona the past two weeks, and were happy to grab any points above the field goal. The total has gone up a point from 44 to 45, which suggests good football weather for Sunday in Cincinnati.
BALITMORE AT KANSAS CITY:
Like Green Bay/Kansas City, the opener saw the road team laying -6.5. But, unlike that game, Sharps didn’t drive the favorite up. They stepped in tentatively on the home dog to bring the number down to +6. Some of that is from old school guys who love getting points with KC in this stadium, which is always a challenging place to play for the visiting team. Still, Baltimore had extra time to prepare, and Kansas City’s home field advantage isn’t what it used to be, so some Sharps may be waiting to step in on the Ravens if the line drops any further.
SEATTLE AT CAROLINA:
Not much betting interest on this game either way. The home team is favored by three…and each team has a quarterback who Sharps are questioning right now in terms of having “the right stuff.” Enthusiasm is fading for Wilson of Seattle after his struggles thus far, and Cam Newton’s engines have cooled off dramatically since 2011. Sharps will fade any public move off the key number Sunday, but that's unlikely to materialize , as these aren’t high profile teams in terms of public betting.
CHICAGO AT JACKSONVILLE:
Jacksonville joins the list of home dogs bettors are able to back this week. Sharps liked them at the opener of +5.5. We’re now seeing +4.5 in many stores. Some of that is situational: Chicago is a road favorite playing on a short week after a road Monday Night game, historically a bad spot for teams. This line move is likely more anti-Chicago than pro-Jacksonville, as they lost badly last week on this same field.
DENVER AT NEW ENGLAND:
This will likely be the a heaviest bet game in Vegas sportsbooks because Peyton Manning is facing Tom Brady in the showcase matchup of the Sunday slate. We haven’t seen much Sharp interest yet, though. New England opened at -6.5 and has stayed there. That suggests that Sharps DON’T like New England. Obviously if Sharps wanted Brady, they would've grabbed him at less than the touchdown . So we likely have the Sharps preferring the dog, but hoping they can get +7 or better on game day after the public steps in. The total is up from 51.5 to 52 or 52.5, suggesting decent game day weather for these two noted passers. Game day may see a tug-of-war between squares on New England -6.5, and Sharps on Denver +7.
BUFFALO AT SAN FRANCISCO:
The old school guys who like to take any double digit dog moved in on Buffalo at +10. We’re now seeing +9.5 in most places. It’s telling though that the move was only a half a point. This wasn’t bandwagon support for the road dog, just line value support from a certain type of Sharp. The total is up a half a point from 44 to 44.5, keyed by the style of game Buffalo has been playing this year. They’ve had some very high scoring games thanks to a shaky defense and a turnover prone offense.
SAN DIEGO AT NEW ORLEANS:
This line opened at New Orleans -3. Sharps hit the favorite hard enough to move off the key number to -3.5 and -4 in some places. We’ve told you in the past that it takes a lot of interest (read M-O-N-E-Y) to move off a three. Sharps have spoken! Squares won’t get to back a popular home favorite at that critical number on game night. Moral of the story - Act quickly if you like a favorite!
HOUSTON AT NY JETS:
Sharps have shown a lot of respect for Houston (particularly when healthy) this year and last, and they’ve shown a lot of disdain for the Jets. So, it was no surprise at all when this line opened at Houston -7 and got bet up to -8. The opener may have struck some as being high, but oddsmakers have the Texans to be at least 10 points better than the Jets on a neutral field right now…and Sharps had it more like 11 or better based on their quick investments here.
optionmaven
Footballguy
NO genius, more like an idiot savant. I played under 38, 31, 28.5, and 23.5 in live betting. Today, I have Northwestern and Purdue keyed in alot of 3 team teasers.It takes true genius to make the simple things work.Don't you hate overthinking things? Sometimes it IS just that easy.oofo/u is 21I want to bet under, but that missed XP increases the chance of OT now
cosjobs
Footballguy
Texas is always better than A&M, that's why they left the conferenceOle Miss coach Hugh Freeze did not name a starting quarterback after Thursday's practice. Quarterbacks Bo Wallace and Barry Brunetti have been competing this week to decide who will start Saturday's game against Texas A&M (6 p.m., ESPNU). While Wallace has started the first five games this season, he has eight turnovers. Both are still expected to play, no matter who gets the nod. linkMoved the line to 13½.TAMU should win easily IMO. Look what Texas did to Ole Miss, not sure Texas is better than TAMU.A&M hits the road for the first time versus the SEC this weekend. It will be redshirt freshman Johnny Manziel's first road start versus a conference opponent. We all saw what Nunes looked like in the same situation last week. And Mississippi is getting 11½ points at home versus them.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Tailing, best of luck bud.
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mquinnjr
Footballguy
Public huge on the other side of your 2U play, what's the angle? Considering tailing.
bmj87
Footballguy
Partly because the public sucks.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Was typing in your reply. I'm locked and loaded for 2U @ +7.GL, bmj!
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optionmaven
Footballguy
actually, that line started at 10, and has been bet down to 7.
figured bmj had that already
John Bender
Footballguy
So far...
Army +7 (sorry bmj)
Northwestern +3
Miami +14
North Texas +14
2 Team MONEY LINE PARLAY:
Texas -300 and Oklahoma -190 - 2 unit to win 2.1 unit
Army +7 (sorry bmj)
Northwestern +3
Miami +14
North Texas +14
2 Team MONEY LINE PARLAY:
Texas -300 and Oklahoma -190 - 2 unit to win 2.1 unit
mquinnjr
Footballguy
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Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Fwiw, already on mia FM +14 as well.
Also on Clemson and the wva/TeX Over
Glta
Ab
Also on Clemson and the wva/TeX Over
Glta
Ab
Wow, was really on the wrong side of this Auburn play. They look awful. Officially worried for LSU now
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Verlander postseason has always at least given up 3 runs
A's over 3
A's over 3
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Missed this last night but with Moore out, I think this is solid
Darren Sproles (Saints) Total Receptions - Must Play
Over 5 (-130)
Darren Sproles (Saints) Total Receptions - Must Play
Over 5 (-130)
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Sometimes it IS just that easy!
John Bender
Footballguy
Not a good start, Northwestern, you #######.
John Bender
Footballguy
BC punting. This game is getting good.
modogg
Footballguy
i didn't tail this, but good call
John Bender
Footballguy
Hey bmj> we broke the streak :Army:
Slap it high good bud
Slap it high good bud
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Well, my work here is done.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Even the umps helped out with this one.
here's to the start of a winning streak!
