FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (11 Viewers)

[The Ref]

Sun Belt football tonight:Full disclosure I have UNT in a teaser at +10½ in a junkie action play ending with SF -½, NYG PK, HOU PK, PIT/CIN o39½. ULL is bringing Terrance Broadway in at QB after losing their starter last week. He is not bad, and is a dual threat with game experience in all four games this season. I think he is why the line is so short. UNT is a running team. They have one playmaker at WR. And they convert about 30% of their third downs. They have only been over 40% on third down in one game this season. ULL brings a strong rushing defense. That looks to me like a play on ULL and the under which I parlayed. And although it took a while to admit, I was way off on UNT versus Houston. My bad for calling that, but I really did think the Cougars were that bad.

Thats about how I see it as well. Broadway was a big high school recruit who was supposed to be next big QB at Houston before he lost out to Piland. ULL stops the run OK and can run a little bit. UNT has hung tough in most of the games they have played including some big schools. I think the side is priced right. If I had to I think I'd hold my nose and take the 4 at home, but thankfully I don't have to. My idea is to hope for a low scoring 1Q as both teams feel each other out and then to put a live bet on the over when the game starts to open up a bit.

 

[The Ref]

I don't follow baseball, but Detroit -180 and under 7 are the plays here, right? Sounds like a good parlay as well.

No thoughts on the total, because Hughes is a pea-brained, unclutch spaz who could give up 8 runs in the 1st.As far as the game line goes, I'm a Yankee fan and I would start to consider them at somewhere around +430.

The way your talking about this game Det -1.5 +110 sounds like a bargain.

 

[tjnc09]

Like this value a lot:

Justin Verlander no HR allowed -135.

It's supposed to be rainy, cold, and wind blowing in 6-7mph.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Like this value a lot:Justin Verlander no HR allowed -135. It's supposed to be rainy, cold, and wind blowing in 6-7mph.

52 degrees with a 20% chance of rain is cold and rainy? Not in Michigan it isn't.ETA: I'm playing U 7 (-120). Hughes has a .92 career WHIP at Comerica.

 

[modogg]

FWIW, Obama -200 isn't a super-great price, but I think it's as good as you're going to see between now and the election. They're going to take great care to make sure he doesn't biff another debate, and he should be able to repair some/most of the damage done by the first one. Foreign policy-wise, the Benghazi thing doesn't seem to be hurting him with moderates, and he can point to the winding down of both wars and killing OBL as big successes. He's weak on civil liberties, but Romney doesn't have much standing to go after him on that front.I think Obama starts to pull away a bit more over the next three weeks, although not to the levels he attained pre-debate.Full disclosure: I didn't vote for either guy. And I have a degree in PoliSci.

i hope so. I will be lining up with all the right-wing nutjobs on hating Obama if he loses. Hell, i think I'll be in the front of the line bashing Obama if he is on the losing end of this election

 

[gussy]

La-Lafayette -5

Tigers -170

2 team parlay, one half unit, pays a unit.

 

[gussy]

Biggest differentials between Vegas ratings and actual lines:

I will put the Vegas spread followed by the actual spread:

Clemson -14 (-8 1/2)

San Jose St. -18 (-13)

NC State -10 (-3)

TCU -3 (+3)

Louisville -14 1/2 (-6 1/2)

Tennessee +15 1/2 (+21)

Miami, Fla +15 (+20 1/2)

Oregon St. -17 1/2 (-11)

I locked in all except Tennessee and Miami, Fla in anticipation of lines moving further and giving me a better number.

May very well lay off Miami, Fla, not sure if that's much of a home field advantage in that game.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Biggest differentials between Vegas ratings and actual lines:I will put the Vegas spread followed by the actual spread:Clemson -14 (-8 1/2)San Jose St. -18 (-13)NC State -10 (-3)TCU -3 (+3)Louisville -14 1/2 (-6 1/2)Tennessee +15 1/2 (+21)Miami, Fla +15 (+20 1/2)Oregon St. -17 1/2 (-11)I locked in all except Tennessee and Miami, Fla in anticipation of lines moving further and giving me a better number.May very well lay off Miami, Fla, not sure if that's much of a home field advantage in that game.

Are there any stats on how much better the Vegas ratings do than the actual lines?

 

[Raider Nation]

I don't follow baseball, but Detroit -180 and under 7 are the plays here, right? Sounds like a good parlay as well.

No thoughts on the total, because Hughes is a pea-brained, unclutch spaz who could give up 8 runs in the 1st.As far as the game line goes, I'm a Yankee fan and I would start to consider them at somewhere around +430.

The way your talking about this game Det -1.5 +110 sounds like a bargain.

Yes. Yes it is.

 

[Raider Nation]

Like this value a lot:

Justin Verlander no HR allowed -135.

It's supposed to be rainy, cold, and wind blowing in 6-7mph.

52 degrees with a 20% chance of rain is cold and rainy? Not in Michigan it isn't.ETA: I'm playing U 7 (-120). Hughes has a .92 career WHIP at Comerica.

How many of those games were in the ALCS? His nuts will shrink under the pressure. You can set your watch to it.

 

[Tiger Fan]

La-Lafayette -5Tigers -170 2 team parlay, one half unit, pays a unit.

tailing

 

[The Ref]

Tonight was supposed to be poker night, but the wife is feeling sick so I'm playing the role of a good husband and staying home.

As a result I'm a little more invested then normal for a Tuesday night.

ULL -5 1 unit

Under 56 1 unit

Tigers -1.5 1 unit

# of pitchers U 6.5 1 unit

Gooroo prop - 1.5 units

Tigers/Ducks 1:1 parlay

Tigers/49'ers 1:1 parlay

 

[gussy]

Biggest differentials between Vegas ratings and actual lines:I will put the Vegas spread followed by the actual spread:Clemson -14 (-8 1/2)San Jose St. -18 (-13)NC State -10 (-3)TCU -3 (+3)Louisville -14 1/2 (-6 1/2)Tennessee +15 1/2 (+21)Miami, Fla +15 (+20 1/2)Oregon St. -17 1/2 (-11)I locked in all except Tennessee and Miami, Fla in anticipation of lines moving further and giving me a better number.May very well lay off Miami, Fla, not sure if that's much of a home field advantage in that game.

Are there any stats on how much better the Vegas ratings do than the actual lines?

I don't know if there is or not. What I'm trying to do here is look at power ratings from Vegas sharps and use them to see where there may be early line discrepencies. I've played a lot of these games the last 2 weeks. 2 weeks ago I had a great weekend, last weekend was pretty bad, but I think it was pretty bad for almost everyone. These guys are smarter than I am. Some of these games it's easy to have an opinion on..........over reaction in the line after Texas Tech's big win last week vs. WVU is a prime example. Thinking that Vegas is STILL has the Beavers undervalued, especially after rolling up a bunch of points on a GREAT BYU defense last week. I think a lot of guys here had already identified Clemson as a good play, Vegas rankings confirm it. The rankings point you in the direction of undervalued teams more than anything. I've played New Mexico a number of times this year and had good success. Same with San Jose St and Utah St. Also Kent St. I find teams that I typically don't follow by watching the Vegas rankings.

 

[Treynwreck3]

Tonight was supposed to be poker night, but the wife is feeling sick so I'm playing the role of a good husband and staying home.

As a result I'm a little more invested then normal for a Tuesday night.

ULL -5 1 unit

Under 56 1 unit

Tigers -1.5 1 unit

# of pitchers U 6.5 1 unit

Gooroo prop - 1.5 units

Tigers/Ducks 1:1 parlay

Tigers/49'ers 1:1 parlay

Damned admirable of you.

 

[tjnc09]

Like this value a lot:Justin Verlander no HR allowed -135. It's supposed to be rainy, cold, and wind blowing in 6-7mph.

52 degrees with a 20% chance of rain is cold and rainy? Not in Michigan it isn't.ETA: I'm playing U 7 (-120). Hughes has a .92 career WHIP at Comerica.

For a baseball game it is. It was more Verlander is a beast at home and the Yankees are swinging wet noodles. But the cold weather never hurts that prop.

 

[TheWick]

Tonight was supposed to be poker night, but the wife is feeling sick so I'm playing the role of a good husband and staying home.

As a result I'm a little more invested then normal for a Tuesday night.

ULL -5 1 unit

Under 56 1 unit

Tigers -1.5 1 unit

# of pitchers U 6.5 1 unit

Gooroo prop - 1.5 units

Tigers/Ducks 1:1 parlay

Tigers/49'ers 1:1 parlay

Verlander no HR -125?Just a guess

 

[The Ref]

Last night i played a prop in the giants/cards game. It was how many pitchers will throw 1 pitch over/under 9.5. Todays games over/under is 6.5. Verlander goes the distance, will 5 yankkee pitchers make an appearance???

It's the first of 3 straight games so I would expect them to at least try to save their bulpens.

Well it was a good bet. It took an injury and a last out meaningless pitching change for it to go over.

 

[The Ref]

2H over 26.5 BTW

 

[The Ref]

Excellent. Fluke Injury, Fluke no reason pitching change, fluke 0-2 HR in the top of the 9th costing me $$ every step of the way.

 

[optionmaven]

Excellent. Fluke Injury, Fluke no reason pitching change, fluke 0-2 HR in the top of the 9th costing me $$ every step of the way.

Kevin Kline opening the safe in A Fish Called Wanda..............I'M DISSAPPOINTED!!!!!

 

[TheWick]

I got Nunez'd

 

[TheWick]

"Nunez" - Jerry Seinfeld voice

 

[TheGooRoo]

Tonight was supposed to be poker night, but the wife is feeling sick so I'm playing the role of a good husband and staying home.

As a result I'm a little more invested then normal for a Tuesday night.

ULL -5 1 unit

Under 56 1 unit

Tigers -1.5 1 unit

# of pitchers U 6.5 1 unit

Gooroo prop - 1.5 units

Tigers/Ducks 1:1 parlay

Tigers/49'ers 1:1 parlay

Verlander no HR -125?Just a guess

Infante no k +115

 

[Tiger Fan]

La-Lafayette -5Tigers -170 2 team parlay, one half unit, pays a unit.

tailing

Let's go Ragin' Cajuns!

 

[TheWick]

That one was too easy so I didn't play it

I need to find a new GR out :(

Tonight was supposed to be poker night, but the wife is feeling sick so I'm playing the role of a good husband and staying home.

As a result I'm a little more invested then normal for a Tuesday night.

ULL -5 1 unit

Under 56 1 unit

Tigers -1.5 1 unit

# of pitchers U 6.5 1 unit

Gooroo prop - 1.5 units

Tigers/Ducks 1:1 parlay

Tigers/49'ers 1:1 parlay

Verlander no HR -125?Just a guess

Infante no k +115

 

[Raider Nation]

Is this not the most unexciting 23-20 game ever?

 

[The Ref]

Is this not the most unexciting 23-20 game ever?

Def has the feel of an early December mid week bowl game at a stadium you never heard of.But again - the chances of me watching this game on Saturday is 0%. Chances on a Tuesday night 92.3456%.

 

[Raider Nation]

Heading for OVERtime.

 

[The Ref]

Heading for OVERtime.

I'm in awe right now. The one thing that helps me more then anything is a ULL FG. The announcers talked up how awesome the ULL kicker is..... and he actually hit the kick. If this kid played for NIU we would both be millionaires.

 

[Tiger Fan]

Heading for OVERtime.

looks like i'll need ULL to get the ball first and score a TD, then shut out NT

 

[Tiger Fan]

wow

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I hate gambling

 

[The Ref]

I hate gambling

Well anyone on the under should be happy....

 

[mquinnjr]

I hate gambling

Well anyone on the under should be happy....

U55.5 was a sweat box at the end there. Great line though, wouldn't have lost much of my bankroll if that didn't come through though. Good call, Ref.

 

[John Bender]

Now I really hate the Yankees

 

[The Ref]

I hate gambling

Well anyone on the under should be happy....

U55.5 was a sweat box at the end there. Great line though, wouldn't have lost much of my bankroll if that didn't come through though. Good call, Ref.

Total dusty finish at the end. UNT runs up the middle for what looks like a TD that UL wants them to have so they can get the ball back and what seems like 45 seconds after the TD the announcers mention a flag that turns out to be holding. I almost shut it off. Anyone have anything for tonight?

 

[The Ref]

Our Boy Levi was talking about how Arizona State should be ranked and how they can beat Oregon.

Do what you will.

 

[lumpy19]

I hate gambling

Well anyone on the under should be happy....

U55.5 was a sweat box at the end there. Great line though, wouldn't have lost much of my bankroll if that didn't come through though. Good call, Ref.

Total dusty finish at the end. UNT runs up the middle for what looks like a TD that UL wants them to have so they can get the ball back and what seems like 45 seconds after the TD the announcers mention a flag that turns out to be holding. I almost shut it off. Anyone have anything for tonight?

Here's what I played tonightSF/STL u7 -105det/nyy u7 -120sf +120det +101

 

[lumpy19]

Here we go, bush stadium at 5pm(pic was taken oct 3 2011)http://tinypic.com/r/90soxc/6Found my notes, last years game started at 5:05, this time it's 4:07.....

I take it you are looking at the under due to pitcher advantage?

yup, but weather calling for PM thunderstorms, going to wait til closer to game time to see what the weather looks like

Ignore this...game is at 4:07 EST which will be 3:07 in STL, those shadows won't hit til the later innings. Last year we used those shadows to hammer a bunch of 1st inning props, won't work this year. Some books offer 2h baseball lines, might have to try that depending on the thunderstorms.

 

[TheWick]

There will be NO shadows today in STL

 

[PatsFanCT]

I hate gambling

Well anyone on the under should be happy....

U55.5 was a sweat box at the end there. Great line though, wouldn't have lost much of my bankroll if that didn't come through though. Good call, Ref.

Total dusty finish at the end. UNT runs up the middle for what looks like a TD that UL wants them to have so they can get the ball back and what seems like 45 seconds after the TD the announcers mention a flag that turns out to be holding. I almost shut it off. Anyone have anything for tonight?

Here's what I played tonightSF/STL u7 -105

det/nyy u7 -120

sf +120

det +101

Det is now +104. I'll grab some now, and hope it climbs again later.

 

[John Bender]

Anyone want to help me make this Yankee series bet less suckier.... :(

So I've got 7.5 units on it.

Let's just call it 8 units at -135.

How does one successfully play this with some Tiger money on the final game(s)?

I don't mind taking a hit on the 8 units but is the best way to make some of this back to just bet 2 units on the Tigers and Martingdale that 2 units up to 8. At that point it would be a 3-3 series and I could reassess.

Help - thanks.

 

[PatsFanCT]

Anyone want to help me make this Yankee series bet less suckier.... :(So I've got 7.5 units on it.Let's just call it 8 units at -135.How does one successfully play this with some Tiger money on the final game(s)?I don't mind taking a hit on the 8 units but is the best way to make some of this back to just bet 2 units on the Tigers and Martingdale that 2 units up to 8. At that point it would be a 3-3 series and I could reassess. Help - thanks.

Tigers +104 / u7 (-130) parlay.

 

[lumpy19]

Anyone want to help me make this Yankee series bet less suckier.... :(So I've got 7.5 units on it.Let's just call it 8 units at -135.How does one successfully play this with some Tiger money on the final game(s)?I don't mind taking a hit on the 8 units but is the best way to make some of this back to just bet 2 units on the Tigers and Martingdale that 2 units up to 8. At that point it would be a 3-3 series and I could reassess. Help - thanks.

If you do that and then the yanks win 3 straight you're down 16+ units and then det wins game 7 and you're ####ed

 

[John Bender]

Anyone want to help me make this Yankee series bet less suckier.... :(So I've got 7.5 units on it.Let's just call it 8 units at -135.How does one successfully play this with some Tiger money on the final game(s)?I don't mind taking a hit on the 8 units but is the best way to make some of this back to just bet 2 units on the Tigers and Martingdale that 2 units up to 8. At that point it would be a 3-3 series and I could reassess. Help - thanks.

If you do that and then the yanks win 3 straight you're down 16+ units and then det wins game 7 and you're ####ed

I know.Would be an all out #### show at that point. Believe me, I've thought of that.If I'm crazy for even trying it, I'll take my medicine and move on. I can handle the 8 units. The 16 units may get a little uncomfortable.Let me ask you this then...on an account where I have enough credit to wager up to 16 units, is this a pretty ####ty and/or unethical thing to do?

 

[Good Posting Judge]

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

"what about Strawberry?"

 

[LOCO]

No runs 1st inning of cards game. Two very good pitchers. NL players. Lets get it boys.

 

[John Bender]

Absolutely possible.

2 years ago during a hockey game I was watching I kicked the air really hard and my shoe went flying off of my foot, hit my 42" plasma and broke it. Cost me a 100 dollar wager and a 350 dollar bill at Mr. Changs Television Repair.

I could see this as a next level version of that.

Most likely though, I'd just give my girlfriend a Razor's Edge through my 20 dollar Ikea coffee table.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Anyone want to help me make this Yankee series bet less suckier.... :(So I've got 7.5 units on it.Let's just call it 8 units at -135.How does one successfully play this with some Tiger money on the final game(s)?I don't mind taking a hit on the 8 units but is the best way to make some of this back to just bet 2 units on the Tigers and Martingdale that 2 units up to 8. At that point it would be a 3-3 series and I could reassess. Help - thanks.

If you do that and then the yanks win 3 straight you're down 16+ units and then det wins game 7 and you're ####ed

I know.Would be an all out #### show at that point. Believe me, I've thought of that.If I'm crazy for even trying it, I'll take my medicine and move on. I can handle the 8 units. The 16 units may get a little uncomfortable.Let me ask you this then...on an account where I have enough credit to wager up to 16 units, is this a pretty ####ty and/or unethical thing to do?

Not at all. What about just betting 200u to win 8u on the Tigers to win the Series?