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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (2 Viewers)

'Angry Beavers said:
What concerns me is that JAX has gotten destroyed at home this year by scores of:

27 - 7; 27-10; 41-3; 31-14 - That makes them 0-4 ATS at home and 4-0 ATS on the road :rolleyes:

A wise man (Gambino) said "Don't ask bad teams to do good things."

Good Luck to those on Jax, I just don't see it. I have not decided to play INDY, just not seeing Jax as a strong play.

Edit to add: To Lumpy's point, Indy is only 1-2 on the road, both SU and ATS. The first loss was to Chicago in week 1 and they then got rolled by the NYJ in week 5 after beating GB at home. They finally righted the away ship by beating Tenn two weeks ago and covering the number. I don't think they are an awful road team, whereas JAX has showed nothing at home IMHO.
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If you go back a few pages here somewhere, I pointed this out also. Road Warriors, Home Crapola. I actually agree with Lumpy/Bender here though. First off, that trend is due to revert to a norm where they kill on the road/get crushed at home. Secondly, aren't both starting safeties out for the colts? The colts already have trouble with the run and that bodes well for the Jags. Third, being on the opposite side of the public feels good here. I have the jags in some teasers and parlays at this point.

I'd really like to get Lumpy's reasoning for Arky st. - 7. I've been a recent backer of Arky but this looks like a tight game to me that Monroe has a better than good chance to win outright.

 
'Leroy Hoard said:
Texas A&M + almost 2 TDs? Anyone else looking at this game?
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Came down off 14 today from last night. Bama letdown on the horizon?? I could see it.I have been playing Northwestern +11 and +17 in parlays and teasers. Line got hammered to 9.5 today. Still looks good in the teasers with +2tds.
 
'optionmaven said:
'Leroy Hoard said:
Texas A&M + almost 2 TDs? Anyone else looking at this game?
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Came down off 14 today from last night. Bama letdown on the horizon?? I could see it.I have been playing Northwestern +11 and +17 in parlays and teasers. Line got hammered to 9.5 today. Still looks good in the teasers with +2tds.
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Focus is key when playing a&m, lots of formations to adjust to in-game. I'll take a shot on the dog.
 
'Raider Nation said:
JB, you try my General Tso's chicken yet?
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That damn sauce is nowhere to be found.I just got back from the super market actually.I bought a sirloin pork roast and apple cider and veggies.Thinking of just putting all of that in the crock pot and letting it go. Any thoughts? Can't be anything wrong with that right?
 
Hell no, that'll work fine.

As for the sauce, it's at every Stop & Shop up here. Dunno why you can't find it.

Order a case of it online. You have my personal guarantee of it's awesomeness.

 
'lumpy19 said:
'Annyong said:
'JerseyToughGuys said:
'lumpy19 said:
Jax +3.5 -110 available at sportsbook, really really like this bet. +3.5 -120 more widely available, love this spot for jax tonight
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:hifive:
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what do you guys like about this?
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Home team, short week, Indy team has a lot of 1st/2nd year players My link I realize Andrew Luck is a special player but this Indy team hasn't done anything on the road to make me think they should be giving 3.5 points, especially on a short week with such a young team.
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They had a very emotional win with Coach Pagano vs. Miami and a lot of focus was on him with the players shaving their heads this week. Agree with the young players aspect - possible big let down game. This already happened once after their GB game - the Jets shouldn't beat anyone 35-9.Besides, even after Vegas got hosed in week 9, I think NFL dogs are still hitting 57-58% this year.

 
I figured I would give it a go and try to cap the kicking game after last night. ;)

FSU has had an extra week to prepare for this. And FSU ranks 6th in the nation kickoff return and 9th in the nation in punt return with 3 punt return touchdowns.

VT is 104th in kickoff return defense and 42nd in punt return defense while ranking 91st in the nation in net punting yards.

link

link

 
'lumpy19 said:
'ScoobySnack said:
'lumpy19 said:
'Leroy Hoard said:
Texas A&M + almost 2 TDs? Anyone else looking at this game?
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I played Texas A&M at +14. I think they're a tough matchup for Bama, just can't resist getting 2 scores at home.
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The game is in Alabama, though I still like A&M after watching them last week.
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OK I fixed my post :)
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Possibly a total homer play, but I think it will be close early. Unless, Bama gets the ball, takes 4-5 minutes and pounds it down the field.

2nd Half won't be a contest, as Johnny Futbol will be playing from behind and show that he is a redshirt freshman playing against the touhest D in America. Not to mention another road SEC game.

 
Got Jax at +4.5 (-112)

Luck isn't as good on the road, everyone is on the colts, these weird Thurs games seem to favor the Home team, Jags beat Indy already.

The thing I love here is the points. The Colts haven't blown anyone out all year. They beat the Packers, Vikings, Dolphins by 3, the Browns by 4 and an 6 point OT win vs the Titans.

 
I like this prop:

Gabbert over 19.5 completions. It's -135 at 5dimes and -160 at SB.

He had 27 completions in each of his last 2 games and seems to have all his receivers healthy against a banged up Colts secondary.

There's another prop at 5dimes that doesn't make much sense to me:

1st to throw an interception:

Luck -195

Gabbert +160

I'm on Gabbert obviously. Seems like those should be reversed or closer to even, no?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
'Aaron Rudnicki said:
I like this prop:

Gabbert over 19.5 completions. It's -135 at 5dimes and -160 at SB.

He had 27 completions in each of his last 2 games and seems to have all his receivers healthy against a banged up Colts secondary.

There's another prop at 5dimes that doesn't make much sense to me:

1st to throw an interception:

Luck -195

Gabbert +160

I'm on Gabbert obviously. Seems like those should be reversed, no?
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Probably a combination of: Luck on the road, Colts secondary injuries, and I think Jacksonville will try to run the ball - they gave up 177 to MJD the first game and give up 4.8 yd per carry
 
I love it when there is a strong stand on a game and people take both sides. Fun reading all the takes.

Also love it when CletiusMaximus strolls in for a shot. Says one or two words. Then leaves, spurs clicking.

Also dig it when the dog barks.

 
This Noles team looks very much like the team that lost to NC State....almost lethargic and uninterested on offense. FSU is historically bad on Thursday night.

I should know better than to bet on them yet I still haven't learned to separate my head from my heart...which usually ends up with my losing my donkey. Lets hope that trend discontinues tonight.

 
'got_nugs said:
This Noles team looks very much like the team that lost to NC State....almost lethargic and uninterested on offense. FSU is historically bad on Thursday night.I should know better than to bet on them yet I still haven't learned to separate my head from my heart...which usually ends up with my losing my donkey. Lets hope that trend discontinues tonight.
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They checked out like this vs Clemson as well. Lets hope they can make the 2H sing.
 
'The Ref said:
'got_nugs said:
This Noles team looks very much like the team that lost to NC State....almost lethargic and uninterested on offense. FSU is historically bad on Thursday night.I should know better than to bet on them yet I still haven't learned to separate my head from my heart...which usually ends up with my losing my donkey. Lets hope that trend discontinues tonight.
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They checked out like this vs Clemson as well. Lets hope they can make the 2H sing.
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That's only going to happen if Jim-bob stops calling those horrible delayed runs and EJ can hit a WR in stride. The defense will be fine.
 
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