What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (16 Viewers)

Just an FYI ... sportsbook.ag (and their affiliates) now have a "cash transfer" withdrawal option. Its actually Moneygram. It takes 7-10 days, but only $1000 max, but you can do 1 a week, but only 1 a month is free ($40 for others). Its supposed to be much faster than the other withdrawal methods. I did a bank wire, and it took 5 weeks to go from "pending" to "processed", hopefully I'll have the funds in another week.

 
Parlay lock of the year:

Tampa -7.5, over 48

Eagles defense, as we all know, is godawful. They have surrendered 28+ points in six straight games. They just replaced the dline coach and started teaching new techniques this Wednesday. Their starting S Kurt Coleman, terrible in his own right, is hurt and somebody named Colt Anderson is starting in his place. He's a special teamer and hasn't started since 2010. Opposing QBs have a 150+ QB rating in 3rd down, and an overall QB rating of 140+ giving up 16 td passes and zero picks in the last six games. Factor that in with WRs running wide open, I can see Tampa easily dropping 40 on this mess of a defense.

Tampa meanwhile scores a good amount on their own. Averaging 30.8 over their last six games. Factor that in with the leagues worst pass defense playing a pass happy offense, it's safe to assume a lot of points will be scored in this game.

I'm calling for a final of Tampa 41-20. Lock it up.

 
'nittanylion said:
Army/Navy UNDER 56(-120): This game has ugly written all over it. Two pure option teams with terrible defenses. The thing is, when it's option team vs option team, they tend to defend the run better, due to familiarity, as it's exactly the rush offense they go up against every day in practice. The atheletes are of comparable athleticism and talent on both sides of the ball, no discernable advantage there, but it's Army/Navy, so they're obviously going to give it their all, and when the two teams are statistically close (check) and statistically bad (check), the results tend to be close, and the score tends to be low. I think the odds that these two combine to score 8 TD's between them is slim to none.Throwing a little on Navy -.5 / U62 (6.5 pointer), just for S & G, as it's the only thing on, and I want to root for a side.Good Luck!
Click to expand...
Army doesn't have anyone on defense over 255 pounds and they are 112th in scoring defense. They are also #1 in the country running the ball and lost by one point to BCS bound NIU 41-40 and by just 8 to bowl-bound Ball State. No one game has been over 48 since 2005 which was also the last time Army had a shot at the Commander-in-Chief's trophy which they haven't won since 1996.
 
Dallas/Cincy game might get weird.

Cowboy NT Josh Brent arrested for killing practice squad player in drunk driving accident.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
UFC cards starts soon, and is on Fox tonight at 8. I don't have real strong feelings on too many plays tonight, but will likely add some when the card starts and i get a chance to enjoy it. I guess the plays i like the best for now are Diaz +135, and Easton -245. Njiem -180 and Cuishank -150 are good pays too.

absolutely love the ability to parlay NFL and UFC on 5dimes, big :thumbup: to them. 2 i have in for now:

Pending 12/9/12 1:00pm NFL Football 106 Washington Redskins -1½ -125* vs Baltimore Ravens

Pending 12/9/12 1:00pm NFL Football 120 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -350* vs Philadelphia Eagles

Pending 12/9/12 4:05pm NFL Football 126 San Francisco 49ers -550* vs Miami Dolphins

Pending 12/9/12 4:25pm NFL Football 128 New York Giants -235* vs New Orleans Saints

Pending 12/9/12 4:25pm NFL Football 130 Seattle Seahawks -485* vs Arizona Cardinals

Pending 12/8/12 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Alexander Gustafsson -250* vs Mauricio Rua

Pending 12/8/12 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1202 Rory MacDonald -280* vs BJ Penn

Pending 12/8/12 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1501 Mike Easton -255* vs Raphael Assuncao

Pending 12/8/12 7:00pm UFC Fighting 1602 Ramsey Nijem -215* vs Joe Proctor

Pending 12/8/12 6:30pm UFC Fighting 1702 Daron Cruickshank -150* vs Henry Martinez

Pending 12/8/12 5:30pm UFC Fighting 1902 Dennis Siver -290* vs Nam Phan

Pending 12/8/12 5:00pm UFC Fighting 2002 Scott Jorgensen -255* vs John Albert

Pending 12/29/12 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1401 Alan Belcher +110* vs Yushin Okami

Pending 1/19/13 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1001 Michael Bisping +100* vs Vitor Belfort

Pending 1/26/13 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1301 Glover Teixeira -280* vs Quinton Jackson

Pending 2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Frankie Edgar +200* vs Jose Aldo

Pending 2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rashad Evans -440* vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

and

Pending 12/9/12 1:00pm NFL Football 106 Washington Redskins -1½ -125* vs Baltimore Ravens

Pending 12/9/12 1:00pm NFL Football 108 Cleveland Browns -6½ -120* vs Kansas City Chiefs

Pending 12/9/12 1:00pm NFL Football 120 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7 -115* vs Philadelphia Eagles

Pending 12/9/12 1:00pm NFL Football 124 Cincinnati Bengals -2½ -145* vs Dallas Cowboys

Pending 12/8/12 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1202 Rory MacDonald -280* vs BJ Penn

Pending 12/8/12 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1501 Mike Easton -255* vs Raphael Assuncao

Pending 12/8/12 6:30pm UFC Fighting 1702 Daron Cruickshank -150* vs Henry Martinez

Pending 12/8/12 5:30pm UFC Fighting 1902 Dennis Siver -290* vs Nam Phan

some nice future UFC fights to bet on too, no way Palhares should be +180 against Lombard.

 
'modogg said:
UFC cards starts soon, and is on Fox tonight at 8. I don't have real strong feelings on too many plays tonight, but will likely add some when the card starts and i get a chance to enjoy it. I guess the plays i like the best for now are Diaz +135, and Easton -245. Njiem -180 and Cuishank -150 are good pays too.absolutely love the ability to parlay NFL and UFC on 5dimes, big :thumbup: to them. 2 i have in for now:Pending 12/9/12 1:00pm NFL Football 106 Washington Redskins -1½ -125* vs Baltimore Ravens Pending 12/9/12 1:00pm NFL Football 120 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -350* vs Philadelphia Eagles Pending 12/9/12 4:05pm NFL Football 126 San Francisco 49ers -550* vs Miami Dolphins Pending 12/9/12 4:25pm NFL Football 128 New York Giants -235* vs New Orleans Saints Pending 12/9/12 4:25pm NFL Football 130 Seattle Seahawks -485* vs Arizona Cardinals Pending 12/8/12 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Alexander Gustafsson -250* vs Mauricio Rua Pending 12/8/12 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1202 Rory MacDonald -280* vs BJ Penn Pending 12/8/12 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1501 Mike Easton -255* vs Raphael Assuncao Pending 12/8/12 7:00pm UFC Fighting 1602 Ramsey Nijem -215* vs Joe Proctor Pending 12/8/12 6:30pm UFC Fighting 1702 Daron Cruickshank -150* vs Henry Martinez Pending 12/8/12 5:30pm UFC Fighting 1902 Dennis Siver -290* vs Nam Phan Pending 12/8/12 5:00pm UFC Fighting 2002 Scott Jorgensen -255* vs John Albert Pending 12/29/12 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1401 Alan Belcher +110* vs Yushin Okami Pending 1/19/13 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1001 Michael Bisping +100* vs Vitor Belfort Pending 1/26/13 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1301 Glover Teixeira -280* vs Quinton Jackson Pending 2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Frankie Edgar +200* vs Jose Aldo Pending 2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rashad Evans -440* vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Pending 12/9/12 1:00pm NFL Football 106 Washington Redskins -1½ -125* vs Baltimore Ravens Pending 12/9/12 1:00pm NFL Football 108 Cleveland Browns -6½ -120* vs Kansas City Chiefs Pending 12/9/12 1:00pm NFL Football 120 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7 -115* vs Philadelphia Eagles Pending 12/9/12 1:00pm NFL Football 124 Cincinnati Bengals -2½ -145* vs Dallas Cowboys Pending 12/8/12 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1202 Rory MacDonald -280* vs BJ Penn Pending 12/8/12 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1501 Mike Easton -255* vs Raphael Assuncao Pending 12/8/12 6:30pm UFC Fighting 1702 Daron Cruickshank -150* vs Henry Martinez Pending 12/8/12 5:30pm UFC Fighting 1902 Dennis Siver -290* vs Nam Phan some nice future UFC fights to bet on too, no way Palhares should be +180 against Lombard.
Click to expand...
Otis? :lmao:
 
'Doctor Detroit said:
'modogg said:
UFC cards starts soon, and is on Fox tonight at 8. I don't have real strong feelings on too many plays tonight, but will likely add some when the card starts and i get a chance to enjoy it. I guess the plays i like the best for now are Diaz +135, and Easton -245. Njiem -180 and Cuishank -150 are good pays too.absolutely love the ability to parlay NFL and UFC on 5dimes, big :thumbup: to them. 2 i have in for now:Pending 12/9/12 1:00pm NFL Football 106 Washington Redskins -1½ -125* vs Baltimore Ravens Pending 12/9/12 1:00pm NFL Football 120 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -350* vs Philadelphia Eagles Pending 12/9/12 4:05pm NFL Football 126 San Francisco 49ers -550* vs Miami Dolphins Pending 12/9/12 4:25pm NFL Football 128 New York Giants -235* vs New Orleans Saints Pending 12/9/12 4:25pm NFL Football 130 Seattle Seahawks -485* vs Arizona Cardinals Pending 12/8/12 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Alexander Gustafsson -250* vs Mauricio Rua Pending 12/8/12 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1202 Rory MacDonald -280* vs BJ Penn Pending 12/8/12 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1501 Mike Easton -255* vs Raphael Assuncao Pending 12/8/12 7:00pm UFC Fighting 1602 Ramsey Nijem -215* vs Joe Proctor Pending 12/8/12 6:30pm UFC Fighting 1702 Daron Cruickshank -150* vs Henry Martinez Pending 12/8/12 5:30pm UFC Fighting 1902 Dennis Siver -290* vs Nam Phan Pending 12/8/12 5:00pm UFC Fighting 2002 Scott Jorgensen -255* vs John Albert Pending 12/29/12 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1401 Alan Belcher +110* vs Yushin Okami Pending 1/19/13 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1001 Michael Bisping +100* vs Vitor Belfort Pending 1/26/13 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1301 Glover Teixeira -280* vs Quinton Jackson Pending 2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Frankie Edgar +200* vs Jose Aldo Pending 2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rashad Evans -440* vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Pending 12/9/12 1:00pm NFL Football 106 Washington Redskins -1½ -125* vs Baltimore Ravens Pending 12/9/12 1:00pm NFL Football 108 Cleveland Browns -6½ -120* vs Kansas City Chiefs Pending 12/9/12 1:00pm NFL Football 120 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7 -115* vs Philadelphia Eagles Pending 12/9/12 1:00pm NFL Football 124 Cincinnati Bengals -2½ -145* vs Dallas Cowboys Pending 12/8/12 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1202 Rory MacDonald -280* vs BJ Penn Pending 12/8/12 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1501 Mike Easton -255* vs Raphael Assuncao Pending 12/8/12 6:30pm UFC Fighting 1702 Daron Cruickshank -150* vs Henry Martinez Pending 12/8/12 5:30pm UFC Fighting 1902 Dennis Siver -290* vs Nam Phan some nice future UFC fights to bet on too, no way Palhares should be +180 against Lombard.
Click to expand...
Otis? :lmao:
Click to expand...
yeah, i usually don't play the big parlays like that, but the 1st one cashes at $29,000 or something. Good luck to me collecting that from 5dimes i am guessing (though they always have been good), but these are the fun one's. i actually have 6 other parlays in with maybe 3 legs or so.
 
'Good said:
'sporthenry said:
Duke/Temple U76 2H. Have to figure Duke will take the air out of the ball at some point.
Click to expand...
K once had Redick in up 40 on Texas with less than two minutes to go, so, who knows.
Click to expand...
Well I expect Temple to keep it close enough (around 10-15) so K will take the air out of the ball. And Redick was also having a career day in the form of 41 points. I believe when Kobe put up 81, they still had him in there at the end of a 20+ point game.
 
'nittanylion said:
Army/Navy UNDER 56(-120): This game has ugly written all over it. Two pure option teams with terrible defenses. The thing is, when it's option team vs option team, they tend to defend the run better, due to familiarity, as it's exactly the rush offense they go up against every day in practice. The atheletes are of comparable athleticism and talent on both sides of the ball, no discernable advantage there, but it's Army/Navy, so they're obviously going to give it their all, and when the two teams are statistically close (check) and statistically bad (check), the results tend to be close, and the score tends to be low. I think the odds that these two combine to score 8 TD's between them is slim to none.
Click to expand...
Nice call here. Those running plays on both sides do a nice job of eating up time.
 
'Leroy Hoard said:
'nittanylion said:
Army/Navy UNDER 56(-120): This game has ugly written all over it. Two pure option teams with terrible defenses. The thing is, when it's option team vs option team, they tend to defend the run better, due to familiarity, as it's exactly the rush offense they go up against every day in practice. The atheletes are of comparable athleticism and talent on both sides of the ball, no discernable advantage there, but it's Army/Navy, so they're obviously going to give it their all, and when the two teams are statistically close (check) and statistically bad (check), the results tend to be close, and the score tends to be low. I think the odds that these two combine to score 8 TD's between them is slim to none.
Click to expand...
Nice call here. Those running plays on both sides do a nice job of eating up time.
Click to expand...
I tailed too and am thankful...but yikes these guys blow all sorts of opportunities. I guess that is part of the reason we played it. I was cracking up when they said they needed to get to the 20 for a chance at a FG before half :lmao: ...then I was like :mellow:
 
Sharps, yo... W14

BALTIMORE AT WASHINGTON:

This game opened at pick-em, but was bet up to Washington -2.5 due to last weekend’s action. Baltimore was exposed again as a team that struggles vs. playoff caliber teams. Washington might have established themselves as a playoff caliber team with a Monday Night win over the New York Giants. It’s telling that the line STOPPED at -2.5 rather than going all the way to the key number of -3. We’re hearing that sharps would come in on Baltimore with the full field goal. Sharps aren’t as pessimistic about Robert Griffin III now as they were before the season started. He’s earned his stripes. He just hasn’t earned to right to lay the full three to a playoff team yet. The sharps liked Washington at -2 or less, but would take Baltimore at +3. If the line freezes at 2.5, sharps will be heavily involved with Baltimore +8.5 in two-team teasers because it moves past both the 3 and the 7 with a six-point teaser adjustment.

KANSAS CITY AT CLEVELAND:

Sharps made a move on Cleveland here, which is surprising because that’s against their general flow when it comes to non-contenders. Cleveland opened at -5, but is not -6.5. The Browns are not a public team, so this wasn’t a matter of taking a position before square money came in. There was some anti-Chiefs sentiment, but our sources say this was mostly because of Cleveland’s improved play of late. Their win over Pittsburgh looked better after those Steelers with Charlie Batch beat Baltimore. We hear that sharp money would come in on the dog were the line to climb one more half-point all the way to the critical number of seven.

SAN DIEGO AT PITTSBURGH:

This line went up very recently because it was only announced Thursday that Ben Roethlisberger was given the go-ahead to play. Oddsmakers posted Pittsburgh -7 to see what the money did. Sharps hit the Steelers right away against the fading Chargers. The line is now -7.5 or -8 as we go to press. That will put the Steelers in the teaser window too…which oddsmakers don’t want to see because the public will love Pittsburgh at full strength against a slumping visitor.

TENNESSEE AT INDIANAPOLIS:

Not much interest in this one. Indy opened at -5.5, and it’s either sat there or shaded down to -5 through the course of the week. Sharp affection for the Colts would have moved the line to at least six in advance of public money on this recent media darling. We’re hearing that sharps prefer the dog, and are waiting to see if they can get +6 or better after square money hits the board. If they have to settle for +5.5 on game day, they will.

NY JETS AT JACKSONVILLE:

The Jets opened at -3, but the line was bet down to Jets -2.5. We’ve told you in the past that it usually takes a lot of money to move off the key number of three. That may not be the case here because oddsmakers weren’t sure initially if they were overstating the Jets case at that number. Sharps do prefer the home underdog, because there hasn’t been a buyback toward the key number. And, sharps will really like having the Jags in teasers from what we hear. They don’t trust the Jets’ offense with Mark Sanchez, and want to take advantage of that however they can. Jacksonville is the sharp side in this game. The total is down from 39.5 to 38.5 or 38, one of the few Over/Under tendencies being shown by sharps early. Weather just isn’t a factor this year like it’s been in the past. We’re hearing that sharps believe oddsmakers have had time to hone in on the right totals this deep into the season. Only weather or injury news would create an influx of sharp money.

CHICAGO AT MINNESOTA:

The interest here has been on the total, as an opener of 40.5 is down to 39. That’s obviously not weather related in a dome. We here the stat guys are expecting a defensive game similar to the 38-point effort these teams had recently…one where Chicago scored some easy points off turnovers. Chicago -3 has stood pat

ATLANTA AT CAROLINA:

Atlanta has opened at -3.5 and stayed there, similar to what we saw when they were hosting the New Orleans Saints recently. If a line opens a half point above a key number (particularly 3!) and doesn’t move, that tells you the favorite is the sharp side. If the Wise Guys wanted Carolina, they would have gladly pounded the dog at the hook because three is such a common final margin. Sharps wanting a dog will wait at many numbers hoping for something better, but NOT at 3.5, 7.5, or 10.5. Sharps don’t trust Cam Newton with Power Ratings suggesting Atlanta -4 or -4.5 is a better number.

PHILADELPHIA AT TAMPA BAY:

Side and total action here, seemingly keyed by a good Sunday Night outing from quarterback Nick Foles of Philadelphia. Tampa Bay opened at -8.5, but is down to -7.5. The total opened at 45.5 but is now up to 47 or 47.5, with even some early 48’s getting tested. Tampa Bay’s defense is showing signs of fatigue, and sharps now believe Foles can move the ball vs. a mediocre defense. We are hearing that sharp money would come in on Tampa Bay at -7. And, we’re also hearing that Tampa Bay is a popular teaser choice for two-teamers because the move crosses the 3 and the 7. A lot of teaser options this week.

ST. LOUIS AT BUFFALO:

Not much interest here. Buffalo opened at -3 and has stayed there. The Rams have impressed the sharps in their recent battles with San Francisco. But, they don’t want to ask the Rams to play well on the road vs. a non-conference team right after an overtime war. Sharps will fade public money if this line moves on game day.

DALLAS AT CINCINNATI:

Another game where the line has been sitting on the home team -3 all week. Sharps have really fallen out of favor with the Cowboys recently because of poor home outings vs. Cleveland, Washington, and Philadelphia. They’re not ready to trust the Bengals at this price because the team is so inconsistent from series to series. It will be a pass unless the public moves the line on game day (possible because this is a prominent early TV matchup)…then sharps will fade the public.

MIAMI AT SAN FRANCISCO:

The 49ers opened at -10.5. Sharps jumped on Miami to bring the line back to the key number. We mentioned earlier that sharps won’t wait on a dog at +3.5, +7.5, or +10.5. They take the hoop quickly if it’s offered on a dog they prefer. The total has been bet down from 40 to 39 in what’s expected to be a defensive struggle.

NEW ORLEANS AT NY GIANTS:

Some interest on the NY Giants at the opener of -4.5. We’re now seeing -5 in most places. That’s not near a key number…and there wasn’t enough passion to drive the Giants up to -6. The Saints have extra preparation time in a Thursday vs. Monday situation. That tempered what might have been bigger enthusiasm for the G-Men.

ARIZONA AT SEATTLE:

This line has been frozen solid at Seattle -10 and 35 all week. It’s not expected to be a highly bet game from the public. Seattle might make the playoffs, but they haven’t captured the public’s fancy yet. The East Coast media is more obsessed with Luck and RGIII right now, so Russell Wilson is staying under the radar. Sharps think this game is properly priced, and will only come in to fade public money if any shows up.

DETROIT AT GREEN BAY:

The main interest here has been on the total. The opener of 52.5 was bet down to 50.5. We’re hearing that’s because the first meeting was more defensive than had been expected even though it was played indoors. We’re outdoors, at night this time…which could help defenses even if the Winter has been mild so far. The team side looks to be setting up as a tug-of-war with Green Bay -6.5 backers and Detroit +7 backers.
Click to expand...
 
5-1 so far on the UFC card (though that 1 loss kills the 2 parlays i had, stupid Easton :thumbdown: ). My picks for the rest of the way, nothing too big:

Matt Brown +145

Rory McDonald -270

Gustaffoson -220

Diaz +145

 
Getting the fight tonight, rolling Marquez +200 for 1U for a little action.

Enjoy the Boxing/UFC/Heisman/BBall tonight gents.

 
Threw 0.5u on Te'o +250 just to make watching this a little bit interesting

 
Last edited by a moderator:
'modogg said:
5-1 so far on the UFC card (though that 1 loss kills the 2 parlays i had, stupid Easton :thumbdown: ). My picks for the rest of the way, nothing too big:Matt Brown +145Rory McDonald -270Gustaffoson -220Diaz +145
Click to expand...
:whistle:ETA: not on the popular play here for the last one. Diaz is at +170 and the money keeps coming in on Henderson. It will certainly be close, and either guy can win, but at +170 Diaz is a good value
 
Last edited by a moderator:
The SYSTEM is only .500 since I started posting but...WE MOVE ON. This week it spit out MINNIE and DALLAS. I like Minnie n particular.

Season win percentage is down to 65%.

OMG HTH TIA!

 
Dwayne Allen (Colts) Total Receptions - Must Play

Under 3.5 (-120)

Kenny Britt (Titans) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 3 (-125)

Jake Locker (Titans) Total Completions - Must Play

Over 20.5 (-105)

2

Marcedes Lewis (Jaguars) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 3 (-120)

1.25

Shonn Greene (Jets) Total Rushing Yards - Must Play

Over 64.5 (-115)

Tony Moeaki (Chiefs) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 2.5 (even)

1.5

Pierre Garcon (Redskins) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 3.5 (-150)

Robert Griffin III (Redskins) Total Passing Yards - Must Play

Over 211.5 (-115)

Torrey Smith (Ravens) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 3.5 (-120)

4

Mikel Leshoure (Lions) Total Rushing Yards - Must Play

Under 66.5 (-115)

AJ Green (Bengals) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 5.5 (-130)

Dez Bryant (Cowboys) Total Receptions - Must Play)

Over 4.5 (-130)

Chris Givens (Rams) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 4 (-115)

.75

Josh Freeman (Buccaneers) Total Completions - Must Play

Under 19 (-105)

Kyle Rudolph (Vikings) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 4 (-140)

Brandon Marshall (Bears) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 6.5 (-115)

Drew Brees (Saints) Total Completions - Must Play

Under 26.5 (-115)

Greg Olsen (Panthers) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 3.5 (-155)

 
'modogg said:
'modogg said:
5-1 so far on the UFC card (though that 1 loss kills the 2 parlays i had, stupid Easton :thumbdown: ). My picks for the rest of the way, nothing too big:Matt Brown +145Rory McDonald -270Gustaffoson -220Diaz +145
Click to expand...
:whistle:ETA: not on the popular play here for the last one. Diaz is at +170 and the money keeps coming in on Henderson. It will certainly be close, and either guy can win, but at +170 Diaz is a good value
Click to expand...
:no: caught betting with my heart again. Oh well, 3-1 not too bad, 8-2 for the card not too bad either
 
'TheGooRoo said:
There are some nice plays here, good work. What do you attribute your struggles this season compared to previous years?
Click to expand...
Ya know I am not sure, I am not a system guy so I make plays based on my knowledge and research each week, but I was trying to figure this out also and think I may have found it.I have always done 4 things when doing my research and that is the majority of my plays and then there are a handful of "Leshoure" plays a year.I use player history, positional player points against from opposing team, positional points for, and then I use a site projections to "check" to make sure my thoughts are on the same page. I think in the past the projections had to be at least 1 or 2 over the prop I was making, IE if going over 3.5 I wanted to see a 5 in there for the projections. I am not sure I followed that as closely this year. That maybe forcing some Thursday Night plays in which the unders and game themselves have all been disappointing from a FF perspective. I am -2.82 unit on Thursday night and that is with hitting a Britt bet for 3.3 units.ETA also what do you mean struggles I am up a whole .02 units this year :excited: If you were betting $500 a play you would be up $10 by now
 
Last edited by a moderator:
'swirvenirvin said:
'TheGooRoo said:
There are some nice plays here, good work. What do you attribute your struggles this season compared to previous years?
Click to expand...
Ya know I am not sure, I am not a system guy so I make plays based on my knowledge and research each week, but I was trying to figure this out also and think I may have found it.I have always done 4 things when doing my research and that is the majority of my plays and then there are a handful of "Leshoure" plays a year.I use player history, positional player points against from opposing team, positional points for, and then I use a site projections to "check" to make sure my thoughts are on the same page. I think in the past the projections had to be at least 1 or 2 over the prop I was making, IE if going over 3.5 I wanted to see a 5 in there for the projections. I am not sure I followed that as closely this year. That maybe forcing some Thursday Night plays in which the unders and game themselves have all been disappointing from a FF perspective. I am -2.82 unit on Thursday night and that is with hitting a Britt bet for 3.3 units.ETA also what do you mean struggles I am up a whole .02 units this year :excited: If you were betting $500 a play you would be up $10 by now
Click to expand...
I made sure to say struggles compared to previous years! You sure like this Leshoure play huh? It's pretty much your play of the year and IMO I don't even think it's a top 5 play on your card. Is it just based on the premise that Bell will play more and/or Detroit will be down big?? We know Detroit doesn't like to run, but Leshoure just had 84 against GB a few weeks ago. He is no Peterson, but AP just gouged them for 210 last week. Seems like there could be some weather conditions that may lead Detroit to mix in a few more carries than usual too.
 
'TheGooRoo said:
'swirvenirvin said:
'TheGooRoo said:
There are some nice plays here, good work. What do you attribute your struggles this season compared to previous years?
Click to expand...
Ya know I am not sure, I am not a system guy so I make plays based on my knowledge and research each week, but I was trying to figure this out also and think I may have found it.I have always done 4 things when doing my research and that is the majority of my plays and then there are a handful of "Leshoure" plays a year.I use player history, positional player points against from opposing team, positional points for, and then I use a site projections to "check" to make sure my thoughts are on the same page. I think in the past the projections had to be at least 1 or 2 over the prop I was making, IE if going over 3.5 I wanted to see a 5 in there for the projections. I am not sure I followed that as closely this year. That maybe forcing some Thursday Night plays in which the unders and game themselves have all been disappointing from a FF perspective. I am -2.82 unit on Thursday night and that is with hitting a Britt bet for 3.3 units.ETA also what do you mean struggles I am up a whole .02 units this year :excited: If you were betting $500 a play you would be up $10 by now
Click to expand...
I made sure to say struggles compared to previous years! You sure like this Leshoure play huh? It's pretty much your play of the year and IMO I don't even think it's a top 5 play on your card. Is it just based on the premise that Bell will play more and/or Detroit will be down big?? We know Detroit doesn't like to run, but Leshoure just had 84 against GB a few weeks ago. He is no Peterson, but AP just gouged them for 210 last week. Seems like there could be some weather conditions that may lead Detroit to mix in a few more carries than usual too.
Click to expand...
Yeah, i don't know if I would stick with the leshoure play. If GR is against it it is best to play it lightly. Of course.... I remember a few years ago when our very own GR was backing Celek under plays when Kevin Kolb first QB'd the Eagles team, and somebody on this board was sticking with Celek overs... Man, i still am proud of those, nice remembering 3-4 bets from 3 or so years ago that I can be happy about. Those were the good old days when I still could bet something on sportsbook. So GR has been known to go 99-1 or whatever, just hope Leshoure is his 1, and not on the wrong end of those other 99
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Ministry of Pain
Texas floods
2
Replies
62
Views
3K
Mrs. Rannous
Mrs. Rannous
scorchy
Any banking guys that can offer solutions to a vexing issue?
Replies
31
Views
660
Mrs. Rannous
Mrs. Rannous
Skipdog77
Walking Style, what say you?
Replies
31
Views
399
FarFromHome
FarFromHome

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 16 (members: 0, guests: 16)
Back
Top