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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (5 Viewers)

'modogg said:
'TheGooRoo said:
'swirvenirvin said:
'TheGooRoo said:
There are some nice plays here, good work. What do you attribute your struggles this season compared to previous years?
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Ya know I am not sure, I am not a system guy so I make plays based on my knowledge and research each week, but I was trying to figure this out also and think I may have found it.I have always done 4 things when doing my research and that is the majority of my plays and then there are a handful of "Leshoure" plays a year.I use player history, positional player points against from opposing team, positional points for, and then I use a site projections to "check" to make sure my thoughts are on the same page. I think in the past the projections had to be at least 1 or 2 over the prop I was making, IE if going over 3.5 I wanted to see a 5 in there for the projections. I am not sure I followed that as closely this year. That maybe forcing some Thursday Night plays in which the unders and game themselves have all been disappointing from a FF perspective. I am -2.82 unit on Thursday night and that is with hitting a Britt bet for 3.3 units.ETA also what do you mean struggles I am up a whole .02 units this year :excited: If you were betting $500 a play you would be up $10 by now
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I made sure to say struggles compared to previous years! You sure like this Leshoure play huh? It's pretty much your play of the year and IMO I don't even think it's a top 5 play on your card. Is it just based on the premise that Bell will play more and/or Detroit will be down big?? We know Detroit doesn't like to run, but Leshoure just had 84 against GB a few weeks ago. He is no Peterson, but AP just gouged them for 210 last week. Seems like there could be some weather conditions that may lead Detroit to mix in a few more carries than usual too.
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Yeah, i don't know if I would stick with the leshoure play. If GR is against it it is best to play it lightly. Of course.... I remember a few years ago when our very own GR was backing Celek under plays when Kevin Kolb first QB'd the Eagles team, and somebody on this board was sticking with Celek overs... Man, i still am proud of those, nice remembering 3-4 bets from 3 or so years ago that I can be happy about. Those were the good old days when I still could bet something on sportsbook. So GR has been known to go 99-1 or whatever, just hope Leshoure is his 1, and not on the wrong end of those other 99
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Should have been more clear. I don't see it as an over play at this point, but it likely won't make it on my card, which is a far cry from it being Swirv's POY.
 
'TheGooRoo said:
'swirvenirvin said:
'TheGooRoo said:
There are some nice plays here, good work. What do you attribute your struggles this season compared to previous years?
Click to expand...
Ya know I am not sure, I am not a system guy so I make plays based on my knowledge and research each week, but I was trying to figure this out also and think I may have found it.I have always done 4 things when doing my research and that is the majority of my plays and then there are a handful of "Leshoure" plays a year.I use player history, positional player points against from opposing team, positional points for, and then I use a site projections to "check" to make sure my thoughts are on the same page. I think in the past the projections had to be at least 1 or 2 over the prop I was making, IE if going over 3.5 I wanted to see a 5 in there for the projections. I am not sure I followed that as closely this year. That maybe forcing some Thursday Night plays in which the unders and game themselves have all been disappointing from a FF perspective. I am -2.82 unit on Thursday night and that is with hitting a Britt bet for 3.3 units.ETA also what do you mean struggles I am up a whole .02 units this year :excited: If you were betting $500 a play you would be up $10 by now
Click to expand...
I made sure to say struggles compared to previous years! You sure like this Leshoure play huh? It's pretty much your play of the year and IMO I don't even think it's a top 5 play on your card. Is it just based on the premise that Bell will play more and/or Detroit will be down big?? We know Detroit doesn't like to run, but Leshoure just had 84 against GB a few weeks ago. He is no Peterson, but AP just gouged them for 210 last week. Seems like there could be some weather conditions that may lead Detroit to mix in a few more carries than usual too.
Click to expand...
Yes I think Bell is either equal or get more carries than Leshoure this week. Even if that is true Leshoure could obviously still break a few so there is definitely some risk.Also just a side note on that I really tried to avoid trying to guess if a team will be up or down big. Obviously this comes into play a ton for the result of the play, but if I knew what the potential outcome was I wouldn't be wasting my time giving up 15% juice on props!
 
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Damn fellas, LHUCKS started a PAC 12 thread asking how Kansas would do against a real conference.

Colorado loses by 36 lol

 
Tease for tomorrow: 6 point 2 teamer, ties reduce: Steelers -1.5, Bucs -1.5 for +100. Throwing 2U at this.

BOL tomorrow you guys.

 
Steelers look to me like the most solid leg to build around today...

1.5u Ravens +8.5 / Steelers -2...as a fan, I'm loving the 'skins recent run, but Ravens are NOTORIOUSLY good at bouncing back from a loss, and the 'skins are riding a 3 game win streak, all vs Divisional Opponents, and although the Ravens are a geographic 'rival', this is a prime letdown spot, IMO. Can't survive on adrenaline forever. Crappy weather to boot, and if it's down to rush offense vs rush defense, I don't see how the Ravens don't keep this thing close, or win outright. Really worried about Griff today, even with the depleted Ravens D. If the weather conditions force a run-centric game plan by the 'skins, he's going to take some hits, and it's the Ravens physical style to look for, and take, the kill shot. I can't remember the last time the 'skins won 3 straight, much less 4, and even with all the hype surrounding their recent success, this short trip down I-95 is going result in a partisan crowd. As a season ticket holder who sells his seats through a broker, I can tell you that thousands of these tickets were sold to Ravens fans before the season began, and even more after the 'skins were en route to 3-6 before this recent streak...

Looking for more legs I like...

Thoughts on Week 14:

I really, really like the Titans today. Line moved from +5.5 to +5, and now back to +5.5. Hoping it will move further south, as the Colts are becoming a public favorite. Colts are a great story, but aren't blowing people out - this is the biggest margin they've been favored by this year, and only have 3 wins by 6 or more points so far. Statistically, the Titans offense is as good as the Colts and their Defense is better. The only thing getting in the Titans way is turnovers, and the Colts aren't a Defense that forces turnovers, so if the Titans can limit their own mistakes, they have an excellent chance at keeping this close, or outright winning...

Man, I want to play the Jags as a 3 point home dog. The Jets suck...but I don't know whether I can trust the Jags enough...

Man, I want to play the Vikings, too, as a 3 point home dog, but just don't trust 'em either. Vikings are very solid at home, the Bears historically struggle in Minnesota, and Bears D is banged up. Thought the Vikes would cover @ Chicago a few weeks back, but they executed a stupid game plan, came out throwing instead of pounding with AP, and dug a hole they couldn't get out of...looks like they've learned their lesson in recent games...

Same with the Panthers. Folks are betting them, though. My line just moved from +3.5 to +3...

I think the Eagles are starting to get comfortable with Foles and Bryce Brown, and there are some contrarian statistical situations involving teams that have lost 7 in a row covering spreads of 7 or more, and it's pretty crazy to see the Bucs favored by this much over anyone, but it's hard to think they can't at least just WIN the game, which makes for an attractive teaser leg...

Under normal circumstances I'd think the Bengals could beat the Cowboys handily, but with this scandal thing, it just adds another thing into the equation. Bengals are in a nice groove, albeit vs less than stellar competition, but Dallas' recent success hasn't come vs good teams either, and they've struggled to win, while the Bengals seem to be rounding into form. Dallas is banged up on D, and the Bengals have a better D regardless, and are at home. I'll probably decide at the last minute to play the Bengals, especially since I just watched this move from -3.5 to -3, which is typical.

Late games later?

Good Luck!

 
Cripes, the Titans line has moved in the wrong direction, +5.5 to +5, back to +5.5, and quickly down to 4.5.

The more I look at it, the more I like the Vikes today, just not confident enough to take 'em straight.

3u: Titans +10.5 / Vikings +9

Good Luck!

 
CBB

Akron +9 1/2

Fresno St. +7

43-35-1 +4.4 units

NFL

Browns -6 2 units from earlier in the week

Giants -5

Teased in 7's and 6's

Browns

Steelers

Bucs

Packers

Have a #### ton of parlays riding at Mandalay. Need to hit after getting destroyed at the tables yesterday. Go team.

 
I have Panthers, Cowboys, Packers, Tampa by 2s and then have Browns, Rams and Colts sprinkled in some 3 legs with those first four. 11 plays. Not sure why I don't like the Steelers or Ravens today in teaser legs.

 
finally seeing the Eagles looking like they care to be playing today:

2nd half:

Eagles +7 and whatever else i can find

 
and realbettors doing a great job today keeping the live betting on soccer up to date. Who the hell would want to bet on the NFL anyway????

 
and i meant to post this after the Eagles-Saints game, but i forgot. i don't play many player props at all anymore, but i would have played every Maclin under for the rest of the year. just looks like the guy doesn't even want to play this season.

 
I would have bet a lot of money on Diaz last night, too. I was on the other side when he destroyed Jim Miller and vowed to bet on him next time no matter what.

 
'ChainsawU said:
I would have bet a lot of money on Diaz last night, too. I was on the other side when he destroyed Jim Miller and vowed to bet on him next time no matter what.
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you win some, you lose some. it seems like he got blasted real good in the 1st, and couldn't see out of his left eye the rest of the fight. that Miller fight was a big reason why i thought he would do well last night too
 
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