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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (3 Viewers)

LMAO at James Franklin yelling at the big fat defensive lineman cause their CB who was returning an INT ran into him and fell like he hit a brick wall.

 
'TobiasFunke said:
'Angry Beavers said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
Doing a Three team teaser: Skins/Packers/Ravens

Will have more on Ravens side for sure. I am in the minority I guess but I like the Vikings some. Texans? What the hell are they gonna do? Can't trust them at all but we'll see where that number goes.
Click to expand...
Why the Ravens love? I think Indy may have just played their playoff game yesterday, and that concerns me from the Indy side, but Baltimore has looked pretty poor for the last several weeks. Baltimore has all the playoff experience in this matchup and Indy has relatively little with the current nucleus ( minus Wayne) BUT Indy is playing with house money at this point and while they might just be happy to be there, they may also be able to play loose enough to pull the upset. First impression is Indy +the points here.
Click to expand...
Am I the only one who thinks Indy is simply a mediocre football team who has gotten lucky and had an incredibly soft schedule?

If you're an advanced stat guy, they rank near the bottom of the league in DVOA (those are Week 16 rankings, they'll improve a bit after Week 17 but not that much).

If you're more of a traditional stat guy, they have have a -30 point differential, which is mediocre Dolphins/Cowboys type territory. The are the only team in the league to finish above .500 with a negative point differential.

If you prefer to look at game results, find me the road win on their schedule that makes you think they can hang in a road playoff game.

To me the -6.5 line almost looks too good to be true.
Click to expand...
You are right when it comes to INDY on the road, but look at Baltimore for a second. They are 10-6 with three point wins over KC and SD. In their last 5 games they lost to Pittsburgh and Denver at home and Washington on the road. This is after winning @ SD and @ Pitt by 3 each time. They then went out and beat the NYG who truly were bi-polar this year. That is a nice win for sure, but I am not certain that signals that Baltimore is suddenly the same team that beat NE in week 3. In fact, who has Baltimore beaten at home this year outside of that NE game?A large part of that -30 point differential is losing to Chicago in week 1 ( Luck's first NFL Start) by 20, the Jets by 26 in a clear letdown spot after defeating GB, and losing @ NE by 35. I think in this case the point differential stat is overblown.

I am not saying that INDY is for certain going to walk into Baltimore and get a win next Sunday, just saying that it would not surprise me if this game comes down to the last couple of minutes and if that is the case I think taking the points would be the way to go. Of course, I just read an article where most of the public outside of Baltimore is pulling for INDY and the Pagano story so maybe laying the points is not such a bad idea afterall. :shuked:

 
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Another strong play(s) I like tomorrow is anything involving the over in the Purdue/OKie State game. Purdue has no defense and weak teams have run up big numbers on them. Probably will be highest scoring game of all the bowl games,jmo.

 
'TobiasFunke said:
'Angry Beavers said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
Doing a Three team teaser: Skins/Packers/Ravens

Will have more on Ravens side for sure. I am in the minority I guess but I like the Vikings some. Texans? What the hell are they gonna do? Can't trust them at all but we'll see where that number goes.
Click to expand...
Why the Ravens love? I think Indy may have just played their playoff game yesterday, and that concerns me from the Indy side, but Baltimore has looked pretty poor for the last several weeks. Baltimore has all the playoff experience in this matchup and Indy has relatively little with the current nucleus ( minus Wayne) BUT Indy is playing with house money at this point and while they might just be happy to be there, they may also be able to play loose enough to pull the upset. First impression is Indy +the points here.
Click to expand...
Am I the only one who thinks Indy is simply a mediocre football team who has gotten lucky and had an incredibly soft schedule?

If you're an advanced stat guy, they rank near the bottom of the league in DVOA (those are Week 16 rankings, they'll improve a bit after Week 17 but not that much).

If you're more of a traditional stat guy, they have have a -30 point differential, which is mediocre Dolphins/Cowboys type territory. The are the only team in the league to finish above .500 with a negative point differential.

If you prefer to look at game results, find me the road win on their schedule that makes you think they can hang in a road playoff game.

To me the -6.5 line almost looks too good to be true.
Click to expand...
Using home/away splits on point differential I have Balt -8.5, 2 points higher than the line. Record wise it is 6-2 Balt vs 4-4 Indy, for those teasing the game down.
 
'Angry Beavers said:
'TobiasFunke said:
'Angry Beavers said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
Doing a Three team teaser: Skins/Packers/Ravens

Will have more on Ravens side for sure. I am in the minority I guess but I like the Vikings some. Texans? What the hell are they gonna do? Can't trust them at all but we'll see where that number goes.
Click to expand...
Why the Ravens love? I think Indy may have just played their playoff game yesterday, and that concerns me from the Indy side, but Baltimore has looked pretty poor for the last several weeks. Baltimore has all the playoff experience in this matchup and Indy has relatively little with the current nucleus ( minus Wayne) BUT Indy is playing with house money at this point and while they might just be happy to be there, they may also be able to play loose enough to pull the upset. First impression is Indy +the points here.
Click to expand...
Am I the only one who thinks Indy is simply a mediocre football team who has gotten lucky and had an incredibly soft schedule?

If you're an advanced stat guy, they rank near the bottom of the league in DVOA (those are Week 16 rankings, they'll improve a bit after Week 17 but not that much).

If you're more of a traditional stat guy, they have have a -30 point differential, which is mediocre Dolphins/Cowboys type territory. The are the only team in the league to finish above .500 with a negative point differential.

If you prefer to look at game results, find me the road win on their schedule that makes you think they can hang in a road playoff game.

To me the -6.5 line almost looks too good to be true.
Click to expand...
You are right when it comes to INDY on the road, but look at Baltimore for a second. They are 10-6 with three point wins over KC and SD. In their last 5 games they lost to Pittsburgh and Denver at home and Washington on the road. This is after winning @ SD and @ Pitt by 3 each time. They then went out and beat the NYG who truly were bi-polar this year. That is a nice win for sure, but I am not certain that signals that Baltimore is suddenly the same team that beat NE in week 3. In fact, who has Baltimore beaten at home this year outside of that NE game?A large part of that -30 point differential is losing to Chicago in week 1 ( Luck's first NFL Start) by 20, the Jets by 26 in a clear letdown spot after defeating GB, and losing @ NE by 35. I think in this case the point differential stat is overblown.

I am not saying that INDY is for certain going to walk into Baltimore and get a win next Sunday, just saying that it would not surprise me if this game comes down to the last couple of minutes and if that is the case I think taking the points would be the way to go. Of course, I just read an article where most of the public outside of Baltimore is pulling for INDY and the Pagano story so maybe laying the points is not such a bad idea afterall. :shuked:
Click to expand...
I'd recommend not bringing up the bolded when making an argument for Indy.
 
I hear ya Lumpy - LMAO. I'd rather have a thoughtful conversation that leads to a winner than advocate for the losing side that costs me $.

 
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'Angry Beavers said:
'TobiasFunke said:
'Angry Beavers said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
Doing a Three team teaser: Skins/Packers/Ravens

Will have more on Ravens side for sure. I am in the minority I guess but I like the Vikings some. Texans? What the hell are they gonna do? Can't trust them at all but we'll see where that number goes.
Click to expand...
Why the Ravens love? I think Indy may have just played their playoff game yesterday, and that concerns me from the Indy side, but Baltimore has looked pretty poor for the last several weeks. Baltimore has all the playoff experience in this matchup and Indy has relatively little with the current nucleus ( minus Wayne) BUT Indy is playing with house money at this point and while they might just be happy to be there, they may also be able to play loose enough to pull the upset. First impression is Indy +the points here.
Click to expand...
Am I the only one who thinks Indy is simply a mediocre football team who has gotten lucky and had an incredibly soft schedule?

If you're an advanced stat guy, they rank near the bottom of the league in DVOA (those are Week 16 rankings, they'll improve a bit after Week 17 but not that much).

If you're more of a traditional stat guy, they have have a -30 point differential, which is mediocre Dolphins/Cowboys type territory. The are the only team in the league to finish above .500 with a negative point differential.

If you prefer to look at game results, find me the road win on their schedule that makes you think they can hang in a road playoff game.

To me the -6.5 line almost looks too good to be true.
Click to expand...
You are right when it comes to INDY on the road, but look at Baltimore for a second. They are 10-6 with three point wins over KC and SD. In their last 5 games they lost to Pittsburgh and Denver at home and Washington on the road. This is after winning @ SD and @ Pitt by 3 each time. They then went out and beat the NYG who truly were bi-polar this year. That is a nice win for sure, but I am not certain that signals that Baltimore is suddenly the same team that beat NE in week 3. In fact, who has Baltimore beaten at home this year outside of that NE game?

A large part of that -30 point differential is losing to Chicago in week 1 ( Luck's first NFL Start) by 20, the Jets by 26 in a clear letdown spot after defeating GB, and losing @ NE by 35. I think in this case the point differential stat is overblown.

I am not saying that INDY is for certain going to walk into Baltimore and get a win next Sunday, just saying that it would not surprise me if this game comes down to the last couple of minutes and if that is the case I think taking the points would be the way to go. Of course, I just read an article where most of the public outside of Baltimore is pulling for INDY and the Pagano story so maybe laying the points is not such a bad idea afterall. :shuked:
Click to expand...
I can't disregard these results any more than I can disregard their 12 point win vs Houston because of the emotional return of Pagano, or their 17 point win at Jacksonville because Jacksonville is atrocious. They are all part of the picture. I don't think Baltimore are world-beaters by any stretch. But they're above average. They beat the snot out of a quality Giants team a week ago. Two weeks before that a 10-6 Washington team needed a miracle to beat them in overtime in DC. Personally I'd take any above-average NFL team at home vs. these Colts if I'm giving less than a TD. But maybe they do have some sort of winning formula this season that goes beyond simply good luck and a kind schedule.

 
'BRONG said:
Ticket#:8273769Dec 31 02:05 PM INTERNET / -1 Dec 27 11:05 PM CFBSTRAIGHT BET[241] GEORGIA TECH +10-120 (B+½)600 / 500Ticket#:8279743Dec 31 02:05 PM INTERNET / -1 Dec 28 06:49 PM CFBSTRAIGHT BET[241] GEORGIA TECH +270200 / 540
Click to expand...
I fully endorse this. Sorry man.
 
'Doctor Detroit said:
'John Bender said:
I think I like NC State a lot today.In tomorrow action, been holding this +2 Northwestern ticket for over 3 weeks. Now it's -1.5 Northwestern. Maybe I'll get cute with that.
Click to expand...
Lots of numbers moving around on today's games. Clemson, Ga Tech/USC UNDER and Ga Tech all getting love.
Click to expand...
Watching Clemson's offense vs. LSU's defense will be worth the price of admission.
 
Someone in the shart pool mentioned both Wash & Seat run very similar offenses. That usually would lean me towards leaning towards the under 45.5.

 
'Sweet Feet said:
'swirvenirvin said:
coaches to be fired before the first playoff game is now at 6 instead of 6 1/2We know Shurmur is for sure now also, which we kind of thought.Think i might jump on it. They all pretty much get fired right after right? No one would get fired after the playoffs start?
Click to expand...
hope you played this :popcorn:EDIT: just saw Gailey gone alsoNorvGaileyRomeoLovieReidShurmurExpecting Wisenhunt to be on the list soon
Click to expand...
Black Monday did not disappoint. It's an absolute bloodbath, and more coming...
 
'Leroy Hoard said:
Someone in the shart pool mentioned both Wash & Seat run very similar offenses. That usually would lean me towards leaning towards the under 45.5.
Click to expand...
Funny you should mention this, I had the total pegged quite a bit lower so I'll be on the under. Just deciding if I should bet it now or not...
 
The bet is SC third quarter. They get the ball, wind and GTech is going to have to punt into it. SC is gonna come out and open things up a bit I have a feeling. Hope I'm wrong because I can't find a line on it and I'm obviously on GT for the game.

 
'BRONG said:
The bet is SC third quarter. They get the ball, wind and GTech is going to have to punt into it. SC is gonna come out and open things up a bit I have a feeling. Hope I'm wrong because I can't find a line on it and I'm obviously on GT for the game.
Click to expand...
Pretty sure Tech has the wind. Don't you go same way 1st and 4th quarter?
 
'loser said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
'modogg said:
Holy crap there is a lot of college football left. I think i got most of DD's plays in, but I wuold like to make some money off of those games before the football season dies down to a whimper
Click to expand...
Looking into all the totals for tomorrow during the Skins/Boys game tonight. I have these two tomorrow at the moment, both bet at open:Vanderbilt -6.5

LSU -3.5 (Autoplay)

Autoplay 3-1

Sides 3-10

Totals 9-4-1
Click to expand...
iLate to the party on Vandy (-7.5, -105), but I don't care. This is my favorite play of the entire bowl season. Interesting note: NC St. has been outscored 62-21 in the first quarter of noon or 12:30 games this year, and are 1-3 in those games. I expect a similar sleepwalk here, but more likely I just Jinxed you, so sorry bout that.
Click to expand...
:banned: :banned: :banned:
 
'optionmaven said:
Another strong play(s) I like tomorrow is anything involving the over in the Purdue/OKie State game. Purdue has no defense and weak teams have run up big numbers on them. Probably will be highest scoring game of all the bowl games,jmo.
Click to expand...
With a total of 70 we'll need Purdue to probably put up 28 or so, that is sorta my worry. Might be the first bowl game where I have no action. Should have grabbed Nebraska at +10, was waiting for a hook that never came and now it's at 8.5. What I have tomorrow:Northwestern +1.5 (AUTOPLAY)USC/UM UNDER 48.5Adding Wisconsin/Stanford OVER 47.5 also.
 
'Doctor Detroit said:
'The Ref said:
Kiffin should have been fired the night of the ND game.
Click to expand...
Isn't he supposed to be some QB genius? Part of the reason I took USC was thinking Wittek was going to be efficient and he's been anything but today.
Click to expand...
Where was this USC team playing for its jobs that I was promised? But in all seriousness, this QB is supposed to be USC's future? I get missing some reads but just missing wide open throws is pretty concerning.
 
'sporthenry said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
'The Ref said:
Kiffin should have been fired the night of the ND game.
Click to expand...
Isn't he supposed to be some QB genius? Part of the reason I took USC was thinking Wittek was going to be efficient and he's been anything but today.
Click to expand...
Where was this USC team playing for its jobs that I was promised? But in all seriousness, this QB is supposed to be USC's future? I get missing some reads but just missing wide open throws is pretty concerning.
Click to expand...
I thought Lane Kiffin was playing for his job too, he better hope not.
 
'Doctor Detroit said:
'sporthenry said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
'The Ref said:
Kiffin should have been fired the night of the ND game.
Click to expand...
Isn't he supposed to be some QB genius? Part of the reason I took USC was thinking Wittek was going to be efficient and he's been anything but today.
Click to expand...
Where was this USC team playing for its jobs that I was promised? But in all seriousness, this QB is supposed to be USC's future? I get missing some reads but just missing wide open throws is pretty concerning.
Click to expand...
I thought Lane Kiffin was playing for his job too, he better hope not.
Click to expand...
:lmao: At least the under will keep me profitable on this game.
 
'sporthenry said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
'sporthenry said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
'The Ref said:
Kiffin should have been fired the night of the ND game.
Click to expand...
Isn't he supposed to be some QB genius? Part of the reason I took USC was thinking Wittek was going to be efficient and he's been anything but today.
Click to expand...
Where was this USC team playing for its jobs that I was promised? But in all seriousness, this QB is supposed to be USC's future? I get missing some reads but just missing wide open throws is pretty concerning.
Click to expand...
I thought Lane Kiffin was playing for his job too, he better hope not.
Click to expand...
:lmao: At least the under will keep me profitable on this game.
Click to expand...
Yep, both unders gonna cash.
 
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