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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (6 Viewers)

Wow, Ducks with five goals on Schneider. Didn't see that coming.Don't love that for tomorrow night though, already locked in Oil +135.

 
'southeastjerome said:
Anyone have any good props for tomorrow's conf championship games? I haven't been able to find any I really like.
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Here's one from each team. Can't promise they're any good but I'll give it a shot:Turner longest rush under 13.5 yardsKaepernick under 9 rush attemptsTorrey Smith under 68.5 receiving yardsBrady u 2.5 td passes
 
Y'all should bang that salami OVER every night until the under starts trending.I like Rud's theory about defenses and goalies being rusty.

 
Pucks tomorrow:Sharks -107Oilers +135B'hawks/Yotes O 5.5 +125gllllllllWatching Wire season 4 again, Prop Joe...damn. Love season 4 though, seasons 1,2 and 4 all pretty equal to me.

 
Yeah, nice RN. Prop Joe was always one of my top three secondary characters.Hockey bettors>friendly word of warning: avoid all NHL chalk in parlays until we figure this #### out. With all the back to back games and the rules adjustment, dogs are going to win more than usual IMO.

 
'Doctor Detroit said:
'Getzlaf15 said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
'Getzlaf15 said:
Phone says i'm in wagering thread
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My link :unsure:
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That's when I went back to room at Mirage. Rooms having major connection probs. Must have clicked wrong thread when I finally got on.
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Fax me a sandwich and a martini from the Peppermill Lounge please.
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You got it. Just cashed $322 on ducks. Preds cost me about four hun. Really liked the blues and ducks today. Gunna go freeroll the ravens ml.
 
Just a quick PSA: I finally got around to watching Archer on Truck's recommendation. When I was looking around for a good streaming site, I stumbled upon this: http://www.thedarewall.com/tv/tv-shows

I kind of live under a rock, so forgive me if that site is already well known.

It's pretty incredible. Tons of movies and TV shows for free. It kicks HULU's ass.

 
Locking in: Pats -10 (+140)Pats score at will, too many mismatches, with or without Gronk. We love Ray (?), but he's done. Hernandez and the backs kill it. Flacco can't keep up. 35-13.

 
'Guster said:
Pats at -7.5 on SB. My gut says to load up...time to look at some stats
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Alright, time for more of my overanalysis...Last 4 games for NE@home & BALaway:

NE +3.3 pts scored 1H, NE +9.8 pts scored 2H, NE +11.5 pts scored total

NE -5.5 pts allowed 1H, NE +1.0 pts scored 2H, NE -4.8 pts scored total

NE is scoring more and giving up fewer points than BAL over their last 4 games home/away.

Based on this, NE should cover the -7.5 with ease

The line for the total in this scenario should be ~53.5, so over 51 would be the bet

NE with and without Gronk:

NE's scoring is down 0.4pts in 1H, down 0.8pts in 2H and down 1.4pts/gm total

NE's D gives up 1.2pts less in 1H, 1.4pts more in 2H and is basically flat for the total game

Not really as much of a difference as I expected. One thing to note is that you can make a case for NE's D wearing down...starting off better but then giving up more points. This will be something to keep an eye on for sure if you're looking at live betting.

BAL with and without Ray Lewis:

BAL's scoring is down 1pt in 1H, up 2pts in 2H and up just over 1pt for total game

BAL's defense gives up 1.5pts more in 1H, 0.6pts less in 2H and 0.6pts more for total game

So basically, scoring is up for both teams when Ray Lewis plays with a 0.4pt edge to BAL

My suggested bets

NE 1Q -0.5

NE 1H -6

1H u26 (but this looks like a pretty tight line, play with caution)

BAL 2H +anything or BAL 2H moneyline

2H o26

Basically, I see the first half belonging to NE and the second half being pretty even.

NE scores less and gives up more in the 2nd half (vs 1st) while BAL scores a bit more and gives up less.

On the whole, NE scores more and plays better 1H D... The question will be how can NE's D hold up in the 2H and can BAL exploit that

I can see a backdoor cover on the spread by BAL

The game total looks spot on, so I would consider teasing that in whichever direction you choose with NE

 
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