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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Kansas is a better team and Self is a far, far better coach, but weird things happen in Manhattan, KS. I'm tempted to play it just because of the coach matchup, but I need to talk myself into it first. Manhattan is weird.If I ever advocate betting on Texas again will somebody please remind me that Rick Barnes is the coach? The only exception to this is when they play Kansas State because Bruce Weber is worse. Also if Kevin O'Neill gets another job.'Doctor Detroit said:I feel so dirty rooting for Texas to keep this close.
The Horns blew an 11-point second-half lead to KU in Austin on Saturday, 80% of which was on Barnes. Between Barnes, Weber, Scott Drew, and Travis Ford, the Bad Coaches division in the Big XII hasn't missed Frank Haith one bit. Bill Self's COY chances are getting screwed by the weak SOS in his coaching matchups; Hoiberg is the only Big XII benchrunner who can match wits with him. No position taken yet on Kansas -3.5 at K-State on Tuesday night, but I think the play will be the under if posted. Total should line at about 126, but K-State is going to shoot around 32% from the floor and score about 55. I'll lay the points for my share of the Oklahoma Joe's BBQ (one of Boudrain's "13 Places To Eat Before You Die") tomorrow night, but that's just friendly action among friendly K-State fans hosting the gathering.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Frostillicus
Footballguy
The Ref
Footballguy
I still don't get why more people don't move here. Sure the Summer sucks but you do get used to it and everywhere has a/c. Factor in the cost of... well.... everything and it becomes a no brainer.Figure I will start putting the picks in here in nice little parlays. Maybe one will hit and make it worth it. Not sure why i didn't think of this sooner.Nebraska+5MichiganSt+5.5Pittsburgh-6.5Flyers (Philadelphia)-105Sharks (SanJose)-115Stars (Dallas)+12510 bucks to win 561Parlay #2Nebraska+5Ohio St MLPittsburgh-6.5Blues (StLouis)Under 5.5 Blackhawks (Chicago)(-125)Predators (Nashville)+110Sharks (SanJose)Over 5.5 (Edmonton)(+110)10 bucks to win 321parlay # 3Pitt MLNebraska MLOhio ST MLBama +4Nova +11.5Wake +7Stars +11010 bucks win 643.66Parlay #4Nebraska +190OhioSt -680Louisville -730Pittsburgh -290Capitals (Washington) -160Hurricanes (Carolina)-155Lightning (TampaBay)Over 5.5 Hurricanes (Carolina)(-125)10 bucks to win 234
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nittanylion
Footballguy
Money moving towards South Carolina, now +14. FWIW, I'm on Missou, but for now it's only a lean. May bet it if the line continues to move in Missou's favor. I leaned Missou on Saturday, not sure what to make of them missing Laurence Bowers, and with Florida banged up. Florida proved on Saturday, to me at least, that they are an elite Team, but make no mistake about it, this current incarnation of the SEC = 'HAVE's" and "HAVE NOTS", and Missou is firmly in the 'have' camp, while this gamecocks team is a bottom feeder, who failed to win at home on Saturday vs a Vandy Team that's only a shade better than they are (I leaned Vandy in that game as well)...this line is a over-reaction to the Missou getting blown out at Florida, and Missou's rebounding struggles lately without Bowers, who may play tonight, although if he does, he'll be limited. Even so, Missou has far better players, and is quite deeper than the Gamecocks. Asking them to compete on the road vs one of the upper-tier Conference teams is a lot. Tigers will also have, by far, the best player on the floor, PG Phil Pressey. Tigers are returning home after an embarrassing road loss, with an opportunity to eat some home cooking vs a weak sister. I think they win by double-digits. Again, only a lean, but I'll bet it if it continues to move, and might bet it at 14 if the rest of today's card looks light and there's room.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
If you go to Covers/SBR there are threads all over, at least searchable, where people post chat transcripts with Tony. He's always like that from what I've seen posted, they're pretty funny to read 3rd person. My favorite (I'll para-phrase) was this guy who was finishing up law school going at it with Tony over reduced juice/re-load bonuses. He would say how Tony was doing this or that wrong and Tony would just go, "I'm in Costa Rica, what are you going to do about it, smart guy lawyer?" My favorite was when Tony said something like, "I send people to doorsteps to take care of punks like you."I want to sign up there now just to screw with that guy. could be entertaining.Frosty-GPJ-
Client service? The owner?? The guy has a good off-shore book vs. the competition, but seriously what a toad.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
5D has Lakers -110 to NOT make the playoffs right now. That seems like an insanely good value.
nittanylion
Footballguy
Bama +180 at RB
This is a solid play, IMO. Kentucky getting some love after putting a whipping on @ Auburn. I watched that game (had money on Auburn +10 based on it's veteran roster and outside shooting prowess)...Auburn had one of their worst shooting nights of the season, especially from 3-point range, (not forced by Kentucky so much as cold shooting) and just plain didn't show up for the 2nd half. Kentucky is a very talented bunch, but they are young, immature and lack chemistry at this stage of the season, and Alabama offers stable veteran guard play with Releford and Lacey that should give the Wildcats trouble on the road. Until I'm convinced Kentucky is starting to gel, there's every reason to bet a solid team getting points at home against them. ML is down to +165 last time I checked, I'm betting this, too.
gmbacm
Footballguy
Interesting. And you can get them at +1800 to win the west or +3500 to win championship at sportsbook.Play both sides. They miss the playoffs you win, they make the playoffs and they would have to have had a fantastic stretch and be on a high heading into the playoffs.
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Frostillicus
Footballguy
Copying this idea and went with this: 2/3/2013 6:30 PM NFL Football 102 San Francisco 49ers* -180 vs Baltimore Ravens 1/22/2013 7:00 PM College Basketball 511 Michigan State* +6 -118 vs Wisconsin 1/22/2013 7:00 PM College Basketball 513 Pittsburgh* -6½ -110 vs Providence 1/22/2013 8:30 PM College Basketball 526 Nebraska* +5 -110 vs Illinois 1/22/2013 9:00 PM College Basketball 530 Alabama* +165 vs Kentucky 1/22/2013 7:35 PM NHL Hockey 57 Philadelphia Flyers* -105 vs New Jersey Devils 1/22/2013 7:35 PM NHL Hockey 59 Dallas Stars* +125 vs Detroit Red Wings 1/22/2013 10:05 PM NHL Hockey 67 San Jose Sharks* -115 vs Edmonton OilersRisking $10.00 To Win $2,283.24 Figure if everything else hits tonight it's a good opp to hedge on the Ravens, who I am going to be on anyway.
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
I played this a couple of hours ago and just stopped in to post it. Looks like we are all thinking the same way going the parlay way:Mich St. +5.6Pitt - 6.5Alabama + 160Philly -105Dallas +125SJ/EDM O5.5 +110 20 to win 1728GLTAAB
gussy
Footballguy
I would put Nebraska in on the ML to increase the payout. They are going to win.
That's an interesting thought. I wonder what the series price would be if they start to warm up and are a 7/8 vs OKC/SA/LAC. As long as their opponents aren't that big of favorites, great chance to ensure some profit if they do make the playoffs. If they were able to upset one of those teams in the 1st round, they would only be slight dogs the rest of the western playoffs.Interesting. And you can get them at +1800 to win the west or +3500 to win championship at sportsbook.Play both sides. They miss the playoffs you win, they make the playoffs and they would have to have had a fantastic stretch and be on a high heading into the playoffs.
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bryan11joseph
Footballguy
I got this a week ago for 1u. Still seems like a good bet to take. They have an outside chance at sneaking into the playoffs though.Their recent losses continue to help!
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Yep. It's not a lock by any means. But SB has the same bet at -400.
btw, not sure I love my play last night on EDM/SJ over. sorry for those who tailed.also, FWIW, Jets and Tampa are playing 2nd road game in a row and 3rd game in 4 nights. I put a little on the Caps and Canes puck lines but both could be solid ML plays in parlays.not sure if the trends matter, but Canes/TB games have hit 6 or more goals in at least the last 10 matchups:http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nhl/matchups/g2_summary_9.htmlSo, the over there could be a decent option if you like the Canes offense to wake up. Even the Islanders scored 4 against Tampa yesterday.I guess Florida and the Blues are also in a similar situation. 2nd of B2B on road and 3rd game in 4 nights. Man, could be an ugly night. Tough to have stamina built up this early in the year.
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Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Why? I thought this made sense given that EDM had a number of their top forwards playing during the lockout which gives in turn makes the over a pretty logical play IMHO.
this is/was my thought. I'm expecting the Oilers to get off to a good start this year because of that and I feel like a breakout should be coming for their offense. Not crazy about their defense and could see them giving up some soft goals playing at home with some high expectations.Sharks are a sound team though who could control the puck a lot and limit the opportunities. These teams have generally played low scoring games against each other in the past. I'll still take a shot on it, but don't want to see some huge parlay busted as a result. It's late enough in the night that there's an opportunity to buy out or hedge if you get close.
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Thanks for sharing. I was wondering if I was missing something. As we all know, the chances of one of those big parlays coming in is small which is why the books are happy to offer em' to start with so no worries!!!!
gussy
Footballguy
AddedOhio St. -11 1/2
Frostillicus
Footballguy
F it. Kansas -3.5. Self could take a high school team and beat a Bruce Weber team.
Buying a tenth of a point rarely makes senseHTH
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
RB gave it to me free for being such a good customer
Treynwreck3
Footballguy
I would play this IF I didn't have a self-imposed moratorium against playing college basketball.
Treynwreck3
Footballguy
How did it turn out?I watched The Killing of a Chinese Bookie last night.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Where is this?
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Literally the only reason I even hesitate (and the reason this line is only 3.5) is because weird #### happens too often when Kansas goes into Manhattan. This Jayhawks team is way better than K-State this year, and I'm counting on Weber's usual complete lack of a coherent game plan to cancel out the Manhattan factor.Calculating K-State's HCA is tough because their crowd doesn't always show up. K-State's football HFA is impressive and the night crowds at Snyder are rabid, but the basketball crowd doesn't always make it to the arena. A midweek locally televised game on a crap weather day suggests the crowd will stay home, but the Jayhawks coming to town gets the freaks to come out at night. That's probably why weird stuff happens in Manhattan. When the crowd comes, they beat OU by 9. When they stay home, they beat UMKC by 8. That's the University of Missouri-Kansas City Kangaroos, currently in 6th place in the Summit Conference. I know it's a bit unorthodox to lean towards the favorite Kansas -3.5 and the UNDER 128, but the total is too damn high. KU isn't too hung up on pushing the tempo; they don't have a pure PG distributor to run an organized, perpetual break program. They look to run off steals and blocks, and occasionally Johnson or McLemore will grab a missed long 2s and make a break for it, but for the most part KU is content with throwing 6-8 passes in halfcourt to get a layup, open three, or draw a foul.
K-State is running hot on 3s (.392 in four conference games versus .348 for the season in average volume), and IMO that cools down tonight. KU defends the three really well (.316 3PT Against for the season in huge volume), and all three perimeter starters are plus defenders. K-State also depends on hitting the offensive glass, but KU has one of the best defensive rebounding rates in D-I.
A strong argument for Kansas -3.5 is free throw shooting. KU's perimeter guys are all excellent at the stripe (Releford is .893, McLemore is .881, Johnson is .800), so they can put away close leads.
Take all that with a shot of. I freely admit some of this might just be things I want to see happen tonight.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Good for those who were on a losing streak, bad for those waiting to get paid.How did it turn out?I watched The Killing of a Chinese Bookie last night.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
We need to get a Beyonce expert in here.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
BTW, Alicia Keys is saying her version of the SSB will be a "completely different song." That would lead one to think she's going north of 1:30, but who knows.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Good thought process imo, since when do new or alternate versions finish faster?
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
It's not like you can abridge the thing, right? Or speed up the tempo? Have the Ramones ever don't a SSB? I'd like to hear that.I could see it starting slow, and then going louder/normal tempo.
D in the D
Footballguy
Wings GM on local news just quoted as saying the wings have "8 regulars out of the lineup tonight" assuming helm and bertuzzi are two, that leaves six more.
D in the D
Footballguy
hey ho say can you see.....
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
WTG Stars backers.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Ericsson is one, Colaiacovo is another. I would guess Sammy as the 5th but no idea after that.
gussy
Footballguy
Added Wisconsin -5Nebraska +4 1/2 is my other play. Lot of B1G plays tonight.
gussy
Footballguy
and with that I'll tail on the Stars at +110 :(
