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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
lumpy19
Footballguy
derek245583
Footballguy
You know what I want? Is the Betting exchange back...cant remember the name of it, but i think matchbook
Is Gaudin really starting for SF? He was just hit with some charges for groping a woman in a hospital. Not sure his mental state is all there.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
I'd be worried that on the Facebook stream that other people see, similar to someone seeing, "mquinnjr likes this picture," "mquinnjr just wagered Rotation 453 - Week 1 - NFL - Patriots -7 EV at PADDYPOWER!" (Click to like).
As fun as that sounds, with friends/family/co-workers on FB, that would be uncomfortable.
lumpy19
Footballguy
Never thought about that....although everyone that knows me knows I have a gambling problem
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
I've often found that non-gamblers who know gamblers often get surprised by the frequency or amount bet though.
Most of my friends are bigger degens than I am though
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Mine is fairly under wraps. My wife knows and approves, good friends know, none of my parents do. My mom would flip out if she knew how much I bet, doubt anyone else would care.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
I need a recommendation for an online book that pays 180 for 3 team nfl teasers. Sportsbook pulled the rug out last year. Thanks ffa degenerates.
lumpy19
Footballguy
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
Damn. But thanks for answering lumpy. Are Wong bets a thing of the past then? I don't have the time or inclination to handicap, but really enjoy mindless system betting.lumpy19 said:
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
mquinnjr
Footballguy
I am going to do a "system" this season. Did it last year, and it worked out pretty well.
4 team 13-pt teaser for -120. Any time the home team is a dog for 1.5 or more points, they move into the system. Sure, a home dog generally means it's a lower tier team playing a top tier team to get points at home. I think I put a spreadsheet together last year, and something in the over 80-85% where the home team did not lose by more than 2 TD's at home.
I think you can get 4-team 13pt teasers -120 at most shops.
ETA: Starting this up Week 5. I want 4 weeks of current data to work with before I start hitting this with considerable funds. There were outlier teams for this last season, and I want to have an idea of who they definitely are and build some data.
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I really thought I was still able to get these at 5d, but it wasn't as helpful since they shade their lines to reduce the number of eligible games.
I also thought I got some at SB last year if I placed them on Friday when their juice is reduced, but not sure if that was a fluke week when someone was asleep over there.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
We gotta hook up with some of these dopey Euro books. Maybe they don't know about Wong.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
If those are consistently at 85%, you're going to win 52.2% of your parlays. That's not good enough to be +EV at -120.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Thanks for the heads up, GPJ. Might've just been hot last season, will keep that in mind with unit sizes.
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
I leave for Myrtle tomorrow as well for a baseball tourney for my 13 year old step son. I hope to be gambling the entire time and we need to meet for a beer or 12. PM me.
I took the following while packing - ie - I did not put a ton of time into picking these, just want something to follow:
MIL/AZ O 8
BOS O 7.5
LAA - 124
mquinnjr
Footballguy
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Bull#### mush move after already stating your position on the Rays. No reason to bump that post until after the game. If you ever tried to mush any of my picks, especially on a long shot POTY like that, I would be ####### pissed.LOCO said:
Um, what?Bull#### mush move after already stating your position on the Rays. No reason to bump that post until after the game. If you ever tried to mush any of my picks, especially on a long shot POTY like that, I would be ####### pissed.LOCO said:
tjnc09 said:
I like you so I will accept your apology.Bull#### mush move after already stating your position on the Rays. No reason to bump that post until after the game. If you ever tried to mush any of my picks, especially on a long shot POTY like that, I would be ####### pissed.LOCO said:
Re-read my post.
Great call LOCO
modogg
Footballguy
So i really passively follow baseball, but i was just looking over my futures, which i made way too many plays with, and it seems a common theme I had was the Nationals were going ton do good, and the Red Sox weren't. I think my Red Sox calls will burn a bit unless something changes for them, but is there any hope for the Nationals? What's their deal, why are they stinking it up so far this year?
ChainsawU
Footballguy
It was bad timing on your part by bumping the play when Cosart hadn't even allowed a hit yet. I mean, c'mon, I like you too, but if anyone bumped one of my picks during a no-hitter, I'd be pretty mad. Sorry for the language in my post.tjnc09 said:I like you so I will accept your apology.Bull#### mush move after already stating your position on the Rays. No reason to bump that post until after the game. If you ever tried to mush any of my picks, especially on a long shot POTY like that, I would be ####### pissed.LOCO said:
Re-read my post.
Great call LOCO
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Somebody might try to tell you that Scherzer is 4-0 versus the Rangers all-time. But the Tigers lost twice in the postseason to the Rangers in October 2011 with Scherzer on the mound. And in both losses Holland was the opposing starter. Scherzer’s team is 6-3 versus the Rangers since 2009. Rangers are 5-0 in Holland’s starts versus the Tigers. But Holland has never pitched at Comerica.
I'm here to offer picks and make money, not worry about sending bad juju to the gambling gods.It was bad timing on your part by bumping the play when Cosart hadn't even allowed a hit yet. I mean, c'mon, I like you too, but if anyone bumped one of my picks during a no-hitter, I'd be pretty mad. Sorry for the language in my post.tjnc09 said:I like you so I will accept your apology.Re-read my post.Bull#### mush move after already stating your position on the Rays. No reason to bump that post until after the game. If you ever tried to mush any of my picks, especially on a long shot POTY like that, I would be ####### pissed.LOCO said:
Great call LOCO
ChainsawU
Footballguy
So, last night I parlayed the Sox/Twins (haven't posted picks since my last run was bad..need to recalibrate.) Sox won, which is super. My intention was to bet against Hughes last night. I was drinking a wee bit. When the game started and I saw it was Kuroda, I assumed Hughes got scratched and did no further research. I saw Hughes was starting today so I made the bet I thought I made last night. When I logged on just now, it turns out that i accidentally bet today's game last night. I went to bed thinking I had won the sawx solo, but lost the Twins and the parlay (or pushed them, can't remember my thoughts.) Long story short, Past Plorfu's Inebriation just led to a winning parlay, a winning solo bet on the Twins and the Sawx solo! 2 units to win 7! Time for pasta and vodka!
derek245583
Footballguy
Over 3.5 in the Belize/Costa Rica game is free money
derek245583
Footballguy
Well, no such thing as free money
