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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (15 Viewers)

Someone talk me out of throwing my entire effing account on SC/WAZZU second half under and WAZZU + anything double digits...........I'll hang up and listen.

 
gussy said:
Someone talk me out of throwing my entire effing account on SC/WAZZU second half under and WAZZU + anything double digits...........I'll hang up and listen.
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Don't parlay it. Go half and half. The Trojans are a bunch of bums, but they at least have the potential to blow Wazzu's doors off.

 
Total is 24, spread is 8. Ugh. If it wasn't for the threat of overtime I'd be ALL over the under..............................scared :scared:

 
Was playing some Madden 25 and just checked in on the boards. I guess Im turning on this train wreck Kiffin has out in LA...

 
Would have been GREAT to have the sharps report tonight, but it got buried in the pre-Saturday chatter. Let's work on that.

I have some Wong tomorrow and the Bucs -3. Prolly put some coin on the Sunday night game, we'll see. 3-3 today, I forgot I had the OU/WVU under which I bet when the lines came out. Thanks for the Wazzu play!

 
Doctor Detroit said:
Would have been GREAT to have the sharps report tonight, but it got buried in the pre-Saturday chatter. Let's work on that.
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IIRC, Bender used to request it for Friday nights.

Also, it's better to see what they're thinking as early as possible so you can be proactive rather than reactive. :grad:

 
I hate it Friday night because I don't care about pro football on Friday night, I care about college.

Bender is ####### #### up, George is getting angry!!!!!

 
modogg said:
Raider Nation said:
The Pats are the other obvious survivor pick. But you could at least envision Spiller going nuts, leading to an improbable win.

The Raiders have nothing.
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I can't see how SD can beat Houston. should throw one of your picks for them
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For the record, I ended up going 4 picks on INDY and 1 on the Pats. I lost all 5 spots with New England last year when Arizona came into Foxboro and beat the Pats after Gostkowski yanked a chip-shot FG that he makes 99 times out of 100. I promised myself I wouldn't go all-in with 5 spots again. That was a miserable feeling.

ETA: But yeah, the Texans would have been option #3.

 
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Raider Nation said:
Heep said:
Is anybody else surprised Houston is only a -4 Monday night? I have them as one of my plays. Seems like the line is based solely on SD getting up for the game because they are at home on MNF opening week. Houston is a much better team though...
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Agreed. Houston's front 7 should abuse the Chargers' terrible O-line.
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Just punched my SD +6 ticket at sportsbook....this is the nfl, just too many points

 
*1.5 Amandola over 6 rec like this a lot as I assume he takes over Welkers role and gets this easy but it is week 1
*1 Ridley over 90.5 rushing

*.75 Dalton over 20 com*.75
*.75 V Jackson over 4.5 com -125
*.75 L. Moore over 64.5 rec
*.75 S- Jackson o 64.5 -125M.
*1 M.Wallace under 4.5 rec

 
Probably taking it easy today due to all the FF. Have another $250 bet to use, not sure what I'm going to do with that yet.

Cowherd Teaser (1u)

CIN+9/TB+1.5/CLE+4.5/CAR+9.5/TEN+13

Free $250 bet
NO o30 team pts

Home Dog Teaser (1u)
NYJ+10/JAX+10/BUF+17/CAR+10.5/SD+11
 
Raider Nation said:
***LAS VEGAS SHARPS REPORT -- WEEK 1***

:excited: :excited: :excited:

Edition #1 goes out to my boy mcquinnnnnjrrrrrrr, who helped me do a bunch of nerdy stuff with my fantasy rankings! :banned:

The first game of the 2013 regular season is in the books. Now lets take a look at how sharps (professional wagerers) have been betting the rest of Week One in the NFL. Note that this week is unique because the opening lines went up WEEKS ago. How sharps bet the openers over the summer may not reflect their current opinions on games because of quarterback changes or other prominent developments. With that in mind, well focus more on how sharps have been betting THIS WEEK.

As always, we take the games in rotation order so you can makes notes on your schedules

NEW ENGLAND AT BUFFALO: This line has hopped around based on the quarterback news for the Buffalo Bills. When it looked like Jeff Tuel was going to get the start (an undrafted rookie who didnt even shine at the college level), the Patriots were as high as -10.5 or -11. Now that E.J. Manuel is reportedly healthy enough to perform (a drafted rookie who the franchise hopes is their QB of the future)the line has settled in around New England -9 or 9.5. Sharps are taking Buffalo at +10 with Manuel. Sharps who thought whoever turned out to be the eventual Bills QB would be in over his headtook the Patriots before this week at a low point of -7.

TENNESSEE AT PITTSBURGH: There hasnt been much interest here. Existing action has been of the tug-of-war varietywith Pittsburgh money coming in at -6.5, and Tennessee money coming in at +7. Thats because seven is a key numbers. Sharps with opinions are playing the percentages. We have heard many cases of sharps having strong opinions in this one.

ATLANTA AT NEW ORLEANS: More than a few sharps are looking at New Orleans as a value team this season, as they get their head coach back with a chip on his shoulder. The Saints are getting respect here at -3 with extra juice of -120 or higher given the fact that Atlanta was a #1 seed last year and just missed going to the Super Bowl. Oddsmakers know Atlanta money would come in at +3.5 with a playoff caliber dog getting more than a key number. The line will only go that high if squares (the public) comes in on the Saints between now and kickoff. Basically, sharps like New Orleans at -3 with -110 juice, but the percentage value would flip over to the Falcons at +3.5 because field goal finishes are so common in evenly matched NFL games.

TAMPA BAY AT THE NY JETS: Tampa Bay was hit by sharps during the summerwhich pushed the line to the Bucs -2.5 when it was assumed that Mark Sanchez would be the starting quarterbackor an effective Geno Smith would get the call after winning the job in Preseason. Well, Geno Smith has been horribleand Sanchez is out with an injury. Thats pushed the line to Tampa Bay -3.5 without any Jets buy back. Some stores are testing Tampa Bay -4 to see if that brings in New York money. Sharps currently consider the Jets to be one of the worst teams in the NFL.

KANSAS CITY AT JACKSONVILLE: Sharps feel the same way about Jacksonville! And, this is almost a mirror scenario to the game above. Sharps liked Kansas City over the summer as a cheap road favorite because Andy Reid was likely to get the Chiefs at least moving in the right direction. The fact that the Jaguars cant figure out what to do at quarterback (amongst bad choices) encouraged more Chiefs money to come in. Kansas Citys favored by -4, and were seeing -4.5 get tested.

CINCINNATI AT CHICAGO: Not much action here. Chicago is a 3-point favorite in a battle of evenly matched teams. Any move off the key number would get flooded by sharp money. Wed only see a move if the public comes in hard on the Bears before kickoff. Thats possible because Chicago is a public team when things are going well. Squares may be waiting to see improvement before committing.

MIAMI AT CLEVELAND: Its odd to see a tug-of-war with a price this low. Theres not a key number involved. But, were seeing the line flip flop here through the week between pick-em and Cleveland -1. Browns backers are investing at pick-em. Miami money comes in at +1. Sharps are basically split on the game (and the outlook this year for the teams), and those factions are taking the best price they see.

SEATTLE AT CAROLINA: Generally speaking, sharps LOVE Seattle. They pounded them late last year and made big money. They love this defense. They love what theyre seeing from Russell Wilson at quarterback. This game has been over the key number for quite a while nowCarolina is actually reasonably respected in Vegas starting the new seasonbut the number isnt moving towards the key number. Seattle -3.5 has been bet up to -4, and -4.5 is being tested. For the time being, Seattle is going to be priced like a Super Bowl team, even if the public is slow to fall in love with them.

MINNESOTA AT DETROIT: Many in the media have been surprised about the support for Detroit. The Lions opened at -3 but are now -5 in most places. How can that be if Minnesota was a playoff team last year and Detroit missed by a mile? Our sources are telling us sharps believe Detroit is in for a big bounce back in 2013 after turnovers and other bad luck ruined 2012. Sharps are also skeptical of Minnesota catching breaks two years in a row. This line is telling you sharps have the Lions two points better in their Power Ratings, regardless of what last year looked like.

OAKLAND AT INDIANAPOLIS: Indianapolis was favored by -7 or-7.5 for much of the summer. The quarterback developments in Oakland have put the Raiders on the short list of worst teams to bet along with the NY Jets and Jacksonville. Terrelle Pryor will get the start for Oakland. Sharps dont have much faith in him, or Matt Flynn. The line is now up to -10 in many places. We are seeing some sharps take shots at the Raiders at +10 or +10.5. As weve said in past seasons, many old school guys will take double digits in any NFL game on principal. The math guys tend to favor the Colts up to and including -10. Will the public back the Colts on game day?

ARIZONA AT ST. LOUIS: The Rams were -6 at home during the summer, getting respect off a better-than-realized 2012 that had them holding their own against the toughest schedule in the league. But, Arizona was more competitive than sharps had expected during the Preseasonwith a new head coach and new starting quarterback. That led the Wise Guys to bet Arizona at +6, +5.5, and at +5. Were now seeing St. Louis by 4.5 in most places.

GREEN BAY AT SAN FRANCISCO: The 49ers opened at -5.5 over the summer, getting respect as the defending NFC champions. They didnt exactly set the world on fire during the Preseason though. That led many sharps to take the Packers at +5.5 and at +5 assuming a Super Bowl Letdown may be in order even if the Niners didnt win the trophy. Green Bay has revenge from a playoff loss on this field, and a regular season loss in Week One last year to the Niners at Lambeau.

NY GIANTS AT DALLAS: This line opened at Dallas -3. Weve told you often that it takes a lot of money to move a game off the three. Well, that money HAS been coming in on Dallas. Sharps have soured on the NY Giants based on how poorly they ended last yearand how sluggish they were in the Preseason. Dallas is seen as similar to Detroitmeaning a team poised for a bounce back if turnover luck turns around. Sharps bet Dallas aggressively at -3, andmost importantlydidnt buy the Giants back at +3.5.

MONDAY

PHILADELPHIA AT WASHINGTON: Interesting game hereand theres plenty of time between now and kickoff for it to get more interesting! The summer line was Washington -5, on the assumption that RGIII would be back, and that the Eagles would struggle to adjust to a new head coach. There were concerns about RGIII truly being readywhile the Eagles seemed to move the ball very well in the Preseasonwhich brought the line down to as low as Washington -3. This weeksharps have been hitting the Redskins without buying back on the Eagles at +3.5suggesting that sharps have settled on Washington -3 as the best way to play this one given all the indicators. We can report that many sharp groups are watching the Eagles closelyan the assumption that they could take the NFC by storm if they can play clean football in this up-tempo offense.

HOUSTON AT SAN DIEGO: Another game that opened at favorite -3 (Houston in this case)in a city where it takes a lot of money to move off a threeand that money did come in on the favorite with no buy back. San Diegos offense struggled badly in the Preseason for the most part. Houston is a playoff team with a history of taking care of business vs. poor opponents. Sharps like Houston at -3, and didnt buy back on San Diego +3.5. We may see this line move to Houston -4 or -4.5 by kickoff Monday.
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gmbacm said:
Raider Nation said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
Raider Nation said:
The Pats are the other obvious survivor pick. But you could at least envision Spiller going nuts, leading to an improbable win.

The Raiders have nothing.
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Pats are a lock but better to save them for a future week IMO
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That's the primary thought process. Would be nice to get all 5 entries through without using a Super-Elite team.
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think im going with indy/pit for my two
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went Indy and Tampa Bay in my two

anything good on TV today?

 
[HOMER ALERT]

Saints ML -155

  • Sean Payton's first game back since the suspension - Payton has a huge chip on his shoulder and he's owned the Falcons (6-2)
  • Home game against the hated rivals
  • Stadium will be insane - according to ESPN, this game has the fewest tickets available at the highest prices http://sports-ak.espn.go.com/nfl/schedule
  • Retiring Steve Gleason's jersey - Gleason blocked the punt for a TD against the falcons on the first drive of the first game back in the dome after Katrina. Saints fans consider it the biggest play in Saints history (even more so than the Porter INT in the Super Bowl to clinch it). Why are the Saints retiring his jersey? Gleason got diagnosed with ALS at 33 and his an avid proponent of the whole NFL player safety thing.
This is one of those emotional games...but it's one of those strong gut feels that the Saints will pull this one out :oldunsure:

 
Dan Lambskin said:
swirvenirvin said:
The Ref said:
swirvenirvin said:
*1 Ridley over 90.5 rushing
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We got a paid professional in here and I'm gong to let him do his thing.... but I'm fully expecting this one to be on the card.
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Its actually less on Bovada like 85.5 I think. I grabbed it on SB last night.

Love the Reggie Bush over 3.5 too
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only 80.5 for me...think I have to play this one
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wow where is that.

Thats the thing I somewhat dislike, but have to deal with it. SB posts theirs saturday while no one else does so I usually do them. Hopefully it wont matter

 
Hola, boys :bye:

BUF +10.5

NYJ +4.5

DET -5

Played a few 3-way win totals where ties lose:

PIT u9 +150

OAK u5 even

IND o9 +195

CLE o6 -140

Love the Skins tomorrow night also.

 
swirvenirvin said:
Dan Lambskin said:
swirvenirvin said:
The Ref said:
swirvenirvin said:
*1 Ridley over 90.5 rushing
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We got a paid professional in here and I'm gong to let him do his thing.... but I'm fully expecting this one to be on the card.
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Its actually less on Bovada like 85.5 I think. I grabbed it on SB last night.Love the Reggie Bush over 3.5 too
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only 80.5 for me...think I have to play this one
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wow where is that. Thats the thing I somewhat dislike, but have to deal with it. SB posts theirs saturday while no one else does so I usually do them. Hopefully it wont matter
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Betsports...it's a Kurt/RB type arrangement

No idea where they get their lines from

They don't offer a ton of props though either

 
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