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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (10 Viewers)

Since 2008, the Patriots are 16-2 SU as double digit favorites, but they are only 6-12 ATS in those games.

(14-2 SU and 5-11 ATS at home as DD faves since 2008)

 
ChainsawU said:
@ESPNStatsInfo

Andy Reid's 17 wins are the most vs Dallas of any head coach, 2 more than runner-up Joe Gibbs.
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I was going to comment on this one. I see some people on Dallas, but i wouldn't count the Chiefs out. With the Cowpokes getting 3 the line seems good, but i wouldn't invest much either way. Reid will have the Chiefs prepared for the Cowboys, and with Dez Bryant being banged up the game could be close

 
modogg said:
ChainsawU said:
@ESPNStatsInfo

Andy Reid's 17 wins are the most vs Dallas of any head coach, 2 more than runner-up Joe Gibbs.
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I was going to comment on this one. I see some people on Dallas, but i wouldn't count the Chiefs out. With the Cowpokes getting 3 the line seems good, but i wouldn't invest much either way. Reid will have the Chiefs prepared for the Cowboys, and with Dez Bryant being banged up the game could be close
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Chiefs have a pretty good front 7 this season, no? I didn't see their game on Sunday. Hell, I would take them to cover versus Dallas. :shrug:

 
If you broke even or somewhere close to even you did OK this week. I bookmarked this... I'll post it here if you guys find it interesting. Its like the sharps report postmortem

“I have been in this business since 2000, and this was one of the best NFL kickoffs sportsbooks have experienced,” said Sportsbook.ag’s Mike Perry. And he said that before the favored Texans failed to cover on Monday night against the Chargers — the biggest win of the week for more than a few books. Yes, the bettors got crushed.

Bovada reports an amazing 95 percent of all action on the Jets-Bucs game backed the losing Tampa Bay side. Think about just how lopsided that is. Nineteen of 20 bets faded the home underdog Jets. When the public grows sour on a team, nobody but the pros are willing to bet them. Not only did bettors lose against the four-point spread, they also lost their money line bets on the Bucs when New York kicked a late field goal for the win.

Oakland’s cover was another huge win for the house. Bettors liked the idea of backing Andrew Luck over the team with the worst Super Bowl odds entering the season. This was in spite of the advanced stats crowd predicting a regression, or the fact that the 2012 Colts were the first 11-win team to ever be outscored, or the small matter that the Colts — an 11-point favorite — won only two of 17 games last season by more than a touchdown. According to the action tracking tool at Pregame.com, only 18 percent of bets cashed with the Raiders.

The average bettor’s love of the bandwagon paid off with Kansas City. The Chiefs covered easily as four-point chalk, after opening favored by only a single point. Andy Reid's team have had the support of bettors the entire offseason.

Niners-Packers generated the most action among Sunday’s day slate. This 4:25 p.m. ET start was a great example of the power of scheduling. The one other late afternoon game was of little interest to bettors, resulting in oversize SF-GB action on sides, totals, and parlays. The public won with San Francisco, even though the also-marquee Packers entered the contest having covered 20 of 28 as an underdog. The average bettor acts upon what he saw last, which was total playoff domination by the Niners against Aaron Rodgers & Co.

The wiseguys most consistently backed the Panthers, Browns, and Titans — covering only one of the three. Some, but not all, sportsbooks reported sharp action on two more losers: Minnesota and Baltimore. Keep in mind that professional bettors are separate people who each individually makes decisions. Wiseguy opinion is rarely unanimous, and sometimes the consensus cannot even be discerned. For example, LVH’s Jay Kornegay reported sharp action on the Falcons, while Boyd Gaming reported the same on the Saints.

In terms of the college game, the action was on Notre Dame at Michigan, with the bettors profiting on the favored Wolverines. Bovada was an exception, citing Florida-Miami as the larger bet game. Overall, bettors suffered a moderate college football loss for the second week in a row.

Handicapper Teddy Sevransky first pointed me to this week’s eye-popping case of just how aware college coaches are of the Vegas spread. North Carolina, favored by 19.5 against Middle Tennessee State, led by 27 late in the game. MTSU had the ball, and NC’s defensive starters were out of the game. MTSU scored with 25 seconds left and then recovered an onside kick at midfield. North Carolina, up by 20 with less than a half-minute remaining — again, favored by 19.5 — proceeded to put its defensive starters back in the game! You can bet the alumni appreciated it.

This Saturday will be dominated by Alabama at Texas A&M. The Golden Nugget’s Aaron Kessler expects the influx of bettors in Vegas for the Floyd Mayweather–Canelo Alvarez fight to drive a big handle all weekend. The marquee NFL game of the week is Sunday night’s battle between San Francisco and Seattle, but according to Boyd Gaming’s Bob Scucci, it might not generate the expected action: “Two teams are playing each other that the public loves to bet. The average bettor likes it more when real good teams play real bad teams, rather than good teams playing each other, or bad teams playing each other.” Next Tuesday, we’ll tell you the truth about what happened in Vegas over the weekend.

RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) is the founder of Pregame.com. His ESPN radio show in Las Vegas can be heard weekdays at 10 a.m. PT.

 
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Dan Lambskin said:
Survivor Pool Guys...thoughts on the Falcons this week?
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if it is a traditional survivor league i may hold onto Atl for a bit. the main one i do let's you pick teams as many times as you want, but it eliminates the top favorites (top 2 favorites for weeks 1-3, top 3 for 4-7, etc.) and i got Atl, Philly and Cincy (x3).

 
modogg said:
Dan Lambskin said:
Survivor Pool Guys...thoughts on the Falcons this week?
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if it is a traditional survivor league i may hold onto Atl for a bit. the main one i do let's you pick teams as many times as you want, but it eliminates the top favorites (top 2 favorites for weeks 1-3, top 3 for 4-7, etc.) and i got Atl, Philly and Cincy (x3).
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Hard not to like the Pats a lot. I'm not gonna get worked up over a fluke victory at home, which was all due to a dumb penalty.

Geno in his first road start against Belichick isn't a fair fight.

 
Raider Nation said:
modogg said:
Dan Lambskin said:
Survivor Pool Guys...thoughts on the Falcons this week?
Click to expand...
if it is a traditional survivor league i may hold onto Atl for a bit. the main one i do let's you pick teams as many times as you want, but it eliminates the top favorites (top 2 favorites for weeks 1-3, top 3 for 4-7, etc.) and i got Atl, Philly and Cincy (x3).
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Hard not to like the Pats a lot. I'm not gonna get worked up over a fluke victory at home, which was all due to a dumb penalty.

Geno in his first road start against Belichick isn't a fair fight.
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Yeah trying to avoid division games and the "lock" type games, but this one may be tough to pass up

Need to see if they have any other gimmes I want to save them for

 
Raider Nation said:
Dan Lambskin said:
ChainsawU said:
Raider Nation said:
Partiots rookie WRs Josh Boyce and Aaron Dobson -- either of them worth a pickup in redrafts?
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Swirve has a thread on this exact subject in the SP. Except his is on Joyce and Bobson.
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Is it knee deep in douchebaggery yet?
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Few SP threads aren't.
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At this point, unless I'm loaded for bear on a topic, I just lurk. It's brutal, especially early in the season.

Dez, etc. "PANIC!!!" threads are fantastic schtick after Week 1.

 
Just saw a FanDuel ad on ESPNews. Almost had a heart attack that the xPromo was going to include FBG's.

Need my FF cave to be a secret. But have to wonder, how far off are we from that?

I want the staff here to do well and all, but I feel like FBG is a best kept secret on FF info I don't need my league to know about.

PS - Just freaking legalize sports already, k?

 
Leroy Hoard said:
swirvenirvin said:
Leroy Hoard said:
Looks like the Spartan under might have to wait with it being an "added game" this week. Did see one line out there (42), go for it if you can get a bet in somewhere.
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where at?eta i see 39.5 at 5dimes

eta 2 they juiced the hell out of it at -120 not worth it
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Yes, they already pounded it and my local does not have the game on his list. Will have to pass also.
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Youngstown State to cover might be a good play this week. Line opened at MSU -27. Even if you assume YSU won't score, 27 points is a huge task for the dreadful Spartan offense.

 
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Hey guys wanted to share this information. I have this older guy that I work with that used to be a card dealer in Vegas. He is really into golf and is a very talented player (he missed the cut for a Senior PGA Tour Event by 2 strokes). I started talking to him and letting him know I bet on games and what not and he started giving me who he thought was going to win the upcoming PGA Tour Event. He did this 4 times and 1 time he picked right, 2 times he picked someone that was leading at some point, and still placed top 3. The other time he took Sergio and he had an awful tournament and ended up withdrawing. With that being said, I think he may be decent at the pick-ems for matchups. I gave him a list and here are the ones he likes. I'm not bidding on them, but I figure I'll see how he does and if he does well, I'll go back to him next week...

A Scott +126 over Woods

Stricker -145 over Kuchar

Mickelson +117 over Stenson

Garcia -125 over Spieth

Simpson +117 over Bradley

Haas -157 over Castro.

Let's see how the old man does :popcorn:

 
[icon] said:
ChainsawU said:
PHOTO: Alabama's weight room has Texas A&M on the brain

By Jerry Hinnen | College Football Writer

July 16, 2013 4:28 pm ET

Nick Saban has already admitted this offseason (in May!) that preparation for Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M has been an "ongoing process," which was already quite a statement from a coach whose discussion of future challenges rarely venture beyond simply waking up the following morning. But if this photo via Taylor Travis of the Alabama weight room is any indication, the Crimson Tide's loss to the Aggies in 2012 has stuck in the craw of Saban and his team like few others. Travis indicates that "they have the A&M game playing on every TV as well as the A&M logo on the weight stations." Look closely and, sure enough, there's a game on the TVs and Aggie towels hanging from the weights:

Suffice it to say that if the photo is legitimate, and A&M defeats Alabama for the second year in a row in their Sept. 14 showdown at College Station (3:30 ET, CBS), the Aggies aren't going to do it with the element of surprise.
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A&M is so ####ed.

Seriously. Saban with the extra week... the nations most talented football program with a chip on their shoulder and with this game circled all offseason?

Bama by double digits.
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IN

2U

 
Tonight:

NYJ/NE U 43 - 110: i think Brady will find a way to methodically drive the Pats with a short passing game to Thompkins and Edelman as well as pounding Ridley. I like BB to do enough to a rookie QB on the road that the Jets find it to be tough sledding offensively. i think the Pats win but do not cover the number so I am laying off the side ( for now :bag: )

Alabama -7.5 - 115: Not only is bama focused on this but Johnny Football is getting on my nerves and I have A&M Win total under so might as well go all in. Got this now.

GLTA
AB

 
swirvenirvin said:
No props posted for tomorrow yet, but Pat ones should be interesting. Have to take Edelman anything over 5.5 and be safe, maybe even at 6. I mean Brady no one one to pass to at all.
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7.5 at my book

 
UCF is in the bottom 5th in the league in pass attempts, only averaging about 26 passing attempts per game the past 5 years. Both teams are averaging 38.5 rush attempts per game through 2 games this season, in line with their average rush attempts per game the past 5 years. Both teams favor the run, and I wanted action on a 6PM game on TV.

Central Florida vs. Penn State u50 110/100

 
Alabama is 7-1 in revenge games under Nick Saban with an average margin of victory of 20.9 points in those wins. Alabama has won 21 straight SEC openers.

 
Loco's Parlays. Last week freaking Bucs blew it up my 1u to win 6u.

Pats

Texans

Packers

Bama

South Carolina

1 unit to win 2 units

 
Spartans Rule said:
Leroy Hoard said:
swirvenirvin said:
Leroy Hoard said:
Looks like the Spartan under might have to wait with it being an "added game" this week. Did see one line out there (42), go for it if you can get a bet in somewhere.
Click to expand...
where at?eta i see 39.5 at 5dimes

eta 2 they juiced the hell out of it at -120 not worth it
Click to expand...
Yes, they already pounded it and my local does not have the game on his list. Will have to pass also.
Click to expand...
Youngstown State to cover might be a good play this week. Line opened at MSU -27. Even if you assume YSU won't score, 27 points is a huge task for the dreadful Spartan offense.
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Well Cook will suck, because that's what he does, and then Terry comes in. Maybe he can score some points, if not the Spartans are done.

 
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