SHARPS REPORT, NFL Week 5
KANSAS CITY AT TENNESSEE:
On opener of Kansas City -2.5 was bet up to -3. We’re hearing that early action was based on the fact that Tennessee will be without Jake Locker for awhile…and that initial money wanted in below the key number. Moving forward, this isn’t a game the sharps are expected to be aggressive with because Tennessee has played good defense all season, while Kansas City’s offense has been up and down.
BALTIMORE AT MIAMI:
An opener of Miami -3 has stayed solid, as many move off the critical number would likely be pounded right back to it because of the likelihood that a close game between competitive teams would land right on that number. Were the public to fall in love with one side or the other, sharps would fade a line move caused by public action.
JACKSONVILLE AT ST. LOUIS:
St. Louis opened at -10.5, and was bet up past -11 rather than toward the key number of 10. That obviously represents support for the Rams. But, sharps have been supporting the Rams all season only to watch the team continually go out and play poorly. We’re not hearing of many sharps who are looking to back the Jags even if the line reaches +12 or higher. Not a high priority game for sharps at the moment.
NEW ENGLAND AT CINCINNATI:
On opener of pick-em was bet toward the home team. Though underdog money does come in on New England at +1.5 or higher. Oddsmakers will be watching this one carefully because New England would be a popular teaser choice if they end up seeing +1.5, +2, or +2.5 on game day. The Patriots won outright at this price in Atlanta last week, covering the game and all teasers.
SEATTLE AT INDIANAPOLIS:
Sharps loaded up very heavily against Seattle last week in Houston, only to see the Seahawks steal the game in overtime thanks to an interception return for a TD late in regulation. They want to fade the Seahawks again in a second straight road game vs. a playoff contender. But, oddsmakers are hesitant to drop Indianapolis +3 down to +2.5 because it would invite teaser play on a live home underdog. Sportsbooks will have to decide if they want to root for Seattle -3, or Seattle -8.5.
DETROIT AT GREEN BAY:
Green Bay opened at -6.5 and was bet immediately up to the key number of -7. We’re hearing some of that is support for the Packers…some of that is position-taking for middles just in case the public comes in on Green Bay over the weekend…and some of that is due to Green Bay having a bye last week for extra preparation time. So…some of the money is “bye” related rather than pure support of the Packers. Were the line to climb above a touchdown, sharps would take Detroit at +7.5 or +8, while also playing Green Bay in teasers at -1.5 and -2.
NEW ORLEANS AT CHICAGO:
Interesting game. We saw an opener of pick-em. Different stores have tested either side at -1, only to see betting action drive the line back to pick-em. Remember that the public tends to love betting Chicago in their best years. But, they also love betting the Saints in their best years! We’re hearing that sharps are monitoring weather reports very closely…and that some heavy action may be brewing based on game day conditions.
PHILADELPHIA AT NY GIANTS:
The NY Giants opened at -1, and were bet up to -2 or -2.5 in most locales. Sharps have been way out of synch with both teams. We’re hearing that some of that move was just sharps trying to bet the game into the teaser window. Were the public to take the number to Philadelphia +3, sharps would come in on the underdog with the better won-lost record.
CAROLINA AT ARIZONA:
Carolina opened at -2, in a game that hasn’t generated much interest yet. It’s already in the teaser window, so Arizona +8 will be included in two-teamers. Sharps generally like fading Carolina games that are expected to be close because their coach has such a poor record in those kinds of affairs. That line of thinking cost them a fortune in NY Giants/Carolina because it turned out not to be a close game. Sources tell us Arizona would have been bet aggressively if they hadn’t played so poorly last week at Tampa Bay.
SAN DIEGO AT OAKLAND:
San Diego opened at -5, a sign of respect after the Chargers played so well against Dallas last week. Terrelle Pryor is set to return to quarterback the Raiders. Bets so far have weighted toward the Raiders. This spread range is a no-man’s land for key numbers and teasers, so it may not be heavily bet by sharps. But, it’s this kind of game that has surprisingly see big game day moves…so you just never know.
DENVER AT DALLAS:
It’s been well publicized that this line jumped way up from an opener of -5.5. Denver is now laying more than a touchdown. That’s just what sportsbooks wanted, the Broncos in the teaser window! If the line stays around -7.5 or -8, everyone will have them in teasers. We’re hearing that many sharps are looking to bet the live home dog heavily once a game day line has settled in, particularly if it’s much more than a touchdown.
HOUSTON AT SAN FRANCISCO:
Our first “tug-of-war” game! Normally that’s a theme for over half the card. A combination of bye weeks for four teams and a lack of games near the three has reduced that phenomenon. We’re generally seeing bets for San Francisco -6.5 and Houston +7. That’s likely to continue up to kickoff based on what we’re hearing. Houston may be one of the teams sharps are going to keep being stubborn about.
NY JETS AT ATLANTA (Monday Night):
Atlanta opened at -7.5, and has been bet all the way up to -9.5 and -10. How could that happen after the Falcons looked so shaky last Sunday Night? We’re hearing that sharps soured on Geno Smith as a road quarterback after he cost them a fortune in Tennessee last week…and that oddsmakers were quick to yank the game through the teaser window because they didn’t want the whole world on Atlanta in a spot where teaser players could use them to finish off this week AND to start off next week. Sharps would come in on the Jets at +11, and possibly even at +10.5 or +10 on game day. They’re standing pat now so the public has time to bet the TV favorite like they normally do.
artybus:
