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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (3 Viewers)

Man In The Box said:
"Good said:
Don't think I'd go more than 2 to 2.5u on anything priced at -250.
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I usually won't consider betting anything that's -250 or worse. This is an unusual case with such an off number in my opinion.
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It all comes down to Probability of Event - Breakeven % for odds offered. I wouldn't rule out betting big favorites as a rule, but I do think they need to be approached with some caution. That Barnwell guy at Grantland has screwed this up a couple times on SB props, which I've mocked here ad nauseum.

 
To explain my reasoning, there are 11 weeks left in the regular season. I'm not saying that a bet on Manning is a Bad bet, just that at -250 it's not a lock.

 
ADP has only played four games and gets his fullback back who he runs much better behind. He's probably the one that would scare me most

 
I think I wound up risking about 3 grand or so on Obama to beat Romney with most of the odds at -250 or worse but I knew that was a sure thing. Peyton could get hurt I guess but I wouldn't want to take a field bet against him right now unless the odds were crazy.

 
All good points, and I agree far from a lock. You'd definitely have to have a tough stomach for the next 3 months. I personally would feel comfortable putting a good chunk on it though. I'd say 750/300 (7.5 units for me) is about right. Hell, he could continue at his pace and only play 14 games and still win it.

 
ok boys...under 3.5 1st 5 hit. Now we need over 6.5 for the game at EV to hit....otherwise its a push for me.

Also on the over 24 2h in football, have multiple overs in live betting between 47-53.5.

 
got_nugs said:
ok boys...under 3.5 1st 5 hit. Now we need over 6.5 for the game at EV to hit....otherwise its a push for me.

Also on the over 24 2h in football, have multiple overs in live betting between 47-53.5.
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At least the original 47 covered. 10 points 2h=awesome.

 
I just got home from school, spent 4 hours today working on a 5-7 minute presentation, and then ####ed myself by going 8 1/2 minutes. <_<

Hey Mo, congrats on the o47 brohan. :thumbup:

 
If anyone were going to come out of nowhere and #### up the Manning-for-MVP it would be Geno, IMO. Just a gut feeling. Other than that, bet looks golden. :wink:

 
ChainsawU said:
I just got home from school, spent 4 hours today working on a 5-7 minute presentation, and then ####ed myself by going 8 1/2 minutes. <_<

Hey Mo, congrats on the o47 brohan. :thumbup:
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thanks. Looked golden after the 1st half, then poof. Lost the Bears play, that intentional grounding cost me a bit with that and I also took Bears ov28 points . But the teasers all held out, so hoping to break the bit of a losing streak i have caught ever since Monday

 
doing it again for this bellator show, but these lines are just silly. Basing this on some things i read because i am not all that familiar with Taimanglo, but:

Ambrose +435

Taimanglo +440

F Rickels, Ambrose better show up and fight a smart fight, and here is hoping what i read on Taimanglo holds true. For the life of me, i just can't picture the guy right now, and i am too lazy to really go look him up. with that number, worth a shot.

and for those willing to lay down a bunch, Friere is going to destroy Guerreiro. If the price was more reasonable (probably -400 or something) i would take it, but at -900, I am fine to pass

 
It was a kick. Which means intent is irrelevant, because he clearly didn't mean to. :(

Anyway, a TD on this drive and we're looking decent.

 
Raider Nation said:
It was a kick. Which means intent is irrelevant, because he clearly didn't mean to. :(

Anyway, a TD on this drive and we're looking decent.
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You can't accidentally kick a loose ball? Seems dumb. Not sure why they got to rekick either but let's go USC and points.
 
Yeah, I guess it's one of those things.... when in doubt, throw the flag. No need to figure out if it was intentional or not.

I don't want to see this ball in the air. From the 4 yards line, this O-line should be able to do the job within four tries.

 
I'm going to continue to be on the LSU over until it stops hitting. They consistently have a great offense and a pourous defense.

LSU o48.5 2u

I'll also likely be on the 1ho and LSU TT when it comes out.

 
ChainsawU said:
ChainsawU said:
NCAA game tomorrow; I found some stats. The 1st page is a side-by-side comparison of how Cincy and Temple differ the most. Cincy's significant stats all seem to be toward the top of the national rankings, while Temple's significant stats seem to be in the bottom of the national rankings, which is what the second page is showing you. I wanted to make a case for the over, and Temple will probably allow some points, but I'm not sure they can hold up their end of the bargain offensively. link
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Maybe something can be said for Temple's red-zone defense. Teams have scored on 21-of-26 trips inside the Temple 20, but only eight of those scores have been touchdowns. Cincinnati is ranked very high on defense. But aside from Illinois, their opponents have ranked in the 117-122 range offensively this season. That is also where Temple ranks, however. One unknown is that Temple's rookie QB is getting his first start. He threw a late TD versus Louisville, but it was in a blowout against their second-string defense. Temple is 4-1 to the under this year, with the lone over hitting in their game versus the only FCS team they played, Fordham, who beat them 30-29.
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All this #### I wrote is still true and I was really trying to figure out why I didn't take u51.5 when I had the chance. Is today just game day money coming on the "fun" Friday night over bet? I think this is all I can do on this. I wish I knew more.

 
The Bearcats have not allowed an offensive touchdown in 2.5 games, since the second quarter of the Northwestern State game on Sept. 14 (10 quarters of play).

 
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