Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
NFL SHARPS REPORT, WEEK 6
OAKLAND AT KANSAS CITY:
The Chiefs opened at -10, but were bet down to -8.5 or -9 because the Raiders have been fairly good in the games Terrelle Pryor has started. Oakland beat San Diego last week outright as a home underdog…and almost shocked Indianapolis on the road in a result that’s even more impressive now than it was at the time. Sharps will be watching this one closely to see if they can play Kansas City in teasers…moving a line of -8.5 or lower down to -2.5 or lower. About the only good news for sharps this season is that their classic teaser strategies are working well. Kansas City would be a popular teaser choice for sharps and squares alike at anything under a field goal. The total is down a tick from an opener of 41 to 40.5. First meetings in divisional rivalries are often defensive struggles. This was a low opener already though.
PHILADELPHIA AT TAMPA BAY:
Sharps have mostly stayed away from this one because of the quarterback situation. It will probably be Nick Foles against Mike Glennon…and neither signal caller has much of a track record at the pro level. We’re hearing that sharps aren’t impressed with Glennon…but they do respect the bye angle, and Tampa Bay had last week off why Philadelphia was playing an important divisional game. Note from this point going forward that we’ll only mention Over/Unders if sharps have shown interest.
GREEN BAY AT BALTIMORE:
An opener of Green Bay -3.5 (in some stores anyway), was quickly bet down to a field goal…with some locales even testing Green Bay -2.5. It takes a lot of money to move off the key number of three, so that’s pretty good evidence that sharps prefer the Baltimore side of things. You’ll recall that Green Bay recently lost a road game at Cincinnati of the AFC in this price range. Baltimore’s been getting some good results of late vs. quality opposition. The total went up a tick from an opener of 47.5 to 48. We’re hearing it could go higher if good weather is helping scoring conditions. Baltimore is playing at a very fast pace this year…which will give Green Bay plenty of chances to score. Note that Baltimore would obviously be a popular choice in the teaser window (moving +2.5 up to +8.5) because it’s already a popular choice as a regular bet at +3.
DETROIT AT CLEVELAND:
We may have a tug-of-war here between Detroit -2.5 and Cleveland +3. The Browns have impressed sharps with their attitude and effort his season. But, the return of Brandon Weeden at quarterback isn’t exactly being celebrated in sharp circles. We’re seeing value bets on the Browns at +3, but favorite money coming in when the number drops below the key number (though teaser players are jumping on Cleveland +8.5 if they can get it). The opening total is down a half point from 45 to 44.5.
CAROLINA AT MINNESOTA:
Minnesota has been bet up from an opener of -2 to -2.5…but not with enough sentiment to bring it to the full three. Oddsmakers are confident that dog players would come in hard on the Panthers +3…so we’ve settled on the 2.5. That means sharps will have Carolina in two-team teasers. We are hearing some rumblings that the anti-Cam Newton contingent may step in hard on game day on the bye-rested Vikings. A certain segment of sharps haven’t trusted him as a pro quarterback, and think his mistakes cost the Panthers the Arizona game last week. The big move in this game has been on the total, with an opener of 46.5 falling to 44. Some of that move was based on Carolina’s failure to turn yards into points in most of their games this season.
ST. LOUIS AT HOUSTON:
Houston opened many places at -7.5…got bet down to -7 for awhile…but is now back to -7.5 most everywhere as we go to press. That means the Texans will be in two-team teasers crossing both the 7 and the 3 on the way down. We’re hearing that oddsmakers think St. Louis has decent upset potential here due to Houston’s recent poor play. They’re not as afraid of this teaser option as some of the others. If sportsbooks wanted to discourage teasers here…they would have jacked Houston up to -9.
PITTSBURGH AT NY JETS:
Big move here across the equator as the NY Jets moved from +2 to -2 after their impressive Monday Night victory at Atlanta. Sharps aren’t sure what to make of Geno Smith. He’s had some really excellent games, but struggled with turnovers and poor passing vs. Tennessee and New England. Bye-rested Pittsburgh will be a popular underdog teaser choice if this line doesn’t move much more. The total is up a tick from 40.5 to 41. We would expect it to drop on game day if there’s a forecast for precipitation or wind.
CINCINNATI AT BUFFALO:
Buffalo took the market by surprise when they announced that Thaddeus Lewis would come up off the practice team to start this game ahead of Jeff Tuel. Cincinnati had been bet up from an opener of -7 to -7.5 on the assumption that inexperienced and unproven Tuel would get the call. Sharps actually like Lewis better! That’s why the number has dropped back to the solid seven. Cincinnati would be a popular teaser choice were the line to go back up to at least -7.5. The total has plummeted from 45 down to 41.5 because of Buffalo’s quarterback woes. Bad opener.
TENNESSEE AT SEATTLE:
Not much interest here, which tells you something right off the bat because the game opened near a critical number. Seattle is -13.5. If sharps liked the host, they would have jumped on that immediately to drive it to the key number of -14. That didn’t happen, which tells us that sharps are looking to bet Tennessee +14 and are hoping the public will drive the line higher before kickoffs. Sharps haven’t been impressed with Russell Wilson’s at quarterback this year, and believe the Seahawks are very lucky not to have gone 0-2 on their recent road trip to Houston and Indianapolis. The total is down a tick from 41 to 40.5.
JACKSONVILLE AT DENVER:
This game has gotten way too much media attention because of the high number. The line has settled at Denver -27.5. It’s odd to think of -28 as a key number…but it actually is relatively key in a potential blowout. We’re hearing sharps would come in on the Jags at +28. Also, many old-school sharps haven’t bet the dog yet because they’re waiting to see what they can get after the public starts hitting the game this weekend.
ARIZONA AT SAN FRANCISCO:
An opener of San Francisco -11.5 was bet down to -11. Sharps still aren’t impressed with Colin Kaepernick’s passing. Most of the big steam move on Houston last Sunday was anti-Kaepernick…and he had a horrible game in the air. It’s not that sharps love Carson Palmer, but they like his chances to stay within +11.5 against what they consider to be an overrated 49ers team. This total, like many others, has been bet down a tick. An opener of 42 is now 41.5. Sharps are betting a lot of defense, even if the media keeps focusing on Fantasy Football stats.
NEW ORLEANS AT NEW ENGLAND:
An opener of New England -3 was bet down to New Orleans +2.5…which represents very strong support for the Saints. First, it takes a lot of money to move off the key number of three. Second, New England always gets public respect at home…but sharps didn’t wait to see if they could get better than three. This is an aggressive move from the sharps even if it only represents a half a point on the board. And, this also puts the Saints in the teaser window at +8.5, which sharps love. Those interested in the total have bet the Over from 50 to 50.5. But, both of these teams played Under games last week, and are running clock when they can on offense. Game day weather might influence Over/Under assessments as well. Keep an eye on that.
WASHINGTON AT DALLAS:
Big move here on the Cowboys based on their very strong showing against Denver last week. An opener of -3.5 was bet all the way up to -5.5 or -6. Washington’s defense has been very soft this year…and Tony Romo is seen by sharps as a quarterback who can take advantage of bad defenses. We are hearing though that some underdog money might come into play through the weekend if the line solidifies at +6 or better from the Skins perspective. A bye-rested underdog facing a mistake-prone quarterback in a letdown spot will appeal to a certain segment of sharps if the price is right. The Over/Under was bet up from 51 to 53.5 because of the shootout potential for this indoor encounter.
INDIANAPOLIS AT SAN DIEGO (Monday Night):
The Colts are a team that sharps have fallen in love with quickly because they’re getting solid results playing the right way against top competition. That’s why Indianapolis was bet up from pick-em to -1.5 or -2 even though this is their second trip to the West Coast in the past few weeks. Note that San Diego will be a popular teaser choice at that price…both to close out teasers for this weekend…and to open up teasers for the following weekend. We saw a very big move on the total…from early openers in the 46-47 range all the way up to 50. Why so much support for the Over? Our sources tell us that San Diego’s defense is grading out very poorly for the quants, which is triggering shootout potential in good scoring conditions. This was a “math” move for the most part…though the fact that Ryan Matthews may be out with a concussion is part of the picture that increases shootout potential. If San Diego has to pass all night, we’re likely to see an up-and-down game.
OAKLAND AT KANSAS CITY:
The Chiefs opened at -10, but were bet down to -8.5 or -9 because the Raiders have been fairly good in the games Terrelle Pryor has started. Oakland beat San Diego last week outright as a home underdog…and almost shocked Indianapolis on the road in a result that’s even more impressive now than it was at the time. Sharps will be watching this one closely to see if they can play Kansas City in teasers…moving a line of -8.5 or lower down to -2.5 or lower. About the only good news for sharps this season is that their classic teaser strategies are working well. Kansas City would be a popular teaser choice for sharps and squares alike at anything under a field goal. The total is down a tick from an opener of 41 to 40.5. First meetings in divisional rivalries are often defensive struggles. This was a low opener already though.
PHILADELPHIA AT TAMPA BAY:
Sharps have mostly stayed away from this one because of the quarterback situation. It will probably be Nick Foles against Mike Glennon…and neither signal caller has much of a track record at the pro level. We’re hearing that sharps aren’t impressed with Glennon…but they do respect the bye angle, and Tampa Bay had last week off why Philadelphia was playing an important divisional game. Note from this point going forward that we’ll only mention Over/Unders if sharps have shown interest.
GREEN BAY AT BALTIMORE:
An opener of Green Bay -3.5 (in some stores anyway), was quickly bet down to a field goal…with some locales even testing Green Bay -2.5. It takes a lot of money to move off the key number of three, so that’s pretty good evidence that sharps prefer the Baltimore side of things. You’ll recall that Green Bay recently lost a road game at Cincinnati of the AFC in this price range. Baltimore’s been getting some good results of late vs. quality opposition. The total went up a tick from an opener of 47.5 to 48. We’re hearing it could go higher if good weather is helping scoring conditions. Baltimore is playing at a very fast pace this year…which will give Green Bay plenty of chances to score. Note that Baltimore would obviously be a popular choice in the teaser window (moving +2.5 up to +8.5) because it’s already a popular choice as a regular bet at +3.
DETROIT AT CLEVELAND:
We may have a tug-of-war here between Detroit -2.5 and Cleveland +3. The Browns have impressed sharps with their attitude and effort his season. But, the return of Brandon Weeden at quarterback isn’t exactly being celebrated in sharp circles. We’re seeing value bets on the Browns at +3, but favorite money coming in when the number drops below the key number (though teaser players are jumping on Cleveland +8.5 if they can get it). The opening total is down a half point from 45 to 44.5.
CAROLINA AT MINNESOTA:
Minnesota has been bet up from an opener of -2 to -2.5…but not with enough sentiment to bring it to the full three. Oddsmakers are confident that dog players would come in hard on the Panthers +3…so we’ve settled on the 2.5. That means sharps will have Carolina in two-team teasers. We are hearing some rumblings that the anti-Cam Newton contingent may step in hard on game day on the bye-rested Vikings. A certain segment of sharps haven’t trusted him as a pro quarterback, and think his mistakes cost the Panthers the Arizona game last week. The big move in this game has been on the total, with an opener of 46.5 falling to 44. Some of that move was based on Carolina’s failure to turn yards into points in most of their games this season.
ST. LOUIS AT HOUSTON:
Houston opened many places at -7.5…got bet down to -7 for awhile…but is now back to -7.5 most everywhere as we go to press. That means the Texans will be in two-team teasers crossing both the 7 and the 3 on the way down. We’re hearing that oddsmakers think St. Louis has decent upset potential here due to Houston’s recent poor play. They’re not as afraid of this teaser option as some of the others. If sportsbooks wanted to discourage teasers here…they would have jacked Houston up to -9.
PITTSBURGH AT NY JETS:
Big move here across the equator as the NY Jets moved from +2 to -2 after their impressive Monday Night victory at Atlanta. Sharps aren’t sure what to make of Geno Smith. He’s had some really excellent games, but struggled with turnovers and poor passing vs. Tennessee and New England. Bye-rested Pittsburgh will be a popular underdog teaser choice if this line doesn’t move much more. The total is up a tick from 40.5 to 41. We would expect it to drop on game day if there’s a forecast for precipitation or wind.
CINCINNATI AT BUFFALO:
Buffalo took the market by surprise when they announced that Thaddeus Lewis would come up off the practice team to start this game ahead of Jeff Tuel. Cincinnati had been bet up from an opener of -7 to -7.5 on the assumption that inexperienced and unproven Tuel would get the call. Sharps actually like Lewis better! That’s why the number has dropped back to the solid seven. Cincinnati would be a popular teaser choice were the line to go back up to at least -7.5. The total has plummeted from 45 down to 41.5 because of Buffalo’s quarterback woes. Bad opener.
TENNESSEE AT SEATTLE:
Not much interest here, which tells you something right off the bat because the game opened near a critical number. Seattle is -13.5. If sharps liked the host, they would have jumped on that immediately to drive it to the key number of -14. That didn’t happen, which tells us that sharps are looking to bet Tennessee +14 and are hoping the public will drive the line higher before kickoffs. Sharps haven’t been impressed with Russell Wilson’s at quarterback this year, and believe the Seahawks are very lucky not to have gone 0-2 on their recent road trip to Houston and Indianapolis. The total is down a tick from 41 to 40.5.
JACKSONVILLE AT DENVER:
This game has gotten way too much media attention because of the high number. The line has settled at Denver -27.5. It’s odd to think of -28 as a key number…but it actually is relatively key in a potential blowout. We’re hearing sharps would come in on the Jags at +28. Also, many old-school sharps haven’t bet the dog yet because they’re waiting to see what they can get after the public starts hitting the game this weekend.
ARIZONA AT SAN FRANCISCO:
An opener of San Francisco -11.5 was bet down to -11. Sharps still aren’t impressed with Colin Kaepernick’s passing. Most of the big steam move on Houston last Sunday was anti-Kaepernick…and he had a horrible game in the air. It’s not that sharps love Carson Palmer, but they like his chances to stay within +11.5 against what they consider to be an overrated 49ers team. This total, like many others, has been bet down a tick. An opener of 42 is now 41.5. Sharps are betting a lot of defense, even if the media keeps focusing on Fantasy Football stats.
NEW ORLEANS AT NEW ENGLAND:
An opener of New England -3 was bet down to New Orleans +2.5…which represents very strong support for the Saints. First, it takes a lot of money to move off the key number of three. Second, New England always gets public respect at home…but sharps didn’t wait to see if they could get better than three. This is an aggressive move from the sharps even if it only represents a half a point on the board. And, this also puts the Saints in the teaser window at +8.5, which sharps love. Those interested in the total have bet the Over from 50 to 50.5. But, both of these teams played Under games last week, and are running clock when they can on offense. Game day weather might influence Over/Under assessments as well. Keep an eye on that.
WASHINGTON AT DALLAS:
Big move here on the Cowboys based on their very strong showing against Denver last week. An opener of -3.5 was bet all the way up to -5.5 or -6. Washington’s defense has been very soft this year…and Tony Romo is seen by sharps as a quarterback who can take advantage of bad defenses. We are hearing though that some underdog money might come into play through the weekend if the line solidifies at +6 or better from the Skins perspective. A bye-rested underdog facing a mistake-prone quarterback in a letdown spot will appeal to a certain segment of sharps if the price is right. The Over/Under was bet up from 51 to 53.5 because of the shootout potential for this indoor encounter.
INDIANAPOLIS AT SAN DIEGO (Monday Night):
The Colts are a team that sharps have fallen in love with quickly because they’re getting solid results playing the right way against top competition. That’s why Indianapolis was bet up from pick-em to -1.5 or -2 even though this is their second trip to the West Coast in the past few weeks. Note that San Diego will be a popular teaser choice at that price…both to close out teasers for this weekend…and to open up teasers for the following weekend. We saw a very big move on the total…from early openers in the 46-47 range all the way up to 50. Why so much support for the Over? Our sources tell us that San Diego’s defense is grading out very poorly for the quants, which is triggering shootout potential in good scoring conditions. This was a “math” move for the most part…though the fact that Ryan Matthews may be out with a concussion is part of the picture that increases shootout potential. If San Diego has to pass all night, we’re likely to see an up-and-down game.
