FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (3 Viewers)

[shake zula]

Wisconsin +4

Harvard -3.5

Houston +9

Purdue -4

agreed.great work frosty

 

[TheGooRoo]

TF, I've been thinking about your $500 free bet windfall/quandary, and I think I've got the bet for you:

Denver Broncos -750 ML

Effectively, you have a $500 bonus with a 1x rollover requirement. If you were simply bonus-whoring and the requirements were based on amount wagered, the most effective way to clear it would be to take big favorites. You probably lose a bit over the long-run, but it's easily canceled out by the bonus you're clearing.

It's probably less exciting than making an even-ish bet, but you pocket a nice bit of dough for your trouble unless something goes terribly wrong.

I believe the bet has to be on something with a line between +10,000 and -200.

 

[The Ref]

TF, I've been thinking about your $500 free bet windfall/quandary, and I think I've got the bet for you:

Denver Broncos -750 ML

Effectively, you have a $500 bonus with a 1x rollover requirement. If you were simply bonus-whoring and the requirements were based on amount wagered, the most effective way to clear it would be to take big favorites. You probably lose a bit over the long-run, but it's easily canceled out by the bonus you're clearing.

It's probably less exciting than making an even-ish bet, but you pocket a nice bit of dough for your trouble unless something goes terribly wrong.

I believe the bet has to be on something with a line between +10,000 and -200.

Right - and as far as clearing the bonus I think in this case you would only get credit for the $75 win total meaning you would still have to risk $425 more before you can withdraw.

 

[lumpy19]

TF, I've been thinking about your $500 free bet windfall/quandary, and I think I've got the bet for you:

Denver Broncos -750 ML

Effectively, you have a $500 bonus with a 1x rollover requirement. If you were simply bonus-whoring and the requirements were based on amount wagered, the most effective way to clear it would be to take big favorites. You probably lose a bit over the long-run, but it's easily canceled out by the bonus you're clearing.

It's probably less exciting than making an even-ish bet, but you pocket a nice bit of dough for your trouble unless something goes terribly wrong.

Imo this is the worst possible way to use this bonus. The ideal way to maximize a free play is a parlay (I'll find some links later when I'm not on my phone) but excluding that just bet on any side or total where sports book has a favorable line and it's something with close to even odds. Also try and bet on something that can't push.....not sure what sports books rules are on that but some sports books count pushes as losses on freeplays

 

[ArbyMelt]

TF, I've been thinking about your $500 free bet windfall/quandary, and I think I've got the bet for you:

Denver Broncos -750 ML

Effectively, you have a $500 bonus with a 1x rollover requirement. If you were simply bonus-whoring and the requirements were based on amount wagered, the most effective way to clear it would be to take big favorites. You probably lose a bit over the long-run, but it's easily canceled out by the bonus you're clearing.

It's probably less exciting than making an even-ish bet, but you pocket a nice bit of dough for your trouble unless something goes terribly wrong.

Imo this is the worst possible way to use this bonus. The ideal way to maximize a free play is a parlay (I'll find some links later when I'm not on my phone) but excluding that just bet on any side or total where sports book has a favorable line and it's something with close to even odds. Also try and bet on something that can't push.....not sure what sports books rules are on that but some sports books count pushes as losses on freeplays

I agree. Not sure if you can break down the free play into multiple bets, but I always do 8 3-team parlays (every possible combination) for a free play. I end up getting ~85% of my free play. I think it could be higher if you do 16 4-team parlays. Some places won't let you parlay free plays.

 

[Tiger Fan]

TF, I've been thinking about your $500 free bet windfall/quandary, and I think I've got the bet for you:

Denver Broncos -750 ML

Effectively, you have a $500 bonus with a 1x rollover requirement. If you were simply bonus-whoring and the requirements were based on amount wagered, the most effective way to clear it would be to take big favorites. You probably lose a bit over the long-run, but it's easily canceled out by the bonus you're clearing.

It's probably less exciting than making an even-ish bet, but you pocket a nice bit of dough for your trouble unless something goes terribly wrong.

Imo this is the worst possible way to use this bonus. The ideal way to maximize a free play is a parlay (I'll find some links later when I'm not on my phone) but excluding that just bet on any side or total where sports book has a favorable line and it's something with close to even odds. Also try and bet on something that can't push.....not sure what sports books rules are on that but some sports books count pushes as losses on freeplays

I agree. Not sure if you can break down the free play into multiple bets, but I always do 8 3-team parlays (every possible combination) for a free play. I end up getting ~85% of my free play. I think it could be higher if you do 16 4-team parlays. Some places won't let you parlay free plays.

Hoping for a good prop today, but if not, I need to make a decision before midnight on what I want to do. It seems that SB has been offering these promos weekly, which is crazy, and I'm 1-1 on them for the year (that stupid South Carolina missed chip shot FG cost me the other one) but it's a great way to make a ton of $$

It's a one time bet of $500.

1. A Free Bet is automatically added to your next deposit when you use the promocode: THANKSGIVING in the cashier between now and 11:59pm ET on Thursday, Nov. 28.
2. The Free Sports Bet is equivalent to 50% of your deposit amount.
3. Maximum Free Bet value is $500.
4. Free Bet applies to Straight Wagers, Parlays, Progressive Parlays, Props and Teasers . If Bets, Round Robins and Futures do not qualify for the Free Bet.
5. Maximum payout ratio for Free Bets is 100:1 (Money Line +10,000).
6. Minimum payout ratio for Free Bets is 1:2 (Money Line -200).
7. Free Bet expires within 7 days of issue.
8. We only allow one Free Bet per account/household or environments where computers are shared.
9. Sportsbook reserves the right to modify or cancel this promotion at any time.
10. House rules apply.

 

[lumpy19]

I know there's a mental hurdle there to bet 500 on one game when you normally bet 20 but just do it and keep reloading every week. It's huge EV to bang on these free plays every week. Even if you can only reload once a month it's still lots of free money

 

[regularguy]

First, thank you all for the kind words regarding my son and his college commitment. It's been a fast and furious fall. I had no idea that we would get an offer much less accept. I talked to everyone I could, trying to find a reason why we shouldn't do this. Nobody had a good argument to talk us out of it. It's a fulfillment of our dreams and we couldn't ask for more. Again, thank you all for the nice words, we will keep you updated on his journey.

Congrats! This lady who works for me has a son who committed to UGA (pitcher as well) several years ago. Then, he kept progressing in travel ball (played for East Cobb) and all-star tournaments and wound up getting drafted in the 2nd round. He picked the $500k signing bonus over college and headed off to the minors. I believe the club committed to pay for his college afterwards if things don't work out. So, who knows what the future may hold for you guys.

 

[Tiger Fan]

I know there's a mental hurdle there to bet 500 on one game when you normally bet 20 but just do it and keep reloading every week. It's huge EV to bang on these free plays every week. Even if you can only reload once a month it's still lots of free money

Completely understand. and honestly its not even the mental hurdle, it's having $4k tied up with SB at anytime and the fear of them just freezing my account. I know you guys do this regularly, so I probably need to just get over it

 

[lumpy19]

I know there's a mental hurdle there to bet 500 on one game when you normally bet 20 but just do it and keep reloading every week. It's huge EV to bang on these free plays every week. Even if you can only reload once a month it's still lots of free money

Completely understand. and honestly its not even the mental hurdle, it's having $4k tied up with SB at anytime and the fear of them just freezing my account. I know you guys do this regularly, so I probably need to just get over it

Fwiw I've withdrawn 100k+ from sports book and sister sites and never had a problem. And so I don't sound like a ##### that's not all profit...A lot was money I deposited. There's always a chance they close up shop and steal your money but my guess is they're making plenty of money so the chances of that happening are slim.

 

[jamil]

Wisconsin +4

Harvard -3.5

Houston +9

Purdue -4

Frosty for everybody

 

[Tiger Fan]

I know there's a mental hurdle there to bet 500 on one game when you normally bet 20 but just do it and keep reloading every week. It's huge EV to bang on these free plays every week. Even if you can only reload once a month it's still lots of free money

Completely understand. and honestly its not even the mental hurdle, it's having $4k tied up with SB at anytime and the fear of them just freezing my account. I know you guys do this regularly, so I probably need to just get over it

Fwiw I've withdrawn 100k+ from sports book and sister sites and never had a problem. And so I don't sound like a ##### that's not all profit...A lot was money I deposited. There's always a chance they close up shop and steal your money but my guess is they're making plenty of money so the chances of that happening are slim.

Appreciate that

 

[Good Posting Judge]

1. Minimum payout ratio for Free Bets is 1:2 (Money Line -200).

Ah, well there goes my plan.

I'll take a look at NBA props this AM and see if anything looks decent. I think they have hockey props now, too?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

TF, what's your max on hockey SOG props at SB? I can let you know if anything looks great tonight. With 10 games, there should be a strong play in there.

 

[swirvenirvin]

First, thank you all for the kind words regarding my son and his college commitment. It's been a fast and furious fall. I had no idea that we would get an offer much less accept. I talked to everyone I could, trying to find a reason why we shouldn't do this. Nobody had a good argument to talk us out of it. It's a fulfillment of our dreams and we couldn't ask for more. Again, thank you all for the nice words, we will keep you updated on his journey.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Updated NFL prop record 199-145-11 +20.67

*1 Garrett Graham over 3.5 -150 -SB

*.7 Case Keenum under 255.5 -105 - Bovada

 

[tjnc09]

I know there's a mental hurdle there to bet 500 on one game when you normally bet 20 but just do it and keep reloading every week. It's huge EV to bang on these free plays every week. Even if you can only reload once a month it's still lots of free money

Completely understand. and honestly its not even the mental hurdle, it's having $4k tied up with SB at anytime and the fear of them just freezing my account. I know you guys do this regularly, so I probably need to just get over it

If you have another book, you can always put the $500 on one side and $250 on the other at the other book. You guarantee yourself approx $250 minus some juice. It's not ideal but you may be more comfortable doing something like that.

I posted some concerns about Sportsbook and their willingness to give away so many free bets, but lumpy is right- their name is money and I have never had an issue w a withdrawal

 

[Frostillicus]

TCU +8.5
Ole Miss +2
Georgetown -17.5

 

[tjnc09]

Keep up the good work on props swirven and Frosty

 

[Dan Lambskin]

TCU +8.5

Ole Miss +2

Georgetown -17.5

Do you breakdown how you do with dogs and favs? Just curious since the few bigger dogs I played didn't pan out...I haven't been tailing every play either but just something that stuck out to me (I know Wisconsin did win outright last night)

 

[Warsteinner]

TCU +8.5

Ole Miss +2

Georgetown -17.5

In again

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I wish my sperm produced baseball players.

Mine just makes a mess. :(

 

[mquinnjr]

ESPN just reported live on-air that Winston will not be charged.

 

[Tiger Fan]

TF, what's your max on hockey SOG props at SB? I can let you know if anything looks great tonight. With 10 games, there should be a strong play in there.

$660

 

[Frostillicus]

TCU +8.5

Ole Miss +2

Georgetown -17.5

Do you breakdown how you do with dogs and favs? Just curious since the few bigger dogs I played didn't pan out...I haven't been tailing every play either but just something that stuck out to me (I know Wisconsin did win outright last night)

Double Digit faves: 4-0

5-9.5 faves: 7-3

0-4.5 faves: 19-14

0-4.5 dogs: 6-3

5-9.5 dogs: 7-6

Double Digit dogs: 1-3

 

[Frostillicus]

TCU +8.5

Ole Miss +2

Georgetown -17.5

Do you breakdown how you do with dogs and favs? Just curious since the few bigger dogs I played didn't pan out...I haven't been tailing every play either but just something that stuck out to me (I know Wisconsin did win outright last night)

Double Digit faves: 4-0

5-9.5 faves: 7-3

0-4.5 faves: 19-14

0-4.5 dogs: 6-3

5-9.5 dogs: 7-6

Double Digit dogs: 1-3

Road teams: 20-10

Neutral Games: 15-17

Home teams: 9-2

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

TF, what's your max on hockey SOG props at SB? I can let you know if anything looks great tonight. With 10 games, there should be a strong play in there.

$660

I placed some bets earlier and almost all the lines moved immediately afterwards. Last I checked, the only one left that I still liked a lot was

Blackhawks U32.5 SOG (-120)

They did put up 50 shots in their last game and average almost 35 per game, but the Wild only give up 25/game overall and 23/game on home ice.

scary to bet an under for a team like Chicago who can put up shots in bunches but the Wild are a really tough matchup. They've only allowed 33+ shots in 3 of 29 games and all 3 came on the road.

EDIT: Chicago has gone under this number in 13 of 29 games. So, between the two teams the number has been under in 39 of 58 (67%).

 

[Tiger Fan]

TF, what's your max on hockey SOG props at SB? I can let you know if anything looks great tonight. With 10 games, there should be a strong play in there.

$660

I placed some bets earlier and almost all the lines moved immediately afterwards. Last I checked, the only one left that I still liked a lot was

Blackhawks U32.5 SOG (-120)

They did put up 50 shots in their last game and average almost 35 per game, but the Wild only give up 25/game overall and 23/game on home ice.

scary to bet an under for a team like Chicago who can put up shots in bunches but the Wild are a really tough matchup. They've only allowed 33+ shots in 3 of 29 games and all 3 came on the road.

EDIT: Chicago has gone under this number in 13 of 29 games. So, between the two teams the number has been under in 39 of 58 (67%).

Thx GB. Will likely use this as a backup in case I can't find anything from GR wrt to football/basketball as I actually ahve a chance at watching those.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Here's the best thing I see:

Brook Lopez under 5.5 FTM +115

I estimate this as having a 70-75% chance of hitting. Not as sexy as TNF or a hoops side.

 

[Tiger Fan]

Here's the best thing I see:

Brook Lopez under 5.5 FTM +115

I estimate this as having a 70-75% chance of hitting. Not as sexy as TNF or a hoops side.

it's on national TV. that's a positive step

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Here's the best thing I see:

Brook Lopez under 5.5 FTM +115

I estimate this as having a 70-75% chance of hitting. Not as sexy as TNF or a hoops side.

Just for the sake of discussion, what makes this a strong play?

Looks to me that he has gone over in his last 4 games played despite limited minutes in a couple, he shoots a high percentage, and the Knicks give up more free throw attempts per game than any other team in the league (27.6).

 

[Good Posting Judge]

For whatever reason, centers just don't score much against NYK. Probably because everyone else can score so easily, and so less offense ends up going through them. Their defense is bad overall, but they also play slow which helps.

 

[lumpy19]

Did the blackjack reload again this week...lost the bonus($500) and another $375 of my own

I hate negative variance

 

[Quint]

i'm at a complete loss w/ regard to TNF tonight. don't like either team as a side, and the O/U is just "meh."

i've got no FF interest with players on either team, and my opponents don't have any either, so playing hedges against performance is out.

is it possible to NOT have any action on the only NFL game on tv (which i'm going to watch no matter how bad it will likely suck)? that possibility makes me feel a little empty inside.

 

[PatsFanCT]

i'm at a complete loss w/ regard to TNF tonight. don't like either team as a side, and the O/U is just "meh."

i've got no FF interest with players on either team, and my opponents don't have any either, so playing hedges against performance is out.

is it possible to NOT have any action on the only NFL game on tv (which i'm going to watch no matter how bad it will likely suck)? that possibility makes me feel a little empty inside.

I'm only going Houston because the losing streak has to come to an end sometime, and I can't see Jax beating them twice in one year.

...but laying 3.5 on the road? Jeeze.

 

[shake zula]

In on all three of Frosty's picks and added UL CFB ML for 3u. I think Da Ville's defense will shutdown Cincy.

 

[Quint]

i'm at a complete loss w/ regard to TNF tonight. don't like either team as a side, and the O/U is just "meh."

i've got no FF interest with players on either team, and my opponents don't have any either, so playing hedges against performance is out.

is it possible to NOT have any action on the only NFL game on tv (which i'm going to watch no matter how bad it will likely suck)? that possibility makes me feel a little empty inside.

I'm only going Houston because the losing streak has to come to an end sometime, and I can't see Jax beating them twice in one year.

...but laying 3.5 on the road? Jeeze.

i was thinking JAX ML (+150). they've won two in a row, and Houston is in free-fall. the Texans have been outscored 271-169 in nine straight losses.

but on paper the Texans look like a better team. and they are playing the Jag-u-wires, who haven't won a game at home this season.

arguably, these are the two worst teams in the NFL and betting on either is like hoping the other team just craps the bed a little worse.

i dunno. so lost on this one.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I kind if like the Under in the Cincy/Louisville game tonight...might buy it up from 50.5 to 51 just to be safe but 2 good D's in what's looking to bad weather.

 

[Frostillicus]

Bovada:

Staten (wvu) Under 16.5p -120

Summers (miss) Under 13.5p -120

Henderson (miss) Under 18.5p -120

Foster (ksu) Over 2 made 3s +100

 

[Warsteinner]

Bovada:

Staten (wvu) Under 16.5p -120

Summers (miss) Under 13.5p -120

Henderson (miss) Under 18.5p -120

Foster (ksu) Over 2 made 3s +100

Got all but Summers. He's already down to 13.

 

[Warsteinner]

TCU +8.5

Ole Miss +2

Georgetown -17.5

Do you breakdown how you do with dogs and favs? Just curious since the few bigger dogs I played didn't pan out...I haven't been tailing every play either but just something that stuck out to me (I know Wisconsin did win outright last night)

Double Digit faves: 4-0

5-9.5 faves: 7-3

0-4.5 faves: 19-14

0-4.5 dogs: 6-3

5-9.5 dogs: 7-6

Double Digit dogs: 1-3

Road teams: 20-10

Neutral Games: 15-17

Home teams: 9-2

Is there an app to keep track of wagers for iPhone? I just throw money and don't track ####. I'd like to become a little more organized.

 

[Frostillicus]

TCU +8.5

Ole Miss +2

Georgetown -17.5

Do you breakdown how you do with dogs and favs? Just curious since the few bigger dogs I played didn't pan out...I haven't been tailing every play either but just something that stuck out to me (I know Wisconsin did win outright last night)

Double Digit faves: 4-0

5-9.5 faves: 7-3

0-4.5 faves: 19-14

0-4.5 dogs: 6-3

5-9.5 dogs: 7-6

Double Digit dogs: 1-3

Road teams: 20-10

Neutral Games: 15-17

Home teams: 9-2

Is there an app to keep track of wagers for iPhone? I just throw money and don't track ####. I'd like to become a little more organized.

Excel for me.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

TCU +8.5

Ole Miss +2

Georgetown -17.5

Do you breakdown how you do with dogs and favs? Just curious since the few bigger dogs I played didn't pan out...I haven't been tailing every play either but just something that stuck out to me (I know Wisconsin did win outright last night)

Double Digit faves: 4-0

5-9.5 faves: 7-3

0-4.5 faves: 19-14

0-4.5 dogs: 6-3

5-9.5 dogs: 7-6

Double Digit dogs: 1-3

Road teams: 20-10

Neutral Games: 15-17

Home teams: 9-2

Is there an app to keep track of wagers for iPhone? I just throw money and don't track ####. I'd like to become a little more organized.

There's a really good, multi-tabbed spreadsheet that someone at 2+2 came up with. I'll try to find it, it's great.

 

[loser]

DeAndre Hopkins +5.5 yds receiving vs Ace Sanders (-115)

 

[ChainsawU]

I have my last Org Behavior class in an hour. And after tonight I will have consumed more alcohol in the past three days than I did in the entire 2013 calendar year.

 

[The Ref]

I know we have some poker players in here so I'll tell the story. Playing PLO8 with $1600 behind and that's more or less average stack. I woke up to 3x4x5x6x in the cutoff - 6 people preflop for $10.

Flop comes down 4 7 8 . SB Bets $50. BB pots to $210. I flat. Fold. Next guy Pots All in for $750. Button Shoves. SB Shoves BB Shoves. All have between $1200-$2500 other then the guy who all in shoved.

Our move. Calling $~1400 or folding is the only option we have.

 

[got_nugs]

I know we have some poker players in here so I'll tell the story. Playing PLO8 with $1600 behind and that's more or less average stack. I woke up to 3x4x5x6x in the cutoff - 6 people preflop for $10.

Flop comes down 4 7 8 . SB Bets $50. BB pots to $210. I flat. Fold. Next guy Pots All in for $750. Button Shoves. SB Shoves BB Shoves. All have between $1200-$2500 other then the guy who all in shoved.

Our move. Calling $~1400 or folding is the only option we have.

Guessing the 5/6 aren't diamonds in your stash?

 

[LOCO]

Texans win. Played pats tough. Just don't think they lost to jags TWICE???

 

[The Ref]

I know we have some poker players in here so I'll tell the story. Playing PLO8 with $1600 behind and that's more or less average stack. I woke up to 3x4x5x6x in the cutoff - 6 people preflop for $10.

Flop comes down 4 7 8 . SB Bets $50. BB pots to $210. I flat. Fold. Next guy Pots All in for $750. Button Shoves. SB Shoves BB Shoves. All have between $1200-$2500 other then the guy who all in shoved.

Our move. Calling $~1400 or folding is the only option we have.

Guessing the 5/6 aren't diamonds in your stash?

Absolutely not. I had rainbow.

 

[Treynwreck3]

Jags ML for a bit, because the Texans have cot me more money than I'll ever admit.