FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (5 Viewers)

[Raider Nation]

 

[NIU Kicker]

So Ohio St Vs Clemson in the Orange Bowl? I think I'm going to have to make that one.

 

[ScoobySnack]

Given how the games have gone today. I would appreciate the Saints putting up some more points, plus I know some of you have the over.

 

[ChainsawU]

RN what is the weather like in Chicago.

 

[Raider Nation]

RN what is the weather like in Chicago.

Probably cold.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

RN what is the weather like in Chicago.

Snowing

 

[got_nugs]

saw-it HAS to be at 44, right?

 

[modogg]

saw-it HAS to be at 44, right?

i grabbed it a little bit higher with the party bus . Thought about trying to middle with the 2nd half under, but opted not to. At least the Saints won

 

[pack100]

The Colston replay that put him down at the 1... Saints settled for a field goal after that. Good bye over

 

[The Ref]

I'm on the Unders for tackles tonight

Lofton U8.5

Vaccaro U5.5

Kuechly U8.5

SWEEP!

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

:(

 

[ScoobySnack]

So here is the situation I have for tomorrow night. Cowboys ML to finish a 100/1,100 parlay and Cowboys +7.5 to finish a 50/900 teaser...any suggestions on how/if to hedge.

 

[Raider Nation]

Doc, did you pick up any Persian in your travels? If you went to Tehran like they did tonight in Homeland, would you be able to communicate with the locals? Claire Danes makes it sound fairly effortless. Of course, she's probably saying gibberish and I don't know any better.

 

[The Ref]

:(

WE MOVE ON!!!!!!

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Army/Navy UNDER 54.5

Seven straight years this game has gone under 48 points, not sure why this year would be different. Both teams know each other extremely well, I see this following recent years.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Saints crew doesn't typically give out many assists. That held up for the road team as Carolina only got 2 tonight, but somehow the Saints got 20 of them. That killed the Lofton and Vaccaro bets which I thought were both strong.

50 tackle opportunities for the Saints D in the game and they somehow handed out 39 solos and 20 assists.

 

[ChainsawU]

So here is the situation I have for tomorrow night. Cowboys ML to finish a 100/1,100 parlay and Cowboys +7.5 to finish a 50/900 teaser...any suggestions on how/if to hedge.

For all the Philly fans, TIA.

 

[modogg]

So here is the situation I have for tomorrow night. Cowboys ML to finish a 100/1,100 parlay and Cowboys +7.5 to finish a 50/900 teaser...any suggestions on how/if to hedge.

For all the Philly fans, TIA.

I have Cowpokes +5 as the last leg of a teaser as well. Not in Scooby's ballpark, but a few hundred if it hits. So it doesn't happen very often, but call me a Cowboy fan tomorrow! A chicago Bears win by up to 4 points will be for me since i will hedge by taking Bears +1.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Doc, did you pick up any Persian in your travels? If you went to Tehran like they did tonight in Homeland, would you be able to communicate with the locals? Claire Danes makes it sound fairly effortless. Of course, she's probably saying gibberish and I don't know any better.

I used to know some Pashto, a little Dari and of course Arabic. I'm no JZilla though.

 

[mquinnjr]

Doc, did you pick up any Persian in your travels? If you went to Tehran like they did tonight in Homeland, would you be able to communicate with the locals? Claire Danes makes it sound fairly effortless. Of course, she's probably saying gibberish and I don't know any better.

Her French was

 

[ChainsawU]

What's the deal with steak temperatures.

 

[ChainsawU]

What's the deal with rare steak. What is is laced with ancient gold?

 

[ScoobySnack]

So here is the situation I have for tomorrow night. Cowboys ML to finish a 100/1,100 parlay and Cowboys +7.5 to finish a 50/900 teaser...any suggestions on how/if to hedge.

For all the Philly fans, TIA.

I am from the philly area and root for the Eagles as well but I like $$ better.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

So here is the situation I have for tomorrow night. Cowboys ML to finish a 100/1,100 parlay and Cowboys +7.5 to finish a 50/900 teaser...any suggestions on how/if to hedge.

My buddy who's on a insane run these last few weeks max bet cowboys early in the week

I however do not trust prime time Romo...

 

[ScoobySnack]

So here is the situation I have for tomorrow night. Cowboys ML to finish a 100/1,100 parlay and Cowboys +7.5 to finish a 50/900 teaser...any suggestions on how/if to hedge.

My buddy who's on a insane run these last few weeks max bet cowboys early in the week

I however do not trust prime time Romo...

I guess after being burned by the Bears against the Rams and watching them loose to the Vikings last week....I just don't think the Bears are good at the moment. So it was more of a bet against the Bears than it was for the Cowboys.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

So Ohio St Vs Clemson in the Orange Bowl? I think I'm going to have to make that one.

Over

 

[E-Z Glider]

Got an early Xmas present yesterday. Was looking through the player props a couple minutes before the games when I saw this...

STRAIGHT BET

[19664] TOTAL u78½-120
(M LYNCH (SEA) RECEIVING YDS vrs M LYNCH (SEA) RECEIVING YDS)

Pretty sure it was supposed to be "rushing" not "receiving" (he had 0 receiving yards, lol). Wasnt sure what would happen, so I plunked down 1/3 of my bankroll. Ticket was graded and my account is back in the black for the first time all season!

Wonder if it went un-noticed since he was under 78.5yds rushing anyway?

 

[Pumpnick]

Wondering why I can't find a line on pens blue jackets tonight on 5dimes?

 

[swirvenirvin]

Saints crew doesn't typically give out many assists. That held up for the road team as Carolina only got 2 tonight, but somehow the Saints got 20 of them. That killed the Lofton and Vaccaro bets which I thought were both strong.

50 tackle opportunities for the Saints D in the game and they somehow handed out 39 solos and 20 assists.

I didnt follow so I am confused. I saw a sweep on the tackles did that not happen?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Saints crew doesn't typically give out many assists. That held up for the road team as Carolina only got 2 tonight, but somehow the Saints got 20 of them. That killed the Lofton and Vaccaro bets which I thought were both strong.

50 tackle opportunities for the Saints D in the game and they somehow handed out 39 solos and 20 assists.

I didnt follow so I am confused. I saw a sweep on the tackles did that not happen?

sweep the wrong way. all 3 bets lost.

10 solos for Kuechly so he earned his over.

5 solos + 1 assist for Vaccaro...just missed.

6 solos + 4 assists for Lofton. Not what I was expecting.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

So Ohio St Vs Clemson in the Orange Bowl? I think I'm going to have to make that one.

Over

I was also looking at taking Clemson, first game after a first loss teams often come out uninspired or flat.

 

[The Ref]

Saints crew doesn't typically give out many assists. That held up for the road team as Carolina only got 2 tonight, but somehow the Saints got 20 of them. That killed the Lofton and Vaccaro bets which I thought were both strong.

50 tackle opportunities for the Saints D in the game and they somehow handed out 39 solos and 20 assists.

I didnt follow so I am confused. I saw a sweep on the tackles did that not happen?

sweep the wrong way. all 3 bets lost.

10 solos for Kuechly so he earned his over.

5 solos + 1 assist for Vaccaro...just missed.

6 solos + 4 assists for Lofton. Not what I was expecting.

Yeah i was being a smart ###.... I was along for the ride and liked the leans myself. We have all been there. As I said....

We Move On!

 

[Dan Lambskin]

So Ohio St Vs Clemson in the Orange Bowl? I think I'm going to have to make that one.

Over

I was also looking at taking Clemson, first game after a first loss teams often come out uninspired or flat.

Interesting factoid I came across after the Michigan game: Buckeyes are 271-0-1 when scoring 35+ points in a game

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Fightin' Ditkas +1.5.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Ok, I need some help here from guys who have gambled a long time or have systems of any kind. Basically I need some help understanding what I have here. You can respond here or PM me if you like, would really appreciate it.

OK.

The following bowls I got within 3 points of the total or 1 point of the side:

New Mexico (exact on both)

Potato (exact on total)

Poinsetta (exact on total, 1 point off side)

New Orleans (3 off total)

Vegas (2 points off total)

Hawaii (Exact spread)

Pizza (1 point of total)

Military (2 points off total, 1 point off side)

Belk (Exact total, 1 point off side)

Holiday (2 off total)

Indy (3 off total)

Car care (1 off total, 1 off side)

Bell (exact total, 1 off side)

BW3 (2 off total, 1 off side)

Music city (exact total, 1 off side)

Liberty (1 off total)

dallas (1 off total)

Outback (one off side, 2 off total)

capital one (exact total, 1 off side)

Rose (3 off total, .5 off side)

Orange (1 off total)

Sugar (Exact total)

Fiesta (Exact side)

Cotton (Exact total)

Go daddy (1 off total)

So 25 Bowls fit that criteria (34 occurrences), of those 11 of them I got very close on the total and side. There was no computer or formulas, just several rankings, SOS, and best wins considered and a best guess based on what I know about handicapping.

Bowl games where I was off by more than 4 off side, or more than 6 off total

Go Daddy (7 off side including wrong favorite)

Cotton (4 off side)

Compass (12 over total)

Gator (6 off side and incorrect favorite)

Chick-fil-a (5.5 off side)

Alamo (12 under total)

Holiday (6 points off side)

Beef (6 points off side)

Hawaii (10 under total)

New Era (9 under total)

So ten there. All the others were in the 2-3.5 side range or 4-6 total range (which to me is just beyond the estimated standard deviation, but within the range of acceptance). The ten above are the ones I'd call outliers.

Here is the issue, I don't know what to do with this data.

28 totals predicted:

22 within 3 points

24 with 6

4 9 points or worse

34 sides predicted:

12 within 1 point

28 within 3.5 points or better

6 four points or worse

5 six or seven points off

What do you guys think? Is this just incidental data or is there something there I can ride? Play all the outliers for sure? Do nothing? Find a new hobby? Answers appreciated.

Here are the CFB outliers from my handicapping, playing each for 1u

Ball State +8.5

Boise State/Washington OVER 46.5

Fresno State/SMU UNDER 59

Texas/Oregon State OVER 55

Northwestern +1.5

LSU -3.5

Pitt/Ole Miss OVER 51.5

Arkansas State +5

Will bump in a month to see what happened.

ETA: ASU was actually -5, no bet.

Gonna try this again this year. Last year I was 5-2 on the plays that I deemed within the safe area, so I'm going to double down on those plays this year. Going through all the games and then will apply my formula today and tomorrow. I was awful last year on bowl sides, but pretty decent on totals. Not going to pre-bet any outside the picks that meet all my criteria this year.

 

[ScoobySnack]

Fightin' Ditkas +1.5.

28-27 or 21-10 Cowboys victory and we can both taste victory!!

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Johnny Detroit ‏@Johnny_Detroit 4m

LVH in Las Vegas had FOURTEEN tickets purchased on the #Auburn Tigers to win the BCS Championship at 1000-1.

 

[ScoobySnack]

Johnny Detroit ‏@Johnny_Detroit 4m

LVH in Las Vegas had FOURTEEN tickets purchased on the #Auburn Tigers to win the BCS Championship at 1000-1.

I wonder what the odds were on FSU to start the season?

 

[NIU Kicker]

Johnny Detroit ‏@Johnny_Detroit 4m

LVH in Las Vegas had FOURTEEN tickets purchased on the #Auburn Tigers to win the BCS Championship at 1000-1.

I wonder what the odds were on FSU to start the season?

I had small tickets on Tenn, Miss at and ole Miss becuase "any Sec team can win it".

Whoops.

That is sick though - imagine holding one of the tickets for just $100 right now.

I'd be out there with $50K betting the ML.

 

[swirvenirvin]

*1 Murray longest rush over 14.5 -120 - The last 7 teams that have faced the Bears have had a RB go over this, and the Rams had two guys go over.

*.8 Murray over 87.5

*.8 Ter. Williams under 32.5

*.8 Witten over 4.5 -135

*.8 Bennett under 4 -130

*.5 M. Austin under 2.5

*.5 M. Austin under 29.5

 

[ScoobySnack]

Johnny Detroit ‏@Johnny_Detroit 4m

LVH in Las Vegas had FOURTEEN tickets purchased on the #Auburn Tigers to win the BCS Championship at 1000-1.

I wonder what the odds were on FSU to start the season?

I had small tickets on Tenn, Miss at and ole Miss becuase "any Sec team can win it".

Whoops.

That is sick though - imagine holding one of the tickets for just $100 right now.

I'd be out there with $50K betting the ML.

Found an ESPN insider article that had FSU listed as 25-1.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Locking in Denver O55.5 now

 

[Leroy Hoard]

So Ohio St Vs Clemson in the Orange Bowl? I think I'm going to have to make that one.

Over

I was also looking at taking Clemson, first game after a first loss teams often come out uninspired or flat.

Interesting factoid I came across after the Michigan game: Buckeyes are 271-0-1 when scoring 35+ points in a game

No wonder that Michigan 2 point conversion didn't work.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Any chance Witten goes for 300 yards and 5 TDs tonight?

 

[Man In The Box]

Any chance Witten goes for 300 yards and 5 TDs tonight?

Probably about the same chance Jeffery has of pulling a hammy during warmups

 

[The Ref]

If Witten gets 14 points tonight in PPR, I break my 13 year old leagues all time single week scoring record.

 

[optionmaven]

Locking in Denver O55.5 now

Set It, And Forget It. Until it breaks down, that is one good looking chart.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

trying to make back some of last night's losses.

Major Wright U6.5 tackles (-115 at 5d)

Far as I can tell, the only time a safety facing the Cowboys offense hit 7 tackles was in week 3 when the Rams had 2 players do it. Also Wright sat out last week with a hamstring injury so seems like that could easily tighten up on him in the cold tonight.

 

[Pumpnick]

first td dallas rushing +980

 

[pack100]

Any chance Witten goes for 300 yards and 5 TDs tonight?

Probably about the same chance Jeffery has of pulling a hammy during warmups

Yes pull the hammy!!!