FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (10 Viewers)

[lumpy19]

All in on Riley cooper over 3.5 receptions

Maxed at sb and bol

Brutal beat, lump. :(

Oh well easy come easy go...got slaughtered on props yesterday

 

[Pumpnick]

So will bengals and eagles ml move up or down?

 

[Dan Lambskin]

FWIW I have these today

Navy -6

Over 55.5

Parlay of those (o56 though)

Asu O 71.5

 

[lumpy19]

For you blackjack bonus whores

Got an email from hollywoodsportsbook.eu which is a sportsbook skin

50% up to $250 casino bonus(~$200 EV) but a funny thing happened, when i deposited my $500 I got the $250 casino bonus and a $250 free bet. If you have an old account there it's worth checking out, bonus code is CHIP50S

You've proven yourself a loyal player in the past so I wanted to say thanks, and invite you to return toHollywoodSportsbook with a special Cash Bonus which is already in your Casino balance, and a 50% Reload Bonus this weekend.

Simply punch-in Promo-Code CHIP50S when you visit the cashier to redeem the 50% Casino Bonus on your next deposit.

*Terms and Conditions:

1. Promo Code expires on January 6th, 2014 - 11pm EST
2. Bonus Code can only be redeemed once (even if get 2 or more emails about it)
3. Bonus money is for use in the Casino area ONLY and it can't be used in the Sportsbook or PokerRoom
4. Promo Code max bonus award is of $250
5. Unused Bonus money will be withdrawn on the following Monday at 11:00 pm ET
6. We only allow one bonus per account/household or environments where computers are shared.
7. Offers available by invitation only
8. HollywoodSportsbook reserves the right to modify or cancel this promotion at any time.
9. House Rules apply

 

[Romofan]

Tomorrow:

Steelers -7

Saints -11

2-0 yesterday

For today (so far) I'm going with:

Miss -3

Might add later

 

[mquinnjr]

Not sure what to think of that Texas/Oregon game. I'd like to think Oregon won't care but then they land on the turf and run the Longhorns in circles.

I like the Over on this one. Up to 68, but punching this for 1U. Mack Brown's last game as HC, and both of these teams are capable of putting up points.

 

[Tiger Fan]

MTSU +6.5 1u even

 

[gmbacm]

For you blackjack bonus whores

Got an email from hollywoodsportsbook.eu which is a sportsbook skin

50% up to $250 casino bonus(~$200 EV) but a funny thing happened, when i deposited my $500 I got the $250 casino bonus and a $250 free bet. If you have an old account there it's worth checking out, bonus code is CHIP50S

You've proven yourself a loyal player in the past so I wanted to say thanks, and invite you to return toHollywoodSportsbook with a special Cash Bonus which is already in your Casino balance, and a 50% Reload Bonus this weekend.Simply punch-in Promo-Code CHIP50S when you visit the cashier to redeem the 50% Casino Bonus on your next deposit.

*Terms and Conditions:

1. Promo Code expires on January 6th, 2014 - 11pm EST
2. Bonus Code can only be redeemed once (even if get 2 or more emails about it)
3. Bonus money is for use in the Casino area ONLY and it can't be used in the Sportsbook or PokerRoom
4. Promo Code max bonus award is of $250
5. Unused Bonus money will be withdrawn on the following Monday at 11:00 pm ET
6. We only allow one bonus per account/household or environments where computers are shared.
7. Offers available by invitation only
8. HollywoodSportsbook reserves the right to modify or cancel this promotion at any time.
9. House Rules apply

how many sb skin accounts do you have? last 2 i tried to make they let me create the account but it was set to inactive when i logged in. When i inquired they said I couldnt have new accounts on skins. sucks as the ones i do have dont have bonus promos.

 

[lumpy19]

For you blackjack bonus whores

Got an email from hollywoodsportsbook.eu which is a sportsbook skin

50% up to $250 casino bonus(~$200 EV) but a funny thing happened, when i deposited my $500 I got the $250 casino bonus and a $250 free bet. If you have an old account there it's worth checking out, bonus code is CHIP50S

You've proven yourself a loyal player in the past so I wanted to say thanks, and invite you to return toHollywoodSportsbook with a special Cash Bonus which is already in your Casino balance, and a 50% Reload Bonus this weekend.Simply punch-in Promo-Code CHIP50S when you visit the cashier to redeem the 50% Casino Bonus on your next deposit.

*Terms and Conditions:

1. Promo Code expires on January 6th, 2014 - 11pm EST
2. Bonus Code can only be redeemed once (even if get 2 or more emails about it)
3. Bonus money is for use in the Casino area ONLY and it can't be used in the Sportsbook or PokerRoom
4. Promo Code max bonus award is of $250
5. Unused Bonus money will be withdrawn on the following Monday at 11:00 pm ET
6. We only allow one bonus per account/household or environments where computers are shared.
7. Offers available by invitation only
8. HollywoodSportsbook reserves the right to modify or cancel this promotion at any time.
9. House Rules apply

how many sb skin accounts do you have? last 2 i tried to make they let me create the account but it was set to inactive when i logged in. When i inquired they said I couldnt have new accounts on skins. sucks as the ones i do have dont have bonus promos.

I have accounts at all of them. I was limited at all of them until recently. They changed the max wagers from risk amount to win amount(ex max 500 to win 454 was the old limit, new limit would be 550 to win 500 at -110) This change seemed to reset all my accounts to full limits on everything, it's crazy but i'm hitting them all for as much as i can as fast as i can until they cut me again. Trying to keep my exposure limited but still take advantage of everything.

 

[The Ref]

Only game I kind of like today is Ole Miss.

Also - College Player Props at RB!

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Only game I kind of like today is Ole Miss.

Also - College Player Props at RB!

Which ones should I bet?

 

[The Ref]

Only game I kind of like today is Ole Miss.

Also - College Player Props at RB!

Which ones should I bet?

PM Gooroo.

 

[Merton Hanks]

Parker - Middle Tennessee State University under 68.5 rushing yards -120

Playing with a sports hernia and a torn labrum in his hip should be difficult today. He has been moved off the primary 2 deep depth chart at RB, meaning he is a rb3 at best today, for a team that should be playing from behind. He is lined as if he should see a full load today, I doubt this happens. Good luck!

 

[The Ref]

Almost the end of an era for me. I just cashed in all my season props at sportsbook.... i figured Id take some of the won money and spread some around on some stuff including a semi sizeable bet on the NFC SB line....... I'm cut to $5 on everything now.

It's sad, but I may of just hit the withdrawal button for the last time (Lacy ROY Pending) on my 12 year old account. You may have got me the first 8 years sportsbook, but hows the last 4 years in ya ###.

 

[Romofan]

Miss -3

Adding:

Tex +14.5

 

[Raider Nation]

Open letter to Middle Tennessee's defensive coordinator:

You might wanna put more than three D lineman on the line of scrimmage against Navy's option attack so that you are able to make first contact on the ball carrier before he gains 8 yards on every play.

Moron.

 

[lumpy19]

5th casino reload bonus, just finished up +1400 this week, +3149 over 5 weeks, running hot like fire

6th casino reload $-172

6 weeks +$2977

Expected EV +$2400

7th casino reload +1147

7 weeks 4124

expected 2800

I sportsbook.ag

 

[The Ref]

Third different RB in for MTSU..... none of them Parker.

This is very good.... hopefully he sees some time.

He is 100% dressed. I saw him standing next to the rest of the RB's.

 

[regularguy]

7th casino reload +1147

7 weeks 4124

expected 2800

I sportsbook.ag

Are you still able to download via wire every week? I'm stuck waiting for a check for 2 weeks and counting and unable to partake.

 

[The Ref]

Open letter to Middle Tennessee's defensive coordinator:

You might wanna put more than three D lineman on the line of scrimmage against Navy's option attack so that you are able to make first contact on the ball carrier before he gains 8 yards on every play.

Moron.

You dont get it. They want to hold them to 9 yards a carry and stop them from 39 yard runs. Thats a winning formula.

 

[Raider Nation]

This game is so over. A BAD play for Navy gains 5 yards.

See you boys at 3:15.

 

[Tiger Fan]

5th casino reload bonus, just finished up +1400 this week, +3149 over 5 weeks, running hot like fire

6th casino reload $-172

6 weeks +$2977

Expected EV +$2400

7th casino reload +1147

7 weeks 4124

expected 2800

I sportsbook.ag

how are you calculating EV?

 

[Raider Nation]

LMFAO at the MTSU DE talking trash at the Navy sideline after the first play which went for less than 10 yards the entire quarter!!!

 

[tjnc09]

Couple of autoplays tomorrow

Navy/MTSU OVER 54.5 1.5u

Georgia Tech +3 1.5u

Also playing Techa Tech +14.5

Adding some other sides too, joining TF on Miss State and adding 1.5u a piece on OU +15 and UNLV +6.5 as both of those are borderline system plays and good enough for me.

I like GA Tech a lot too. Also playing the u55.5 for that game.

 

[tjnc09]

lump, are you teasing the four NFL games next weekend? All are at 2.5 except CIN -7.5

 

[Frostillicus]

Kansas -15
Oklahoma -3.5
Delaware +5.5

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Man all these short FGs are killing the over. <_<

 

[jamil]

Kansas -15

Oklahoma -3.5

Delaware +5.5

In. :frostyfive:

 

[tjnc09]

Kansas -15

Oklahoma -3.5

Delaware +5.5

Tailing Kansas and Delaware.

I took LA Tech +3.5 earlier this morning

 

[Romofan]

Man all these short FGs are killing the over. <_<

Yup. I'm on the over too. Not looking good. That last fumble hurts.

 

[tjnc09]

Man all these short FGs are killing the over. <_<

Now the clown fumbles in the red zone.

 

[lumpy19]

7th casino reload +1147

7 weeks 4124

expected 2800

I sportsbook.ag

Are you still able to download via wire every week? I'm stuck waiting for a check for 2 weeks and counting and unable to partake.

I can but i've been leaving it in there because the wire fees are $100/transfer so trying to keep it to 2 requests/month. I figure this also helps me stay active a little longer.

 

[lumpy19]

lump, are you teasing the four NFL games next weekend? All are at 2.5 except CIN -7.5

if the lines stay where they are then i'll be a 4 teamer for me

 

[The Ref]

No Parker in the 1H....

This makes me but Im nervous he wont play at all and then I'll be

 

[lumpy19]

5th casino reload bonus, just finished up +1400 this week, +3149 over 5 weeks, running hot like fire

6th casino reload $-172

6 weeks +$2977

Expected EV +$2400

7th casino reload +1147

7 weeks 4124

expected 2800

I sportsbook.ag

how are you calculating EV?

detailed explanation http://www.thegamblingtimes.com/board/content/calculating-expected-value-bonus-170/

$500 bonus X 35x rollover = 17500 rollover requirement

using house edge of ~.5% X 17500 wagered = 87.50 gets eaten up by house edge

500 bonus - 87.50 = 412.50 EV each time bonus is played

 

[lumpy19]

Parker - Middle Tennessee State University under 68.5 rushing yards -120

Playing with a sports hernia and a torn labrum in his hip should be difficult today. He has been moved off the primary 2 deep depth chart at RB, meaning he is a rb3 at best today, for a team that should be playing from behind. He is lined as if he should see a full load today, I doubt this happens. Good luck!

I like when you post

 

[The Ref]

Parker - Middle Tennessee State University under 68.5 rushing yards -120

Playing with a sports hernia and a torn labrum in his hip should be difficult today. He has been moved off the primary 2 deep depth chart at RB, meaning he is a rb3 at best today, for a team that should be playing from behind. He is lined as if he should see a full load today, I doubt this happens. Good luck!

I like when you post

I'll like it a bunch more if he gets a carry.

 

[ScoobySnack]

Parker - Middle Tennessee State University under 68.5 rushing yards -120

Playing with a sports hernia and a torn labrum in his hip should be difficult today. He has been moved off the primary 2 deep depth chart at RB, meaning he is a rb3 at best today, for a team that should be playing from behind. He is lined as if he should see a full load today, I doubt this happens. Good luck!

I like when you post

I'll like it a bunch more if he gets a carry.

Just hope that one carry doesn't go for 69 yrds!

 

[The Ref]

BOOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[The Ref]

Parker - Middle Tennessee State University under 68.5 rushing yards -120

Playing with a sports hernia and a torn labrum in his hip should be difficult today. He has been moved off the primary 2 deep depth chart at RB, meaning he is a rb3 at best today, for a team that should be playing from behind. He is lined as if he should see a full load today, I doubt this happens. Good luck!

I like when you post

I'll like it a bunch more if he gets a carry.

Just hope that one carry doesn't go for 69 yrds!

Dont even kid like that..... It would be just my luck to have carry #2 go for 68 yards.

 

[tjnc09]

THERE IT IS!!

 

[D in the D]

Kansas -15

Oklahoma -3.5

Delaware +5.5

Frosty the Dough Man

 

[Romofan]

Man all these short FGs are killing the over. <_<

Yup. I'm on the over too. Not looking good. That last fumble hurts.

My god these teams hate scoring points. Wtf.

 

[Statorama]

5Dimes has Saints ML at +125. I like it

 

[lumpy19]

We should all just stop talking about it. This is the first year I've kept detailed records but this feels like much better than most years. Not that I believe in stupid things like jinxes or curses, but when it comes to gambling I definitely believe in stupid things like jinxes or curses.

So you are fully expecting some mean regression stuff or you feel like you are just more locked in this year?

Keeping detailed records and posting everything here has also made me only play games I really like instead of in the past where I did some analysis but there was more shooting from the hip. This year I've researched everything before playing it, and so there have been games that I liked and ended up passing on as well as games I thought I liked one side and then ended up switching. Obviously that's gone well. I'm hitting at 60% this year on the nose, so that does seem like there should be some regression at some point, but maybe I'm just really, really good. That's what I like to pretend at least.

Also as mentioned here earlier I've always done better pre-conference than in conference because most of my plays are based on stats and what I see by watching way too many games with very little attention paid to intangible things like bigger home court edges, conference rivalries, travel schedules, and "look ahead" spots which seem to hold more sway over conference games. So I don't expect to hit 60% from here on since conference play is getting going, but I'm hoping I can still pick winners at a 55% or more rate. We shall see. It's been a fun year so far.

If you really want to track how you're doing and take all the bias out track your CLV(closing line value)

You bet team a -3, when the game tips off the betting market has team a at -4, +1.0 CLV

This number is a good indicator of whether you're lucky or whether the guys betting big money agree with you. If you have negative CLV but are winning money you can expect your winning will not continue. If you have positive CLV you're doing something right and keep doing it.

CLV is very easy to track in basketball because most points are equal. It's a little more difficult in a sport like football where the 3 and 7 are so valuable.

 

[The Ref]

Is Arizona St really 15.5 better then Texas Tech?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Is Arizona St really 15.5 better then Texas Tech?

No

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Should be 38-10 Navy right now.

 

[The Ref]

Also - another under....

 

[wazoo11]

Is Arizona St really 15.5 better then Texas Tech?

No

Taylor Kelly will carve up Texas Tech's defense.