FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (11 Viewers)

[John Bender]

I pick my spots in tennis when posting the plays here. If I'm not really strong on a play, I don't post it.

Somehow the FFA talked me into Jack Sock so I'm not even counting that awesome win on my official ffawt tally.

I'll likely have a few more but early round dogs are where I do best. Later round stuff gets tough. Very tough.

 

[got_nugs]

Anderson broke back with ease as Frenchy was serving out the set. ####### ridiculous. Pissed right now.

Up 2 sets to love. Lose the 4th set in a tiebreaker, try to serve out the match and get broken. This wasn't even my play and I sound like stuckey

I think we have a few contestants for crappiest beat last night/this morning. I think my vote still goes to that f'n rockets-thunder game. Houston having 72 or 73 points in the first half and 20 in the second half is just b.s.

73/19.

Yaaaay gamblin

 

[The Ref]

Anderson broke back with ease as Frenchy was serving out the set. ####### ridiculous. Pissed right now.

Up 2 sets to love. Lose the 4th set in a tiebreaker, try to serve out the match and get broken. This wasn't even my play and I sound like stuckey

I think we have a few contestants for crappiest beat last night/this morning. I think my vote still goes to that f'n rockets-thunder game. Houston having 72 or 73 points in the first half and 20 in the second half is just b.s.

Halak Stl made 27 saves last night. His under was set at 26.5. Of the 31 SOG the LA Kings had 11 of them happened in :07. 3 different bunches of 5, 3 and 3. On top of that one "save" Halak was credited with making flat out hit the side of the net.

I know it's a niche thing, but in the world of SOG props this was disgusting.

 

[got_nugs]

Sounds like yesterday was a full on dumpster fire. Glad we got that out of the way before the weekend.

 

[John Bender]

Huge dumpster fire.

Try watching that Anderson match at 3 am and trying to sleep after he blew serving out the set. I lost 4 hours of sleep and 4 years off my life

 

[shake zula]

I just Tailed yesterday

Slept like #### because I was up watching the matches and had no time to research.

It won't happen again, I'm the jinx on shakes stuff. Sorry shakey at. Al

That is the double ####ty thing about these tennis tails is trying to follow them means no sleep. I think I've had my fill for the year myself, so until next ATP (or whatever the hell it is).

JFC guys I'm sorry. I don't have words. Everything went wrong. I'll be tailing Bender from here on out.

That is the ####ty part about tennis, I have 4 days in a row where I wake up 4-5 times a night to check the scores on my cell. Not good for work.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

You guys had an Australian Open slumber party?

Bunch of bad beats yesterday across the board it seems, that Houston/OKC Over is as bad as it gets and the reason I should never bet the NBA. In fact, had I not tailed that bet it probably would have won easily. I blame myself.

 

[got_nugs]

Huge dumpster fire.

Try watching that Anderson match at 3 am and trying to sleep after he blew serving out the set. I lost 4 hours of sleep and 4 years off my life

You were not alone, I was there man. Back up at 6 to get the offspring ready for school. Gonna pour coffee in my eyes, see if that's more effective. Seems reasonable. Maybe I'll just have a beer before this inspection...or better yet a zima.

I see a few association plays I like tonight. Hey it can't be worse, ammiright?

 

[shake zula]

Huge dumpster fire.

Try watching that Anderson match at 3 am and trying to sleep after he blew serving out the set. I lost 4 hours of sleep and 4 years off my life

You were not alone, I was there man. Back up at 6 to get the offspring ready for school. Gonna pour coffee in my eyes, see if that's more effective. Seems reasonable. Maybe I'll just have a beer before this inspection...or better yet a zima.

I see a few association plays I like tonight. Hey it can't be worse, ammiright?

Tonight you make the picks and I'll tail you. I've been ice cold four days in a row.

 

[John Bender]

All good Shakey. I'm just gonna do my usual analysis. I have about 5 different qualifiers to make a play but they are tough to find this late in the game.

Vasselin should have won.

I'm done under rating Ferrer. He's too resilient. Doesn't lose to ####ty competition. He's in the Del Potro, Berdych, 2nd tier. Maybe by seasons end he will fade, but the old man is looking fresh.

Yeah, like I said. If Jerzy loses first set expect a 3 setter. He is the biggest headcase in tennis but probably has the most talent of any up and Comer out there.

Researching now, I'll see what I find. Bad days happen.

 

[shake zula]

All good Shakey. I'm just gonna do my usual analysis. I have about 5 different qualifiers to make a play but they are tough to find this late in the game.

Vasselin should have won.

I'm done under rating Ferrer. He's too resilient. Doesn't lose to ####ty competition. He's in the Del Potro, Berdych, 2nd tier. Maybe by seasons end he will fade, but the old man is looking fresh.

Yeah, like I said. If Jerzy loses first set expect a 3 setter. He is the biggest headcase in tennis but probably has the most talent of any up and Comer out there.

Researching now, I'll see what I find. Bad days happen.

Thanks brother. Frustrating b/c I spent time researching the plays and they looked good. One thing is to lose, which I hate but understand, another thing is collapses like Vasselin and Jerzey. But you were right and it was a good learning experience. I thought Jerzey had broken threw that mental frailty but he hasn't.

I completely agree with Ferrer. Worst part was that I was initially going to bet him but my trap alarm went nuts. Usually Ferrer would be -300ish vs. someone like Chardy. Seemed like books wanted ppl to take him. Who knows.

I'm done fading Nishikori too. The one guy I will still fade, if I get the chance is Anderson. That guy is crap.

 

[John Bender]

Milos Raonic -160 vs. Grigor Dmitrov: as solid a play as I could possibly find today. Dmitrov get's housed on hardcourt majors. Milos is a beast on the hardcourt. No brainer 1 uniter here at a very reasonable number.

And a quarter unit on Donald Young +550 over Nishikori.

Make those official.

Young is another head case. Almost as bad as Jerzy - yet his ability is probably close to Jerzy when he's on (at least 2 years ago that's what the experts were telling us). A hail mary bet, but this kid CAN beat Nishikori and that line is way off. Young is playing well right now.

 

[got_nugs]

Huge dumpster fire.

Try watching that Anderson match at 3 am and trying to sleep after he blew serving out the set. I lost 4 hours of sleep and 4 years off my life

You were not alone, I was there man. Back up at 6 to get the offspring ready for school. Gonna pour coffee in my eyes, see if that's more effective. Seems reasonable. Maybe I'll just have a beer before this inspection...or better yet a zima.I see a few association plays I like tonight. Hey it can't be worse, ammiright?

Tonight you make the picks and I'll tail you. I've been ice cold four days in a row.

I'm not doing any better. ####### Houston. I blame Jesus.

 

[shake zula]

Milos Raonic -160 vs. Grigor Dmitrov: as solid a play as I could possibly find today. Dmitrov get's housed on hardcourt majors. Milos is a beast on the hardcourt. No brainer 1 uniter here at a very reasonable number.

And a quarter unit on Donald Young +550 over Nishikori.

Make those official.

Young is another head case. Almost as bad as Jerzy - yet his ability is probably close to Jerzy when he's on (at least 2 years ago that's what the experts were telling us). A hail mary bet, but this kid CAN beat Nishikori and that line is way off. Young is playing well right now.

In.

What do you think about Tsonga vs. Simon?

 

[ChainsawU]

John Fox HC playoff record 1st 6 games (2003-2005):
SU: 5-1-0 (10.67, 83.3%)
ATS: 6-0-0 (14.25, 100.0%) avg line: 3.6

John Fox HC playoff record L6 games (2005-2013):
SU: 2-4-0 (-10.83, 33.3%)
ATS: 1-5-0 (-11.00, 16.7%) avg line: -0.2

His teams average 23.2 ppg in the playoffs, and his opponents also average 23.2 ppg in the playoffs. His games are 8-4 to the over. His Denver teams average 24.5 ppg in the playoffs. Opponents average 30.8 ppg against him in the playoffs w/ Denver (3-1 to the over). Two of the four playoff games he coached w/ the Broncos have gone into overtime, in alternating games starting with the first. So the pattern says this one goes to OT. Overall, 3 of the 12 games he coached in the playoffs have gone into OT.



eta link

 

[swirvenirvin]

I think I'm ready to call it quits on tailing tennis, but I'm sure as soon as I do you guys will have a monster day

quit two days ago and it looks like i avoided another loss, so you are good. Just let it go!

 

[swirvenirvin]

Anderson broke back with ease as Frenchy was serving out the set. ####### ridiculous. Pissed right now.

Up 2 sets to love. Lose the 4th set in a tiebreaker, try to serve out the match and get broken. This wasn't even my play and I sound like stuckey

I think we have a few contestants for crappiest beat last night/this morning. I think my vote still goes to that f'n rockets-thunder game. Houston having 72 or 73 points in the first half and 20 in the second half is just b.s.

damn we lost that over, I went to bed thinking it was easy over.. oh thats right cause i made them on my local site....

 

[John Bender]

You should all be tailing on Milos tonight just for sheer shtick factor.

We get to post ANOTHER GAME FOR MILOSH every time he takes a game in here...

c'mon sallies.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

My boss' boss was fired today, she was pretty high up in gubment. Jellycock?

 

[ChainsawU]

Overall, 3 of the 12 games he coached in the playoffs have gone into OT.

The last time he played the Pats it also went into OT. In that game there were 11 fumbles, six lost - 3 for each team.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

My boss' boss was fired today, she was pretty high up in gubment. Jellycock?

See if she needs some "consoling"

 

[ChainsawU]

Peyton Manning set the single-season passing record with 5,477 yards with 342 average passing ypg. New England held him to 150 yards passing in their game: 90 yards in the 1H and 60 yards in 2H + overtime (Pats outscored him 34-7 in 2H + overtime). Peyton's yardage total in that game was over 100 yards less than his next-lowest total of the season (266 @ Oakland in the finale that set the record). But in his defense, Peyton didn't have Julius Thomas that game.

 

[ChainsawU]

Peyton Manning W/L versus the NFL (from the splits on PFR):

Opponent	        W	L	%Indianapolis Colts	0	1	0%Chicago Bears	        1	2	33%Green Bay Packers	1	2	33%New England Patriots	6	12	33%Miami Dolphins	        5	7	42%Carolina Panthers	2	2	50%San Francisco 49ers	2	2	50%Seattle Seahawks	2	2	50%Atlanta Falcons	        3	2	60%Dallas Cowboys	        3	2	60%New Orleans Saints	3	2	60%Buffalo Bills	        7	4	64%New York Jets	        7	4	64%San Diego Chargers	7	4	64%St. Louis (LA/Cle) Rams	2	1	67%Ten Titans/Hou Oilers	14	5	74%Denver Broncos	        6	2	75%Jacksonville Jaguars	15	5	75%Pittsburgh Steelers	3	1	75%Oakland (LA) Raiders	7	2	78%Baltimore Ravens	8	2	80%New York Giants	        4	1	80%Philadelphia Eagles	4	1	80%Washington Redskins	4	1	80%Houston Texans	       17	3	85%Kansas City Chiefs	9	1	90%Ari (StL/Chi) Cardinals	2	0	100%Cincinnati Bengals	8	0	100%Cleveland Browns	6	0	100%Detroit Lions	        3	0	100%Minnesota Vikings	3	0	100%Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3	0	100%

 

[ChainsawU]

Peyton versus Belichick:

SU: 6-11-0 (-4.29, 35.3%) ATS: 6-11-0 (-5.94, 35.3%) avg line: -1.6 link

        Passing Yards    TD  INTTotal	         4827    35   23Average	        283.9	2.1  1.4

 

[modogg]

You should all be tailing on Milos tonight just for sheer shtick factor.

We get to post ANOTHER GAME FOR MILOSH every time he takes a game in here...

c'mon sallies.

I've sworn off gambling twice this week and somehow I keep finding myself stumbling in to a play. This cat is -135 on RB which seems shady but I'll give it a go. Only bet for tonight!

 

[Doctor Detroit]

49ers +550 to win NFC

.5u

This plus 49ers/Seahawks OVER 39.5 for 1u

Still thinking on early game.

ETA: Seriously, I have absolutely no feel for the Broncos/Pats. I said Pats would be in Super Bowl, and I think the Broncos are full of holes on D, but I still can't bet the Pats for some reason.

 

[John Bender]

My link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUaMzsNKR7Q

 

[lumpy19]

49ers +550 to win NFC

.5u

This plus 49ers/Seahawks OVER 39.5 for 1u

Still thinking on early game.

ETA: Seriously, I have absolutely no feel for the Broncos/Pats. I said Pats would be in Super Bowl, and I think the Broncos are full of holes on D, but I still can't bet the Pats for some reason.

Because the pats are going to lose

 

[John Bender]

I put a chunk down on Broncos ML. Going to quit gambling if they lose. I swear this time.

 

[shake zula]

I put a chunk down on Broncos ML. Going to quit gambling if they lose. I swear this time.

I'm in too.

 

[Man In The Box]

Supposed to be 60 degrees and clear in Denver on Sunday for what it's worth.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I put a chunk down on Broncos ML. Going to quit gambling if they lose. I swear this time.

We'll miss you good buddy

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

dammit. now I have to bet on the Patriots.

If I lose, at least Bender sticks around.

If I win, free money.

 

[John Bender]

dammit. now I have to bet on the Patriots.

If I lose, at least Bender sticks around.

If I win, free money.

I call that an emotional hedge. Let's get it.

 

[PatsFanCT]

Patriots +4

I'm getting points, and I have the better team? Sweet!

 

[pizzatyme]

Clippers -5 +105 1u Knicks playing 2nd half of back-to-back and Clippers figure to want to split as they have to go to Indiana the following night.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Keeping it simple, teasing the 2 dogs up.

 

[John Bender]

Tracking a possible NBA play. I play about 10 a year. Last year was 7-2 in thread, this year 1-0. Be ready, if I post it, load up.

 

[LOCO]

UWGB -1

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Tracking a possible NBA play. I play about 10 a year. Last year was 7-2 in thread, this year 1-0. Be ready, if I post it, load up.

YOU ### #### RIGHT I WILL!!!!!

Spoiler

YOU DON'T TELL ME WHAT TO DO

 

[ChainsawU]

Keeping it simple, teasing the 2 dogs up.

10-point SF teaser is 4-6-0 L10 games in Seattle.

 

[John Bender]

Tracking a possible NBA play. I play about 10 a year. Last year was 7-2 in thread, this year 1-0. Be ready, if I post it, load up.

YOU ### #### RIGHT I WILL!!!!!

Spoiler

YOU DON'T TELL ME WHAT TO DO

gbgbdd

 

[optionmaven]

Keeping it simple, teasing the 2 dogs up.

10-point SF teaser is 4-6-0 L10 games in Seattle.

This is there year though, after the last 2 debacles up there. Team is hungry having tasted superbowl defeat last yr. Team was coming on strong down the stretch and getting healthy. And what I'm calling the Boldin factor. Strange that John knew his team was in for a letdown(most teams do after winning it all) and getting old, and traded his stud wr to his brother in hopes he would win it all and be the first brothers to win superbowl rings as coaches. Sorry for the run on sentence. Thats my conspiracy theory and i'm sticking to it.

 

[The Man With No Name]

Keeping it simple, teasing the 2 dogs up.

10-point SF teaser is 4-6-0 L10 games in Seattle.

Strange that John knew his team was in for a letdown(most teams do after winning it all) and getting old, and traded his stud wr to his brother in hopes he would win it all and be the first brothers to win superbowl rings as coaches.

Coaches coach.

General Managers draft, sign and trade players (Ozzie Newsome)

 

[swirvenirvin]

Let's see if we can jizz in our pants this weekend. These game look a lot harder to cap the player props.

Found 2 early with the minimal lines that are posted.

*1 LaGarette Blount under 78.5 rushing

*1 Welker under 6 receptions (E).

 

[ChainsawU]

Thunder average 114.4 points per game against the Warriors since 2011 (7-2-0 to the over). They are coming off 4 consecutive unders - they average 104.0 points per game and are 12-8-1 (.600) to the over in that situation since they established in 2008. They are 4-1 to the over and average 110.4 ppg on 0 days of rest this season.

Two things that suck are that the Warriors are 2-7-0 (.222) to the over on the first game of a road trip this season, with one of those overs needing overtime. And the Thunder are 9-16-0 (.360) to the over after playing the Rockets (0-4-0 L4) - but they averaged 103.3 points per game in those 25 games.

SBR consensus #s say 56% are on Warriors to win, despite only 18.3% of ESPN saying the same thing. Conflicted on the public fade, so just going with an action junkie play from the trends.

Thunder Over 103 110/100

 

[got_nugs]

Thunder average 114.4 points per game against the Warriors since 2011 (7-2-0 to the over). They are coming off 4 consecutive unders - they average 104.0 points per game and are 12-8-1 (.600) to the over in that situation since they established in 2008. They are 4-1 to the over and average 110.4 ppg on 0 days of rest this season.

Two things that suck are that the Warriors are 2-7-0 (.222) to the over on the first game of a road trip this season, with one of those overs needing overtime. And the Thunder are 9-16-0 (.360) to the over after playing the Rockets (0-4-0 L4) - but they averaged 103.3 points per game in those 25 games.

SBR consensus #s say 56% are on Warriors to win, despite only 18.3% of ESPN saying the same thing. Conflicted on the public fade, so just going with an action junkie play from the trends.

Thunder Over 103 110/100

I was looking at this game over, too.

So far i'm on

Philly under 50.5 1h

Chicago +4.5

Toronto ML

Celtics -7.5 and Boston/Lakers over 205

Clips -4 and over 202.5

Portland +5/Denver ML parlay

Golden State/Thunder over 205.5

liked the Suns too but I haven't paid attention to them since Bledsoe has been out.

I didn't post these b/c I feel like i'm ON TILT after getting Houston'd. Tail at your own risk.

 

[John Bender]

^ don't forget Milos; don't be that guy nugs

 

[ChainsawU]

Thanks Nugs. I am in action junkie mode - just bought League Pass two nights ago, so I haven't seen anything yet. Now that I think about it, and I told Kool Moe D about this a few weeks ago is that I'm going to do a 2H system and only take 2H lines that give me a better position than what the lines closed at before tip off. I am 1-1-0 in those plays so far, with the 2 Dallas plays Wednesday night at the Clippers. They were pretty dope plays - the 3Q wager hit so I was free-ballin' a +500 ticket for them to win the game SU. They ultimately lost by 2 but it was worth the sweat.

 

[got_nugs]

^ don't forget Milos; don't be that guy nugs

Milos was the very 1st play I made today gb. I'll ride this mother####ing tennis train directly into the dirt.