SUNDAY 3 P.M. ET: NEW ENGLAND AT DENVER
We’ve generally seen a lot of sharp interest in New England and the Over. Oddsmakers put the number up at Denver -7. Sharps hit the Patriots hard at that price, as well as +6.5 and +6. Money continued coming in early in the week until reports of quarterback Tom Brady’s illness. He missed a practice a few days ago. That inspired a buy back in some circles, or a “buy” signal for Denver money that had been waiting for the low point before coming in. We’re now seeing Denver -5.5 in most stores as we go to press. That represents a midpoint of sharp sentiment pending public action.
Some sharp syndicates are on New England +6 or better
Some sharp syndicates are on Denver -5 or better
If the public moves the line into either of those strike zones, those syndicates will increase their positions. Sources tell us that New England money may come in more aggressively if it’s confirmed that Brady will be at full health.
The Over/Under opened at 54.5, and was bet up to 56 or even 56.5 when it was confirmed that weather wasn’t going to be an issue. The current forecast has little wind, or threat of precipitation. That means both Tom Brady and Peyton Manning will be in position to play at a very high level. Quants made the game 56 in good conditions. We’re hearing that Under interest would start at 57 because some sharps believe New England will try the “clock running” approach that San Diego used to win or stay close on this field.
SUNDAY 6:30 P.M.: SAN FRANCISCO AT SEATTLE
Three is such an important number in a projected defensive struggle that sportsbooks are getting buried in sharp action whatever they do. Seattle -3 is a popular sharp bet. Percentages dictate that San Francisco +3.5 should be just as huge. That’s the nature of the three! Seattle is in great to win by more than 2.5, with a game landing exactly on three not coasting backers money. San Francisco is in similarly great shape to lose by less than 3.5, with the exact three cashing their tickets. Sportsbooks are desperately hoping this game lands on any other number. Handle will be enormous, meaning a vigorish windfall as long as they can dodge the three.
Whatever the public does between now and kickoff, sharps will follow the same principals. Should the line come down, more money goes in on Seattle. Should the line go up, more money comes in on San Francisco.
The total has been bet down heavily from an opener of 41. We’re now seeing 39 in many stores, with some outliers testing 38.5. Weather isn’t expected to be much of an issue, so that’s strictly because this game is grading out as a defensive struggle. The teams played low scoring games earlier this season head-to-head, and have only played Under so far in the playoffs. Quants made the game 38, and hit Under 41 and Under 40 hard. Sources tell us Over money from sharps wouldn’t come in until 37. The public bets Overs though, and would probably bet enough before kickoff to keep this total no lower than 38.
