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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (4 Viewers)

Maybe the thing to look at after getting felted to a river 2 outer 2 weeks in a row is why I'm getting that pot committed in those positions with relatively deep stacks.

I'm tight / very aggressive (and that was my table image too which makes this guy calling me on the turn even more frustrating ). If I'm in a hand to the turn I've usually got at least 15 percent of my stack in.

I need to figure out how or why I end up so pot committed into hands. Probably need to study betting strategy only for a few weeks. :shrug:

 
John Bender said:
Maybe the thing to look at after getting felted to a river 2 outer 2 weeks in a row is why I'm getting that pot committed in those positions with relatively deep stacks.

I'm tight / very aggressive (and that was my table image too which makes this guy calling me on the turn even more frustrating ). If I'm in a hand to the turn I've usually got at least 15 percent of my stack in.

I need to figure out how or why I end up so pot committed into hands. Probably need to study betting strategy only for a few weeks. :shrug:
Click to expand...
:shrug:

So lets say you cut your bets in half on almost every street in this hand and he flats the river for $170 with Q-Q. Now you are asking yourself how in the world did you only win $350 on that hand.

 
should get the early games in have wedding tonight so prob nothing after 4

Carroll under 3k's -105 Push

J. Upton over 2 -115 Winner

A. Hill over H. Pence -105 Winner

Span over Rollins -115 Push

Hutchison under 5k's (E)Loser

Braun under 2.5 -140 Loser

Miley under k's 6 -140 Winner

Porcello under 4 k's -130Winner

Utley under 2.5 -150Winner

 
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ChainsawU said:
Eminence said:
Chainsaw, your avatar is gold. :)
Click to expand...
I don’t know about you, man. Do you know what a mush is? A lesson for you today - you can’t be coming in here and mushing plays. Doing it with an attitude is even worse. It’s gross bro. I read the crap you wrote about handcuffing your WR4 with Carolina’s WR2 this season. The fact that you are a decent writer makes you incredibly dangerous to someone who doesn’t know any better. And the fact that you were serious about handcuffing a WR is even more baffling. Honestly, you should call it “Fantasy Football for Tweens.” If this is how it's going to be, then this isn’t the place for you dude. This is a grown man’s thread unlike the ones you are used to. You’ll be lucky the day someone respects your opinion, but at this rate it is dumbfounding the way you continue to trash your own reputation. And you especially haven't earned the right to call anyone princess.
Click to expand...
On my recent plays:

I'm sorry man, I'm just having a little fun. I turned $50 into $300 and was gunning to make it $1,000 with two smart plays. There were two outcomes for me:

1.) Make $1,000

2.) Go back to $0.00

Anything but those two outcomes would have been a waste of time for me. The Cubs have the worst record in Major League Baseball, when looking for a team to hedge money against they're a great team to pick on. In fact, I made a bit of money betting against them during the Reds series. As far as last night against the Braves, there was logic behind that. The Cubs and the Braves are 2 of the lowest run scoring teams in the entire league, so that UNDER 7 line while not perfect was certainly pallettable.

I hedged my future on:

1.) The Cubs losing.

2.) The Cubs and Braves continuing to be a low run scoring team.

On Carolina WR:

Round 10 and beyond is all about upside in Fantasy Football. There are 259 targets to go around to Wide Receivers in Carolina and none of the receivers are being drafted until Round 10 and that's the Rookie they just drafted. If you don't want a guy with the potential to score 10+ Receiving Touchdowns on your bench behind your starter, that's silly. I assume you're the same guy who didn't draft Lacey or Bell last season.

Seriously man, wrap your head around the idea of 259 targets and knowing that with a late 10th Rounder and probably a waiver move, you'll have your hands on the entire Carolina Offense. If nothing materializes, drop them like you'd drop any other late round flyer you'd take in the 10th Round.

On Gambling in General:

Let me set the record straight on gambling. I gamble for fun. If I gambled with the intent to make money, I'd be a naive fool. I spend $50 - 100 a paycheck and gamble it on sportsbetting. Over the past 5 months, I've:

Turned: $50 into $600

Turned: $50 into $550

Turned: $550 in $300

...and each time I've squandered it trying to reach a thousand. My ideology in my system is:

1.) Don't stop until you reach $1,000.

2.) Find streaks and run with them.

If I start with $50 and I catch the Cubs on a 4 game losing streak, that's going to net me (approximately):

$50

$100

$200

$400

So understand that when I'm at $300, I've got a big grin on my face and eager to post in this gambling thread knowing that I'm two-calls away from reaching my goal of $1,000. Don't take my swagger in a bad way, know that I'm just having a blast with it all. I'm gonna turn $50 into $1,000 at some point this year and it's going to pay for all the times I've lost $50. :P

Point being, if there is a trend based hobby. Then I should be able to catch a short-term trend (simply by luck) and cash in on a team's short-term success to make a quick buck. If I don't, I only have to wait until next payday to give it a while again.

On calling Raider Nation a princess:

That was all in good fun, he is the original guy to give me crap on these boards. Before any of you even knew who Eminence was there was Raider Nation paving the way by giving me a hard time. With special consideration of who I believe his alias, it's a little extra fun to poke fun at him. ;)

Just friendly ribbing, of course. Sorry for distracting your thread old sport! All in the name of fun, this is a big gamble and we can all hope we find some kind of system that actually works. But until everyone else starts coming in with full proof bets, give me a slap in the wrist as I'm just trying to have some fun and almost won my 1st stack.

 
ChainsawU said:
Eminence said:
Chainsaw, your avatar is gold. :)
Click to expand...
I don’t know about you, man. Do you know what a mush is? A lesson for you today - you can’t be coming in here and mushing plays. Doing it with an attitude is even worse. It’s gross bro. I read the crap you wrote about handcuffing your WR4 with Carolina’s WR2 this season. The fact that you are a decent writer makes you incredibly dangerous to someone who doesn’t know any better. And the fact that you were serious about handcuffing a WR is even more baffling. Honestly, you should call it “Fantasy Football for Tweens.” If this is how it's going to be, then this isn’t the place for you dude. This is a grown man’s thread unlike the ones you are used to. You’ll be lucky the day someone respects your opinion, but at this rate it is dumbfounding the way you continue to trash your own reputation. And you especially haven't earned the right to call anyone princess.
Click to expand...
lol

 
There is a lot of juice on the o8.5 today in the Cubs game. The home plate umpire is calling his first game at Wrigley today. Since 2004 when the ump is doing his first game at Wrigley the under has hit 60-38-5 (.612) against an average total of 8.8. When you filter out the results to day games only (4:05 PM EST and earlier) the under hit at a rate of 39-29-5 (.574) against an average total of 8.8. I went back and added up all the total runs in the day games and got an average of 8.8 ±4.5 runs per game. That is nuts with the 8.8 working out like that.

This is an experiment so I understand if it seems arbitrary. I used the SDQL code to get "a pitcher's first outing at a particular venue" and (I think) I did the same thing with home plate umpires. I had to ask the dude who made the database how to query the "pitcher's first outing at a particular venue" since I wanted it for Coors Field - and it isn't in the manual. Anyway, I tested the four results I got for 2014. They were true and made the trend work - so I'm going with it, even though that seems like a lot of first-time umps even for a ten-year span.

I'm thinking that since it's Wrigley the ump's strike zone expands due to the reputation of the ballpark. What really made it stand out is that with these first-time umpires all of their games usually go about 70% to the over when they first get to the majors. So it was the opposite of what you would expect at Wrigley Field. Anyway, playing with fire and all of that crap but I thought 5d could have easily moved to 9 instead of the 8.5 currently juiced to -126 on reduced juice, so it seems fishy, public love overs, etc..

Braves/Cubs u8½ +116

 
ChainsawU said:
There is a lot of juice on the o8.5 today in the Cubs game. The home plate umpire is calling his first game at Wrigley today. Since 2004 when the ump is doing his first game at Wrigley the under has hit 60-38-5 (.612) against an average total of 8.8. When you filter out the results to day games only (4:05 PM EST and earlier) the under hit at a rate of 39-29-5 (.574) against an average total of 8.8. I went back and added up all the total runs in the day games and got an average of 8.8 ±4.5 runs per game. That is nuts with the 8.8 working out like that.

This is an experiment so I understand if it seems arbitrary. I used the SDQL code to get "a pitcher's first outing at a particular venue" and (I think) I did the same thing with home plate umpires. I had to ask the dude who made the database how to query the "pitcher's first outing at a particular venue" since I wanted it for Coors Field - and it isn't in the manual. Anyway, I tested the four results I got for 2014. They were true and made the trend work - so I'm going with it, even though that seems like a lot of first-time umps even for a ten-year span.

I'm thinking that since it's Wrigley the ump's strike zone expands due to the reputation of the ballpark. What really made it stand out is that with these first-time umpires all of their games usually go about 70% to the over when they first get to the majors. So it was the opposite of what you would expect at Wrigley Field. Anyway, playing with fire and all of that crap but I thought 5d could have easily moved to 9 instead of the 8.5 currently juiced to -126 on reduced juice, so it seems fishy, public love overs, etc..

Braves/Cubs u8½ +116
Click to expand...
I got Braves/Cubs UNDER 9 for -120. I've also got money on Cubs +1.5 runs for -140. Neither team traditionally scores a boatload of points and the Cubs are hot and at home, so I'll take a 2 run handicap. I've also got $$$ on the Reds ML -110.

 
Good to know. I also found that since last season, Cubs at home during the day after playing their previous game at home is 36-23-2 (.610) to the under against an average total of 8.0 and 14-7-1 (.666) to the under when it's the second game of the series. I also went with TB -121 tailing another guy's system play. The same system likes Pirates tonight, fwiw.

 
A lot of abritrary stuff today. Did you guys see Chavez's game versus the Tigers. I was on the A's that game. I noticed he was a pretty big fave in Oakland in his start versus Seattle and is now lined at plus money tonight. I found a trend on opposing starters making their first start at SafeCo after being lined as the home fave (less than -105) in their previous start versus the Mariners, now lined as the dog (greater than -105) versus the Mariners. Seattle was 15-5 SU in those games since 2009. They scored 1 ±1 runs in the losses and 4.8 ±2.1 in the wins.

A's starters specifically are 0-6 SU lined as dogs of +110 or less making their first start at an opposing ballpark after being lined as the favorite against them at home. That also goes back to 2009 included Chavez's last start versus the Tigers. I know the Mariners aren't the Tigers but I think I like them. It just seemed weird to see the A's +102.

 
Eminence said:
ChainsawU said:
Eminence said:
Chainsaw, your avatar is gold. :)
Click to expand...
I dont know about you, man. Do you know what a mush is? A lesson for you today - you cant be coming in here and mushing plays. Doing it with an attitude is even worse. Its gross bro. I read the crap you wrote about handcuffing your WR4 with Carolinas WR2 this season. The fact that you are a decent writer makes you incredibly dangerous to someone who doesnt know any better. And the fact that you were serious about handcuffing a WR is even more baffling. Honestly, you should call it Fantasy Football for Tweens. If this is how it's going to be, then this isnt the place for you dude. This is a grown mans thread unlike the ones you are used to. Youll be lucky the day someone respects your opinion, but at this rate it is dumbfounding the way you continue to trash your own reputation. And you especially haven't earned the right to call anyone princess.
Click to expand...
On my recent plays:

I'm sorry man, I'm just having a little fun. I turned $50 into $300 and was gunning to make it $1,000 with two smart plays. There were two outcomes for me:

1.) Make $1,000

2.) Go back to $0.00

Anything but those two outcomes would have been a waste of time for me. The Cubs have the worst record in Major League Baseball, when looking for a team to hedge money against they're a great team to pick on. In fact, I made a bit of money betting against them during the Reds series. As far as last night against the Braves, there was logic behind that. The Cubs and the Braves are 2 of the lowest run scoring teams in the entire league, so that UNDER 7 line while not perfect was certainly pallettable.

I hedged my future on:

1.) The Cubs losing.

2.) The Cubs and Braves continuing to be a low run scoring team.

On Carolina WR:

Round 10 and beyond is all about upside in Fantasy Football. There are 259 targets to go around to Wide Receivers in Carolina and none of the receivers are being drafted until Round 10 and that's the Rookie they just drafted. If you don't want a guy with the potential to score 10+ Receiving Touchdowns on your bench behind your starter, that's silly. I assume you're the same guy who didn't draft Lacey or Bell last season.

Seriously man, wrap your head around the idea of 259 targets and knowing that with a late 10th Rounder and probably a waiver move, you'll have your hands on the entire Carolina Offense. If nothing materializes, drop them like you'd drop any other late round flyer you'd take in the 10th Round.

On Gambling in General:

Let me set the record straight on gambling. I gamble for fun. If I gambled with the intent to make money, I'd be a naive fool. I spend $50 - 100 a paycheck and gamble it on sportsbetting. Over the past 5 months, I've:

Turned: $50 into $600

Turned: $50 into $550

Turned: $550 in $300

...and each time I've squandered it trying to reach a thousand. My ideology in my system is:

1.) Don't stop until you reach $1,000.

2.) Find streaks and run with them.

If I start with $50 and I catch the Cubs on a 4 game losing streak, that's going to net me (approximately):

$50

$100

$200

$400

So understand that when I'm at $300, I've got a big grin on my face and eager to post in this gambling thread knowing that I'm two-calls away from reaching my goal of $1,000. Don't take my swagger in a bad way, know that I'm just having a blast with it all. I'm gonna turn $50 into $1,000 at some point this year and it's going to pay for all the times I've lost $50. :P

Point being, if there is a trend based hobby. Then I should be able to catch a short-term trend (simply by luck) and cash in on a team's short-term success to make a quick buck. If I don't, I only have to wait until next payday to give it a while again.

On calling Raider Nation a princess:

That was all in good fun, he is the original guy to give me crap on these boards. Before any of you even knew who Eminence was there was Raider Nation paving the way by giving me a hard time. With special consideration of who I believe his alias, it's a little extra fun to poke fun at him. ;)

Just friendly ribbing, of course. Sorry for distracting your thread old sport! All in the name of fun, this is a big gamble and we can all hope we find some kind of system that actually works. But until everyone else starts coming in with full proof bets, give me a slap in the wrist as I'm just trying to have some fun and almost won my 1st stack.
Click to expand...
The casino industry thanks you.

 
Eminence said:
On Gambling in General:

Let me set the record straight on gambling. I gamble for fun. If I gambled with the intent to make money, I'd be a naive fool. I spend $50 - 100 a paycheck and gamble it on sportsbetting. Over the past 5 months, I've:

Turned: $50 into $600

Turned: $50 into $550

Turned: $550 in $300

...and each time I've squandered it trying to reach a thousand. My ideology in my system is:

1.) Don't stop until you reach $1,000.

2.) Find streaks and run with them.

If I start with $50 and I catch the Cubs on a 4 game losing streak, that's going to net me (approximately):

$50

$100

$200

$400

So understand that when I'm at $300, I've got a big grin on my face and eager to post in this gambling thread knowing that I'm two-calls away from reaching my goal of $1,000. Don't take my swagger in a bad way, know that I'm just having a blast with it all. I'm gonna turn $50 into $1,000 at some point this year and it's going to pay for all the times I've lost $50. :P

Point being, if there is a trend based hobby. Then I should be able to catch a short-term trend (simply by luck) and cash in on a team's short-term success to make a quick buck. If I don't, I only have to wait until next payday to give it a while again.
Click to expand...
When you want some winners, you give your boy Steve Stevens a call.

I'm a Sports Consultant, and a bookie killer - all my clients do is win, baby!

Give me your number on my site, and the first pick is on the house!

 
ChainsawU said:
A lot of abritrary stuff today. Did you guys see Chavez's game versus the Tigers. I was on the A's that game. I noticed he was a pretty big fave in Oakland in his start versus Seattle and is now lined at plus money tonight. I found a trend on opposing starters making their first start at SafeCo after being lined as the home fave (less than -105) in their previous start versus the Mariners, now lined as the dog (greater than -105) versus the Mariners. Seattle was 15-5 SU in those games since 2009. They scored 1 ±1 runs in the losses and 4.8 ±2.1 in the wins.

A's starters specifically are 0-6 SU lined as dogs of +110 or less making their first start at an opposing ballpark after being lined as the favorite against them at home. That also goes back to 2009 included Chavez's last start versus the Tigers. I know the Mariners aren't the Tigers but I think I like them. It just seemed weird to see the A's +102.
Click to expand...
The A's are 13-5 SU in Chavez's starts, but only 4-5 SU in those games when they scored less than 5 runs.

Chavez is new to the A's this season as a starter. When the opposing team sees him for the first time, he has allowed 25 runs in 81.1 IP (2.77 ERA) and the A's are 11-2 SU in those games. However, the A's are only 2-3 SU when opposing teams are seeing Chavez for the second time. He allowed 18 runs in 27.2 IP (5.86 ERA) when teams got a second look at him, including the game where he allowed 4 runs to the Mariners in 5.2 IP. This will be the third time the Mariners have seen him and his first start at SafeCo Field. No other team has seen him more than twice.

Mariners -112

 
*Just a disclaimer to those stats above: they are exclusive to Chavez with the A's. He started two games for the Blue Jays back in 2012 against the Brewers and Marlins that I didn't include. I also didn't take into account any relief pitching before 2014, either - just starting gigs in 2014.

The umpire, Bob Davidson is an under guy. And a lot of trends back it up. Neither Iwakuma or Chavez have done work with him behind home plate, but it hasn't mattered. In 2014, guys doing work with Davidson behind home plate for the first time are 7-2 to the under at home and 5-0-1 to the under away. Or else I would have played M's over. And the full game over for that matter: Iwakuma is 6-0 to the over when he plays the A's. But that looks pretty random: link.

He is in pretty good form right now. I couldn't find anything to fade in the subsequent game after his last start, which was pretty good, produced some sick numbers. He has a decent ERA, K/BB ratio, WHIP, etc, versus the A's.

 
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The two bets I keep making for the upcoming NFL season are Bridgewater for OROY at +800 or better and The Saints to with the NFC South at +135

 
I have two really strong plays I'm looking at week one of NCAA.

Bowling Green -7.5

BC -13

Bowling Green brings back many starters and will likely win the MAC again this year. WKU is a mid card CUSA team that will be lucky to win 5 games. I'm thinking 17.5-21 is a better line for this game, not sure how this is a 7 point game.

U Mass stinks. BC is a legit Mid Level College football program. I'll lay less then 2 TD and feel just fine about it.

 
The Good The Bad and The Ugly was just on PBS for some weird reason. Had always been meaning to see it. What an awesome movie. Might have to try a few more spaghetti westerns

 
Cueto under 7 k's +110 Push

Kendrick under 4.5 k's -130 Loser

Harper over 2 -125 Push

Bucholtz over 4.5 k's -110 Winner

M. Cabrea over 2 -130 Loser

Butler over Hunter +120 Winner

Wood over 5 (E) Loser

 
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The O's are 13-1 L14 after being shut out (8-0 L8 at home after being shut out at home). The O's are 3-0 SU in Gausman's home starts when the opponent is seeing him for the first time. Gausman had a 1.96 ERA in those three games (18.1 innings combined) versus the Tigers and Red Sox last season, and the A's on June 7. Doug Eddings' has a huge strike zone which discourages betting the over, even though the O's L4 games have gone under the total since they got home last Wednesday and Whitley's last five starts have gone over. Eddings last two games behind home plate have gone over the total. Since 2012 Eddings is 8-5 to the under after two straight overs. And in 83 games since 2012, the over has never hit four times in a row in his games behind the plate. He is an under dude and I am hoping it helps Gausman. Plus this is a pretty significant getaway day. Cheers guys. Action junkie for the late game.

Orioles -1½ 40/60

Orioles -140 56/40

 
Buddy of mine who is pretty good at the WC is playing the following for the WC Final:

O2 FT -125 to win 2U

1U Germany win FT +120

1U Ger/Arg Draw FT +225

Correct Score FT Ger 2 Arg 1 0.5U +850

Correct Score FT Ger 2 Arg 2 0.5U +1700

Correct Score FT Ger 3 Arg 1 0.5U +1650

 
Anyone feeling any fantasy football sleepers yet? Based on looking at various rankings, it appears that I am higher on (by position) E.J. Manuel, Bishop Sankey, Cordarrell Patterson and Jordan Reed than most others are.

 
Raider Nation said:
Anyone feeling any fantasy football sleepers yet? Based on looking at various rankings, it appears that I am higher on (by position) E.J. Manuel, Bishop Sankey, Cordarrell Patterson and Jordan Reed than most others are.
Click to expand...
98% of my research has been on NCAA so far. Like I said last night I LOVE bowling green week 1. Like a 10 unit shoot for the moon play in week one for me.

 
Raider Nation said:
Anyone feeling any fantasy football sleepers yet? Based on looking at various rankings, it appears that I am higher on (by position) E.J. Manuel, Bishop Sankey, Cordarrell Patterson and Jordan Reed than most others are.
Click to expand...
Reed is tough he could be huge, but his ADP is climbing not worth the risk where he ADP is IMO. What did he have 4 concussions in half a season last year...

 
swirvenirvin said:
Raider Nation said:
Anyone feeling any fantasy football sleepers yet? Based on looking at various rankings, it appears that I am higher on (by position) E.J. Manuel, Bishop Sankey, Cordarrell Patterson and Jordan Reed than most others are.
Click to expand...
Reed is tough he could be huge, but his ADP is climbing not worth the risk where he ADP is IMO. What did he have 4 concussions in half a season last year...
Click to expand...
DeSean on one side... Garcon on the other, and a healthy RG3. Reed is gonna have nothing but green grass staring at him.

 
swirvenirvin said:
Raider Nation said:
Anyone feeling any fantasy football sleepers yet? Based on looking at various rankings, it appears that I am higher on (by position) E.J. Manuel, Bishop Sankey, Cordarrell Patterson and Jordan Reed than most others are.
Click to expand...
Reed is tough he could be huge, but his ADP is climbing not worth the risk where he ADP is IMO. What did he have 4 concussions in half a season last year...
Click to expand...
I fully subscribe to the SP thread re: Cutler. Depending on how late you can get him, I am all aboard that chop-choo train. So many points on the table in that offense, with him at the center of it.

 
Raider Nation said:
Anyone feeling any fantasy football sleepers yet? Based on looking at various rankings, it appears that I am higher on (by position) E.J. Manuel, Bishop Sankey, Cordarrell Patterson and Jordan Reed than most others are.
Click to expand...
Few at each position that I like based on where they were drafted in 4 of my drafts this year:

QB

Ryan, Romo, Cutler

RB

Stacy, Joique, Lamar Miller

WR

Torrey Smith, Emmanuel Sanders, Rueben Randle

TE

Olsen, Pitta, Rudolph

 
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