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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
ChainsawU
Footballguy
She fights tonight. She got beat by that Brazillian chick last time we backed her. Both of these fighters are coming in off losses. Just to get some background on Leslie Smith, I found her fight versus Barb Honchak for the Invicta FC Flyweight Championship back on 12/7 (213:00). It got FOTN. Smith lost the decision, and she also lost a subsequent decision versus Sarah Kaufman on 4/16 in which she was a fill-in on eight days' notice. Everything I am reading - and they even say it during the fight - is that Smith is a "fan favorite," crowd-pleasing, forward-moving fighter. Most of the girl fights end in decisions, but Duke's professional record is listed at 3-1, with one win each by KO/TKO, decision, and submission (armbar). Duke is 5'11" with a 72" reach. Smith is 5'9" with a 67" reach. Duke has that reach advantage, but since Smith is known for advancing maybe Duke can catch her in an armbar up close. Duke does train with the Rousey camp, after all. Duke also said that last fight she focused too much on her standup as a whole, rather than using it to accompany her already formidable base. “I focused on that so much for 12 weeks it was like I had tunnel vision," Duke said, "I was really hesitant. I just kept waiting forever for something to happen.” This is the chick Jessamyn submitted with the armbar back in 2012. I think Smith will be succeptable to Duke's jabs and maybe even a takedown or two.JessamynFormer model, now beating faces in
Regardless of what happens I just hope we get to see lots of body triangles and deputy sheriffs tonight.
5d currently offers Duke SU +120, Duke by decision +215, and Duke by submission +635.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
In Emenencesque retrospect should have known the Jeter gets a hit prop was a gimme.
Trying some golf:
Fowler over Jason Day +110, also sprinkling in some on Fowler Win/Top5/Top10.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Karlsson -110 vs. Duval and Howell
Furyk -125 vs. Watson and Clarke (favorite bet of the group)
Fowler -130 vs. Casey
Woodland +110 vs. Stadler and Lyle
Na +175 vs. Luiten and Senden
Furyk -125 vs. Watson and Clarke (favorite bet of the group)
Fowler -130 vs. Casey
Woodland +110 vs. Stadler and Lyle
Na +175 vs. Luiten and Senden
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Hi, I need a good guess on how many under par the winner of the Open will be...
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
LAST TIME it was played tiger was like 18 under. Apparently the course is tougher now..
So something less then 18 under
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Seriously? The only thing I found was some Bleacher Report writer who said -10.
Uh, thanks?
Weather supposed to be crappy, that's the only other thing I know.
got_nugs
Footballguy
ArbyMelt
Footballguy
Joe Fortenbaugh @JoeFortenbaugh 8h
Open prop changes at LVH: Winning score from 276.5 (-110) to 275.5 (-110). Lowest round from 65.0 (-110) to 65.0 (-130 under).
Open prop changes at LVH: Winning score from 276.5 (-110) to 275.5 (-110). Lowest round from 65.0 (-110) to 65.0 (-130 under).
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
got_nugs
Footballguy
got_nugs
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Adam Scott finishing position under 20.5 -135
optionmaven
Footballguy
My info was that it was playing easier than last time, but that was monday/tuesday. Conditions should/could get a bit treacherous with crappy weather. Sort of a crapshoot but I think 12 under would be a good number to look at, or thereabouts.
Pre tourney wagers to win on Mahan, Spieth, Stenson, and Rose. Will live bet or overnight bet some others depending on numbers. Tiger at +numbers in all his matchups, my how the mighty have fallen. I haven't backed him yet, but still might later tonight.
Do you track your baseball plays? I put together a spreadsheet and started to track your recent stuff, but I've been busy as hell
ChainsawU
Footballguy
I don't keep records like that. I knew someone would ask one day. I would become obsessed with it though and want to have fun, action junkie, let it hang loose, all that stuff. I know it's not responsible. I do keep most of the rough-drafts of writeups though. In one of my old spiral notebooks from school. It's fun to go back and look through sometimes. But the UFC notebook is on the computer since it needs to be searchable. The spiral notebook is getting fat from flipping through it a hundred times. It is literally going to be full since I use every page front and back wherever there's room. Like an insane man in jail.
I have a feeling my baseball record is really crappy. I feel like I can't do baseball as well. It feels like total action junkie in baseball at this point, for sure tests my discipline with chasing, but I feel like by watching all the games and staying on top of things I'm content with 1u. I want to survive. The whole ASG made me realize that without SDQL I'm pretty helpless, though.
ChainsawU
Footballguy
The Edmonton Eskimos have won their first three games of 2014 (2-1 ATS) after going 4-14 SU and 8-10 ATS last season. Two of their SU and ATS wins last season (half their wins last season) came against tonight's opponent, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have also won their first three games of 2014 and are 3-0 ATS. These are two undefeated teams who are apparently totally different versions of themselves since last year.
What I like about tomorrow is the Eskimos as the short road dog. They opened as 3-point dogs and got bet down to 2.5. In the CFL since last season, road dogs of 3 or less are 9-3 SU and ATS (6-0 L6) against an average line of 2.2. Those were all regular season games, too.
Winnipeg leads the league with 115 points scored through three games, however they have allowed 27 ppg which ranks 5th out of 9 teams. The average points allowed in the CFL so far this season is about 25 ppg, so the Winnipeg Blue Bombers are on the high side of that number in points allowed with their defense.
Edmonton's defense might be pretty good though. They have 13 sacks thanks to defensive tackle Almondo Sewell who leads the league with five, and defensive end Odell Willis who has three. The Eskimos also have a league-best eight interceptions. The Eskimos rank second in points allowed with 55 points allowed in three games (18.3 ppg). The only team who has allowed less than the Eskimos are the Calgary Stampeders, who have allowed 23 points through two games. Edmontons offensive line has also been strong. Their QB has thrown a league-leading seven touchdown passes and has only been sacked 7 times, which - from what I understand - is a good stat.
The "short road dog" trend I found says I can take the ML at plus-money and not worry about the points or vig. And in a sport I have never bet before, why lay juice if you don't have to? This game will also be on ESPN2 tomorrow night at 8:35PM EST, which is the whole reason for all this.
Eskimos 100/125
What I like about tomorrow is the Eskimos as the short road dog. They opened as 3-point dogs and got bet down to 2.5. In the CFL since last season, road dogs of 3 or less are 9-3 SU and ATS (6-0 L6) against an average line of 2.2. Those were all regular season games, too.
Winnipeg leads the league with 115 points scored through three games, however they have allowed 27 ppg which ranks 5th out of 9 teams. The average points allowed in the CFL so far this season is about 25 ppg, so the Winnipeg Blue Bombers are on the high side of that number in points allowed with their defense.
Edmonton's defense might be pretty good though. They have 13 sacks thanks to defensive tackle Almondo Sewell who leads the league with five, and defensive end Odell Willis who has three. The Eskimos also have a league-best eight interceptions. The Eskimos rank second in points allowed with 55 points allowed in three games (18.3 ppg). The only team who has allowed less than the Eskimos are the Calgary Stampeders, who have allowed 23 points through two games. Edmontons offensive line has also been strong. Their QB has thrown a league-leading seven touchdown passes and has only been sacked 7 times, which - from what I understand - is a good stat.
The "short road dog" trend I found says I can take the ML at plus-money and not worry about the points or vig. And in a sport I have never bet before, why lay juice if you don't have to? This game will also be on ESPN2 tomorrow night at 8:35PM EST, which is the whole reason for all this.
Eskimos 100/125
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Thought on some rust on the bats after 4 days off and some unders on Friday?
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
OR the couple days off allowed guys to get some rest, heal a nagging injury, and then come back on fire. ...
I tend to agree with you and think the timing on hitters on Friday night will be off, but I am guessing we will see low o/u numbers anyway as most teams are starting with the ace of the staff or their #2 at worst depending upon rest from the ASG etc.
Anyone look to see what unders have historically done the day returning from the ASB?
regularguy
Footballguy
I wound up playing this at over 82.5 (bring it home, MacPherson). I also played winning score over 273.5. I'm hoping the weather is indeed a factor after today. I also threw a few bucks on wire-to-wire winner at +3000 and American winner at +175. I thought about fading Tiger but decided to stand pat and root for him instead.regularguy said:
regularguy
Footballguy
Loving the CFL/AFL analysis, btw.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
I think SDQL is huge. As I mentioned before, I'm afraid to learn it b/c it seems like a black hole that I would get lost in.
FWIW, as a "follower" mainly on the boards; I appreciate the fact that you always let us know which ones are "action" plays and which ones are rooted in data
General Malaise
Footballguy
Curious what you guys think about this new gambling company based in the UK, which is a parimutuel based game of chance that allows bettors to wager on soccer games before and during the matches. It's not a skill based game, so I doubt it would appeal to many of you, but I'm interested to see how this does in Europe with the casual fans who want to add a little excitement to their match watching.
Contagious Sports.
Contagious Sports.
ChainsawU
Footballguy
My high-school buddy is an actor in San Antonio. Grew up with this dude. He asked me to help him with some comedy sketches we are going to record at his dude's recording studio for his voice reel. He's coming through tomorrow, staying at my place, and then Saturday night we are going out with his g/f and some chicks she knows.
ChainsawU
Footballguy
That's precise as hell, narrowing it down to which 5-minute increment of the game a goal will be scored. Genius to put it on mobile device. Lots of opportunities to chase bets and get a ton of money in play in a short amount of time.
The Ref
Footballguy
Bought a "New used" car two weeks ago. Hard Top C70 Volvo for the wife - she has always wanted one. Three nights ago she heard a loud noise followed by a red warning light about the power system. Turns out an engine bolt snapped off messed with all sorts of parts in the engine and now the car is junk. Dealer is "letting" us walk away from the car altogether but cant help us with the sales tax unless we buy another car from him. They dont have any more C70's in stock. Wife wants to walk away from from the $2K in tax and go to another dealer so she can have her car.
I'm pissed.
I'm pissed.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Thanks for taking a look at this. Yeah, it's interesting for sure. Seems like it's more of a lottery/luck than anything else. You pick 1,2,3 or 4 and then you are given 4 random 5-minute increments in which to make money if a goal is scored. Nobody scores and I think the money carry-overs or something. I still am not crystal clear on this, but my company is going to try and get a slug of this stock on the IPO and I'd love to hear more feedback from you esteemed wagering fellows.
regularguy
Footballguy
I can't imagine buying the same model car after having that happen, fluke or not.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Buy it new
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Haven't we all spent more than 2K for something that seemed like a bad idea to us just to keep the wife happyThe Ref said:
ETA: I feel your pain
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ChainsawU
Footballguy
Went back five years and nothing really sticks out. The under hit 76-72-2 (.514). I did find a couple things that might point to a play on Bumgarner though. Other than that I can't tell if these are random or not.Angry Beavers said:Anyone look to see what unders have historically done the day returning from the ASB?
Subsequent game after the ASG last five years:
Braves 5-0 SU L5 avg line -163.
Giants 4-1 SU (4-0 L4) avg line -148. Bumgarner pitched two of those: 13.0 IP, 2R
Reds 4-1 SU (4-0 L4) avg line -130 (all home games).
White Sox 5-0 to the over.
D-Backs and Mets both 0-5 SU.
Rangers 5-0 to the under.
Bumgarner 2-0 SU, Dickey 0-2 SU.
Home dogs 8-15 SU avg line 119: that is the Marlins and Twins tomorrow.
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Gracias!
ChainsawU
Footballguy
I tried to look at stuff for tomorrow's games. This is all I have so far:
Yankees 13-4 to the under since 2013 versus NL at home.
Yankees 19-12 to the under in game 1 of a series, 14-4 to the under L18 game 1 of a series (since May 17).
Nats 19-8 SU (15-3 SU home) since 2013 on >0 rest. They scored 5.6 ±2.1 in the 19 wins. They scored 5.7 ±2.2 in the 15 home wins.
Rangers 2-4 SU L6 (0-4 SU L4) Yu starts versus the Blue Jays (since 8/17/12). Dickey has never had the Rangers in any home ballpark.
Blue Jays 8-2 SU and 9-1 to the under versus the Rangers since 2013.
Blue Jays 19-11 SU (10-4 SU home) in game 1 of a series this season.
Rangers 32-48 SU (2-20 SU L22) versus the AL.
Yankees 13-4 to the under since 2013 versus NL at home.
Yankees 19-12 to the under in game 1 of a series, 14-4 to the under L18 game 1 of a series (since May 17).
Nats 19-8 SU (15-3 SU home) since 2013 on >0 rest. They scored 5.6 ±2.1 in the 19 wins. They scored 5.7 ±2.2 in the 15 home wins.
Rangers 2-4 SU L6 (0-4 SU L4) Yu starts versus the Blue Jays (since 8/17/12). Dickey has never had the Rangers in any home ballpark.
Blue Jays 8-2 SU and 9-1 to the under versus the Rangers since 2013.
Blue Jays 19-11 SU (10-4 SU home) in game 1 of a series this season.
Rangers 32-48 SU (2-20 SU L22) versus the AL.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Fading Rory tomorrow?
Think I'm going to
Spieth +.5 over Rory +103
Think I'm going to
Spieth +.5 over Rory +103
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