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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (5 Viewers)

Generally speaking, we won't do many college versions of our sharp reports during the regular season. The focus has always been on the NFL during the regular season because pro football is KING in Las Vegas and because sharp action often doesn't hit the board hard until right before kickoff in college action.

But, this week, because the NFL hasn't started yet, and because the lines for college openers have been up for weeks we decided to put together a report emphasizing the main TV games you'll be watching throughout the day and evening. Here's a look at a great eight TV matchups, presented as always in schedule rotation order

PENN STATE VS. CENTRAL FLORIDA (in Ireland, on ESPN2):

Sharps bet Central Florida fairly early in the process here, as an opener of pick-em is up to -2 in many places. Theres a lot of skepticism about Penn States talent depth as the consequences of their scandal continue to matter. If UCF wasnt replacing quarterback Blake Bortles with a non-battle tested replacement, support would have even been more aggressive. The Over/Under has been bet down from 48 to 45.5 because of concerns about field conditions in Ireland. Note that this is a very early start!

UCLA AT VIRGINIA (on ESPN):

Sharps are generally no fans of Virginia. But, they thought oddsmakers opened this game way too high. An opener of UCLA -23.5 has been bet down to -20.5 in the days leading up to kickoff. Note that this is a bad body clock game for the Bruins, who have travelled across the country for a very early start time. And, Virginia tends to play defensive struggles that eat a lot of the game clock. Thats brought the total down from 57 to 55.5.

RICE AT NOTRE DAME (on NBC):

We move to midafternoon for another game thats seen a favorite in that price range come down. Notre Dame opened at -24. The number is -21 as of late Friday Night because of suspensions to various Irish. You may recall theres an academic scandal slowly unfolding. NBC and the other networks want it to unfold as slowly as possible! Rice (+) is the sharp side at anything over three touchdowns. No interest yet on the Over/Under.

ALABAMA VS. WEST VIRGINIA (in Atlanta on ABC):

You may be noticing a theme that a lot of the main TV games have very high spreads! Thats the case again here. Not much interest from sharps with an opener of Alabama -26.5 being bet down to -25. Its telling that sharps didnt take positions on the favorites in any of these last three games, figuring the public wasnt going to be laying such tall numbers anyway. The total has dropped a tick from 55.5 to 55.

CLEMSON AT GEORGIA (on ESPN): This was a classic last year when both teams had quarterbacks looking to play in the NFL someday. Not as much sizzle this year with relatively unknown replacements. More dog support as an opener of Georgia -8.5 is now down to -7.5. Oddsmakers are concerned that the public would come in heavily at Georgia -7. And, sources tell us there is a sharp syndicate or two waiting to back the Bulldogs if they see that number. Big move on the Under from an opener of 58 down to 54.5.

FRESNO STATE at USC (on FOX): Back to a spread in the 20s, and back to support from the Wise Guys for a big ugly underdog. USC opened at -22 and is now down to -21. Off-the-field news this week regarding the Trojans sure didnt help. Not the way Steve Sarkisian wanted to begin his coaching era! No interest from Wise Guys yet on the total.

FLORIDA STATE vs. OKLAHOMA STATE (in Arlington on ABC): We finally have a big favorite being bet! Though, so of that is position-taking from sharps who wanted to play FSU at the key number opener of -17 before coming back over the top on the dog if the line soared much higher. It has floated to -19, which isnt exactly soaring. Still a lot of time before kickoff for that number to rise. Squares are looking for big name powers to betand the defending national champs might be appealing to them. Were hearing from sources that sharps would come in on OSU at +20. The total is up a point from 63 to 64 in this indoors game.

LSU vs. WISCONSIN (in Houston on ESPN): We wrap up the day in the Houston Texans home stadium with a pair of traditional powers who will be trying to win with new quarterbacks. LSU has been bet up from -4 to -5. Sharps do have a lot of respect for the SEC. Theyve done well betting them in postseason bowls vs. the Big 10 over the years. This is basically a preseason bowl, and the price was just over a field goal. Were hearing that Badgers money would come in at +6. The Over/Under has been bet down from 51 to 49.5.
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our waitress two nights ago told us about how she is from alaska and how all the florida keys are basically just national parks where you can camp out

 
Posted OSU last night.. In. I don't see having a crappy QB being an issue in this game. Ohio state has the better athlete every where else on the field. Let's do this!

 
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Reverse line movements food for thought this morning:

UCLA @ Virginia: 75% on UCLA line going from -23 to -19 Vegas line, my local showing -18.5 right now

Nebraska: 73% on Nebraska line going from -23.5 to -21.5 Vegas line, my local showing -21 right now

Washington @ Hawaii: 83% on Hawaii line going from -19.5 to -17. This was at 91% on Washington two hours ago.

OSU @ Navy: 70% on OSU line going from -17 to -14, this one is obviously understandable.

Have a good season folks.

 
tjnc09 said:
got_nugs said:
ChainsawU said:
it's gotta be the hawaii game. it's late! props for staying up late bro lock it in
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Getting some last minute qt time in w the missus. She and my kiddo leave for boston to initiate stage one of #### you cancer tomorrow so we are having too much wine and reminiscing. And watching scoring hopefully.
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Damn, that is awful to hear. I hope everything turns out for the better.
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You don't like scoring? :hifive: thanks.

 
Tiger Fan said:
Who likes free money?

For those of you who play the free Thursday deposit bets at SB, here’s a step by step on how to guarantee yourself b/w $1010-1031 with one game risk (through hedging). The exact $s may be off by a few bucks here or there due to line prices, but concepts are still the same.

What you’ll need

· You’re going to need at least $2500 in your account to apply to these hedges

· 3 games to bet on where you know each game will be complete before the next one begins [for this example, I’ll just call them (1) Thursday over (2) Friday over (3) Saturday over]. If you’re going for the $1000 one-game risk, you’re going to want the first game to be the strongest play (in a perfect world). Assume all bets are -110

Bet #1 (The Free Bet)

· Parlay your $500 free bet on Thursday over/Friday over/Saturday over

· Pays out $3000

Bet #2 (Only place the bet if Thursday over hits)

· Parlay $408 (from your balance) on Friday under/Saturday under

· Pays out $1060

Bet #3 (Only place the bet if Thursday & Friday over hits (i.e. First leg of Bet #2 loses)

· Bet $1560 (from your balance) on Saturday Under

· Pays out $1418

Bet #4 (Only place the bet if Thursday bet is now dead

· Bet $550 (from your balance) on Saturday over

· Pays out $500

You don’t lose any money in this scenario b/c your initial bet was a Free Bet. Here’s how the rest of the math shakes out:

· Bet #1 wins: Payout = $1031 ($3000-$408-$1560)

· Bet #2 wins: Payout = $500 ($1060-$550)

· Bet #3 wins: Payout = $1010 ($1418 - $408)

· Bet #4 wins: Payout = $500 (no additional hedges needed)

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Added a "bet #4 b/c I didn't account for the original parlay being dead after game 2. So numbers adjusted down accordingly. There's probably an option to get it to $750, but dont' have the time for the math right now. Sincerest apologies if anyone's mortgage depended on this

 
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