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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (4 Viewers)

got_nugs said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
Glennon time?
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Not that he was elite last year but I never understood why he was benched this year. McCrap is a 33 yo journeyman QB for a reason. He has a few good games throwing to a couple of freaks in Alshon and Brandon and now he's a starter? Granted, i'm a douchieidiot but I didn't get it.
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they didn't pay McCown that much so they can easily bench him. he makes the same amount as Orton signed for in Buffalo to be the backup to EJ.

at this point, not sure what they have to lose. although with the short week, maybe Glennon got no reps.

 
ZOMG!

Buccaneers @ Falcons Specials (Player Must Play for Action) (Multiple Winners Possible)
J Jones Over 125 Receiving Yards 09/18/14 20:25 EDT
+400

Buccaneers @ Falcons Specials (Player Must Play for Action) (Multiple Winners Possible)
J Jones Over 150 Receiving Yards 09/18/14 20:25 EDT
+1400
Click to expand...
 
Besides Iowa looks like Virginia is close to a play also at 47.5 and Utah St is at 48.

Will probably play both for smaller even if they dont close to 47

 
Tiger Fan said:
got_nugs said:
ZOMG!

Buccaneers @ Falcons Specials (Player Must Play for Action) (Multiple Winners Possible)

J Jones Over 125 Receiving Yards 09/18/14 20:25 EDT

+400

Buccaneers @ Falcons Specials (Player Must Play for Action) (Multiple Winners Possible)

J Jones Over 150 Receiving Yards 09/18/14 20:25 EDT

+1400
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
Nice. Shoulda played it myself
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DUDE! I thought you were on it, only reason I looked for it. Ugh man. Whiskey on me next time we meet up.

 
got_nugs said:
Tiger Fan said:
got_nugs said:
ZOMG!

Buccaneers @ Falcons Specials (Player Must Play for Action) (Multiple Winners Possible)

J Jones Over 125 Receiving Yards 09/18/14 20:25 EDT

+400

Buccaneers @ Falcons Specials (Player Must Play for Action) (Multiple Winners Possible)

J Jones Over 150 Receiving Yards 09/18/14 20:25 EDT

+1400
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
Nice. Shoulda played it myself
Click to expand...
DUDE! I thought you were on it, only reason I looked for it. Ugh man. Whiskey on me next time we meet up.
Click to expand...
Lol, I was debating plays at the time and rolled with Douglass only. We move on

 
Let's talk Sunday's games. I'm heading to Vegas mañana and want to key on a few games. More often than not I go contrarian, ala Bender, especially early in the season. Feel free to poke holes in my thoughts here and save me some money.

With that, I'll start off with the G-men. Love getting points at home and think they get a win against a 2- 0 Houston team who beat a RGI1/2 at home and the Raiders. Not sold on them and everyone is appalled with NY (who should be getting their O together a little by now). If they have any pride at all, this is a must, and Coughlin has been good before with his back against a wall.

Would LOVE to get Wash at 7, I think it will be a close one. Yep, going against another 2 - 0 team. Indy ran well on Philly (even Trent!) and I think the Skins will do the same. Might be my best bet (just now going through all of them).

Like Pitt in this spot. Embarrassed on Thurs at Balt and have extra time for Sunday nighter vs yet another 2 - 0 team...who beat Tampa and then got Detroit after a big opening Monday hangover (typical Detroit).

Speaking of Detroit, I expect a bounce-back and while not a game I like as much as others, that GB D makes me think Detroit will have their way all day. One of the few faves I like (at under 3).

While I'm at it why not the Titans getting 7 against the new darlings? Another 2 - 0 team. Actually, not in love with this at all -- Cinci does look very solid and their two wins were impressive ones -- but this is a letdown game and they gotta be looking ahead to New England on Sunday night. Definitely value there.

One 2 - 0 team I do kinda like is AZ. Everybody is assuming SF will rebound off that opening stadium debacle so you are getting a great price on the Cardinals. A field goal at home in one of the lower lined totals of the week is nice.

Finally, I'm all over Denver +5 already. It's a homer-y pick but I don't care. I like them regardless, too many points IMO, and they have a lot of guys going that they didn't have in the Superbowl.

Only one (slight) favorite in there... :excited:

 
Love your Skins play if you can get a full 7 (even if you have to buy 0.5).

No strong feelings either way about the middle of your card, and I hate your last two plays. Stanton blows and SEA just rolls folks at home.

Have fun! :banned:

 
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God bless y'all if you can watch this SLOP tomorrow night.... but here goes.

The South Florida Bulls have had trouble covering spreads at home, while the Connecticut Huskies have had the same problem on the road. It all adds up to an interesting Friday night in Tampa as the teams begin their American Athletic Conference play (8 p.m. ET, ESPN).

The Line:
South Florida -2, Total: 47.5

Line movement:
South Florida opened as high as -5 in Las Vegas on Sunday, but underdog money pushed the spread down past the key number '3'. Two days before game, the line sat between 2 and 2.5 around town. For updated lines from Vegas, visit our live odds page.

Trends that matter:
South Florida is 3-17-1 ATS in its last 21 home games.

The Huskies are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.

The underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five games between Connecticut and South Florida. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four.

South Florida a bad bet at home:
The Bulls have played all three of their games at home this year, going 1-2 SU and ATS. The only outright win came against FCS Western Carolina in the opener (36-31 as 27-point favorites).

Second-year coach Willie Taggart saw his team get outgained 589-159 in total yards last week against NC State (49-17 loss). Sophomore Mike White (89.3 rating) will remain the quarterback, although dual-threat freshman Quinton Flowers will see time again. The team suffers from a mediocre running game, and it doesn’t help that top receiver Andre Davis has been hurt.

Huskies’ offense struggling mightily:
The Huskies' (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) only win has also come against an FCS opponent, 19-16 over Stony Brook as 16.5-point favorites. All three games have been in Connecticut, and the road was a bad scenario last year (1-4 SU and ATS).

First-year coach Bob Diaco has seen his offense wilt at 16.7 PPG (ranked 115th). The team caught a bad break when sophomore quarterback Casey Cochran had to retire due to concussions. Senior Chandler Whitmer (110.8 rating) has started the last two games, and Tim Boyle could get snaps this week as well.

The Huskies do have talent at receiver with seniors Geremy Davis and Deshon Foxx, but the pass protection broke down last week (eight sacks) and the running game has been poor all year (1.9 ypc).

Injuries that matter:
In addition to Cochran, UConn defensive end Angelo Pruitt (leg) is out for the season.

South Florida wide receiver Davis (sternum) and guard Thor Jozwiak (shoulder) are both questionable after missing the last two games.

Weather:
Temperatures are expected to be low-80s with a chance of a thunderstorm.

The Linemakers' lean: We’ve got two bad offenses and one pretty good defense (Connecticut), and should see a carbon-copy of last year's meeting, when USF won 13-10 on the road. We have no opinion on the side, but the total looks high. The Linemakers' Kenny White made the total 46 and Micah Roberts said 43, but we’re looking at 47.5 on the board. Last years total was 40.5. These two teams have played UNDER the number in their last four meetings, and we think it‘ll happen again. The only play is the UNDER.
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Here are two money-line picks for this week’s college football card:

Mississippi State (3-0) @ LSU (3-0)

The LSU Tigers head into Week 4 for their first SEC matchup of the year as they host the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Past trends are fully in favor of coach Les Miles and LSU. He is 9-0 against Mississippi State, while Bulldogs coach Dan Mullen has been within 10 points of the Tigers just once in five matchups. The latest Vegas odds at the MGM Mirage have Mississippi State listed as a +310 underdog, numbers that suggest a 24 percent chance of winning the game.

After 10,000 simulations, though, AccuScore gives Mississippi State a 37 percent chance of pulling off the upset. AccuScore data would have Mississippi State listed as a +170 underdog, making the +310 enticing.

Bulldogs quarterback Dak Prescott has flown under the radar in the past, but he's a player worth keeping an eye on. He's had a Heisman-contending start to the season, and has displayed impressive efficiency. Prescott is projected to finish with 203 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, and a QB rating of 109.9. Given LSU’s advantage on defense, it’s understandable that after 10,000 simulations Prescott averages about 0.5 more turnovers than LSU quarterback Anthony Jennings.

Old Dominion (2-1) @ Rice (0-2)

The Old Dominion Monarchs open up Conference USA by heading to Rice Stadium to face an Owls team in search of its first win of the season. The latest Vegas odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook have Old Dominion listed as a +225 underdog, suggesting about a 31 percent chance of winning the game.

AccuScore has quite a bit more faith in the Monarchs pulling off the upset. After 10,000 simulations, Old Dominion has a 42 percent chance of winning. AccuScore data would have them listed at +135, suggesting a play on the +225 just might be worth it.

ODU needs to step its passing game up this week in order to pull off the upset. Despite coming out on top against Eastern Michigan last week, Monarchs quarterback Taylor Heinicke had just 187 yards with zero TDs. Expect a big turnaround from Heinicke as AccuScore projects him to finish with 391 yards, 2 TDS and a QB rating of 109.1. He does, however, average two-plus INTs in the 10,000-plus simulations, compared to less than one for Rice quarterback Driphus Jackson.

 
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If the New Orleans team total is 31 or less this week, put your first-born on the over. Judging by the spread and game total, we should be right in the neighborhood. The Saints are going for 40+ IMO.

 
I watched south Florida vs the terps two weeks ago and they looked decent. I know we got lucky with Boise last week but I'm convinced Uconn stinks.

One thing on that old dominion ML play Heinike hurt his shoulder last week. He played the second half and they swear he will play but he did miss practice so fat this week.

 
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