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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (4 Viewers)

lumpy19 said:
mquinnjr said:
ChainsawU said:
Jalapanose said:
Moral of the story is that you will never win playing garbage team trends. Guess what, for every trend you show for/against a team, I can produce likewise for their opponent. You're trying to use a mousetrap to kill something that people with atomic bombs can't kill.
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Can you show us anything you have contributed to the thread besides personal opinion before calling other dudes' info "garbage?" What the hell, dude. TF was just telling you a story about his day yesterday.
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:goodposting:

I post my leans, but generally don't back them up with stats unless I have them. Guys in here doing the lord's work pouring over stats and trends that are meaningful and have won over time, don't dismiss their hard work in here please.
Click to expand...
Trends are a huge waste of time. They may be interesting to read but they're useless for betting purposes IMO.
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Chain is the king of trends. Have you not noticed how he has KILLED it over the past year?

 
I'm on these tackle props tonight at 5d:

2u Robinson O6.5 tackles (-115)

1.25u Riley O6.5 tackles (-115)

I also like Wagner O9 (-115) at Bovada, but I'm cut there so played O9.5 (-120) at 5d.

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
I'm on these tackle props tonight at 5d:

2u Robinson O6.5 tackles (-115)

1.25u Riley O6.5 tackles (-115)

I also like Wagner O9 (-115) at Bovada, but I'm cut there so played O9.5 (-120) at 5d.
Click to expand...
What do you see in Robinson? Looks like he only eclipsed that mark once in his career although it was last game vs NYG

 
tjnc09 said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
I'm on these tackle props tonight at 5d:

2u Robinson O6.5 tackles (-115)

1.25u Riley O6.5 tackles (-115)

I also like Wagner O9 (-115) at Bovada, but I'm cut there so played O9.5 (-120) at 5d.
Click to expand...
What do you see in Robinson? Looks like he only eclipsed that mark once in his career although it was last game vs NYG
Click to expand...
#1 playing at home (lots of assists)

#2 should get plenty of snaps and tackle opportunities against the Seattle offense

he took over for London Fletcher this year so there's not a large sample size, but he has looked impressive. should be heavily involved and get to 9 or 10 tackles imo.

it's always a good idea to play Washington LB overs when they play at home, but I like it even more against the Seattle offense. He was lined at 7 when they faced the Giants, and crushed the number. Not sure why it was set so low here at all.

 
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tjnc09 said:
lumpy19 said:
mquinnjr said:
ChainsawU said:
Jalapanose said:
Moral of the story is that you will never win playing garbage team trends. Guess what, for every trend you show for/against a team, I can produce likewise for their opponent. You're trying to use a mousetrap to kill something that people with atomic bombs can't kill.
Click to expand...
Can you show us anything you have contributed to the thread besides personal opinion before calling other dudes' info "garbage?" What the hell, dude. TF was just telling you a story about his day yesterday.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:

I post my leans, but generally don't back them up with stats unless I have them. Guys in here doing the lord's work pouring over stats and trends that are meaningful and have won over time, don't dismiss their hard work in here please.
Click to expand...
Trends are a huge waste of time. They may be interesting to read but they're useless for betting purposes IMO.
Click to expand...
Chain is the king of trends. Have you not noticed how he has KILLED it over the past year?
Click to expand...
I pay no attention to the trends posts. I don't think it's a long term way to win at sports. It's easy to make trends say whatever you want them too. It's data mining.

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
tjnc09 said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
I'm on these tackle props tonight at 5d:

2u Robinson O6.5 tackles (-115)

1.25u Riley O6.5 tackles (-115)

I also like Wagner O9 (-115) at Bovada, but I'm cut there so played O9.5 (-120) at 5d.
Click to expand...
What do you see in Robinson? Looks like he only eclipsed that mark once in his career although it was last game vs NYG
Click to expand...
#1 playing at home (lots of assists)

#2 should get plenty of snaps and tackle opportunities against the Seattle offense

he took over for London Fletcher this year so there's not a large sample size, but he has looked impressive. should be heavily involved and get to 9 or 10 tackles imo.

it's always a good idea to play Washington LB overs when they play at home, but I like it even more against the Seattle offense. He was lined at 7 when they faced the Giants, and crushed the number. Not sure why it was set so low here at all.
Click to expand...
Interesting information, thanks. Recently started looking at these defensive props - see what you mean with WAS assists, looks like SEA, NE, BAL, BUF, WAS top 5? Do you ever split it in more detail such as conference vs non conference games?

 
There are trends and there are trends. Backfitting to obscure rules are the worse. That one NFL Network fantasy guy does that, lumping in performances vs whole divisions instead of more logical groups like home/away or specific teams they play a lot. Logic plays a large part in using them or not.

 
lumpy19 said:
tjnc09 said:
lumpy19 said:
mquinnjr said:
ChainsawU said:
Jalapanose said:
Moral of the story is that you will never win playing garbage team trends. Guess what, for every trend you show for/against a team, I can produce likewise for their opponent. You're trying to use a mousetrap to kill something that people with atomic bombs can't kill.
Click to expand...
Can you show us anything you have contributed to the thread besides personal opinion before calling other dudes' info "garbage?" What the hell, dude. TF was just telling you a story about his day yesterday.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:

I post my leans, but generally don't back them up with stats unless I have them. Guys in here doing the lord's work pouring over stats and trends that are meaningful and have won over time, don't dismiss their hard work in here please.
Click to expand...
Trends are a huge waste of time. They may be interesting to read but they're useless for betting purposes IMO.
Click to expand...
Chain is the king of trends. Have you not noticed how he has KILLED it over the past year?
Click to expand...
I pay no attention to the trends posts. I don't think it's a long term way to win at sports. It's easy to make trends say whatever you want them too. It's data mining.
Click to expand...
Anybody can make anything say whatever they want it to say. That's how people bet games. There are a million different variables that can be researched when picking a side or total.

I'd bet Chainsaw has easily posted the most winning sides and totals units of any poster in this thread this year. I find it strange to call a method "garbage" that has won this thread A LOT of money this year.

 
tjnc09 said:
Interesting information, thanks. Recently started looking at these defensive props - see what you mean with WAS assists, looks like SEA, NE, BAL, BUF, WAS top 5? Do you ever split it in more detail such as conference vs non conference games?
Click to expand...
I'm not sure the opponent matters. The way I understand it there is a scorekeeper or stats crew at each stadium, and they have different tendencies regarding how they assign tackles. Some are more predisposed to hand out a single solo tackle to the player primarily responsible for a tackle with no assist given out to anyone else who may have helped. Some are more predisposed to hand out 2 assists on a play rather than trying to pick out the player most responsible for making the tackle. And then some hand out a solo to the person who made the primary tackle and an assist to somebody else who contributed. Both of the latter two wind up awarding 2 "tackles" on a single play when they do this, which can inflate the overall numbers so you wind up with plenty more tackles awarded than actual tackle opportunities in a game.

I haven't spent much time breaking down how much this helps home vs away team as I think that difference will be rather small in comparison to the other patterns that emerge when you break things up by stadium or stat crew.

My top-5 last year for combined tackles/tackle opportunities were BUF, NYG, SEA, BAL, and WAS.

My bottom-5 last year were PHI, KC, JAX, MIA, STL

top-5 crews gave out about 52 assists per game on average (averaged about 1.28 tackles per opportunity)

bottom-5 crews gave out about 10 assists per game on average (averaged about .97 tackles per opportunity)

So, when you play a prop that treats solos and assists equally, that stadium impact can play a huge role and provide a big edge. I assume it should get factored into the lines already, but they don't always appear to account for it enough.

 
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Aaron Rudnicki said:
I assume it should get factored into the lines already,
Click to expand...
I would assume that it didn't. There isn't nearly the same amount of brain/computer power going into setting prop lines (hundreds every week, for football) that there is for sides/totals, where the lion's share of the money is.

Props are a loss leader, and I assume it comes down to just a couple of fairly knowledgeable-but-not-expert dudes in Tommy Bahama shirts in Central America.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
I assume it should get factored into the lines already,
Click to expand...
I would assume that it didn't. There isn't nearly the same amount of brain/computer power going into setting prop lines (hundreds every week, for football) that there is for sides/totals, where the lion's share of the money is.

Props are a loss leader, and I assume it comes down to just a couple of fairly knowledgeable-but-not-expert dudes in Tommy Bahama shirts in Central America.
Click to expand...
but they only offer tackle props for the primetime games, and usually just for 1 to 3 players per team. wouldn't take much at all for them to look at these trends and adjust the lines for Thursday night, Sunday night, and Monday night games.

just weird that Robinson was lined at 7 last week and now he's 6.5 despite a better matchup.

 
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Aaron Rudnicki said:
Good Posting Judge said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
I assume it should get factored into the lines already,
Click to expand...
I would assume that it didn't. There isn't nearly the same amount of brain/computer power going into setting prop lines (hundreds every week, for football) that there is for sides/totals, where the lion's share of the money is.

Props are a loss leader, and I assume it comes down to just a couple of fairly knowledgeable-but-not-expert dudes in Tommy Bahama shirts in Central America.
Click to expand...
but they only offer tackle props for the primetime games, and usually just for 1 to 3 players per team. wouldn't take much at all for them to look at these trends and adjust the lines for Thursday night, Sunday night, and Monday night games.

just weird that Robinson was lined at 7 last week and now he's 6.5 despite a better matchup.
Click to expand...
But how money are they really taking on IDP props? Even as props go, those have to be pretty far down the list in terms of popularity. I can't see some guy really putting a ton of research/effort in.

That said, I can't explain the Robinson thing either.

 
I took Cardinals even tonight.

I also took Cardinals +125 for the series. I'm basically fading Ryu tonight with Haren as the backup. If he doesn't go game 4, Dodgers have Hernandez or Correia on deck.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
But how money are they really taking on IDP props? Even as props go, those have to be pretty far down the list in terms of popularity. I can't see some guy really putting a ton of research/effort in.

That said, I can't explain the Robinson thing either.
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no clue. I'm guessing they aren't that popular, but I'm just grateful they offer them.

maybe they know something we don't know. if the money was insignificant to them, I'm not sure the online books would be cutting people's limits the way they do.

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
I'm on these tackle props tonight at 5d:

2u Robinson O6.5 tackles (-115)

1.25u Riley O6.5 tackles (-115)

I also like Wagner O9 (-115) at Bovada, but I'm cut there so played O9.5 (-120) at 5d.
Click to expand...
All up to -135 and worse at 5d now ####

 
Good Posting Judge said:
What's the record for most road 'dogs in one NFL week? Next week (8) has to be close.
Click to expand...
Week three in 2008 saw 15 road dogs and holds the record for most road dogs in an NFL week since 1989 (entire database). In week 14 last season there were 14 road dogs. link

 
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