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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (7 Viewers)

Aaron Rudnicki said:
tjnc09 said:
Interesting information, thanks. Recently started looking at these defensive props - see what you mean with WAS assists, looks like SEA, NE, BAL, BUF, WAS top 5? Do you ever split it in more detail such as conference vs non conference games?
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I'm not sure the opponent matters. The way I understand it there is a scorekeeper or stats crew at each stadium, and they have different tendencies regarding how they assign tackles. Some are more predisposed to hand out a single solo tackle to the player primarily responsible for a tackle with no assist given out to anyone else who may have helped. Some are more predisposed to hand out 2 assists on a play rather than trying to pick out the player most responsible for making the tackle. And then some hand out a solo to the person who made the primary tackle and an assist to somebody else who contributed. Both of the latter two wind up awarding 2 "tackles" on a single play when they do this, which can inflate the overall numbers so you wind up with plenty more tackles awarded than actual tackle opportunities in a game.

I haven't spent much time breaking down how much this helps home vs away team as I think that difference will be rather small in comparison to the other patterns that emerge when you break things up by stadium or stat crew.

My top-5 last year for combined tackles/tackle opportunities were BUF, NYG, SEA, BAL, and WAS.

My bottom-5 last year were PHI, KC, JAX, MIA, STL

top-5 crews gave out about 52 assists per game on average (averaged about 1.28 tackles per opportunity)

bottom-5 crews gave out about 10 assists per game on average (averaged about .97 tackles per opportunity)

So, when you play a prop that treats solos and assists equally, that stadium impact can play a huge role and provide a big edge. I assume it should get factored into the lines already, but they don't always appear to account for it enough.
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Ok, I was thinking backwards by starting with the actual number of tackles/assists in each stadium and each player has accumulated per game. Instead, you start with the projected number of plays (aka tackle opportunities) and apply some kind of relativity to do that. That makes more sense conceptually. I've never really thought about the pace of the defensive side for tackles/assists (IDP :fishy: ). thanks, that's why my top five assists teams differ from yours.

 
tjnc09 said:
Ok, I was thinking backwards by starting with the actual number of tackles/assists in each stadium and each player has accumulated per game. Instead, you start with the projected number of plays (aka tackle opportunities) and apply some kind of relativity to do that. That makes more sense conceptually. I've never really thought about the pace of the defensive side for tackles/assists (IDP :fishy: ). thanks, that's why my top five assists teams differ from yours.
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for me, I use these tendencies as a starting point because it helps tremendously to know generally how a game will be scored. if you know a crew if more predisposed to hand out assists, that means more plays where 2 players get credit for a tackle so you have a better chance to hit any overs. Obviously, you still need the game to go your way to some extent as you need an opposing offense to stay on the field enough to provide the IDP with sufficient tackle opportunities. But, with LBs (and strong safeties), you typically want them facing a running offense like Seattle who keeps things between the tackles because that will provide more tackle chances for them than a passing offense who spreads the ball all over the place, or a running team like the Eagles who does a lot of damage outside the tackles.

For most corners and defensive ends, they tend to make more solo stops so the assist tendencies don't come into play as much. Also harder to predict how often plays will be run to a particular area of the field and most of those guys aren't sideline to sideline players like linebackers and safeties can be.

 
Dan Lambskin said:
Tiger Fan said:
Seriously though, fake Gooroo isn't really cool at all.
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I've seen worse schtick
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The schtick is great. The potential for someone to lose money is pretty ####ty. Granted, in this case it was impossible b/c the prop didn't exist....but the # was similar Cousin's #, which is why I responded the way I did. Maybe GR typed RG3 instead of Cousin's by mistake :shrug:

Maybe I'm overreacting, and if so, that's fine. But if someone loses $ b/c of it, that sucks.

 
I want to call it 24-9 Seahawks. I did the 'Skins u20 -125 and u10 1H -125 just to pile on the u47 and SEA -7.5 -105 I bought on Thursday. Damn girl, are you garbage? Because I want to take you out. Works every time. Sincerely, Mr. Put Down Two and Pick Up Six.

 
ChainsawU said:
I want to call it 24-9 Seahawks. I did the 'Skins u20 -125 and u10 1H -125 just to pile on the u47 and SEA -7.5 -105 I bought on Thursday. Damn girl, are you garbage? Because I want to take you out. Works every time. Sincerely, Mr. Put Down Two and Pick Up Six.
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grabbed some unders also

 
got_nugs said:
Wow, Robinson didn't get a 1/2 on either of those tackles and then Riley didn't get one for pushing that TE ob?
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seriously rigged

hopefully it won't matter, but we were probably robbed of 2 for Robinson and 1 for Riley on those 3 consecutive plays.

1-10-SEA 44(6:42) (Shotgun) M.Lynch up the middle to SEA 49 for 5 yards (P.Riley).

2-5-SEA 49(6:04) (Shotgun) P.Harvin right end to WAS 45 for 6 yards (P.Riley).

1-10-WAS 45(5:20) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass deep left to C.Helfet ran ob at WAS 9 for 36 yards.

 
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Aaron Rudnicki said:
got_nugs said:
Wow, Robinson didn't get a 1/2 on either of those tackles and then Riley didn't get one for pushing that TE ob?
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seriously rigged

hopefully it won't matter, but we were probably robbed of 2 for Robinson and 1 for Riley on those 3 consecutive plays.

1-10-SEA 44(6:42) (Shotgun) M.Lynch up the middle to SEA 49 for 5 yards (P.Riley).

2-5-SEA 49(6:04) (Shotgun) P.Harvin right end to WAS 45 for 6 yards (P.Riley).

1-10-WAS 45(5:20) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass deep left to C.Helfet ran ob at WAS 9 for 36 yards.
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CLEARLY those were all missed IMO, regardless of my vested interest. I also saw an Alfred Morris run tackled by his ankles and (Wright I think) get credited to one of the safeties and thought that was odd.

Hopefully it's no issue.

 
This happens all the time with these stat crews unfortunately. The league makes a half ### effort to bring uniformity to the crews but no one really pushes for change inside the league's stat department. Tackles are -- and will always be -- an unofficial stat.

Why? Because there's no way Elias wants to field calls about the differences in solos and assists and horrible recording errors all day Monday and Tuesday.

Particularly bad tonight.

 
I wouldn't be giving as many assists as this particular crew does. [The person in charge of the stat crews quizzes me on what I would do a handful of times a year and I've taken a 20 question test he gives the crews and do better than they do.] But, acknowledging my bias, I think I'd have Robinson in the range of 5-1 currently and Riley with 6-2. Will be interesting to compare PFF game charting to this tomorrow.

 
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