FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (7 Viewers)

[ChainsawU]

Whenever I chill out at home by myself, which is often, sometimes I think about JB and his little dog pal and how my lifestyle mirrors his. My pooch is enjoying the calm weather and the moon on the back porch while she overlooks her back-yard domain after being inside for the last eight hours. I think bachelor life is the best and a good long-term solution.

 

[John Bender]

You gotta chase, bro.

I shouldn't

We go on big swings. He shipped 1200 to me a few months back. This month I shipped 1200 back to him.

We go back and forth. Play 2-3 times a week for 100-300 a game (loser of last tourney calls stakes for next one)

 

[John Bender]

Whenever I chill out at home by myself, which is often, sometimes I think about JB and his little dog pal and how my lifestyle mirrors it. My pooch is enjoying the calm weather and the moon on the back porch while she overlooks her back-yard domain after being inside for the last eight hours.

Kellie. The rescue. Sits around and sleep while I drink whiskey. Best dog ever and was on the verge of being euthanized if no one took her in. Felt bad yesterday because I lost my patience with her and yelled a bit too much.

 

[Raider Nation]

Steve Stevens released a 5✰ play on the Flyers tonight. No joke. The Bruins scored with 1:51 remaining to win it.

 

[ChainsawU]

DirecTV is giving the Calgary game in HD now. They weren't doing it earlier. It's on 770-1 in HD now. So now you don't have to watch in in SD like a degenerate. The channel is not even labeled correctly in the guide, but it exists. The pace in the game has been good so far.

 

[ChainsawU]

If you don't have DirecTV I can get you 100 dollars off to switch. A C-note.

 

[modogg]

If you don't have DirecTV I can get you 100 dollars off to switch. A C-note.

you could be like that chick in the commercial who pays like $13/month cause she has like 10 neighbors on that deal. It sounds like a sweet deal

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

wait a minute

vodka and cranberry is a girlie drink?

Thats been my go to for the last couple years

vodka cranberry is good

so is vodka iced tea

 

[Good Posting Judge]

So for that survivor pool i am in, this week coming up looks tricky. I can choose any team except for Denver, San Diego and Seattle. Last week only eliminated 27 people, so 675 left. The obvious picks people may gravitate too are Cincy (-7) over Carolina and Tenn (-6) over Jax. I don't really like either. Maybe people will back off of Cincy now with AJ being hurt, but I have to see more from that game last week to see if that was more of Carolina winning or Chicago losing. Cincy should come back and roll this week, but if that game was more of Carolina clicking to come back and win, i think staying away might be what i do there. So the one's i am thinking about are:

Arizona over Washington - In Arizona. This was my first instinct to play the Cards here, but i wonder how much the injuries to their defense will hold them back (no Patrick Peterson could really hurt, but Calais Campbell being out definitely hurts). Palmer and Stanton being iffy like they are makes me worried.I think Palmer will start, but who knows if he isn't re-injured in the 2nd Q, and logan Thomas is in the rest of the game. Washington has also looked good. People made a big deal out of their slaughter by NYG, but i have read a bunch about how tired they were after the Eagles game.

Atlanta over Chicago - In Atlanta. that's a biggie, finally home again. I worry about their defense and OL, but Matt Ryan still seems to be surviving. So again, is this Chicago coming up limp a few weeks in a row and showing some significant holes, or were they just unlucky? Chicago should come out like bats out of hell, like they did against Carolina. I definitely am leaning toward staying away, unless i hear some good news about Atlanta.

Green Bay over Miami - Game is in Miami, with them coming off a bye. But green Bay seems to be clicking now. 2 teams i do not know enough about to feel too confident, but Green Bay would seem to be a consideration.

Maybe Detroit over Minny in Minny, but that would have me scared the whole game. SF should beat up on STL on Monday night, but i don't trust SF for anything still. the rest of the games are a bunch on intra-divisional games. I like Philly over NYG, but can hardly depend on this team right now. Indy-Hou and Pitt-Cle are not games i feel good picking at all.

I'd go with the home team that's a TD favorite. No faith in Logan Thomas, wouldn't wanna mess with a road team unless they were a massive favorite. Despite MNF, Cincy's pretty damn strong.

 

[Raider Nation]

Did Sportsbook post SOG numbers tonight, out of curiosity? I think my GB still has a virgin account.

 

[modogg]

Woah, Sharks didn't get the memo about letting the Kings win this one. I never liked them anyway

 

[ChainsawU]

Andrew Luck is 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS versus his division, the AFC South. His two losses versus the AFC South was his first career game versus the AFC South as a 3-point home favorite hosting the Jags in week 3 of 2012 (his third career pro game). The second loss was versus the Texans in Houston as a 10-point dog in week 15 of 2012. Since then - since that week 15 loss versus the Texans - Luck and the Colts have gone 9-0 SU and ATS (avg line -4.6) versus the AFC South. I would take the Colts in survivor for the second week in a row.

 

[ChainsawU]

Indianapolis Colts -3 100/100

 

[ChainsawU]

Colts/Browns/Chargers 115/330

 

[tjnc09]

Is there a way I can figure out what the Giants-Royals or Giants-Orioles World Series price would be?

 

[ChainsawU]

Take the "S" out of safe and the "F" out of way.

Spoiler

There is no "F" in way.

 

[ChainsawU]

One day a man and his dog walk into a bar.

The owner of the dog says to the bartender, "I'll bet you 10 dollars my dog can talk."

The bartender, naturally, accepts.

Suddenly the dog starts reciting the National Anthem.

The bartender lays down ten dollars, the dog grabs it, and runs out the door.

When the owner runs after the dog he finds him in the middle of the street (kissing) a poodle.

The owner says to his dog, "What are you doing? You've never done this before."

The dog responds, "I've never had ten dollars before."

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

how do you track the tackles? Been digging around PFF and noticed they do them also. This was week 5

I'm not sure exactly what you're asking. Tackles are reported in NFL Gamebooks and I assume are reported elsewhere (ESPN, yahoo, etc.) in the box scores too.

I mainly use the data from FBG but can quickly collect the relevant information I need from looking at the gamebooks each week.

I track 3 key pieces of information and organize them by stadium, so I don't care much which teams are involved as I'm mainly trying to determine stat crew tendencies regardless of what is happening on the field.

1. # of Tackle opportunities for both teams combined (rush attempts, completed passes, and sacks). These are plays where tackles are typically going to be awarded (excluding QB kneel downs, which count as a rush attempt but no tackles are given out).

2. # of Solo Tackles awarded for both teams combined

3. # of Assisted Tackles awarded for both teams combined.

Then, I mainly look at (Solos + Assists) / Tackle Opps to figure out how much inflation each crew provides. Bigger numbers = better for overs on tackle props. Lower numbers = better for unders on tackle props.

That's the starting point, but I think it gives a great idea of how tackles will be scored in a game, and then everything else can flow from there. There's lots of additional ways to break down the numbers, but I've found this to be the most helpful for tackle props.

 

[ChainsawU]

i used to get the same looks when i drank Cranberry and vodkas. These were mostly at penny drink specials

if your vodka and cranberry is really really red that's cuz you didn't order vodka buddy

 

[ChainsawU]

Mo I know you either just got the really good hook up on bud or you are jacked for this survivor competition. Or fantasy. Regardless of whatever bro. Regardless of whatever.

 

[modogg]

Mo I know you either just got the really good hook up on bud or you are jacked for this survivor competition. Or fantasy. Regardless of whatever bro. Regardless of whatever.

If i win, yeah . I'm liking riding Cincy, even without AJ. Hopefully that scares people off, and some of the other favorite lose

 

[ChainsawU]

Dalton is 10-3 SU v NFC

IN

 

[tjnc09]

Dalton is 10-3 SU v NFC

IN

THERE HE IS!!!

 

[ChainsawU]

I will tell you what is legit smart is reading books. You read books and are instantly propelled into automatic social status, being able to have dinner conversation with others.

 

[tjnc09]

I will tell you what is legit smart is reading books. You read books and are instantly propelled into automatic social status, being able to have dinner conversation with others.

I picked up "The Book: Playing the Percentagesi in Baseball" and a daily fantasy book this last weekend #nerd convos

 

[tjnc09]

Whenever I chill out at home by myself, which is often, sometimes I think about JB and his little dog pal and how my lifestyle mirrors it. My pooch is enjoying the calm weather and the moon on the back porch while she overlooks her back-yard domain after being inside for the last eight hours.

Kellie. The rescue. Sits around and sleep while I drink whiskey. Best dog ever and was on the verge of being euthanized if no one took her in. Felt bad yesterday because I lost my patience with her and yelled a bit too much.

rescues. I have two rescues. A pit bull mix and a lab mix. I spent more money fixing my

Pit bull mix's ACLs than some people spend on an used car. But they are like family to me and wouldn't have it any other way. Never ever a time they aren't excited when I come home.

 

[Bojang0301]

I understand the NFL is fickle but Ben Roethlisberger owns the Browns. Owns them in a way that makes club rats shiver. Cleveland opening as the favorites is a thing of beauty.

15-1: http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2013/11/cleveland_browns_are_sick_of_l.html

 

[swirvenirvin]

how do you track the tackles? Been digging around PFF and noticed they do them also. This was week 5

I'm not sure exactly what you're asking. Tackles are reported in NFL Gamebooks and I assume are reported elsewhere (ESPN, yahoo, etc.) in the box scores too.

I mainly use the data from FBG but can quickly collect the relevant information I need from looking at the gamebooks each week.

I track 3 key pieces of information and organize them by stadium, so I don't care much which teams are involved as I'm mainly trying to determine stat crew tendencies regardless of what is happening on the field.

1. # of Tackle opportunities for both teams combined (rush attempts, completed passes, and sacks). These are plays where tackles are typically going to be awarded (excluding QB kneel downs, which count as a rush attempt but no tackles are given out).

2. # of Solo Tackles awarded for both teams combined

3. # of Assisted Tackles awarded for both teams combined.

Then, I mainly look at (Solos + Assists) / Tackle Opps to figure out how much inflation each crew provides. Bigger numbers = better for overs on tackle props. Lower numbers = better for unders on tackle props.

That's the starting point, but I think it gives a great idea of how tackles will be scored in a game, and then everything else can flow from there. There's lots of additional ways to break down the numbers, but I've found this to be the most helpful for tackle props.

what I think I am saying is PFF does all this for you

 

[Billy Bats]

wait a minute

vodka and cranberry is a girlie drink?

Thats been my go to for the last couple years

As a former bartender, when you ask them for a Vodka/Cran and your girl isn't standing next to you, they're thinking "really, man?"

 

[fantasycurse42]

wait a minute

vodka and cranberry is a girlie drink?

Thats been my go to for the last couple years

As a former bartender, when you ask them for a Vodka/Cran, they're thinking "really, man?"

Ruling on a Margarita?

 

[Billy Bats]

wait a minute

vodka and cranberry is a girlie drink?

Thats been my go to for the last couple years

As a former bartender, when you ask them for a Vodka/Cran, they're thinking "really, man?"

Ruling on a Margarita?

Acceptable in a tropical setting, over the line in the city.

 

[fantasycurse42]

wait a minute

vodka and cranberry is a girlie drink?

Thats been my go to for the last couple years

As a former bartender, when you ask them for a Vodka/Cran, they're thinking "really, man?"

Ruling on a Margarita?

Acceptable in a tropical setting, over the line in the city.

Tequila is my liquor of choice, but usually the only drink on the menu is a margarita. Been trying to shift into gimlets lately bc I suspected this

 

[comfortably numb]

wait a minute

vodka and cranberry is a girlie drink?

Thats been my go to for the last couple years

As a former bartender, when you ask them for a Vodka/Cran and your girl isn't standing next to you, they're thinking "really, man?"

Ugh.

Slim it better when I say

Goose/cranberry

Stoli/cranberry

?

 

[Billy Bats]

wait a minute

vodka and cranberry is a girlie drink?

Thats been my go to for the last couple years

As a former bartender, when you ask them for a Vodka/Cran and your girl isn't standing next to you, they're thinking "really, man?"

Ugh.Slim it better when I say

Goose/cranberry

Stoli/cranberry

?

Strike two, it adds a second thought of "and he's ruining good vodka too?" Just order a Macallen neat along with the fruity and they won't think twice.

 

[Peyton Marino]

is there an advanced stats website for basketball that you guys use? something like fangraphs, PFF, behindthenet, but for basketball? along those lines, are there any decent fantasy basketball sites to read up on preseason rankings, etc. TIA.

 

[lumpy19]

Is there a way I can figure out what the Giants-Royals or Giants-Orioles World Series price would be?

Yes, 5dimes did the work for you if you're looking for a quick answer

St. Louis Cardinals vs Baltimore Orioles +202

San Francisco Giants vs Baltimore Orioles +274

St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals +289

San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals +382

 

[VA703]

wait a minute

vodka and cranberry is a girlie drink?

Thats been my go to for the last couple years

As a former bartender, when you ask them for a Vodka/Cran and your girl isn't standing next to you, they're thinking "really, man?"

Ugh.Slim it better when I say

Goose/cranberry

Stoli/cranberry

?

Strike two, it adds a second thought of "and he's ruining good vodka too?" Just order a Macallen neat along with the fruity and they won't think twice.

whats the ruling on a whiskey sour

 

[Billy Bats]

wait a minute

vodka and cranberry is a girlie drink?

Thats been my go to for the last couple years

As a former bartender, when you ask them for a Vodka/Cran and your girl isn't standing next to you, they're thinking "really, man?"

Ugh.Slim it better when I say

Goose/cranberry

Stoli/cranberry

?

Strike two, it adds a second thought of "and he's ruining good vodka too?" Just order a Macallen neat along with the fruity and they won't think twice.

whats the ruling on a whiskey sour

Initial reaction is it's an old soul's drink, but sour mix has a stereotype too and ruins good alcohol. Not on the vodka/cran level though. Acceptable.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

what I think I am saying is PFF does all this for you

I don't see tackle opportunities listed in their table, even though they refer to them in the text.

 

[tjnc09]

Is there a way I can figure out what the Giants-Royals or Giants-Orioles World Series price would be?

Yes, 5dimes did the work for you if you're looking for a quick answer

St. Louis Cardinals vs Baltimore Orioles +202

San Francisco Giants vs Baltimore Orioles +274

St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals +289

San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals +382

Thanks. I meant assuming the championship series were over. I would guess Baltimore or KC would be around -130 or -135 against SF. I would think there is some way since I have the Championship series prices and the prices to win the WS.

 

[comfortably numb]

I'm thinking of hitting the NBA future hard on CLE

What am I missing here. This looks off to me.

CLE to win

Div -160

Con -125

NBA- +125

I would have thought the latter 2 would pay more.

Anyway CLE doesn't win this division pretty easily?

 

[swirvenirvin]

what I think I am saying is PFF does all this for you

I don't see tackle opportunities listed in their table, even though they refer to them in the text.

got it so just using assists and a % of total tackles isnt enough you think

 

[Angry Beavers]

I'm thinking of hitting the NBA future hard on CLE

What am I missing here. This looks off to me.

CLE to win

Div -160

Con -125

NBA- +125

I would have thought the latter 2 would pay more.

Anyway CLE doesn't win this division pretty easily?

IMHO, they should, and that fact is built into the price. As much as this seems like free money. this team has never played together, they have a rookie Head Coach who has never coached in the NBA and injuries can happen. and oh yea, Cleveland hasn't won anything in 50 years so they have all that to overcome as well.

Living in Cleveland for nearly 30 years it would be great if the Cavs won the whole thing, but I think those odds represent a bad bet. Just my $.02 Good Luck whatever you choose.

 

[comfortably numb]

I'm thinking of hitting the NBA future hard on CLE

What am I missing here. This looks off to me.

CLE to win

Div -160

Con -125

NBA- +125

I would have thought the latter 2 would pay more.

Anyway CLE doesn't win this division pretty easily?

IMHO, they should, and that fact is built into the price. As much as this seems like free money. this team has never played together, they have a rookie Head Coach who has never coached in the NBA and injuries can happen. and oh yea, Cleveland hasn't won anything in 50 years so they have all that to overcome as well.Living in Cleveland for nearly 30 years it would be great if the Cavs won the whole thing, but I think those odds represent a bad bet. Just my $.02 Good Luck whatever you choose.

I'm leaning just division as I don't like the value on the other 2

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

what I think I am saying is PFF does all this for you

I don't see tackle opportunities listed in their table, even though they refer to them in the text.

got it so just using assists and a % of total tackles isnt enough you think

it's a big part of the picture, but some games have more plays/tackle opportunities than others so I try to factor that in as well to minimize impact of team playing styles. for example, seattle in recent years tends to get off the field on 3rd downs due to their defense and then shorten the game by running the ball effectively. this will limit the number of plays and tackle opportunities in that stadium compared to philadelphia usually. lots of incomplete passes can drive the numbers down as well.

Here's what the week 5 numbers look like as an example:

TOPS SOLO ASST T/OPP ASST/TOT

NYG 104 100 50 1.44 33%

WAS 96 67 54 1.26 45%

NE 104 69 60 1.24 47%

SD 97 92 24 1.20 21%

CAR 99 60 58 1.19 49%

SF 90 80 27 1.19 25%

GB 97 74 41 1.19 36%

IND 103 78 42 1.17 35%

NO 105 79 37 1.10 32%

TEN 111 82 40 1.10 33%

DET 97 85 21 1.09 20%

DAL 108 92 24 1.07 21%

JAX 93 81 14 1.02 15%

PHI 112 93 14 0.96 13%

DEN 92 79 7 0.93 8%

[SIZE=10pt]not sure if formatting will work or not here, but [/SIZE]there were a lot more tackle opportunities in Tennessee and Philadelphia compared to the games in San Francisco and Denver.

If you rank by Tackles Per Opportunity, you don't get the same results as looking at assists as a percentage of total tackles, but they are heavily correlated. That PFF article mentions Tennessee as being favorable, but for the metric I prefer they only ranked about average here (1.10 tackles/opp)

also, that PFF article mentions 1.77 tackles per opportunity in the Giants game but I'm only seeing 1.44 so not sure what they are using for a denominator.

BTW, prime time game in Houston tonight. Not seeing much of an edge there. Through 2 home games this year, they rank near the bottom in average tackle opportunities/game (99.0) and are average with regard to tackles/opportunity (1.13). Their numbers in 2013 were very similar.

EDIT: I think they are counting special teams tackles, and tackles after turnovers. I haven't been so that would probably explain some of the differences.

EDIT AGAIN: Seattle actually has the 2nd most tackle opps per game this year (110.5 is right behind Philly with 112.7). San Francisco ranks dead last with 92.7. Next most is Detroit with 98.

 

[VA703]

I don't see why tonight's line is only -2.5 IND

 

[swirvenirvin]

This is what I just threw together.

Agreed looks like no edge on Houston tonight.

Sunday Night Philly crew looks to be pretty stingy and the same with Stl...

Tm	Total	Solo	Assist	% of assists 	Games	Tackles per gameKC	219	201	18	8%	2	109.5OAK	244	216	28	11%	2	122SL	231	202	29	13%	2	115.5MIA	253	221	32	13%	2	126.5PHI	354	308	46	13%	2	177JAX	220	182	38	17%	2	110DET	336	277	59	18%	2	168DEN	336	277	59	18%	2	168SF	340	278	62	18%	2	170SEA	249	200	49	20%	2	124.5SD	271	217	54	20%	2	135.5PIT	271	217	54	20%	2	135.5ATL	230	183	47	20%	2	115ARZ	230	183	47	20%	2	115TEN	267	199	68	25%	2	133.5TB	267	199	68	25%	2	133.5DAL	359	267	92	26%	2	179.5NO	244	177	67	27%	2	122NE	244	177	67	27%	3	122NYG	413	293	120	29%	2	206.5GB	245	172	73	30%	2	122.5MIN	244	168	76	31%	3	122HST	263	177	86	33%	3	131.5CHI	247	165	82	33%	3	123.5IND	385	257	128	33%	3	192.5BUF	325	214	111	34%	3	162.5CIN	254	164	90	35%	3	127CAR	367	235	132	36%	3	183.5CLV	261	161	100	38%	3	130.5BLT	396	222	174	44%	3	198WAS	426	234	192	45%	3	213NYJ	452	246	206	46%	3	226

 

[swirvenirvin]

I don't see why tonight's line is only -2.5 IND

they are missing two starting guards

 

[swirvenirvin]

2014 Summary Units RecordWeek 1 1.38 20-17Week 2 3.38 24-18Week 3 10.49 28-16Week 4 -5.99 26-27Week 5 0.88 22-17Bovada early special

Hillman under 55.5 rushing -115

ETA link http://espn.go.com/blog/denver-broncos/post/_/id/9189/on-the-broncos-and-workload-for-running-backs

TNF

Johnson under 66.5 receiving -115

Hopkins over 4.5 receptions -115

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Leaning u6.5 on Waino/Bumgarner.