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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (2 Viewers)

swirvenirvin said:
swirvenirvin, on 09 Oct 2014 - 11:50 AM, said:2014 Summary Units RecordWeek 1 1.38 20-17Week 2 3.38 24-18Week 3 10.49 28-16Week 4 -5.99 26-27Week 5 0.88 22-17Bovada early special

Hillman under 55.5 rushing -115

ETA link http://espn.go.com/blog/denver-broncos/post/_/id/9189/on-the-broncos-and-workload-for-running-backs

TNF

Johnson under 66.5 receiving -115

Hopkins over 4.5 receptions -115
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Not seeing the value with Hillman. Assuming a Denver win, I'd say 12-13 carries is the absolute floor.

 
I'm thinking that there will be some level of value in betting both ECU and Marshall as soon as the lines are open for the next few weeks. These lines do nothing but go up and it seems like you can buy back on Sat and lock in a profit.

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
Aaron Rudnicki, on 09 Oct 2014 - 11:10 AM, said:
swirvenirvin said:
swirvenirvin, on 09 Oct 2014 - 10:49 AM, said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
Aaron Rudnicki, on 09 Oct 2014 - 10:19 AM, said:
swirvenirvin said:
swirvenirvin, on 09 Oct 2014 - 07:39 AM, said:what I think I am saying is PFF does all this for you
Click to expand...
I don't see tackle opportunities listed in their table, even though they refer to them in the text.
Click to expand...
got it so just using assists and a % of total tackles isnt enough you think
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it's a big part of the picture, but some games have more plays/tackle opportunities than others so I try to factor that in as well to minimize impact of team playing styles. for example, seattle in recent years tends to get off the field on 3rd downs due to their defense and then shorten the game by running the ball effectively. this will limit the number of plays and tackle opportunities in that stadium compared to philadelphia usually. lots of incomplete passes can drive the numbers down as well.

Here's what the week 5 numbers look like as an example:

TOPS SOLO ASST T/OPP ASST/TOT

NYG 104 100 50 1.44 33%

WAS 96 67 54 1.26 45%

NE 104 69 60 1.24 47%

SD 97 92 24 1.20 21%

CAR 99 60 58 1.19 49%

SF 90 80 27 1.19 25%

GB 97 74 41 1.19 36%

IND 103 78 42 1.17 35%

NO 105 79 37 1.10 32%

TEN 111 82 40 1.10 33%

DET 97 85 21 1.09 20%

DAL 108 92 24 1.07 21%

JAX 93 81 14 1.02 15%

PHI 112 93 14 0.96 13%

DEN 92 79 7 0.93 8%

[SIZE=10pt]not sure if formatting will work or not here, but [/SIZE]there were a lot more tackle opportunities in Tennessee and Philadelphia compared to the games in San Francisco and Denver.

If you rank by Tackles Per Opportunity, you don't get the same results as looking at assists as a percentage of total tackles, but they are heavily correlated. That PFF article mentions Tennessee as being favorable, but for the metric I prefer they only ranked about average here (1.10 tackles/opp)

also, that PFF article mentions 1.77 tackles per opportunity in the Giants game but I'm only seeing 1.44 so not sure what they are using for a denominator.

BTW, prime time game in Houston tonight. Not seeing much of an edge there. Through 2 home games this year, they rank near the bottom in average tackle opportunities/game (99.0) and are average with regard to tackles/opportunity (1.13). Their numbers in 2013 were very similar.

EDIT: I think they are counting special teams tackles, and tackles after turnovers. I haven't been so that would probably explain some of the differences.

EDIT AGAIN: Seattle actually has the 2nd most tackle opps per game this year (110.5 is right behind Philly with 112.7). San Francisco ranks dead last with 92.7. Next most is Detroit with 98.
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Additional food for though....taking this a step further, do we assume tackle opportunities are equal opportunity, or is a tackle opportunity for a linebacker greater while playing with a 10 point deficit, and lesser for said linebacker playing with a 10 point cushion. Obbviously, corners and safeties would be the inverse.

 
TheGooRoo said:
Additional food for though....taking this a step further, do we assume tackle opportunities are equal opportunity, or is a tackle opportunity for a linebacker greater while playing with a 10 point deficit, and lesser for said linebacker playing with a 10 point cushion. Obbviously, corners and safeties would be the inverse.
Click to expand...
I definitely try to factor that in when determining which player props to play and for how much. For example, if one team seems much better they will likely be running the ball a lot in the second half to protect a lead while the other team will be throwing a lot. I think both of those scenarios tend to be good situations for a linebacker or strong safety, but would consider seeing a lot of rush attempts to be bad for a CB or FS and a lot of pass attempts is usually bad for a DE. But, as we've seen with quite a few games already this year, things don't always go according to plan. So, I just want to lean heavier on overs when there's a favorable crew and vice versa.

 
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TheGooRoo said:
swirvenirvin said:
swirvenirvin, on 09 Oct 2014 - 11:50 AM, said:2014 Summary Units RecordWeek 1 1.38 20-17Week 2 3.38 24-18Week 3 10.49 28-16Week 4 -5.99 26-27Week 5 0.88 22-17Bovada early special

Hillman under 55.5 rushing -115

ETA link http://espn.go.com/blog/denver-broncos/post/_/id/9189/on-the-broncos-and-workload-for-running-backs

TNF

Johnson under 66.5 receiving -115

Hopkins over 4.5 receptions -115
Click to expand...
Not seeing the value with Hillman. Assuming a Denver win, I'd say 12-13 carries is the absolute floor.
Click to expand...
beat writers saying he will get 50-55% of carries

broncos RB's avg 20.75 carries per game. So we are talking about 11-12 carries here vs a Jets team that has been very good against the run beside Oliver gashing them. They got embarassed last week, and think they may come out with a little bit of a chip. Stats say this should be good unless Broncos blow them out. Not like Denver has been running all over teams they are ranked 29th in rushing. Most teams has been agressivley passing vs the Jets at a 62% clip (before last weeks blowout)

Prior to last week gave up numbers like

MJD/McFadden combined 11 -25

Lacy 13-43

Forte 13-33

R. Bush 12-46

J. Bell 8-32

Oliver 19-114

D. Brown 9-26

Draughn 10-19

Thats my logic at least

 
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from the LineMakers:

There are a pair of football games for your wagering pleasure this evening, and we have picks for your consideration on both.

In the NFL, it’s the Houston Texans hosting the Indianapolis Colts (8:25 p.m., CBS), and if the two top dogs of the AFC South give the audience a competitive game, it will be the first one on a Thursday night all year.

Both teams are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS.

The line: Colts -3 (even), Total: 46.5

Line movement: Indy opened at -2.5 at multiple Las Vegas bet shops, with the line sitting between -2.5 and -3 (with various juice attached), as of about 1 p.m. ET on gameday. The total has nudged upward from opening numbers of 45.5 and 46 to the current 46.5 to 47 range.

The Linemakers' lean: After big efforts last week, we expect both teams to have bit of a letdown this week, and letdowns are more apt to occur on defense, rather than offense. There will be two good offenses facing rather average defenses tonight, according to The Linemakers' Kenny White, who has an OVER ticket in his pocket.

In college football action, BYU, sans star QB Taysom Hill, is in Orlando to take on Central Florida. The Cougars lost Hill to a season-ending injury in last week’s loss to Utah State.

The line: UCF -3, Total: 45

Line movement: The Wynn opened the Knights at -3.5 on Sunday, quickly dropped them to -3, and was back up to -3.5 on Monday. But underdog money has come in, and while the spread moved to 2.5 at some shops, +3s are available for BYU backers. UNDER money has pushed the total down from as high as 47.5.

The Linemakers' lean: Let's take a look at the lines against a common opponent -- Houston -- to help us determine if there's been an overreaction to Hill's absence: BYU was a 17-point home favorite over Houston, UCF was a 2-point road dog against them. After factoring in home field, those numbers equate to about a 12-point difference between tonight's combatants. The drop-off from Hill to backup Christian Stewart is about 7 points, so we're still looking at a 5-point ratings advantage for BYU. Yet, the Cougars are a dog here.

Statistically, BYU's defense is No. 11 against the run, and UCF QB Justin Holman isn't scaring anyone. We'll take BYU as the underdog.

In terms of the total, we'll look for BYU to keep it conservative and for UCF to have trouble moving the ball. Also, the Cougars trend UNDER on the road, while the Knights trend UNDER at home. We liked UNDER 47, so some of that value has been bought up.

Our partner, AccuScore, has a money-line play:

Money-line odds in Vegas have BYU as a +150 underdog tonight, implying a 40 percent chance of winning.

AccuScore data leans a bit more heavily towards the visiting team than do the books. As opposed to the 40 percent chance the odds give BYU, AccuScore simulations indicate a 52 percent chance of winning. AccuScore would have listed the Cougars as slight -110 favorites.

When the books have one side listed as an underdog, but AccuScore has them as a favorite, it’s a highly advisable play. BYU at +150 is an attractive wager

 
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numb what were we drinking that preceded bathtubgate? I'm pretty sure zula and I ended the night with whiskey shots but I don't recall if we were mixing red bull/goose w Guinness or what.

Got a headache just thinking about it.

 
got_nugs said:
numb what were we drinking that preceded bathtubgate? I'm pretty sure zula and I ended the night with whiskey shots but I don't recall if we were mixing red bull/goose w Guinness or what.

Got a headache just thinking about it.
Click to expand...
Your darling wife got me to try vodka and red bull. I tried about 13 of them.

Looking back I'm not sure how I was able to sleep. Would have that that mixture would keep me up for 5 nights

 
this seemed interesting from PFF regarding tonight's matchup:

Chargers at Raiders, Colts at Texans, Cowboys at SeahawksThese three contests are listed together because each home team struggles to produce offensive snaps and will host visitors that allow a bottom-five number of plays per game. However the devil is in the details, as each game presents different circumstances. Even more than usual, every Raider is a must-avoid this week. The ironically-named Chargers squeeze the life out of strong offenses, and Oakland’s is about as far from that as it gets. The only good news for anyone starting Raiders this week is fantasy hockey is about to drop the puck.

The Texans don’t have to travel for Thursday Night Football, but they do face a Colts team that leads the league in offensive plays per game and is averaging 81 snaps in their last two contests. Indy’s opponents have snapped it just 53 times over the last three games on average. We saw a similar muting effect on Houston’s offense last week in Dallas (56 snaps), with only Arian Foster finishing as a top-28 fantasy option at his position. The Colts run defense (-10.7; 21st-graded) isn’t strong, but they’re nowhere near the level of the Cowboys’ clown show (-23.0; NFL-worst). Don’t expect any miracles from a volume-dependent receiver like Andre Johnson.

Speaking of Jerrah’s spectacular smoke-and-mirrors show, it’s no coincidence that the Cowboys’ four wins have come against run defenses graded in the bottom-half of the league, including the Saints (17th), Rams (23rd), Texans (28th), and Titans (29th). They lost to the 49ers (5th-best run defense) and now face the Seahawks (7th) on the road, where Dallas’ delicate tightrope act will lose its balance. Seattle doesn’t run many plays anyway (61 per game; 24th), and their offensive weapons should be deployed as you typically would. The 47.5 over/under is actually tied for the fourth-highest this week, so it’d be tough to fade this game even if there was good reason to.
Click to expand...
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/10/08/snaps-pace-stats-week-6/

assuming the Colts control the ball for most of the game, I'd lean unders for most Texans offensive players and Colts defensive players and vice versa.

 
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@RonFromLasVegas

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS GUARDS JACK MEWHORT & HUGH THORNTON BOTH OUT TONIGHT:AND WHY ANY ONE WOULD BACK LUCK WITH J .J WATT IN GAME

@HouseOfHouston

I smell a Tex-tastic game out of J.J. Watt -- key o-linemen Jack Mewhort & Hugh Thornton are out making it easier to get to Luck!

@zkeefer

#Colts will be without both starting guards (Hugh Thornton/Jack Mewhort) Thursday. JJ Watt must be licking his chops

Not surprisingly, over 80% of the $ at SBR has come in on Houston.

 
ChainsawU said:
@RonFromLasVegas

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS GUARDS JACK MEWHORT & HUGH THORNTON BOTH OUT TONIGHT:AND WHY ANY ONE WOULD BACK LUCK WITH J .J WATT IN GAME

@HouseOfHouston

I smell a Tex-tastic game out of J.J. Watt -- key o-linemen Jack Mewhort & Hugh Thornton are out making it easier to get to Luck!

@zkeefer

#Colts will be without both starting guards (Hugh Thornton/Jack Mewhort) Thursday. JJ Watt must be licking his chops

Not surprisingly, over 80% of the $ at SBR has come in on Houston.
Click to expand...
Any chance Colts backers get the hook by kick off? Colts +3 at +105 sounds like we're getting close.

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
this seemed interesting from PFF regarding tonight's matchup:

Chargers at Raiders, Colts at Texans, Cowboys at SeahawksThese three contests are listed together because each home team struggles to produce offensive snaps and will host visitors that allow a bottom-five number of plays per game. However the devil is in the details, as each game presents different circumstances. Even more than usual, every Raider is a must-avoid this week. The ironically-named Chargers squeeze the life out of strong offenses, and Oakland’s is about as far from that as it gets. The only good news for anyone starting Raiders this week is fantasy hockey is about to drop the puck.

The Texans don’t have to travel for Thursday Night Football, but they do face a Colts team that leads the league in offensive plays per game and is averaging 81 snaps in their last two contests. Indy’s opponents have snapped it just 53 times over the last three games on average. We saw a similar muting effect on Houston’s offense last week in Dallas (56 snaps), with only Arian Foster finishing as a top-28 fantasy option at his position. The Colts run defense (-10.7; 21st-graded) isn’t strong, but they’re nowhere near the level of the Cowboys’ clown show (-23.0; NFL-worst). Don’t expect any miracles from a volume-dependent receiver like Andre Johnson.

Speaking of Jerrah’s spectacular smoke-and-mirrors show, it’s no coincidence that the Cowboys’ four wins have come against run defenses graded in the bottom-half of the league, including the Saints (17th), Rams (23rd), Texans (28th), and Titans (29th). They lost to the 49ers (5th-best run defense) and now face the Seahawks (7th) on the road, where Dallas’ delicate tightrope act will lose its balance. Seattle doesn’t run many plays anyway (61 per game; 24th), and their offensive weapons should be deployed as you typically would. The 47.5 over/under is actually tied for the fourth-highest this week, so it’d be tough to fade this game even if there was good reason to.
Click to expand...
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/10/08/snaps-pace-stats-week-6/

assuming the Colts control the ball for most of the game, I'd lean unders for most Texans offensive players and Colts defensive players and vice versa.
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I grabbed a Jonhson under at 5.5 at -115 at my local, most books hwoever have at -140-155 tho and didnt want to lay that much

 
mquinnjr said:
ChainsawU said:
@RonFromLasVegas

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS GUARDS JACK MEWHORT & HUGH THORNTON BOTH OUT TONIGHT:AND WHY ANY ONE WOULD BACK LUCK WITH J .J WATT IN GAME

@HouseOfHouston

I smell a Tex-tastic game out of J.J. Watt -- key o-linemen Jack Mewhort & Hugh Thornton are out making it easier to get to Luck!

@zkeefer

#Colts will be without both starting guards (Hugh Thornton/Jack Mewhort) Thursday. JJ Watt must be licking his chops

Not surprisingly, over 80% of the $ at SBR has come in on Houston.
Click to expand...
Any chance Colts backers get the hook by kick off? Colts +3 at +105 sounds like we're getting close.
Click to expand...
Colts are favored.

 
I played these:

Tackles (most at 5d):

1u Jackson U8.5 (-125)
1u Freeman U8.5 (-105)
.5u Cushing O7.5 (-135)
.5u Joseph O4.5 (-125)
.3u Watt O5.5 (+135)
.5u Watt O5 (-115) - at BV and Sportsbetting

RB:

Fitzpatrick U227.5 yards (-120)

A.Johnson U63.5 (-120)

D.Hopkins O61.5 (-115)

5D:

D.Hopkins O4.5 rec (-110)

also played a little on:

Wayne, Hilton overs (rec, rec yds)

Allen Yes TD (+175)

Foster O2.5 rec (-135), O20.5 rec yds (+115)

 
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jamil said:
mquinnjr said:
ChainsawU said:
@RonFromLasVegas

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS GUARDS JACK MEWHORT & HUGH THORNTON BOTH OUT TONIGHT:AND WHY ANY ONE WOULD BACK LUCK WITH J .J WATT IN GAME

@HouseOfHouston

I smell a Tex-tastic game out of J.J. Watt -- key o-linemen Jack Mewhort & Hugh Thornton are out making it easier to get to Luck!

@zkeefer

#Colts will be without both starting guards (Hugh Thornton/Jack Mewhort) Thursday. JJ Watt must be licking his chops

Not surprisingly, over 80% of the $ at SBR has come in on Houston.
Click to expand...
Any chance Colts backers get the hook by kick off? Colts +3 at +105 sounds like we're getting close.
Click to expand...
Colts are favored.
Click to expand...
:bag: sorry, sign other way.

 
Hilton sure has torched Houston in his 4 games

Code: 
WR T. Hilton	Dec 15 13	IND(h)	W 25-3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	78	9.75	0	7.8WR T. Hilton	Nov 3 13	IND(a)	W 27-24	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	121	17.29	3	30.1WR T. Hilton	Dec 30 12	IND(h)	W 28-16	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	4	111	27.75	1	17.1WR T. Hilton	Dec 16 12	IND(a)	L 17-29	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3	78	26.00	1	13.8
 
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